[AFL-Preview] Tipping Software Extraordinary

Hi Everyone,

 

As some of you may know, for the last couple of years I have been working on some tipping software.  The aim of it was to create a database that kept records and use that database to successfully tip the outcome of matches.  Well I unleashed it in a work tipping comp last week and got 8 out of 8 and almost got the margin and that was from China!!

 

It works in two modes.  You can just enter the teams playing and it will try to tip a result or you can enter all of the team players, the venue and the weather conditions and looking at past results and player stats it will try to successfully tip a result.  Maybe an early call but it appears it is quite accurate.

 

I have created a web interface and I would like you guys to trial it.  The implications for winning at SportsBet and other TAB outlets is very high.  You can access the database through the web page below.  Please provide feedback.

 

http://www.minesched.com/Aaron/Master_Tipping_DB.htm

 

[AFL-Preview] Round 2 Preview

AFL Preview Round 2

 

Last week: 6 from 8 (take a point for the draw).Your correspondent did not quite have the guts to tip the draw last week in the Melbourne versus Sydney game but did hint that a tied score was extremely likely. There were quite a few close games in the first round with 3 other matches being won by less than a goal. The big surprise for AFL followers and certainly for the Western Bulldogs was their demolition by the Bombers, a result that put Essendon on top of the ladder. AFL officials will love the look of the ladder after round 1 – Essendon, Collingwood and Carlton sitting in positions 1 – 3. What sort of a crowd can we expect at the Collingwood versus Carlton game next week? I attended last season and was amongst 80,000 other fans at that game. Then of course we will have the Anzac Day game between Essendon and Collingwood which attracts a big crowd anyway but with the Bombers performing well the AFL might be looking at crowd records. The new substitute rule is causing clubs a bit of a headache but at this stage it's hard to see a direct affect on the game although listening to the experts they seem to think it slowed the game down with less interchanges and also helped to keep better players on the ground longer. Hard to make that call from northern China and looking at replays didn't convince me…..yet. Technology is a wonderful thing when you are a long way from home and if I can drink a beer, listen to the games live and stream some replays it's almost the same as being in your lounge or garage in Australia – almost. Surreal but good!! The temperature here in the Heilongjiang province has rocketed in the past week and we are experiencing daily highs of about 12 and night minimums of -1 to 0, very temperate. Bicycles, left in building corners and frozen into place up to the middle of their wheels over winter, have thawed out, been commandeered and we now have streets just full of Chinese bicyclists adding to the total confusion and indescribable stupidity of the normal Chinese traffic. With the change in the weather we now have fruit and vegetable vendors selling their produce from their hand carts on street corners and with a national public holiday on Tuesday, Tomb Sweeping Day, all other available sidewalk space is occupied by the ever present Chinese entrepreneur selling 'paper' money for people to buy and burn on those same street corners at night after the vendors have gone home. Chaotic is an apt description, busy is another.

Back to the footy. There are a few difficult games to pick from in round 2 and for the tipster it might get tricky to select a team to win two in a row after their first win was a last gasp effort. In the case of Essendon……well you wouldn't tip them last year against the Swans so what chance do you give them this week after their thrashing of the Bulldogs? Target this week is 5 correct, anything above that is a bonus. Good luck.

 

St Kilda V Richmond at the MCG Friday Night

The Saints let one slip last week against much better opposition than they will have in this game. The Tigers showed spirit against Carlton but the Saints will record their first win of the season and Richmond will have a zip – 2 start to 2011. The Reiwoldt cousins line up at opposite ends of the ground but Jack might have a harder task to kick 5 or 6 against a tighter Saints defence. The Tigers have a younger, inexperienced centreline up against the St Kilda champs Hayes and Del Santo which will help the Saints gather more inside 50's. Tiger coach Hardwicke reckons Richmond is a chance. I reckon he's full of it.

St Kilda by 38

 

North Melbourne V Collingwood at Etihad Saturday Afternoon

North has always troubled the Pies and teams this year will push themselves against last year's premiers. Some will win, most will lose. Try as they might North cannot win this game and the margin might be similar to last week when Collingwood played Port. Fresh from their NAB cup win the Pies showed their fans a few gears in last week's game against Port. Frustrating to see a 54 point lead whittled away as Collingwood found their lower gears but as expected, when it counted, they were able to 'power' away, so to speak. North Melbourne is on about the same skill level as the Power, maybe a little better, so the Pies need to be aware that a complete slack off will, if not lose them the game, make it uncomfortably close. If Brent Harvey has another quiet day and the Collingwood runners move unchecked, expect a blowout in the score line.

Collingwood by 61

 

Port Adelaide V West Coast at AAMI Saturday afternoon

The sides are evenly matched but the loss of LeCras and Masten to long term injuries, two of West Coast's better players, is a bad blow for the Eagles. On Port's side of the injury ledger they lost Jay Schultz with a knee injury. Playing the Power at AAMI doesn't help West Coast and their plan to put two wins in a row together. An unusual statistic between these two teams is that West Coast have not beaten the Power at this ground since 1998 when the Eagles had a far better side than what they will field in this game!! Expect a close game but the home side should win.

Port Adelaide by 13

 

Gold Coast V Carlton at the Gabba Saturday Night

This is the historic first match for the Gold Coast team. They have recruited some star players but will find this pretty tough against the Blues with Judd, Murphy, Scotland and Gibbs in reasonable early season form. Judd is playing his 200^th. How will Karmichael Hunt go in his first real game of AFL? How will Ablett settle into his new team? Hard to tip the Suns first up unless they were playing West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond or the Power. It will be interesting to see just where this new team is relative to the others.

