AFL PREVIEW ROUND 20
Last Week 5 from 8 = 117 / 160 =73.7%
Only 5 correct last week has put me under a bit of pressure resulting in my loss of first place in one tipping comp but retaining the lead in the other. The really good news is that I entered my tips for the expensive comp on the Monday of last week and then at 5.42pm Friday I realised I had not logged in to change some of the tips. I was beside myself. I mean I had picked Adelaide, Carlton and Melbourne to win instead of Hawthorn, Port and Freo!!! As they say folks, the rest is history. And that’s my nice tale to almost wind up the season in this penultimate preview.
One coaching job – North Melbourne - has been taken by Scott, formerly of the Brisbane Lions and assistant coach at Collingwood. Last I heard at Richmond was that Ken Hinkley was now a strong consideration?? I can’t remember his name being bandied about at all in the preliminary reports.
Retirements are also happening at clubs with sad departures of Robbo, Whelan and Wheatley at Melbourne, Crouch and Barry at the Swans along with O’Loughlin and Hall earlier, Bowden from Richmond, Dew at Hawthorn, Simpson last week at North and Lucas at Essendon. Your time is pretty short in this game and at 29 or 30 years of age your days are numbered. I wish I was 29 or 30.
Tipsters, this is really crunch time in tipping. 3 or 4 points down and you are going to not only need some upsets in matches but you are going to have to pick them!! If you are more than 7 points down you can look back on the season and count how many games there were that the result was decided by a kick. There were 11 and you got 8 of those wrong, there were 2 draws so you can now account for 10 points. You’re only 7 down so you will think (incorrectly) that you should be really leading by about 3. Tough game tipping. Good luck this week.
Western Bulldogs V Geelong Telstra Dome Friday Night
Let’s start Friday night with a tough choice to make. Both teams are playing below their best and the Western Bulldogs will be desperate to retain 4th place amidst strong challenges from the Crows and the Blues. The Bullies only lost this game on the last kick of the day earlier in the season and little separates their form. It’s not a matter of desperation and motivation here because Geelong is the better team and should win regardless of how hard the Bulldogs play the game. Can they win tonight? The Cats had a 1 point win over Hawthorn, a two point win over Adelaide, a loss to Carlton and a 5 point win over Sydney. Winning the close ones may be what it’s all about. For those looking for the unsafe point in the tipping I suggest the Bulldogs.
Geelong by 6
Carlton V Melbourne at Telstra Dome Saturday
The Demons have almost ruined their chances of a priority pick with that ridiculously easy win over Fremantle last weekend. This game should settle things back to normal for Melbourne’s early draft picks.
Carlton by 41
Adelaide V West Coast at AAMI Saturday
The West Coast Eagles have won 3 games in a row. Basically almost doubling the wins they had over the previous 16 weeks. One of those wins was somewhat meritorious over the Western Bulldogs. Agreed that the Eagles have improved but even in my wildest dreams I will find it hard to recommend them in this match. I don’t think this is a good bet for the tipsters looking for an upset either.
Adelaide by 51
Brisbane Lions V Port Adelaide Gabba Saturday Night
The Brisbane Lions are looking at a top 4 finish as well but they will need to keep the pressure on those teams ahead of them like the Bulldogs and Carlton and Adelaide. With the Doggies up against the Cats an opportunity is there for the Lions to push on. I can’t see the other two teams losing though and as those games are being played before this one the Lions will need to stay motivated if the results go against them in other games. They should be far too good for a very erratic Port Power outfit that just has been almost impossible to pick on a consistent basis.
Brisbane by 61
Richmond V Hawthorn MCG Saturday Night
There is nothing to suggest that the Hawks cannot keep their slim finals’ chances alive with a win over a very poor Richmond. However, whereas the Tigers will gain some motivation from the return of a poleaxed Polack, I cannot work out just what will motivate the Hawks this season. So tipsters, this is a game that might fire the imagination for an upset but boy, if Richmond play as well as they did last week then Buddy will kick 8 and the Hawks will win by as much. That’s a better bet for us tipping leaders.
Hawthorn by 48
St Kilda V North Melbourne at Telstra Dome Sunday
Funny thing about last week is that if Riewoldt had kicked that goal against the Bombers at the end of the game I would have scored 8 in my tipping comp. The fact that the Saints were about 7 goals down in that game and nearly snatched it from Essendon in the last second does not bode well for North who were well beaten by the Eagles last week. North really took it up to the Saints last time they met and St Kilda just edged forward in the last quarter. I don’t think that scenario will apply here. Close first quarter, 5 goals up by half time to the Saints and a canter at the end to win by 10 goals and there’s nothing Scotty can do about it, neither this season or next.
St Kilda by 61
Collingwood V Sydney at MCG Sunday
Question here is whether the Swans with another two retirements and two heartbreaking losses in two weeks against the two top sides is going to find it “two’’ much for them to beat the third top side. The game is at the MCG and maybe the boys want to give their champions Barry and Crouch a good send off. Please wait until the following week when they can do it for those two guys and O’Loughlin in the last game at home. The whole effort would be lost if done in this match against the Pies. Thanks.
Collingwood by 23
Fremantle V Essendon at Subiaco Sunday
I have no idea just which Fremantle will come out to play this final game for them at Subiaco. It would be nice if they could put together a win for their fans and show them that last week against the Demons it was a bit of an aberration. The Bombers have wrestled 8th spot on the ladder again after some poor performances before the shock win against the Saints last week but this is a real danger game for them. It’s not as if they have a great record at Subiaco of late. Tipsters, this might be the point to gamble on if you’re just that point or two off the lead. I picked Freo last week against Melbourne in this preview but picked against them in another tipping comp. Freudian slip? Possibly because the Dorks sure mess with my head so imagine if you were a supporter? I think they can win this game because the Bombers will be flying to Perth, they will be on a mental low after last week’s great effort, injury problems to key players and it would be more fitting that they win next week to give Lucas a proper send off and they won’t win two in a row.
Fremantle by 16
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