AFL Preview Round 15
Last Week 7 from 8 = 85/104 =82%
My previews have been one stupid decision away from perfect 8’s 4 weeks in a row! I am 5 ahead in a $50 a head tipping comp but should be 9 ahead and reaching for the cheque, running 2nd in a $22 competition and leading by 1 in a $25 competition. The pressure to keep this standard up is stressing me out! I just hope you tipsters have been following the previews although in some previous years I would not have made that recommendation so easily.
The anxiety bubble of not getting the St Kilda versus Geelong match telecast live was burst in good time and it was a hell of way to spend almost a whole Sunday I can tell you. I did something to my back on the Saturday night (keep your thoughts above your belts here please dear readers) so I didn’t even feel guilty sitting on the couch on the Sunday and I didn’t even feel my back while I watched the Saints battle it out with the Cats in what was one of the great games of football I have had the privilege to watch in a home and away part of the season. As all the reports stated, the game lived up to the hype. I turned over to the Fremantle versus Carlton game after watching such a great exhibition of AFL footy and honestly, it was like watching the reserves with regard to pace, pressure and skills. Fortunately the result was reasonably close and as a result kept the interest. The fact that this was going to be my 7th correct selection for the weekend also helped maintain interest. The difficult aspect of tipping this week is to take a real critical look at the teams Geelong and St Kilda are playing because there is bound to be a bit of a psychological downer for both these sides after their efforts last round. Well, the Saints are playing West Coast so that will be easy but Geelong come up against Brisbane at the Gabba and that selection is not so straight forward. As stated previously, when any of the teams in the ladder positions from 4th to 13th play each other then picking the winner is a combination of luck and skill. Eight weeks to go tipsters so if you’re not leading you’re not heeding!!
Weather in the Goldfields continues to be cold and wet which was enough to drive me to join a gym. Doing that can be compared to a Barry Hall brain snap I guess and it’s a little early to say whether it is going to make me feel better. I remember that funny story about that middle aged guy who joins a gym after years of sedentary inactivity and the gym instructor is a real hottie so to impress her he really digs in to do the exercises and after about the 5th day he is so stiff and sore that to brush his teeth he has to rest the brush on the side of the basin and bend down and move his mouth backwards and forwards across the toothbrush. It’s a pretty funny article and that’s where I thought I was heading after day one. Recovery is fine and going to the gym provides another excuse to sit in front of the TV and watch footy all weekend and even the Ashes cricket late into the night without a conscience digging at you to say get up and be active. Hey, I go to the gym 3 nights a week you tell it as you reach for another potato chip and a swig of your cold beer!! Enough of that, let’s move onto the previews.
Western Bulldogs V Collingwood at Telstra Friday night
Speaking of bursting bubbles......the Bulldogs flat smacked the Hawthorn aspiration bubble last week in no uncertain terms and based on that performance it’s more than likely they will burst the Magpie bubble this week. While Collingwood has won the last 6 in a row none of those teams are in the 8 so this will be a stern test. We know the Pies are probably good enough to beat the Bulldogs on a particular day and the bet for us tipsters is to work out whether this Friday night is the one. The Bullies really embarrassed the Hawks last week and Collingwood won just the second quarter against the Bombers and while we can all see that both teams are playing well you will also agree that the Western Bulldogs have a bit more talent around the ground. By crikey, I am expecting a close game and will be sorely disappointed if the Pies allow a blow out in the score. I will NOT be disappointed if Collingwood somehow thrashes the Bulldogs though. However, for the tip I have to recommend the favourite but it’s a tipping point I am happy to forego.
Western Bulldogs by 15
Sydney V Essendon at SCG Saturday
Now here’s a difficult game from which to pick a winner. Sydney was not impressive in their win against North Melbourne last week and Essendon lost just the one quarter against the Pies last week. I also think that Essendon has far more pace around the ground than the Swans. The SCG doesn’t worry the Bombers either with the wide wings assisting their style of play. In fact tipsters, I reckon the Bombers might just prevail here. Again, it should be a close game as Sydney rarely allow teams of relatively equal ability to kill them on the scoreboard. While Barry Hall may have been a problem with his temper, up forward, he was a target and brought a lot of the other Swans forwards into the game. O’Loughlin is well below his best which is understandable for a guy who has played 296 games and is looking at retiring at the end of the season. I hope this is not my stupid tip for the week but I’m going for Essendon in a close game. Look out for the draw.
