AFL PREVIEW
ROUND 18 2008 SEASON
Preview Tipping to date: 91 from 136= 66.9%
There is very little one needs to say about the preview last week save to say that a record was broken in a chequered history of write ups when we recorded the lowest tipping score ever. Nuff said!!
I guess from the point of view of those tipsters who were perhaps 7 – 8 points behind there is always hope when you are prepared to go out on a limb, take a chance and tip to the extreme. A gain of some 3 – 4 points in one weekend of tipping would have been good for the soul. A score of 2 last week wasn’t bad while a score of 4 was close to the maximum possible if you were not on drugs. Again, results like that sow seeds of doubt into the selections for the following week. There is no science in this game and football is clearly played well by players that have the better attitude. To hell with form and injuries and sick coaches and old coaches and player retirements and no money in the team kitty and unhappy supporters!! Apart from picking the Cats every week feel free to do what you like as no hints will come from me. I will simply provide you with my selection and the reasons I went that way and while you foraged in abundant pastures for most of the 18 weeks to date it seems that the grass may well be greener over t’other side of the fence. Sadly, after last week I remain a bitter previewer.
Good Luck!
Collingwood V Hawthorn at MCG Friday Night
This is a clear case of the “old” style coach up against one of the upcoming new young breed of coach. Honestly, I don’t know how Robert Walls gets paid for some of the crap he writes. Looking at the different styles of play we have the over possession type against getting a kick into the forward zone quickly to unsettle the backs type. The Magpies revelled in Geelong over possessing the ball in that game and one which Collingwood won by 85 points. When a team continually handballs 7 or 8 times in a passage of play the opposition can put them under increasing pressure usually causing a turnover. Give me the older style of play it’s far less frustrating to watch. Having said all that it will be difficult for Collingwood to win this game even though both teams are not travelling well of late with consecutive losses in the past couple of games. True, Hawthorn lost against Geelong in a game they might have won – if they hadn’t over possessed while the Pies were embarrassed by Essendon. Collingwood needs to get out of the rut they are in and try to remain in the 8 because a loss here really puts them in a difficult position with so many teams in the mix for ladder positions 5 to 8. Having started last Friday’s tipping with a loss it’s worth the effort to remain consistent and try for the same result this week.
Collingwood by 21
Essendon V Melbourne at the MCG Saturday arvo
I’m not one to underestimate Essendon anymore and I certainly will not overestimate the Demons.
Essendon by 44
Adelaide V Carlton at AAMI Stadium
At the start of the season we were looking at the Blues to win early games because of the Judd factor but we didn’t really allow for an unfit Chris Judd to really have minimal impact on Carlton and hence some mixed results. Juddy has come good and Carlton is looking somewhat ominous in a late run to the finals. 6 weeks ago you wouldn’t have given this game a second thought as you pencilled in the Crows but they inexplicably dropped about 4 games in a row before their miraculous form reversal against the Sydney Swans last week giving their fans joy and us tipsters apoplexy! If Adelaide reverts to past form they may well lose this game placing Carlton on the verge of an unheard of and unimaginable top 8 position! May the football gods shine their light upon this competition and smite the Blues with a fumble stick! This game should be a nail biter.
Adelaide by 5
Geelong V Richmond at Telstra Dome Saturday Night
The Tigers are progressing very nicely - 10th on the ladder a mere half game out of the top 8. Who would have thought? Assuming everything is right in the universe and the alignment of the planets is as ordained for this time of the year one would have to assume that the Cats will put an end to the aspiring hopes of the Richmond team. Amen
Geelong by 41
North Melbourne V Brisbane at the Gabba Saturday Night
I just can’t seem to get my Brisbane tips right and I have the same problem with North Melbourne, the team, by the way, that gave me the solitary tipping point for last week. We continually ride roughshod over Laidley’s larrikins and dismiss the possibility that they might do as well as they did last year. I mean they did finish in the top 4 no? They seem to be the only team showing consistency in form even when it’s inconsistent! North Melbourne, dear tipsters, is sitting 5th on the darn ladder! They have won their last 3 games. The Brisbane Lions have lost 3 of their past 5 and you know what? I am going to tip them to win this one just to continue providing reality checks for the North Melbourne team who should not finish in the top 4 this year – but who still might. It’s another old coach versus a new coach as well and I say support the wrinklies. Expect another close game......maybe.
Brisbane Lions by 11
Western Bulldogs V Sydney at Manuka Oval Sunday Afternoon
The Western Bulldogs have lost their last two games. The Sydney Swans have lost 3 of their last 5 games so I guess I can safely say that neither team is bringing any form into this match. The Bullies hold their position on the ladder a lot more safely than the Sydney Swans do theirs so Roos will have to put a bit of desperation into the boys if they want to win this one. They are playing in Canberra where the morning temperature today was minus 3! It is expected to warm up during match day to a comfortable 9 degrees but that will provide cold comfort to the losing team on the day. I’m backing the Doggies to make a return to the winning list as Sydney seems to have a few injuries to key players, like Goodes. But I could be wrong – again.
Western Bulldogs by 23
St Kilda V Port Adelaide at Telstra Dome Sunday
I watched the Port Adelaide supporters leaving early again last week and thought I was at a Dockers game. Fortunately the Power supporters can elect to turn on the TV or turn it off after half time should their team be getting flogged. The Saints should enjoy another win after their shock loss to the West Coast Eagles last week. How many tipped that one? That form reversal cost the Saints their place in the 8 and they will be keen to make amends and depending on a couple of results in other games they should improve their ladder position. With Justin Koschitzke back in the team the Saints might even kick the sweep. I don’t expect the game to be close after half way through the second quarter and the Saints will have it wrapped up by midway through the third.
St Kilda by 55
Fremantle V West Coast at Subiaco
Both Western Australian teams won last week!! A minor miracle indeed and certainly a rare event in the 2008 season. The results however have made what would have been an easy pick a darn site harder and there is little separating the teams going into this game. Shaun McManus is retiring and maybe the Dorks will give him a welcome going away present. But, they have a few key players on the doubtful list and at the time of writing this preview Pavlich is not a certain starter. I know, he didn’t play last week and the Dockers beat Port Adelaide but for a derby things are different. West Coast captain Glass will return but like the Dorks the Eagles won without their captain – maybe that’s the problem? Anyway, I hope for Shaun’s sake Fremantle continues their winning streak because that guy is a gun, a player I greatly admire for his tenacity. All season Fremantle have played better footy than the Eagles so on form, and doesn’t that play a major part in our decision making – not, I will have to go for a sea of purple to wash over the West Coast with a big Whoooosshhh!!!
Fremantle by 29
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