From: John Loffler <bizloff@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Subject: AFL Season 2011 Round 1
To: AFL Preview List <afl-preview@lists.com.au>
2011 SEASON
AFL PREVIEW ROUND 1
At last the 2011 season is upon us. As a Collingwood supporter it has taken this correspondent a great deal of self control not to have sent you all a few exclamations of joy regarding the wonderful result experienced by thousands of football lovers at the 2 Grand Finals last year. And the pleasure is actually heightened for Magpie supporters when they know that those 'other' supporters that intensely dislike Collingwood have to suffer the Pies' win in furious silence! I was unable to get tickets for the drawn Grand Final but had an exciting time at a local hotel a couple of torpedo punts' distance from the MCG and I was amongst lots of Pies supporters as we suffered the highs and lows of a great game of football. I scored a ticket to the Grand Final replay and alongside one son (the other relinquished his ticket due to work commitments hence my good fortune) watched a wicked game of football the result of which I knew but refused to admit to myself half way through the second quarter. Another close game like the previous week would have seen me in a hospital coronary unit for sure. The real beauty of the Collingwood win is that they have a team good enough to do it twice unless Mick pulls a West Coast Eagles trick and misses a year!!
The previews and reviews this season are coming to you from northern China, a place so cold that the tears brought to your eyes by a biting wind are being frozen to your cheeks as they fall helping to form a sort of face ice sculpture that looks like a botox fill gone awfully wrong!! I arrived in Beijing leaving a temperature of over 30 Celsius to a -10C!! Dressed in my short-sleeved shirt and a pair of jeans the cold nearly killed me and added to that temperature shock was the fact that the plane landed at a remote part of the airport so we had to disembark and get a bus to the terminal while my body suffered cold never experienced before. Stayed just the one day in Beijing where I pulled all my best winter gear from the suitcase for the trip further north to my destination near the Inner Mongolian border and located further north than Vladivostok to be greeted by a minus 24!! Last season the reviews came from Norseman (WA desert) and Wangaratta in northern Victoria where I thought (stupidly in hindsight) the winter temperature was rather cold.
But being an AFL fan in China presents you with other problems such as the great firewall of China, not the Great Wall. Filtered information and blocked websites can frustrate you until you find the way around it all.
Enough about my location, let's talk footy!
As a tipping information preview over the years we have steered away from presenting you with columns of stats and player injuries and lots of other info you can get from a multitude of newspapers around the country as well as a million websites. What we will try to assist you with is that tipping competition you are in where bragging rights for the winner holds as much pride for the individual as does winning the premiership by the AFL team!! Not quite but in your fishpond who cares?
The great stories that came to light during the AFL off season started with the indecent assault allegations against two Collingwood players a day after their GF win. That went nowhere. Then we had the first Fevola incident which also went nowhere. The second incident unfortunately did go badly for Fev but his fans can catch him at a Casey Scorpions game in the VFL where he will kick 122 goals this year. The St Kilda stuff was not good for the club and the aftermath with Ricky Nixon was really getting distasteful. Me? I'm still scratching my head about just who the young lady in question is and the agenda but I did miss a bit while travelling.
Lots of player changes, none bigger than the Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast Suns and the coaching switch of Bomber Thompson to Essendon after so many heated denials. Maybe Essendon really wants a burnt out assistant coach to help James, who knows? Seems to be working okay so far.
Our target this year is to score around the 68% - 75% accuracy on tipping. That will win you the money, the glory, the recognition. I am not sure just how many games are being played because in rounds 4, 5 and 6 there are 3 teams having byes. Is it 176 games? Your tipping target is to get a score of between 120 and 132 correct from that 176. Past years has seen a score of around 121 just about do the trick. Good luck for 2011.
Carlton V Richmond at the MCG Thursday Night
There are a couple of things we can be sure about with regard to these two teams. Richmond will not make the finals this year and Carlton will not win 2 premierships in the next 5 years. Another thing you can be sure about – Carlton will win this game. The Blues have slaughtered the Tigers in the last 2 meetings and not a lot has changed in either team to make a tipster think there will be an upset. A couple of key players out for Carlton and Foley back for Richmond but no Cousins. Richmond is in for another tough year and I expect the Blues to remain at about the same level.
