AFL PREVIEW ROUND 16
Last Week 6 from 8 = 91 / 120 = 75.8%
Not a bad tipping effort last week scoring 6. I would have been happy with 7 but for Melbourne who is finding some end of season form for no other reason than to upset tipsters while I was overjoyed with the Collingwood win even though I got the tip wrong. Looking at my tipping comps a score of 6 was pretty handy. As we get to the end of the season the tipping gets harder because of the tanking and now the “reverse” tanking which apparently Geelong perpetrated against the Brisbane Lions last week. Whatever it was that the Pussycats did to lose the game I tipped Brisbane correctly which is all that matters.
The Ladder is still a bit of a mess after Geelong and the Saints at one and two and now the excitement is really mounting with an equally fascinating race for the Wooden Spoon….not! With the Fremantle Dorks opting for unbridled youth a handy bet at the TAB is $10 on them winning that bottom prize and perhaps some better draft picks to help win that elusive premiership in 2013. Nostradamus eat your heart out with that prediction. As we progress into these last 7 – 8 games be prepared for some form reversals as the motivation to play on in September for teams will become the major focus. Western Bulldogs, Adelaide and Collingwood have a reasonably hard month coming up and will need to continue on their winning way to hold off the rabble beneath them. Thank heavens for West Coast when they play away, the Dorks when they try to play football and Melbourne and North when they turn up against higher placed teams as the selection is a simple one. There are some tough choices this week again and luck has been with me so far. Let’s see what we can conjure up this week. Good luck!
Essendon V Western Bulldogs Telstra Dome Friday Night
I selected both of these teams last week and I was only 2 points away from glory. The Bombers are playing well and with confidence but then again so are the Bullies and across the ground they have a wealth of experience and talent to call on if Essendon gets too cheeky. Eade has not been offered the coaching continuation with the Bulldogs yet and they can ill afford to lose this with the Crows and Magpies hot on their heels. And they won’t.
Western Bulldogs by 33
Carlton V Sydney Telstra Saturday
This is one of the tougher games to predict because Carlton isn’t that good and Sydney ain’t that bad. The selection of the winner here will be based on who has the motivation this week. Sydney was well beaten last week by the Bombers and Carlton struggled against an ever improving Richmond outfit. The game is at Telstra Dome and that is an advantage for the Bluebaggers. Well, advantage enough to lightly pencil them in to win the game. But it will be a lot closer than they hope.
Carlton by 13
Geelong V Melbourne at Skilled Saturday
The following sentence I write below would have been a great story line for the Outer Limits (an old Sci Fi program) a few weeks ago:
These two teams have had opposite form over the past couple of games with Geelong losing its last two and Melbourne winning its past two games!
There, it’s done. Demon supporters need to cut and paste that into some sort of scrap book of memorabilia for the great, great grandkids to read lest no-one believes the tale! This should be an interesting game with one team tanking and the other team reverse tanking, probably nullifying each other’s negative efforts to create a good game of footy. An easy pick that I won’t have to refer to the think tank though!
Geelong by 41
Fremantle V Brisbane at Subiaco Saturday Night
What was the beef about last week’s effort by the Dorks? Mark Harvey addressed the Fremantle Dockers at the start of last week with 1 goal in mind. Needless to say they achieved it! (Thanks to Cookey from WA for that one.) The only decision I need to make here is whether I pick the Lions to kick the sweep or not. Tipsters, you know what usually happens in these so-called one sided games based on previous form? The underdog, conscience pricked to the max and needing to restore some pride, pulls out a performance of a lifetime, or season, and wins the game, throwing tipsters into a frenzy of wailing, beating the chest and gnashing of teeth. We all know Fremantle will do a lot better than last week but remember, if they do even twice as good as last week then that’s only 4 goals 2. Not enough. In today’s WA paper there was a comment about the Dockers getting only a 6 day break between games. A break from what because they didn’t really play 6 days ago did they? Or do they mean a 6 day break from insulting press comments? That must be it.
