AFL PREVIEW ROUND 14
Last Week 7 from 8 = 78 / 104 = 75%
At last the big weekend of football has arrived. Two teams, unbeaten with 13 wins each, will face each other in the perfect conditions of the Telstra Dome. The game is a sell out and I have no plans to move away from the TV on Sunday so I can watch the game. My biggest fear is that all stations will telecast the Fremantle versus Carlton game and we end up with the big match on delayed telecast. Hope Foxtel is doing the telecast. Along with this game some of the other matches are also going to be tough picks and I can see a lucky few of us tipsters score 6 or 7 while others may scrape in with 3 or 4 tipping points. If ever there was a chance for a 3rd or 4th placed tipster just a few points off the pace to catch the leaders then this is the week to tip wisely….and with a whole lot of luck. Every nuance of change at clubs has to be bought into calculations like coaching changes, bad losses, close losses, good wins, close wins, imposed penalties for late night drinking, suspensions, fights with girlfriends, contract negotiations, rumours, superstitions, motivation and perhaps even the color of your undies on game day. Some players are playing for their careers, some are playing for their club glory, some are playing for their coach and some are playing because they love it. Tipsters, this week, you need to be mindful of all the gossip in clubs to find that magic bit of information that is going to help you pick correctly not 3 times but 8 times. Good luck.
Some commentary needs to be made on the Dockers over the top suspension of Dean Solomon. He’s allowed to stay in Melbourne to catch up with friends, so he does, with Mark McVeigh of Essendon, he doesn’t get drunk, he does stay up late and he does get to the compulsory training session. Ridiculous suspension and one they can ill afford. The Dorks just keep on keeping on! Naitanui’s last quarter for the Eagles against the Hawks last week was really something else! In particular when he was running away from a small defender, stuffed up the bounce of the ball, still beat the opposition player and tumbled through a goal. Had me rapt I tell you. I would even agree with Bruce on that one – it was ssspecccial! The local press has him favorite for the Brownlow which is taking it a bit too far and hopefully the hype around this kid doesn’t end up ruining his development.
We have a bit to cover in games so let’s see whom I can convince amongst the readers to stick with my tips.
Collingwood V Essendon at the MCG Friday Night
The previous match between these two teams really sticks in my craw when the Bombers kicked 3 goals in 3 minutes to snatch the game from the Pies. While Collingwood is progressing quite nicely one has to admit that Essendon are the real competition surprise along with the Brisbane Lions this season. The speed of the Bomber players in conjunction with their risky football provides us with an exciting spectacle when they play and it’s these facets of their game plan this year that will, again, be a real danger to the Magpies. Big ground, big crowd, big atmosphere and a big chance for Collingwood to consolidate or for Essendon to start scaring other teams in the bottom four of the top eight. I’ve gone overboard with a $5 lotto ticket bet on this one with Max so I may as well go all the way and tip the Pies but not confidently.
Collingwood by 11
Melbourne V West Coast Eagles MCG Saturday
I’m not one to crack jokes about cancer due to personal reasons but I can’t help but think that Jimmy Stynes’cancer is bad news for the Eagles as well. Teams can work motivation angles and Melbourne really needs some pushing to get them over the line to win their second game of football for the season. When you also look at the West Coast stat of losing their last 17 interstate matches notwithstanding their great win last week against the Hawks there is a need for tipsters to treat this game with caution. The Demons have really been woeful in their past 4 games being beaten easily so we would need a form reversal of gargantuan proportions to pick them this week, even against the Eagles. Cox and Kerr will be missing for West Coast but I think they are better up forward than the dysfunctional Melbourne forward line. This could be a draw and I am expecting a close game. With even less confidence than the previous tip it might be a rare Eagles away victory. Then again it might not.
West Coast by 6
Port Adelaide V Brisbane Lions AAMI Stadium Saturday
Chocko survived the axe and lives to coach another day. Hard to work out at Port Adelaide whether that is a good thing or a bad thing. I mean Williams has taken a pay cut more than most of us get paid in a year (good) but the Power still have him as coach (bad?). I don’t mind the guy actually but the form of his team this year has been frustrating to say the least. Win big and lose big. On the other hand the Lions have been very good and reasonably consistent. I am tentative in picking them because the game is at AAMI. I know, Port have lost there, much to the annoyance of their fans, those that turn up to watch anyway, but this isn’t Geelong or St Kilda they are playing at home, it’s Brisbane who have been good but not great. The fact that the Power has resolved its coaching question may be just the bit of extra oomph the team will need to win this game. I think this is another close call but when in doubt go for the home team.
