[AFL-Preview] Round 17

AFL PREVIEW ROUND 17
Last Week 6 from 8 = 97 / 128 =78.1%
 
Are you following the previews this season? Even the greatest skeptic will admit that they are going swimmingly well this year and even in the round 16 previews there was a last second change of the mind in the Collingwood Hawthorn game costing us a point and then just a lack of bravery in actually selecting a draw on the tipping sheet for the North Melbourne Richmond game was another point gone. Most tipping comps gave us the draw so we have picked 7 point results 5 weeks in a row. Consistency!
This week will be a test as we have 6 of the 8 teams in the top half of the ladder playing each other, a phenomenon best described as blocks of busters. This is such a mouth-watering event that my sons have booked a wicked weekend of footy and are flying to Melbourne on Thursday to see the Pies take on the Blues at the MCG on the Friday night, back to the G the following day to watch a replay of last year's grand final between Geelong and Hawthorn, then taking some respite at a local pub before gathering their strength to amble down to the Dome and watch St Kilda try to break more records in consecutive wins when they take on the Western Bulldogs and then on the Sunday easing down a bit to see just how long the Tigers can last against the Bombers at the MCG! As the weekend will contain no WAGs, something the Australian cricket team should consider, their concentration level will not be disrupted. One can only hope that a Collingwood victory in the first game will keep their spirits up. Other games in the round this week will see the state derbies in South and Western Australia. Far be it for me that I dare make comment on the Crows and their supporters this week and raise their ire about being starry eyed although I am tempted to clarify to them that pre-season Adelaide did not figure in top four calculations amongst the 'experts' and their 7 wins in the past 8 weeks has worked towards applying a bit of glaze to the oculars, a fact that most should admit.
Last word on tanking? It's basically a crock. If anyone can verify that a team of players, in an elite competition, can go out and try to lose a game, or not try hard enough to win, then I will give up my support of Aussie rules. If a coach's future and that of each player depends on their weekly performance why would you jeopardize any of that with a deliberate strategy of trying to lose a game? And when you get two teams playing each other and who are trying to lose a game would anybody turn up? Would you support that team in the future? Utter rubbish is tanking and the whole concept. In ful agreement with Harvey at the Dockers, it's an insult.
I am in Perth this week and the weather is almost as bad as what we are experiencing in Kal. However, the traffic is mind boggling and a great reminder why stress is less in country towns. Let's go with our preview and good luck.
 
Carlton V Collingwood MCG Friday Night
 
Traditional rivalry doesn't come much stronger than this game at the MCG to open the 17^th round on Friday night. Carlton had an impressive last quarter win against the Swans last week while the Pies were killed in the second half against the Hawks. Can Collingwood come back and play with the form they showed in the previous 7 weeks? Although the Blues have won they haven't done it convincingly and not against higher placed opposition. Fraser remains a big loss to the Pies and the continuing uncertainty in the coaching may be a destabilizing factor as well. But really, if Collingwood are to be considered as genuine final 4 contenders then these are the games they need to win. Carlton has not been as consistent over the season which has been a great cause of frustration to their supporters and to us tipsters as well. I hate starting the tipping off with a loss but it's a possibility because for reasons that go back a hundred years Carlton always seem to put on their party dress for the game against traditional rivals Collingwood. Expect a close, hard fought game but I'm tipping the Pies to get back into the winning circle and there's NO way I could sit there and barrack for the Blues!!
 
Collingwood by 19
 
Geelong V Hawthorn at MCG Saturday
 
There is a lot of similarity in this game and the grand final last September…. apart from the fact that it's the same two teams. Hawthorn will need to play at their very best to beat the Cats who, while not in scintillating form, are still a yardstick for other teams in terms of winning games. The Pussycats must have recovered from their shock loss to the Saints by now and all the sore kittens have been rested adequately, the team had an easy one quarter win against the Demons last week after a pathetic loss to the Lions the week before. All is ready for a knock 'em out drag 'em out tussle against the Hawks. Hawthorn has a lot more to play for – like an appearance in the finals this year – while the Cats are basically guaranteed second spot on the ladder come season end. But if I was a Geelong player the agony of the loss to Hawthorn last year would take a few years to get over and knocking them off this week to make their job even harder to get into the finals would be enough incentive. Here's hoping.
 
