[AFL-Preview] AFL Finals Preview

FOOTBALL PREVIEW

AFL  FINALS  2009

 

G’day tipsters. Thought I would pop back to torment you for the final series and hopefully my tips will be a bit better than week 22. Disastrous!  But enough to win two comps and run second in another. It was a nice collect.

We are at the serious end of the season and the best part of these finals is the heartbreaking elimination finals played between teams 5 to 8 on the ladder. Lots of controversy again following some biffo in round 22. Matthew Lloyd’s hit on Sewell was....was.....well, acceptable, about 15 years ago but in today’s game it cost him plenty. A bit like Buddy Franklin’s I guess.

Retirements aplenty and already, into day 4 after the last game we are into the trade part of the season. In the west we have heard only those delistings and unhappy players from West Coast and the Dockers and there are a few already. This is just the start.

Okay, there are a few good games this weekend, mostly amongst the top 4 teams but let’s see if we can pick a winner or two.

 

Adelaide V Essendon at AAMI Friday Night

 

I accepted a dinner engagement for Friday night but should be home in time to see the final score line which won’t be in the Bombers’ favour. While Essendon might not miss Lloyd too much they will miss Ryder heaps and on the form shown by the Crows last week when they kicked 174 points against the Blues it’s hard not to think that this game played in Adelaide won’t end up the same. Adelaide will need an easy game this week to prepare for a tough one against the Saints next week. Just joking. I cannot make a case for Essendon who have had a great year considering.

 

Adelaide by 44 points

 

Geelong V Western Bulldogs at MCG Saturday

 

Well the Bulldogs come into this in fine form. Much better than that of the Cats but the form shown in the latter part of the season of the home and away games is not a huge factor when looking at these two teams. Not a lot has separated the Cats and Dogs, neither in nature nor in previous football battles. A scratch here, a nip there, Dogs on the leash, Cats on heat, Dogs sniffing trees, Cats spitting fur balls, Dogs humping legs, Cats chasing birds. Which team will have the greater desire on the day? Geelong have a lot to prove after last year and if you had told me that Hawthorn wouldn’t be in the finals this year I would have hocked the home to put the money on the Cats. But with three other teams also in the race and a possible fifth with Adelaide, it has made the final series a bit more even and harder to predict. You would have to think the Bullies are serious when you find out that Lake has had the missus induced for an early birth so that he is not distracted from his footy. As much as I would love to back the Dogs I still have a lot of respect for the Cats. They should do it. Just, but don’t quote me.

 

Geelong by 6 points

 

Brisbane Lions V Carlton at the Gabba Saturday Night

 

The Lions had a tough win against the fast finishing Swans last week while The Blues got worse as the game progressed. The saying at the start of the season for Carlton was something like ‘they are coming.’ It might be they will still be coming because they have had a season filled with inconsistency. Then again so has Brisbane with both teams really being fairly equal across the ground. Young Rich for the Lions picked up the Rising Star award unanimously and he really looks like another Simon Black with that raking left foot. If you are tipping in this game then the real problem to think through is how Carlton can recover mentally from a thrashing last week then fly to Brisbane and reverse their form. The Blues still remain one dimensional in attack and for them to win Fev needs to kick a bag. The Lions look like having more options up front and with the return of Bradshaw to take the heat off Jonathan Brown a bit, plus it being a home game for them it might be the right tip. But have you ever seen Juddy play finals? He doesn’t give up easily and that spirit might rub off on the rest of the team. Well, a very even contest and it will, should, go down to the wire. As much as I hate to get caught up in the Carlton hype – maybe they are coming. Well, this week anyway. Carlton at their best is a far better side than Brisbane at this stage of their respective developments. So be it.

 

Carlton by 11

 

St Kilda V Collingwood

 

It will be difficult to keep bias out of this but let’s give it a try. Firstly the Pies have a chance to win because Rocca didn’t make the team. And what an injustice that would have been. Rocca might never make the team actually – again. The last time these teams played the Saints absolutely crushed the Magpies and squeezed the life out of them. I think the Pies have improved heaps since then while the Saints have faltered twice in the past few weeks as a result of a great season. Did the Saints peak too early? Mick has a habit of getting his teams cherry ripe at the right end of the season so if he was setting Collingwood up for a grand final week then he would be planning a loss here followed by a win and another win. Still hard to see the Pies matching up across the ground in all positions and that Saints backline is tighter than a fish’s bum. I would be happier picking Collingwood if they had beaten the Bulldogs last week. They didn’t. So I won’t.

 

St Kilda by 19

 

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