[AFL-Preview] Round 8

AFL PREVIEW ROUND 8

(Last week 5 / 8 Total 39 from 56 = 69.6%)
 
I suppose tipsters all around the country had the new Federal budget worries wiped from their minds as the unbelievable results of football games on Friday and Saturday unfolded and proved disastrous. Essendon beat the Hawks, North Melbourne beat Port Adelaide and the Dockers knocked off the Blues. After the first quarter of the Richmond versus Brisbane game last week I had the tipsters emergency razor blade poised over the wrist and while I did not complete the manoeuvre I had the darn thing out again until the end of the third quarter of the Bulldogs versus Crows game and kept it handy as the Demons took it up to the Eagles!! Was it round 7 last season that provided similar results? I tell you, I am getting closer to completely avoiding future tipping competitions......soon. 5 from 8 didn't turn out too bad and certainly anybody that scored 6 or better either knew nothing about the game or if they did follow the code were so far behind the rest of the tipsters in their comp that they simply guessed!

Just to titillate you there are a couple of games this week that will prove very hard to pick a winner from based on form.

Most of the sporting news, albeit negative news, centred on rugby this week and the Craig Johns sex scandal. No comment. Happiness abounds here in the west with both teams winning on the weekend and Byron Schammer escaping a week's holiday for striking, Terry Wallace moving another week closer to joining the ranks of the unemployed, Collingwood becoming another St Kilda wreck statistic and the AFL ladder shows that there is only 1 game between 3^rd and 14^th. Can we assume this early in the season that St Kilda will play the Cats in the grand final? Which other team will emerge from the pile to make up the top 4 positions? Can Freo actually make the 8 after such an ignominious start to the season? All will be revealed in the ensuing weeks. Good luck trying to tip winners in games between any of those 12 teams on 4 or 3 wins.

PS – thanks to the reader who picked up my error in the number of games the Cats won last year and the reader who told me just how many grand finals the Demons played in since 1964. It's comforting to know that the preview actually gets read.

This will be the last preview written from Perth as yours truly moves to the goldfields on Monday to take up a new post.  Cheers and good luck in your tips.
 

Fremantle Dockers V Hawthorn at Subiaco Friday night

Here's the first of the tough games to pick but those of you who do read the preview know that I have said I would not pick the Dockers again. Okay, I will review that as a hasty decision as it has cost me 3 tipping points in 3 weeks. Freo actually have a chance to win this game with the Hawks copping more injuries to key players. Luke Hodge is out for a couple of weeks on top of Bateman and a pack of others that are sitting on the sidelines with assorted injuries. However the Hawks still have a potent forward line with Roughead and Buddy and just those two can make you waver in this tipping decision. I don't know about you tipsters but I am finding it hard to even consider that the Dockers can win 4 in a row! I have the feeling that if I suddenly jumped on board the Freo ship they will throw out the anchor. With great misgivings, and in what should be a close game, I am sticking with the Hawks to find a bit of form.

Hawthorn by 21
 

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs at the MCG Saturday

The only exciting aspect of the game the Dees played last week was the closeness of the scores in the last few minutes. The footy was not inspiring. Conversely the Bulldogs played a mighty attractive game against the Crows last week in that third quarter and the rekindling of their early season form should be a warning to other teams who want that 3rd place on the ladder. The Demons are definitely a work in progress but turnovers from skill errors hurt them and to make these errors against the Doggies will kill them. If the weather is fine expect a big score from the Bulldogs and in any event expect a good win from them.

Western Bulldogs by 66
 

Geelong V North Melbourne at Skilled Saturday

North has a snowball's chance in hell – none.

Geelong by 53
 

Brisbane Lions V Adelaide at the Gabba Saturday night

This game is the toughest one to pick. The Crows have shown enough to suggest they can win this game, even if it's being played at the Gabba in front of the adoring Lion fans. But it will be a tough ask. The Bulldogs cut the Crows to pieces last week but let's not begin to think that Brisbane is as good a team as the Bulldogs. Craig has a way of getting his charges up for crucial games and with Andrew Macleod about to break the all time playing record for an Adelaide player the boys might want to put a good game together. There has to be an upset this week and for reasons I can't really pinpoint I am going to tip the Crows to win away from home. Whether they have the players that can put a stop to Brown and Bradshaw remains to be seen but these two will be the players they need to concentrate on and this will be harder without Bock in defence. Surprisingly Goodwin will play although I saw him on crutches after the game last week. I'm suggesting if the Crows can get their game together they can win this one. Either Brisbane will win in a canter or the game will go down to the wire in which case I will opt for Adelaide.

Adelaide Crows by 6


Sydney V West Coast Eagles at ANZ Stadium Saturday Night

The fact that the game is being played at the big Olympic ground will favour West Coast but honestly, this Eagles team cannot win away from home. I wonder if they will play Brent Staker on Barry Hall? Can you imagine the conversation as these two came toward each other before the bouncedown?

"G'Day Brent."

"Who are you?"

"Don't you remember me?"

"Nope!"

"You will."

The traditional rivalry between the two teams is what the AFL is hanging their publicity on but it's hard to see the game rising to the levels of those halcyon days. It's also hard to see the West Coast Eagles winning away from home.

Sydney by 38


Port Adelaide V Richmond at AAMI on Sunday

Try as they might the Tigers do not have a chance in this game. On top of that it's Port Adelaide's turn to reverse their form this week and win. Amen.

Port Adelaide by 41


Collingwood V Carlton at the MCG on Sunday

Oh yeah! The blockbuster! And there will be a crowd of 70,000 to watch these traditional rivals fight out what should be a fascinating battle to see who can win their 4^th game of the year. Collingwood cannot kick enough goals if they go into this game without Medhurst, Davis and Jack in the goal box. It would be nice to see Didak back as well. Presti might be able to stop Fev but the Pies need another avenue to goal. Cloke has been cloaked and Rocca has been rocked. The Blues' march into the top 4 has been somewhat blocked with a couple of losses in a row, close, but not good enough. Are either of these teams good enough to be the one that fills the 4th spot at season's end? The publicity will call this a season-defining game. I have no idea who will win either. I think the Pies are good enough to win but not without the previously mentioned players being available. So, here's the tip – Carlton to win if the Pies front without Medhurst, Jack and Davis. Collingwood to win if they play. Selections for this game are not available at the time of going to press.

Carlton by 11


St Kilda V Essendon at Telstra Dome Sunday

The Saints are definitely marching in this year so far and like the German invasion of Europe the Bombers will present a small speed hump on the Saints' road to ultimate glory!! The Saints have a percentage of 200, have not lost a game, don't look like losing one and they can still make a change to bring Hudghton into the side! Go figure! The Saints beat the Bombers by 100 points last year and while I am not predicting a margin as big as that in this game based on the improvement of Essendon I think it will still be a big one. It's pointless to stall a tip here.

St Kilda by 88

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