Geelong by 21
 
Fremantle V West Coast Subiaco Saturday
 
There are a lot of smiling faces in the west this week because supporters of the Dockers and the Eagles just know that their team has a great chance of winning a game!! Dork supporters will be out in force in a blaze of purple to be there to see the end of a 9 game losing streak while West Coast supporters just know that their team is the better of the two if they could just drop their handball count by about 190 per game. Which team will make the least mistakes? Bill this game as the battle of the clangers!! The team who clangs least will win. The weather will not help this contest to be a spectacle of first class, skilful footy but the relative positions of both teams on the ladder will ensure a close game. With Pavlich and Sandilands returning for Freo and Cox and Kerr still out for the Eagles I am inclined to pick the Dorks to break through for a much needed win. Another consideration is the Eagles played away last week and the Dockers are playing their second in a row at home. Can we score another draw in the AFL two weeks in a row? It's possible. For no sane reason I'm picking West Coast.
 
West Coast Eagles by 6
 
Brisbane Lions V North Melbourne Gabba Saturday Night
 
My heart goes out to North last week who almost stole the game from the Tigers after being down by 7 goals at one stage. No it doesn't – just joking. While I tip my hat to the continued efforts of North week after week I would find it hard to tip them to win this game against the Lions playing at the Gabba. It's just this sort of back against the wall scenario that brings the fight out of North Melbourne but I don't think Vossy would be happy to see Brisbane drop such an important game in their quest to play finals this year. If you are desperate to make up a point in the tipping comp you might be tempted to tick the box next to North. Don't.
 
Brisbane by 29
 
St Kilda V Western Bulldogs Telstra Dome Saturday Night
 
Another week and another would- be contender about to ask the question of the Saints. Can they continue this winning streak right through the season? The Bulldogs lost a close one to Collingwood a couple of weeks ago and they pushed Geelong to the limit a few weeks before that so we know they have the talent. Will they have what it takes though on Saturday night at Etihad to take it right up to the Saints? Aren't all we tipsters just waiting for the moment to pick against the Saints because we KNOW that they will lose a game at least once in the season? Is it worth the chance to pick this game as the one? They were far too good for the Crows last week and I even read the tips from experts who thought Adelaide would beat the Saints, inflicting their first defeat. But we knew better. Will the suspensions of Koschitzke and Dawson throw the St Kilda team balance out enough to help the Bulldogs pip them at the post? Eade knows he has to get the Bulldogs up for this game because there are 3 teams just below them that are vying for their position and those 3 teams have every chance of winning this weekend. Have I talked this up enough? Can the Saints drop a game after 16 wins in a row? Is their motivation to remain undefeated enough to keep the success hungry Doggies at bay? With the game being played in perfect conditions expect a game of high skill and ferocious tackling to titivate (cross between titillate and captivate) your senses. In the face of sane judgment I am tipping the Bulldogs to pull a killer game out of the hat. Don't miss it.
 
Western Bulldogs by 7
 
Melbourne V Sydney Manuka Oval Sunday
 
Swans' fans don't want to see them lose any more games and Melbourne fans are also sick of watching their team get beaten every week, hence the game is scheduled for Manuka where nobody really cares either way as long as AFL gets some exposure in Canberra. Everybody agrees that Sydney will not make the finals this year for the first time in 6 or 7 seasons but winning this game will put them in a mathematically possible position to still make the top 8. There is a strong possibility that Melbourne just might embarrass them but picking the Demons is not a safe bet any week.
 
Sydney Swans by 11
 
Essendon V Richmond MCG Sunday
 
For reasons best known only to my dog I picked the Tigers last week and while they didn't let me down they didn't get me up either. If Richmond adopts the tactic of stopping completely in a quarter and a half of football then Essendon will beat them by 50 points. Well, I'm reckoning the Bombers will beat them anyway. Bring back Richo, bring back Cousins, bring back Wallace.
 
Essendon by 29
 
Adelaide V Port Adelaide Sunday
 
The Crows were really brought back to earth with a thud last week when they dared to challenge the might of the Saints. This week it will be a totally different story. Adelaide is a far better team than the Power could hope to be and I expect to see the Crows to get back to the winning table with a resounding victory over their home state enemy. Watching Port last week touch up the Eagles did nothing to make me enthusiastic about their chances of going into the finals this year with much confidence. When a team like the Crows applies defensive pressure to the Power forwards the scoreboard will show about 10 goals less than they kicked, or were allowed to kick, against West Coast. Tipsters, no reason to spend any more time on this one as Port will be powerless against the Crows.
 
Adelaide by 42

 ---------------------------------------------------------------

The AFL Preview is sent via an automatic email list. To join or leave the list is easy.

Please visit our website at http://www.footy.com.au/fts/newsletters.htm

OR

If you have difficulty with the above please email lists@footy.com.au