[AFL-Preview] Round 16

AFL PREVIEW

ROUND 16 2008 SEASON

 

Preview Tipping to date: 87 from 120 = 72.5%

 

It’s a bit hard to think of anything to write about the footy. The thuggery of Fremantle has been newspapered to death, particularly in the west. Personally I thought the 8 weeks was a bit over the top but that style of elbow thrusting has, or had, just about been eliminated from the game and rightly so. I copped an elbow in the mouth once and while I had my palate split the guy who did it was not even aware his elbow had almost been swallowed by an opposition player. What I’m saying is that the elbow is a lethal weapon when used like that in football yet when you get cracked on the funny bone it ain’t that humerus – pardon the pun.

Score of 6 last week was respectable but should have been 7 and I will not be tipping either of the WA teams for the rest of the season, even when they play the Demons. We still have 7 rounds to go and tipping leaders are sitting around 100 points. Cast your mind back to the last two seasons and a score of somewhere between 121 and 125 would see you being handed the winner’s cheque. This season the winner could well set a tipping record of over 130. Why is that you ask? Look at the top 3 teams. They are head and shoulders above the remaining 13 and tipping against them is not a good idea so you are almost guaranteed 3 points every round. Then look at the bottom 3 teams and you can see that they are head and shoulders below the other 13 giving you an almost guaranteed 3 more points in a round. Allowing for them to win occasionally you should be averaging 6 points per round. Look at my score, I’m 3 off that pace. The tipping leaders are another 8 points or so ahead due to a bit of luck in selections of close games. And what does it all mean? Your chances of catching the leaders, should the current  trend continue, are zip.

There are some interesting games to pick from this week with the two of the top teams playing each other and a couple of other tough match ups to give you some moments of indecision. Good luck. By the way, the second 4 previews have been written by my youngest son. He has the passion.

 

 

North Melbourne V Collingwood at Telstra Dome Friday Night

 

 The beauty of this match is that North Melbourne is one of the teams playing and as you know they won last week which means? Yep, no matter who they play they lose this week and I’m happy that’s it’s Collingwood who will enjoy the victory. Yes, I know North stole the game last time they met but the Pies are looking at a top four finish and to achieve that they must win these games against comparative opposition. What’s not to like about the way Collingwood go about their games? This won’t be easy and the lightning quick North handball keeps them in games. It will be tight to the end but I’m tipping the Pies to see it out to the end.

Collingwood by 12

 

Geelong V Western Bulldogs at Skilled Stadium Saturday arvo

 

Obviously this game is the match of the round with 1 versus 2 and both teams enjoying long winning runs. The Cats endured a physical game against Fremantle last week but will be fronting this game without two of their most prolific ball getters – Ablett and Ling. They need to be replaced by a couple of players who can contribute about 40 possessions for Geelong in the game. The Bulldogs can win in Darwin, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Sydney so a trip down to Skilled stadium in Geelong shouldn’t hold too much fears for them. I’m a bit worried how poorly the Doggies played last week to just keep Melbourne at bay and sometimes that form tends to linger into a second week. Another performance like that this week and Geelong will moider ‘em. You can’t imagine a blow out with two teams so closely matched and it could be a grand final preview. When in doubt go for the home team but the loss of their two champions might be just enough to see the Bulldogs prevail. So be it.

 

Western Bulldogs by 6

 

Richmond V Essendon at the MCG Saturday arvo

 

Essendon are going for 5 wins in a row!!! Unbelievable and I don’t think I picked them once in the last 4 selections. I have a feeling that if I pick them this week they won’t win and keep me offside, not hard to do with the Bombers I tell you. Richmond aren’t doing all that badly either and another win in the west and this time it was without Richo was pretty impressive. As a spectacle this match is shaping up as one to watch for sheer enjoyment of high scoring football should the weather not turn to rain. I’m tempted to pick a draw but just to be sheer bloody minded I will continue to pick against the Bombers until I get it right.

 

Richmond by 11

 

Brisbane Lions V West Coast at Gabba Saturday night

 

If the Eagles aren’t tanking one would have to think it’s a reasonable facsimile thereof. Kerr has another brain fade and gets himself rubbed out for 3 weeks and to keep it in the family his dad gets rub out for doing the same thing at a party, West Coast medical staff decide to put Jones and Hunter into the surgery hence finishing their seasons and Whoosha continues to tell anyone listening that the Eagles are travelling exceedingly well and all is to plan. However he has conceded that they won’t make the finals this year and they might not win the premiership next year as continually predicted!!! And they banished Cousins for being on drugs!!! Now we all know that Brisbane have won only 2 of their last five but that’s two better than the Eagles can expect to win for the rest of the season. I’m not tipping the Eagles regardless of how wonderfully well they are travelling.

