AFL Preview Round 7
(Last week 7 correct so to date 34 from 48 = 70.8%)
I was pretty happy picking 7 winners last weekend but after looking at all the tipping comps around the nation the average was about 6 so the round must have been easy. Those Dockers let you down when they lose and you pick them to win and let you down again when they win and you pick them to lose. Inconsistency, the ghost that haunts the tipster!
Serious injuries continue to dog the competition this season thus far as we see another champion in Richardson for the Tigers cop a 12 week holiday if not a permanent break after tearing a hamstring tendon from his bottom. A bum rap you could call it. There goes their best player and along with him go their finals’ chances...not. All is not lost as Richo will be replaced by Ben Cousins. Read about it in every edition of the papers here in the west for the next 3 days!!
The Dorks lost Rhys Palmer for the season with a knee injury a couple of weeks ago and then lost Crowley last week for about 12 weeks with a foot injury. Not good the seriousness of some of these injuries.
The AFL team amalgamation debate is on the streets again with the proposal that North Melbourne and Melbourne join to make....wait for it...... Melbourne. Not being a Demons or Kangaroos supporter it’s easier to agree with the idea than if you were a follower of one of the clubs. Melbourne has had little success since 1964 when they beat Collingwood in the grand final and copped a thrashing in their only other GF appearance in the 80’s I think. No success at all must be hard for supporters to put up with year after year and with the introduction of another Brisbane team making the total number of teams in the competition uneven there is an argument for an amalgamation between these two teams. But maybe the same argument can be used for Richmond and St Kilda neither of whom have seen a lot of September action over the past 20 years. While it’s an emotional argument now in 25 – 30 years a whole new generation of supporters will have become used to following their “new” team. I remember Fitzroy and South Melbourne and no doubt some of the readers will as well but there won’t be a lot of us around in 25 years’ time so the memory will just be part of written club history. How many of the tipsters will be picking either Melbourne or North Melbourne this week in their selections? Mind you, both teams are a slim chance though.
NAB Rising Star this week is Stephen Hill from Freo. Take a look at the local rag about 4 weeks ago when the sports writers were taking Fremantle selectors to task over their pre-season draft selection of Hill instead of Rich who went to Brisbane. There’s that bloody consistency – or lack of it – again!!
There are a couple of tricky selections this week and you need to pay attention to some possibility of form turn arounds that might be possible for Richmond (highly unlikely), West Coast, Bulldogs, Melbourne and North Melbourne. Then the rest of the football world has an interminable wait as Melbourne has a public holiday, a day on which the Magpies will play the Saints and a game which will be telecast into our homes in the west at 8.30pm that night. Just wondering why that game couldn’t be televised live on one of the 7 or 10 HD channels? Good luck!
Essendon V Hawthorn at Telstra Dome Friday Night
As forecast in this preview last week it was stated that Lucas for the Bombers is long overdue for a forced rest. So be it. Speaking earlier of serious injuries, poor old Gadget Fletcher broke his leg in his 300th game last week and won’t be available to take on Roughead OR Buddy this Friday night in the Bomber’s game against an improving Hawthorn. Hmmm, the busted leg might be a godsend. Gee, tell me you are not seriously considering tipping Essendon? Good, neither am I.
Hawthorn by 59
Richmond V Brisbane Lions at MCG Saturday
The reason I am labelling this game as tricky is because Richmond did well against the Swans for most of the game last week and on the other side of the tipping scales can someone tell me how many away games the Brisbane Lions have won so far this season? Will the Tigers emerge from their rooms and play a blinder to show fans that there is life after Richo? Will Brisbane listen to their captain Jonathon Brown and win a game away from home? (When Browny has something to say you should be listening just out of fear don’t you think?) I honestly think the Tigers have a chance in this game but when you lose a target up forward the likes of Richardson you have to wonder where the Richmond goals are going to come from. At the other end the Lions have Brown and Bradshaw and a host of young runners that can kick a goal or two. What chance do the Tigers really have? No chance.
