[AFL-Preview] Round 17

 

2008 FOOTY TIPPING

AFL PREVIEW – ROUND 17

 

Preview tipping: 90 from 128 = 70.3%

 

G’Day tipsters! Yep it was a disastrous preview last weekend but it was borne of desperation. For those that have been following my tips it’s an indication of where you are on the competition ladder and I know where you are placed. Nowhere is my guess I’d say! Not quite high enough to nab a prize and enough points behind to have to pick a roughie or two each week to catch up. This modus operandi didn’t work for me either. I am running 4th in a comp that pays a few hundred bucks for the win and I’m 5 points adrift, running 5^th in another with equivalent prize money and also 5 points adrift and 7^th in a comp that pays a wheelbarrow full of money but 7 points adrift. So the conundrum is that you can look like an idiot and pick some silly ones and finish ignominiously nowhere as an “expert” or pick safe and still finish nowhere but at a respectable level for one with so much knowledge. I bet those wallies who know nothing about the game and have no interest in the weekly battles and who put their tips in every Monday prior to the following weekend’s game don’t suffer as much anguish!! So what’s it to be? Pride or the dash for cash? Remember you’re unique, just like everybody else.

I mean how bad were the tips? Geelong and Western Bulldogs for instance were teams placed 1^st and 2^nd on the ladder just half a game apart. Up to half time the scores were level. What happened after that who knows and I am sure Rocket and the boys still have no idea. The Bullies went down by 10 goals. In the game where I selected the Hawks I must admit that was the ‘safe’ bet but I did say that the Saints were a chance. Probably not that much of a chance but that makes 4 wins in a row to them and they are looking good at the moment promising all they did in the pre-season competition. Okay, picking Melbourne against Fremantle was a bit rough but hey - the Demons came from 50 points down last time they met and won the game. At the end of the first quarter it looked like they would win the game by 50 points but boy, were they bad. North Melbourne stuffed us all again with unpredictable form catching all but the hardiest North supporters and a handful of Collingwood haters off guard. Port Adelaide won their first game at home I suspect beating a depleted but better credentialed Adelaide who now look very shaky in a run for the finals. Anyway, why torture myself over those selections? When in doubt go for the home team and had I adopted that philosophy for the round I would have scored and tipped for you no less than 7 winners. A score of 7 would have put us in a position to catch the leaders in the next 6 rounds.

So, how are we looking for this week? In which games are the upsets likely to occur? Hmmm, read on and good luck.

 

 

Hawthorn V Geelong at the MCG Friday Night

 

It’s good to start the preview with a hard one and the idea that going with the home side when in doubt is not such a good idea in this instance. Admittedly the Hawks got towelled up last week by the Saints in the second half but the game is at the ‘G’ rather than at Skilled and the Hawks need to put right what went wrong. Geelong is looking ominously like un-backable premiership contenders and even without Ling and Ablett again this week it won’t make a lot of difference. I am reluctant to go against the Cats two weeks in a row but there is a chance that Hawthorn can win the game and let’s face it, we need to make up a point or two. It’s been nice to start the weekend of AFL with a win on the Friday night and with Collingwood losing to North last week it did not bode well for the rest of the weekend and so it proved. Could be a bad start again this week but for Hawthorn to seriously think they are made of the right stuff to contest the grand final then here’s their chance.

 

Hawthorn by 11

 

 

Essendon V Collingwood at MCG Saturday arvo

 

The Bomber winning run finally came to an end last week at the hands of the Tigers even if it was done by a Richmond player stepping back into the goals a couple of times to register a forced behind and take up valuable time. How do you get around such tactics? Well, if the guy standing the mark for the kick out races up and grabs the full back before he kicks out that would mean a 50 metre penalty awarded to the side kicking out. That gets the ball out of the goal square but you would have to weigh that tactic up as it gives the opposition a 50 metre start towards their goal. Crikey, the Pies were supposed to win against North last week and they will have to play with a bit more intensity in this game to take the points against the traditional enemy Essendon. I know Collingwood beat the Dons by 73 points on Anzac day earlier this year but that was when Essendon were pretty ordinary and they have improved. Let’s hope the Pies just had an off day against North last week. They simply must win this game and that should be enough incentive to beat an injury depleted Essendon who have only 26 players to pick from. Sob.