Carlton by 42
Geelong V St Kilda at the MCG Friday Night
Grand Final and finals combatants in past years so it will be interesting to see how the Cats survive the Ablett departure and how the Saints survive the sensationalism of a bad pre-season press and, er, um, some over-exposure. If Ling and Chapman don't play for the Cats and Mooney remains doubtful Geelong might find this a bit hard first up facing a vengeful Saints team. Kozi needs to stand up at full forward for the Saints and not leave all the work to Reiwoldt. The Saints look as good as last year, the Cats need to sharpen their claws. Tipsters might like to try a bet each way on this if you're in more than one comp.
St Kilda by 17
Collingwood V Port Adelaide at Etihad Saturday afternoon.
The Pies have 60,000 members and the game is being held at a venue that holds 50,000! That's an interesting arrangement. The Magpies should be too good for an improving Power who must have drawn the short straw to get this game as their season opener. On top of that the AFL have seen fit to make Collingwood fans wait 3 weeks before they can raise the glorious 2010 flag at the MCG when they play Carlton. At least then the crowd will be 80,000 plus. While the NAB cup is no indicator of form in the 1st round Port did get bundled out while Collingwood went on to win the trophy. Read what you will into those results. It will get a bit boring if the Pies win the 2011 GF as well don't you think? Not another cup!!! A Port win here would be a real upset.
Collingwood by 51
Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Saturday Night
Both these teams promised a lot in 2010 but neither delivered. The Hawks might rest Hodge until next week and the Crows defence is no longer their Bockline. When in doubt the home team looks a good bet. The Hawks can win the game without Hodge but the Crow backline will have their hands full with Buddy, Roughead and Rioli. Last season Hawthorn played their finals game against Collingwood in round 21 and didn't show a lot after that so they will be aware that a good start to the season, especially against Craig's Adelaide mob, is paramount. Expect a close game.
Adelaide by 16
Brisbane V Fremantle at the Gabba Saturday Night
This is the hardest game of the opening round from which to pick a winner. When in doubt? Brisbane is in for a hard season and needs to capitalise on pre-season injuries at Fremantle but the Dockers still have more depth and should start their season with a win. Jonathon Brown has not kicked a ball in anger yet this year so he might be a bit underdone and if they put McFarlane on Brown then the Dockers will get some run from half back. Pavlich and Sandilands remain the keys for Freo and expect Hill to start the year well. For tipsters, again a bit each way but based on last year's form the Dockers should win even if it's an away game for them.
Fremantle by 11
Essendon V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Sunday afternoon
The Bombers look a lot better so far this season under the coaching of James Hird. The real stuff starts with this match but all that improvement will not be enough to knock the Bulldogs off their game. A lot was expected of the Bulldogs last year and they just didn't have real match winners in the side when it counted. Barry Hall will be hard to stop but the team has a lot of other options when they go forward. Based on last season you could not expect the Bombers to win this so don't tip them.
Western Bulldogs by 33
Melbourne V Sydney at the MCG Sunday afternoon
It's time the Demons made a bold start to the season to give their supporters some hope. Their high draft picks of previous years need to play some good footy. Sydney will be under a new coach after the departure of Roos so there is a lot to prove for both teams. Maybe we will have a draw in the first round but remember the Demons gave the Swans a real hiding the last time they met and how much has changed in the personnel of both sides since then? Captain Kirk and Roos gone for Sydney and a couple of Melbourne boys jumped ship – or were pushed. My tip is the Demons but it might be a close one.
Melbourne by 6
West Coast Eagles V North Melbourne
The Eagles and North will both struggle to make the 8 this year and in West Coast's favour is that the game is being played at home. That might be just enough advantage to get them over the line. Neither team really has the cattle to beat the top eight contenders but there seems to be a group of about 9 teams that are all on about par and will give us some close games during the year as well as cause the occasional upset. I just don't know where the Eagles are heading. They have a few good players and with Cox in the ruck they should win a lot more ball but they also have some average footballers who badly need to improve their basic skills which caused an inexcusable amount of turnovers last year. Pretty much the same for North with some good young players in amongst the more experienced but North will still be an average team this year. Expect the game to go down to the wire.
West Coast by 19
Gold Coast Suns – bye.
A definite win here for the new team.
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