AFL Preview Round 18
Last Week 5 from 8 = 103/136 =75.7%
There were three games last weekend that had only a kick in it at the end. The result could have gone either way. The preview tip of Geelong beating Hawthorn was a lucky one with Bartel’s kick after the siren deciding the tipping point there. Not so lucky was Essendon who came home like a steam train in the last 3 minutes to almost steal the game from the Tigers. But I think there would not have been many tipsters at the top end of their competitions who would have picked that one. Should have stuck with the favourites Freo in the derby but again it was only a kick in it although Fremantle looked winners half way through that quarter. What a shocker of a game of football standard wise. A clear indication of where those two teams sit on the ladder. There will be a few more years of pain in the west for supporters of Fremantle and West Coast. The selection of mine to pick the Bulldogs ahead of the Saints was a shocker. Hope you ignored it. Dennis Cometti made the comment that this season there was a huge difference between a good game of footy and a bad game of footy. We have been spoiled by some of the great games this year but there is a cavernous gap between the top 3 or 4 teams to the rest of them.
Most of the papers have been filled with coaching news and the Buckley Malthouse partnership at Collingwood, now established, is a strange one. Most of us are trying to work out how this coaching team will function next season but maybe in 3 years time, should Collingwood taste success with a premiership, we will look back on it and think that it might be the way for teams to go in the future in their coaching structures. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
Tanking within bottom teams continues to get aired but I’m with Demetriou on this one. A crock!!
With 5 rounds to go the top four teams need to establish themselves with a sort of a buffer between them and the next four who will be scratching and clawing their way through games to maintain a chance of playing in September. Well, teams 3 to 5 actually because the top two teams are set in concrete. There are some interesting games to consider again this week with easy choices mixed with trying to choose the best of the worst and then picking winners from matches in which the two teams are on almost equal footing. For the tipsters who at this stage are in the leading group in your comp caution is the key word. There is no need to pick flamboyantly because that will be done by those crazy tipsters who need to make up ground. There could be some upsets, there will be some upsets, but steady as she goes is a good strategy if you have a 3 to 5 point gap on the wannabes!!! As I am leading 3 tipping comps now I will be picking carefully but I will be giving readers some hints on having a bit of a gamble on a long shot, so to speak. Enjoy, and good luck.
North Melbourne V Carlton at Telstra Friday night
Fortunately the Blues were shambolic last week. 4 goals 16 they kicked!! Or were allowed to kick. Ratten somehow has to get Carlton back in a winning frame of mind after last week’s debacle against the Pies because another performance like that will see North Melbourne run over them, Buckley or no Buckley. Hey I wonder how Dazza Crocker feels in his position as coach of North after knowing that North were chasing Bucks and didn’t really want him? Hope he’s applied for the coaching job at Richmond. I’m tipping Carlton to get back to the winning list in this game but tipsters in no-man’s land could do worse than pick North for the upset.
Carlton by 15
Western Bulldogs V Fremantle at Telstra Saturday
The Bullies were absolutely smashed by the Saints last week but their worst is 10 goals better than Freo’s best. This will be a one sided game after an initial flurry by the Dorks.
Western Bulldogs by 55
Geelong V Adelaide at Skilled Saturday
The Crows mauled their sister side last week, as predicted. Adelaide kicked the sweep and showed their resilience in that win after being humiliated by the Saints the week before. But humiliation at the hands of St Kilda is no big deal for most sides this year and it shows just where the Crows are in relation to the top two sides. Uh oh! It’s that other top two side this week. The Cats might be a bit drained after that epic last kick win against the Hawks last week but maybe that’s what they needed to get their game back in focus. Geelong still has a 3 game buffer between themselves and 3rd position so it’s only their motivation that might be questioned. For the Crows it’s an absolute must to continue winning else the likes of Brisbane or Carlton might push them into 5th or 6th, a tough spot from which to play finals successfully. I think this will be a difficult contract for Geelong to win and it’s really only because the game is at Skilled that I am leaning towards them. This is another game that could possibly lighten the hearts of the middle of the competition road tipsters.
Geelong by 16
Sydney V St Kilda at SCG Saturday night
I believe I saw a quote from Roos saying that he is looking forward to the challenge of his team playing the Saints. Why? St Kilda might be a bit down again after beating off another challenge from a top 4 team but, as down as they are, they surely won’t drop a game against the struggling Swans? No.
St Kilda by 39
Collingwood V Brisbane at MCG Saturday night
This should be a terrific game with a whole feast of stars in both sides. Simon Black plays his 250th game for the Brisbane Lions and that might be enough to help motivate his side to win what should be a tough one against the Pies. Didak, Davis and Medhurst are in form or as is the case with the last mentioned, finding form, and Swan is carving them up through the middle of the ground week after week. Jonathon Brown kicked 8 last week and Rich and Black love feeding the big guy. Can Presti hold him? Has the coaching decision last week help settle Collingwood? It certainly settled the press. Again, have to say it but it’s no good sitting there hoping your team will lose to satisfy a tipping point. The Pies are good enough to win the game and should.
Collingwood by 17
Melbourne V Richmond at MCG Sunday
Yikes! The Tigers could win two games in a row, three if you count the draw as a win!! This is a battle of the cellar dwellers who are both showing signs of improvement. Enough improvement to perhaps keep Rawlings in a coaching job next year and of course the Demons will retain Bailey. Last time these two teams met the Demons notched their first win of the season but I think the improvement in the Tigers and a smaller injury list might be enough to get them over the line this time around. Rumour has it that Richo is back in the twos this weekend so look out Tiger supporters, your team may come flying home on the back of some great wins. Maybe.
Richmond by 26
Port Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Sunday
Remember the Jeckyll and Hyde personality of the Power? Might be enough reason to pick them to beat the Hawks at AAMI because Port was surely lamentable last week and it’s their turn to be commendable. Funny game footy because the Power still seem to have a chance of making the finals and boy, would that be a miscarriage of justice regarding the reward system? Hawthorn has shown a bit of form lately, touching up the Maggies and almost beating the Cats, again. They should have far too much talent for the spasmodic Port but will they have the motivation? The game is at AAMI so there is some doubt.
Hawthorn by 19
West Coast Eagles V Essendon at Subiaco Sunday
The Eagles are abysmal. Having said that they come up against a Bomber side who really should not have allowed the Tigers to toss them last week. No Lloyd for Essendon this week although his form has been patchy so that might not be a real loss. I’m thinking that the Eagles without Matera, Cousins, Worsfold, Sumich, Kerr, Judd, Cox, Mainwaring, McKenna and Kemp don’t stand a chance.
Essendon by 27
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