 

Collingwood by 29

 

West Coast Eagles V St Kilda at  SubiacoSaturday arvo

 

There’s a commercial they have on the box here in the West in which Whoosha and Sumich introduce this little weedy guy of about 50 years of age as the Eagles new centre half forward. It’s supposed to be a joke but rumour has it that West Coast is now serious about perhaps picking this guy in the October draft. He couldn’t do any worse could he? This Eagles team is truly woeful and St Kilda is pushing forward. This game emerges as possibly the easiest pick of the round.

 

St Kilda by 71

 

Richmond V Brisbane at the Telstra Dome Saturday night

 

No doubt about it – this is a tough game to pick. Can the Tigers maintain this form? And what of Brisbane’s form? It was lucky they played the Eagles last week after suffering a couple of losses one of them embarrassingly to Melbourne by a point. The Black / Brown / Bradshaw thing is pretty good but the Tigers have Richo back although having said that they did win without him – twice. The teams are evenly matched and the game should be tight. I’m still not a true Tiger believer but the stats say that Brisbane haven’t beaten Richmond for 6 or 7 years. How is that possible? Okay, we need that extra point again. It will be either a draw or a thrashing.

 

Brisbane Lions by 6

 

Sydney V Adelaide at SCG Saturday night

 

On form this game presents as another easy pick for the round. Barry Hall is back for the Swans and it was great to know that he doesn’t have a romantic bone in his body according to an interview of his former girlfriend. I mean moonlight and roses and …and….biffo??!!!  I think Barry found out that there are two theories to arguing with women…and neither one works! It’s hard to believe the Crows have lost their last 5 games and methinks they are heading for a clean half doz this weekend. Even at AAMI I would have been inclined to pick the Swans so with the match being at the SCG it helps remove any doubt.

 

Sydney Swans by 33

 

Port Adelaide V Fremantle at AAMI Stadium Sunday

 

Oh joy we have another difficult pick! If only the Power had faded last week as per usual I might have been persuaded to go for the Dockers after their strong performance against the Demons at Subiaco last week. However, I have to stick to my decision about not picking any of the WA teams again although I would like to hurriedly add that I know that will be difficult when the derby hits Perth. On a lighter side how would you like to be Josh Carr? Your contract with the Dockers expires at the end of the year and you find out that the team that wants you is Port Adelaide. Footy can be a nightmare I tell you!!

 

Port Adelaide by 22

 

Melbourne V North Melbourne at the MCG Sunday

 

The amazing thing about this game is that North Melbourne is going to win 3 games in a row almost cementing a place in the finals. How do you like that? In the meantime Jimmy Stynes has lobbed MacNamee out of the CEO’s job which makes sense. The reason the Demons have been going so badly this season is that they have been run like a tennis club!!!

 

North Melbourne by 42

 

Western Bulldogs V Carlton Sunday Arvo

 

What I don’t like about the Bullies at the moment is their form. Average showing against the Demons 3 weeks ago, and didn’t I mention that in my preview last week saying that they might bring that form into the game against the Cats, then of course that second half belting at Skilled last week has probably left them a bit vulnerable. Rocket needs to razz his charges up a bit because they will need all the zing they can muster to beat the Blues. I think the Bulldogs will bounce back after last week and they need to win this game on the bit to restore a bit of credibility. Although it was only their second loss of the year it was a doozy. The Bullies have far more evenness over the ground and although they don’t have Judd they have Cooney and Aker and Griffen and Murphy (so does Carlton though – have a Murphy I mean) and a Johnson and so on. Fev needs to be held to about 6 I reckon.

 

Western Bulldogs by 39

 

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