Brisbane by 55
Collingwood V Hawthorn MCG Saturday Night
This is definitely the game of the round and the Hawks have had the wood on the Pies for a few seasons now. Hawthorn found a bit of form in a really tough game against North Melbourne in Tassie last week just getting out with the 4 points. By the way, anyone notice the Tasmanian weather or did you, like me , think there were transmission problems with that snowy television screen which was, in fact, torrential rain and hail? The Hawks need to win to maintain their impetus to play finals this year and Collingwood needs to win to keep the pressure on the Bulldogs and Adelaide for that important 4th position. I underestimated the Magpies last week and this week I am prepared to lose the tip again because with every win, and they have had 7 in a row, looms the larger chance of a loss. Presti has to keep Buddy to no more than 2 goals but who do we have for Roughead? It’s just a feeling in my water but Hawthorn may have turned a corner last week and it’s a matter of them not tiring too much after that slog against North on Sunday. Actually, I’ve just changed my mind. I hate sitting there hoping my team will lose to get the tip right. Go Pies.
Collingwood by 19
Port Adelaide V West Coast Eagles at AAMI Sunday
Port Adelaide’s form is a joke. However, West Coast’s form is an even bigger joke and they are playing away. I gave them a chance and tipped them to break the away from home losing streak against the lowly Demons and they let me down. The lowly Demons beat the powerless Port last week so if we are trying to pick this game on form the best bet may be a draw. Surely we have to have a draw this year? The game is at AAMI and in my wildest dreams I can’t see the over possessing Eagles win this game.
Port Adelaide by 5
Richmond V North Melbourne at MCG Sunday
This game is part of that fascinating duel for the Wooden Spoon that has evolved over the past few rounds. It would be fitting for these two teams to draw as well. When was the last time we had two draws in the one round? Honestly I have no idea which team will win this game and wouldn’t it be nice if we could arrange a tipping competition in which a game of no consequence attracted only a half or a quarter of point as opposed to a “blockbuster”? Richmond and North Melbourne are two teams that can be compared to a bus parking lot in a seaside tourist resort after a tsunami announcement – coachless. They are attracting more interest with regard to just who will be appointed coach rather than what their chances are this year in winning more than 4 or 5 games. The current caretaker coach at North, Darren Crocker, has intimated he would consider Carey as an assistant coach. One can only hope that Dazza doesn’t have a gorgeous wife. Low blow, sorry. Wayne Carey was really a magnificent footballer and we can only hope that he is remembered for that rather than his distasteful off field activities. Back to Richmond – rumour has it that Richo is due back as well but….. I still have no clue as to which team will win this match. If they both start tanking we could see a scoreline with both teams kicking a score similar to the Dorks last week. Because of a tough game against Hawthorn in atrocious conditions I will opt for Richmond to prevail.
Richmond by 11
St Kilda V Adelaide Crows Telstra Dome Sunday
This is certainly the game of the round no doubt about that (as opposed to the Collingwood Hawthorn game which was the match of the round before I came across this one!!). Adelaide is on a marvelous roll looking for their 8th consecutive win. Compare that to St Kilda who is going for….for…oh yeah, their 16th consecutive win!! The Saints are, unfortunately, suffering a bit of tiredness and are definitely on a low circadian cycle which makes them a target for a team like the Crows to take advantage. But let’s not kid ourselves here dear tipster. There still remains a significant gap between Geelong and St Kilda compared to the rest of the teams below them. As I said last week the motivational drive for the Saints will be their desire to win every game but as the season progresses to the end few games this target becomes harder and harder. While the Saints had to shake themselves out of lethargy last week against the Eagles the Crows had a training run against the Dockers so Adelaide will be as fresh as a team just starting the season after a practice match. But the game is at the Dome, the Saints are the home team and it’s time to shut up a few Crows supporters who are getting starry eyed at the unexpected success of their team. Knock! Knock! Who’s there? Wendy. Wendy who? Oh Wendy Saints, go marching in…….
St Kilda by 29
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