[AFL-Preview] Round 5

AFL Preview Round 5

 

Last week 6 from 7 – Total 23 / 31 (74.2%) AFL  / VFL history books have been taken out of bookshelves to check what the record number of draws there has been in a season. I can't remember a year in which there were three draws in the first four rounds let alone over a whole season and is this the result of the overall AFL grand scheme to even out the competition? In a way that's working but over the past few years there has been a team that has stood head and shoulders above the rest for short periods, like 3 – 4 years. Brisbane, Geelong and maybe now Collingwood. It has taken these teams years to get to that stage though. West Coast was the same in 1995 to 1997. But then if that's the case what about teams like Melbourne and Richmond, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda all of whom have gone for many, many years without a premiership? The salary cap and the draft picks have worked their magic in a fashion. But there has also been an insidious side to the AFL when they saw that one team cities like Perth and Adelaide would dominate the competition if it was not allowed for another team in the same town to be given that licence to play AFL resulting in Fremantle and Port Adelaide. Whichever way you look at it though, a drawn game in a sport that can have teams scoring points and goals within seconds of play is still a wondrous thing to behold. If you add the drawn Grand Final from last year we have had 4 draws in 6 rounds of football!! There's a Shakespearian phrase that just doesn't come to mind to cover the phenomenon! Looking at the form of the teams playing this weekend the chance of a drawn game again is still possible. Watch this space and good luck in the tipping.

 

Brisbane V St Kilda at the Gabba Thursday Night

The Saints and the Lions are off a break so nobody should get tired playing this game. The form of St Kilda is a worry for tipsters but the Saints should notch their first win of the season against Brisbane. Brown still missing for the Lions might be offset a little with Lenny Hayes out for the Saints. Last time they played here the Saints scraped home by 14 points. I think they can do a little better this time.

St Kilda by 39

 

Port Adelaide V Gold Coast Saturday afternoon at AAMI

The Power won their first game last week against same state rivals the Crows and that form will be enough to carry into this game against a young, learning Gold Coast. Let's hope the Suns don't get thrashed but it's possible. Gold Coast will welcome the return of Ablett but this one player a win does not bring.

Port Adelaide by 66

 

Carlton V Adelaide at Etihad Saturday Night

The Blues got out of jail last week with that drawn game against the Bombers while Adelaide was just woeful in a game that most thought they would win. The Crows are just as likely to come out firing this week but on form you have to back Carlton to get back into the winning circle. The Blues need to find a consistent avenue to kick goals because over the past couple of games they haven't managed a decent score. Conversely the Crows have a potent forward line when allowed and it's that inconsistency in their game that makes them difficult to tip.

Carlton by 22

 

North Melbourne V Richmond at Etihad Sunday afternoon

If you've had a big Easter dinner with the family and you're not a North or Richmond supporter perhaps a picnic by the river is a better option than watching this game between two teams who have yet to win. Either team can win and another draw would not surprise in a season filled with draws already. Maybe the Tigers have a bit more goal kicking power. North coach Scott reckons his team is better this year than last so a hard fought win for them is as likely as a win for the Tigers. Toss of a coin really and it's a tip that will be difficult to pencil in until the final siren.

Richmond by 12

 

Essendon V Collingwood at the MCG Anzac Day

The traditional Anzac day game is on an Easter Monday so do people get an extra day off? The game was sold out over a week ago so expect 90,000 fans at the 'G' to see another Collingwood victory. The excitement of the day will help the Bombers with an adrenalin rush early but don't expect a young Essendon side to be beating  class players all day or for long enough to post a winning score. The margin last time they met was 98 points and while a repeat of that is not possible with the way the Bombers are playing under new coach Hird they do need to keep it under 10 goals.

Collingwood by 48

 

Fremantle V Western Bulldogs at Subiaco Monday night

This is a good test for Fremantle coming up against a Bulldogs side that had a rest last week and who won two easy games but got a hiding from Essendon. There was another big injury for the Dockers with the loss of Suban so their depth will be tested against a slick Bulldog side. Freo lost a close one to Geelong at Subiaco and it's possible that they will lose another close one at home to the Western Bulldogs. For tipsters it's difficult to pick the form of the Bulldogs as this is a better test for them than the last two outings. Most bets will be on Fremantle but I'm thinking for tipsters this might be a bit of an upset.

Western Bulldogs by 11

 

Hawthorn V Geelong at the MCG Tuesday afternoon

This round has stretched out over 6 days culminating in the game of the round between two of the likely contenders for runners up. Expect another big crowd interested to see what these teams can produce under pressure. The Hawks still look a little fragile at times but the Cats have shown that experience and class doesn't go away over a season. In two tight finishes Geelong has shown the value of its 'aging' brigade as they eked out thrilling wins against St Kilda and Fremantle, experience that will be needed against the Hawks – and it might be just enough.

Geelong by 17

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