Brisbane by 22
Geelong V Sydney at Skilled Stadium Saturday
The Cats lost about 4 games last season. If they do the same this season you will only make 4 tipping errors. As much as I hate the saying – this ain’t rocket science.
Geelong by 29
Carlton V Fremantle on the Gold Coast Saturday Night
Here’s a game that highlights my love / hate relationship with both the teams playing. I loved the fact that Fev missed that goal last week because I tipped the Hawks. I hate the fact that the Dockers manufactured a complete form reversal last week in the second half against the Eagles and won the game costing me the perfect 8 and an $84 tipping jackpot for round 6 because I tipped the Pies to kick the sweep as well. I love the fact that the Dockers have won a couple of games because we all have a soft spot for the underdog. I hate seeing Juddy in Carlton colours – I don’t think the jumper goes with his personality or his style of footy. I love the fact that Carlton has lost three games this season so far after everyone thought they would be almost unbeatable. I hate that fact that after round 7 Carlton will have won 4.
Carlton by 39
North Melbourne V Port Adelaide at Telstra Dome Saturday Night
North should amalgamate as this would save me from tipping against them constantly. If they joined with Melbourne then that would save me tipping against two teams every week. Okay while Port isn’t really what I would call premiership material they are a lot closer than North to holding the GF Cup aloft in September. Has anybody noticed that Port is sitting third on the ladder, and by the way any positions above third are reserved for St Kilda or Geelong in 2009? North has an injury list that is the envy of no other club in the AFL and the cattle they have left to play the game aren’t really up to scratch yet. Laidley gets the best out of his charges, there’s no doubt about that, but the Power would have to play with their lights out to lose this game. Mind you, they have done that twice already this season so beware of a repeat powerless exhibition. This is another game for Chocko to put on his re-employment resume at the end of the season when he is happy to take a pay cut but stay in the coaching job.
Port Adelaide by 41
Adelaide V Western Bulldogs at AAMI on Sunday
I wrote about tricky selections in this round and this match is one of them. The Bulldogs are looking at a great start to the season slip sliding away unless they can apply the brakes and win this game against a young Adelaide side. The Crows have won as many games as the Western Bulldogs and I bet you didn’t know that until I just told you. As a football follower you know, deep down where you really live, that the Bullies are a far better team than the Crows but we will have to see some spirited play from them to change their fortunes. Rocket will be issuing rockets to try and get his team firing. The game is at AAMI so a one sided crowd will help Adelaide greatly but the constant booing of Akermanis will have a reverse effect. Player for player the Bulldogs are a much better side and I am tipping that they rise from the ashes of their last 6 games like a phoenix and account for the young Crows. It will be a struggle.
Western Bulldogs by 15
West Coast V Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday
Tipsters, if ever a team needed to give its supporters some hope for the season then it is the West Coast Eagles in this game against the cellar dwellers Melbourne. The Dees have been steadily improving, well, not losing by as much is what I mean, so if the Weagles think this is going to be a walk in the park then their supporters could get dirty because they will lose the game. There’s only one thing worse for the Eagles than losing to Freo one week and that’s losing to the Demons the following week.......and at home! Crikey though West Coast needs to do something about their forward line and there’s a statement that has been applicable to them for about 12 years! They should have had that game against the Dorks wrapped up by half time last week but for very average kicking. This week, just to confuse us all, West Coast will kick 17.11 to Melbourne’s 11.13. By the way, that score line just gave you the tip.
West Coast by 44
Collingwood V St Kilda at Telstra Monday
I usually am happy to tip against Collingwood because if they win I don’t mind getting the tip wrong. When I tip the Pies to win and they win I feel like I’m on a drug high (although I actually don’t really know what that’s like folks). Then there are the times that I tip Collingwood to lose and they lose. Happy to get the tip right but not happy about the result. So you see there are a number of scenarios that can apply to a tipster’s life and I’m thinking the third scenario is applicable for this match.
St Kilda by 21
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