Port Adelaide by 7
Richmond V Adelaide at Gold Coast Saturday Night
Did I hear right that Sheeds has put his hand up to coach the Tigers? As much as I admire Kev I think that would be a major mistake. Another mistake would be to even consider Richmond against the Crows who are really flying high. Adelaide is looking at their 6th win in a row and there is nothing I can see in the Richmond side that could make me believe it won’t happen. Amen.
Adelaide by 33
Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn Telstra Dome Saturday Night
If the Hawks really wanted to contest the finals they had better start winning games this week. Unfortunately they have come across the Western Bulldogs and while they were tested last week by the lowly North Melbourne I am sure the Bullies will find that extra bit to beat the Hawks and ensure they do not participate in September. Is it injuries this season or just a team suffering the premiership blues causing Hawthorn’s problems? Dunno but their problems are sure to continue after this game.
Western Bulldogs by 19
Sydney V North Melbourne SCG Sunday
Football news this week emanating from Sydney is very Barry Hall focused which tends to suggest that Barry is becoming bigger than the team. Too much attention on one guy and for what? A love tap to a Crow’s player that would have been joked about in the locker rooms in the 70’s but these days gets caught on camera and in slow motion is made to look really, really bad. Sydney may be using Barry to deflect attention from their lack of success and it’s fortunate that they play North this week who are having an even worse time. Mind you, the Shinboners played really well last week against the Bulldogs and almost pinched the game and I am certain that they might even do that this week against the Swans. Captain courageous for North, Harvs, will be even better this week after his first game back since that bone crunching chicken wing tackle so many weeks back. Don’t write North off here. They look better up forward than the Swans without Big Bad Barry and let’s face it, both teams are on a 4 game losing streak. When in doubt go for the home team again but another possible draw is likely and either team can win.
Sydney by 2
Fremantle V Carlton Subiaco Sunday
The fallout from Carlton’s abysmal loss to the Bombers last week has resulted in the dropping of a couple of veterans in Scotland and Stevens while at Freo Pavlich is out injured, that’s a big loss and Solomon has been stupidly omitted. Carlton are really only a mediocre side this year and can play poorly one week and nearly knock off the league leaders another week. I don’t think Freo have anyone good enough to control Judd who surely won’t put in two average performances in a row. The Dockers have really very little to play for while the Blues need to maintain pace with the rest of the hopeful September finalists as they cling to 8th spot on the ladder. NEWS FLASH: My worst nightmare has occurred. Foxtel just announced they will be telecasting the Fremantle Carlton match as part of their fabulous Sunday double along with the Sydney North Melbourne game and of course Kalgoorlie TV will be telecasting a WA team as well. Tears streaming down my face in frustration I’m tipping Carlton.
Carlton by 41
St Kilda V Geelong Telstra Dome Sunday
So here is the game of the millennium we’re told. Never before have two teams gone through to win 13 games undefeated and to meet in the 14th round. And in this day and age of technology we in WA will be forced to listen to the game on the radio just like we did in 1970 listening to the VFL on radio Australia on short wave radios in the north west. What a joke. Okay, let’s look at this game and compare some of the players. Apart from Steve Johnson for the Cats the Geelong forward line has been underperforming with Cam Mooney a bit out of sorts. Against a very mean Saints back line the Geelong forwards will need to perform at their best to kick a winning score. In the centre of the ground we have some real class for both sides. Ablett, Corey, Bartel against Montagna, Del Santo and Hayes and for the Cats Selwood and Ling up against the Saints’ Ball and Jones. Then up forward for St Kilda they have Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Milne battling Scarlett and Taylor. Ha, should be a bloody great game and hopefully we won’t be disappointed. So who will win? Do the Saints want to make a statement about their real premiership chances or will Geelong, still bitter about that GF loss against the Hawks last year, show the Saints just how good they will need to be to play them on that last Saturday in September? And will the radio commentators be good enough to create the atmosphere of a great game to us poor Western Australians who have been once again shafted by the TV broadcasters? An in form backline and a better performing forward line for the Saints in the past few weeks has me leaning towards them. Of one thing I am certain, after this game there will be only one team undefeated unless, god forbid, it’s a draw. Highly likely too.
St Kilda by 7
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