Essendon by 5
Carlton V Richmond at the MCG Saturday
We shouldn’t expect a result as bad as we got the first time these teams met this year because Richmond has improved a bit while Carlton has had a reality check and probably won’t win the premiership this season after all!! But it is hard to find a reason or a way that the Tigers can find that extra 5 goals they would need to win this game. Judd, Gibbs, Carrazzo and Murphy shared 50 possessions between them in the last quarter against the Dockers last week and it is those players that will set up the win for the Blues again this week. It’s pointless me going on as I am not suggesting anybody tip the Tigers.
Carlton by 31
Brisbane Lions V Geelong at Gabba Saturday night
It’s a crazy person that tips against the Cats who lost their first game last week against the Saints since their grand final loss to the Hawks. Anybody look at the outs for Geelong this week after last week’s bruising encounter? Ling, Scarlett, Kelly and Milburn thank you very much. Now while this doesn’t necessarily hand the Lions the game on a platter it certainly adds a bit of sauce to the tip. How filthy would the Brisbane boys be after that pathetic last quarter against the Power last week and how lucky young Brennan was getting just a week for his Liverpool kiss? The pick of the first year top draft picks, young Rich, is the NAB Rising Star winner this year of that there is no doubt. And how tough is he after that hit he received from Chaplin? Well if the last tipping selection of Essendon wasn’t the stupid pick of the week then my tip in this game might be it.
Brisbane by 6
Adelaide V Fremantle at AAMI Saturday night
I am not tipping Fremantle. Sandilands is out injured as well so the Dockers are in for a shocker. Adelaide will win their 7th game in a row. Let’s see how close we get with the margin.
Adelaide Crows by 71
Hawthorn V North Melbourne at Aurora Sunday
Did you know that both these teams were finalists last year? It’s possible that neither will make the finals this year though. We are all looking at Hawthorn as last year’s premiers based on a great year with little injury concerns. They somehow got up and beat the hot favourites in the big game but Hawthorn are either suffering the biggest premiership hangover or they’re just not as good as we all thought. And North Melbourne? The sooner they merge with Melbourne the better honestly. The AFL might force that one because in 2011 we are looking at a 17 team competition so there is a bye every week. Anyway, back to 2009 and North Melbourne will struggle to win this game even with the Hawthorn form so poor. Jeff Kennett reckons they’ll win and who am I to buck that prediction?
Hawthorn by 29
Melbourne V Port Adelaide at MCG Sunday
I am very annoyed at pointing out the reason why I thought the Demons would win last week and then still advising you to pick the Weagles, a team whose way record is heading for just that – a record. Melbourne is up against a team that is as flaky in form as Sacha Baron Cohen in his latest sexcapade on the big screen as that Austrian male model Bruno and isn’t it fitting that the Power uniform is a fashion statement at times? Picking the Power to win away from AAMI is fraught with danger but the opposition is Melbourne and while they did all the hard stuff last week and won the game let’s face it the opposition was West Coast. What possible motivating reason can the players have thrust before them to make them do the one percenters two weeks in a row? Because I tell you, if they take the game up to Port they will probably win. I’m not convinced.
Port Adelaide by 19
West Coast Eagles V St Kilda at Subiaco Sunday
Seeing that the Saints remain the undefeated team of the season what would drive them to win this game against the hapless Eagles? The desire to remain undefeated for the whole season, that’s what. It’s not a matter of whether they will win or not, it’s a matter of by how much. I reckon that they will be pumped up early and set up a 50 point lead and then coast for a quarter and a half and win by 39. Margins aside, win they will.
Saints by 35
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