 

Brisbane by 44

 

St Kilda V Hawthorn at the Telstra Dome Saturday Night

 

When you look at their ladder positions and their season win/loss ratio you would instantly pick Hawthorn, but looking more closely at ‘form’ you would see that St. Kilda has won 3 of its last 5 games.  A more interesting aspect of that statistic though is that St. Kilda has won 3 of its last 3 games.  These are the kind of things you look for when trying to build a case for the mob from Moorabbin against the Mighty High Flying Hawks.  Unfortunately if you’re going down that path you need to take into account that Hawthorn has won 13 of their last 15 and this is the kind of statistic that pulls the statistical balance down on one side.  Getting the ball out of the centre should be a fascinating duel with Lenny Hayes and Luke Ball up against Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell so ruck dominance will be crucial to feed these guys. Buddy, Roughead and Williams up front for the Hawks isn’t too badly matched either by Reiwoldt, Milne and Koschitzke for the Saints. St Kilda will give themselves a silly chance in this match but I’m banking on the Hawks to take this opportunity to snatch second place on the ladder which will be vacant after either a Geelong or Bulldogs loss earlier in the day.

 

Hawthorn by 21

 

Carlton V Sydney at Telstra Dome Sunday Afternoon

 

The big questions in this game are; Has Fev finally signed with Carlton?  Is he going to?  Will he show Sydney how much he is worth? Does Carlton still want him given the pasting that Nathan Buckley gave him in commentary last week?  The answers to these are clearly No.  Yes.  If he is in the mood.  Has anyone from Carlton ever listened to anything said by anyone from Collingwood...ever?  I know, answering a question with a question is poor form but it was rhetorical.  On the other side of the fence we have a lot of similar questions.  Will Barry Hall ever play again?  Is Barry Hall sane?  Can he be swapped out with Fev?  Does any journalist have the guts to ask Barry Hall about his future?  I could answer these questions fairly easily too but we all know that what I’m doing is trying to disguise my lack of interest in the actual game here.  So maybe I should answer the one question we all want to know...Is Fevola and Barry Hall the same person?  You’ll note that they aren’t playing at the same time so it begs the question...Ok, ok.  The winner will be...

 

Sydney by 19

 

 

Port Adelaide V Adelaide at AAMI Stadium Sunday

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you like), I was giving a kidney stone a good seeing to this week and have missed a lot of the press while still trying to cope with the concept of having something shoved the wrong way up a one-way pipe – ‘nuff said.  Being a Port Adelaide home game we could see the lowest crowd ever for a Showdown.  Port exhibited good courage last week before stumbling at the final hurdle.  You should never blame individuals for losing a team game but I’d also never pass up an opportunity to pick on a Port Adelaide player particularly if he is the captain.  Take that Warren.  Adelaide too got close against the mighty Pies, leading the game for a good half of football before the Birdman’s tragic knee collapse (if you watch the slow motion replay you can actually see it pop!)  Again, never blame a team loss on a single player, but up till then the Pies were struggling to find a suitable match up.  Anyway, getting back to this game.  I have a stat that can definitively tell me the outcome of this game.  And here it is:  The two teams have played 24 times, Port Adelaide has won 12 and Adelaide has won 12 although the Crows have won 6 of the last 7. To all South Australian football fans – after watching your teams lose week after week I can safely say that this week one lot of youse supporters will stay till the end and leave the ground smiling. Power supporters, you need to leave early again to avoid the traffic.

 

Adelaide by 19

 

Fremantle V Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday

 

Fremantle clearly had a brain snap last week.  For some strange reason they decided that the way to beat Geelong is through physical violence.  If they had done their research properly they would have discovered that there is no way to beat Geelong!  This could be a cut-throat game.  Not because the teams are teetering on the brink of a spot in the eight but because Fremantle might just bring razors on the field to ensure a win.  Solomon’s apology is duly noted.  The way Harvey stood next to him and the look on his face kinda reminded me of when a mother drags her kid back to a shop to apologise for pinching something.  The kid looks really, really, sorry...that he got caught!  Melbourne has actually been playing some reasonable football in the past few weeks.  With an ever dwindling list and no hope for the future I have been quite surprised at just how competitive they have been against some of the unstoppable teams of the competition.  This looms as a danger game for Fremantle as Melbourne could lift off the bottom of the ladder and as it is likely that the Dorks will have been told not to get too physical we could see a nancy-boy performance decked out in purple. There was a complaint made by a Freo supporter who stated on radio that he had to wait more than 30 minutes for a train from the ground and that Transperth should do something about that on footy days. It came to light that the Perth public transport department were putting on enough trains but not starting them soon enough for Fremantle supporters who were leaving early rather than watch their team cop another hiding. Transperth should be on notice to put the trains on early this Sunday!!

Melbourne by 18

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