AFL Preview Round 19
Last Week 6 from 8 =109/144 =75.7%
Well Tipsters we are getting to the pointy end of the season with just the 4 rounds left to play. Egads! The season is almost over and that sends a tremble through the footy soul I tell you. For some of the teams the season was over before it even started and for you their supporter it was bleak news week after week because you copped that many low blows you were permanently doubled over and then you decide that it’s a natural way to walk and one of the benefits of your posture is that you have found $2.85 in loose change because your eyes are to the ground all day. The analogy is that some teams have been in the “no- finals” wilderness for many years and those teams look like they will be there for a few years to come. To be a supporter of the Tigers, the Demons and the Dockers has been, well, character building to say the least. Another year in the wilderness it might have been but it was good for us tipsters who readily get an easy weekly tipping point from their losses. Conversely Geelong and St Kilda have been great contributors to the tipping score each week as well.
For the tipsters who are more than 5 points behind the leaders start making plans for next year. Tipsters who are still in the running and don’t believe in that tanking talk there are some interesting games from which to pick. 32 points up for grabs so good luck. If you can score between 22 and 28 you are in with a strong chance.
Carlton V Geelong at MCG Friday night
Geelong is improving each week. A one point win against the Hawks two weeks ago was followed up with a 2 point win against the unlucky Crows last week. Carlton, on the other hand, seem to be in a form slump and are battling to beat weaker teams, or so – called weaker teams. They will not find this game in their list of possible wins marked out at the start of the season. But Carlton almost beat the Saints in one of the great games of footy this year and maybe they just need a better challenge. The Cats have a few out of the line up but are still good enough to beat Hawthorn and Adelaide so it will be a brave punter who bets against them in this one – or a clueless Blues supporter. While I give Carlton a chance if they produce it would not be a clever pick.
Geelong by 28
Western Bulldogs V West Coast Eagles at Telstra Dome Saturday
I was upset that the Eagles cost me a point last week when they decided to play a bit of footy against an injury ridden Bombers team. This week they will reprieve themselves when I tip against them.
Western Bulldogs by 41
Hawthorn V St Kilda at Aurora Saturday
This is shaping as one of the games of the round, or should have been if the Hawks had won a couple more matches. The Saints will be tested this week again and by jove they were tested last week winning by a solitary point against the Sydney Swans. The Saints will be motivated to maintain an unbeaten season and the Hawks will be motivated to knock off the unbeaten team. Being at Aurora tipsters could be excused for tipping the upset of the season but again, tipping leaders, who have scored well with Saints’ picks 18 weeks in a row will be reluctant to tip against them...and I’m a tipping leader. However, I have just read the outs for the St Kilda team and they include Reiwoldt and Montagna. Hmmm. We all know he Saints will lose at least one game this season. Maybe they’re making sure it’s this one although I cannot work out why any of the teams in the 8 would do Hawthorn any favours.
Hawthorn by 13
Essendon V Brisbane at the MCG Saturday
The Lions got a touch up by the Magpies last week and with a second game in a row in Melbourne they might come close to losing two on the trot. The Bombers really bombed out last week in Perth, we all should have seen it coming, I know, but their supporters have to expect better things when they play at home. Unfortunately I’m thinking the Lions have just a bit too much firepower for Essendon and as long as Brisbane doesn’t let the Bombers cruel them in the first quarter they should have the all round talent to win in most positions, including the scoreboard. Another drug story in AFL won’t help the Essendon concentration.
Brisbane Lions by 26
Adelaide V Collingwood at AAMI Saturday Night
This match is definitely the game of the round between the 5th placed team and the 4th placed team and only a game separating them on the ladder as well. The Pies despatched one team of pretenders last week and this round they have the opportunity to put a bigger gap between 4th and the rest. The Crows rolled the Pies in the first game of the season in a close one and you would expect this to be as close. In an even money bet I’m tipping Collingwood to reverse the result of the earlier match between them to give them some breathing room. This game could go either way and a slow start by either team will be dangerous.
Collingwood by 3
North Melbourne V Melbourne at Telstra Dome Sunday
Here’s a game of undoubted interest to supporters, family and friends only. Oh, and the 2 or 3 hopefuls that will be early drafted and so will be praying that the Demons win to ensure they don’t stay under that 5 game win. Did you read some of the tripe written by sports writers and stuff written in the papers about how Melbourne supporters felt when their team nearly won against the Tigers last week? They were happier with the Tiger win. Really? Well all their dreams are for nought because the Demons are going to knock off their northern neighbours and stuff everybody’s discussion and accusations on tanking and save the careers of some of the nation’s best up and coming youngsters!
Melbourne by 30
Richmond V Sydney Swans at MCG Sunday
The Tigers are almost the best team in the AFL to steal a draw and losses from the jaws of victory. Now, it’s a difficult choice in this game because the following considerations will play their part. The Swans almost beat the league leaders last week. One point!! They will be a bit down in energy but now understand that if they play that way again they can beat anybody. Richmond has won two games in a row, well two and a half really so you could loosely say they are the form team. This game is heading for a draw because it is hard to find strong enough positives for either team to win the game easily. Home team it is but very unconvincing. Possibly another nail biter!
Richmond by 5
Fremantle V Port Adelaide at Subiaco Sunday
Freo is not a bad bet in this game tipsters. Why? Well, the ups and downs of the Power, surges you might call them if you were an electrical type person, indicate that after such a glorious win against last year’s premiers they are due to suffer a humiliating defeat by a lower placed team. Now just how humiliating is it to be beaten by the Dorks?? It would be the pits and Port love the pits. This is my stupid tip of the round but if you look at Fremantle’s record at home, not good I know, nor is their away record actually, but I digress. At home they have beaten the Eagles (no biggie there) and come close in their games against the Blues and Geelong. Port are a fickle team and the young Dockers might just like to give themselves a chance. I will and no doubt regret it this time next week.
Fremantle by 10
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