Carlton by 42

 

Fremantle V Geelong at Subiaco Saturday Night

The Dockers got out of jail last week with a last gasp win over the Lions. Geelong also did the same against the Saints and the Cats know this trip to the west is usually filled with trouble. Old heads might not prevail when fitness will be the key in the hot weather. Fremantle beat Geelong last time at Subiaco and it might be a repeat this round. If Chapman returns for the Cats it will be his 200^th game. The biggest problem Fremantle has is that they don't have classy on-ballers who can capitalise on the dominance of Sandilands in the ruck. Then again the loss of the classiest Cat on-baller, Gary Ablett, is still a negative that Geelong needs to overcome. It should be another close game for these teams who both won by less than a kick last week.

Fremantle by 10

 

Western Bulldogs V Brisbane at Etihad Sunday

The Bulldogs have a lot to prove after last week's debacle against Essendon and fortunately they meet a Brown-less Brisbane who lost against Freo last week in the dying seconds. We have no idea why the Western Bulldogs played like that last week but expect a different result and approach this week. They could kick the sweep. Will Rocket Eade make wholesale changes or was that pathetic effort against the Bombers just 'one of those games'? Brisbane's injury problems also include the lost of Staker for a whole season with a knee reconstruction. If the Bullies had a couple of guys that didn't quite make last week's team then perhaps we can expect them to be included for this match. Barry Hall might be a bit too much for the Lions' back men to stop as well.

Western Bulldogs by 55

 

Sydney V Essendon at ANZ Stadium Sunday

The Bombers pulverised the Bulldogs last week and based on that form they are almost a sure thing against the Sydney Swans in this match. Don't underestimate the Swans though, they have the ability to win this but it seems that Essendon is on a bit of a roll in 2011 even though they lost the NAB cup final. Interestingly, the last time they met in round 11 last year the Swans scraped home by 9 points and the Bombers look a lot better this season. Adam Goodes had a quiet game last week so he has to contribute more in this match. The game will be a lot closer than most think and the tip is for an upset, just what the Bombers need for a reality check.

Sydney by 17

 

 

Hawthorn V Melbourne at the MCG Sunday

Hawthorn started last week against the Crows in great form. Melbourne was a little slow out of the blocks against the Swans but was full of running at the end of the game and was unlucky to draw. Expect the overall class of the Hawks to help them win a tight one at the 'G'. Their captain Luke Hodge may be included this week but problems with the achilles need to be 100% clear before a player is included in the team. Buddy kicked 2.6 last week so he needs to lift his accuracy. Hard to make a case for the Demons so I won't.

Hawthorn by 18

 

Adelaide Bye

The AFL Preview is sent via an automatic email list. To join or leave the list is easy.

 

Please visit our website at http://www.footy.com.au/fts/newsletters.htm

 

OR

 

If you have difficulty with the above please email lists@footy.com.au

 

[AFL-Review] AFL Round 1 2011

AFL Round 1 Review

 

Carlton 14.20.104 Defeated Richmond 13.6.84

The game was in the balance after an ordinary 3^rd quarter by the Blues but sanity prevailed and some great leadership by Judd in the final quarter saw Carlton scrape home. Football isn't a game that can be analysed by statistics because at three quarter time Carlton had dominated the game up to that stage with possessions and inside 50's was 50 to 28 in their favour and they were down by 14 points. Go figure. Players seemed pretty tired in the last quarter but not sure whether that was due to the new substitute rule or the fact that it was the first 'real' game of the season. The Blues will win against the new Gold Coast team next week and Richmond will find it even harder against the Saints but the Tiger fans would be happy with that effort against Carlton.

 

Geelong 6.12.48 Defeated St Kilda 6.11.47

The Cats had kicked only 1 goal up to half way through the 3^rd quarter so it remains a puzzle as to how they won the game. Older heads prevailed for Geelong and when the pressure was on they responded. A dozen goals in a game of football tells you how tight the game was with backlines dominating. Bartel was the best for the Cats and Lenny Hayes ditto for the Saints. Goals were hard to come by so power forwards Reiwoldt and Mooney didn't contribute greatly to their respective team's score although Saint Nick played his usual hard at the ball game but found himself competing against 3 opposition players each time he went for a mark. The Cats travel to Perth next week to take on Freo and the Saints meet the improving Tigers at the MCG. St Kilda and Geelong will figure in the finals action in September.

 

Collingwood 24.11.155 Defeated Port Adelaide 12.8.80

The result was expected but in the 3^rd quarter Power got to within 16 points of the Magpies after trailing by 54 midway through the second quarter! The Pies simply put the foot on the gas and it was rather one sided from the 20 minute mark of the 3^rd quarter as they piled on 10 of the next 11 goals. Collingwood starts at the top end of the ladder and the Power at the bottom end after that first round scoreline showing a 75 point margin. Might be how it pans out at season end for the two teams. The usual players for Collingwood dominated such as Pendlebury and Swan but the veteran Ben Johnson might have done enough to take the best on ground. Port's game plan was not helped with a bad knee injury to Jay Schultz in the 2^nd quarter and he was stretchered off. Thomas from Port, not Collingwood, played a great game for them with 27 possessions and Westhoff out played the returning Collingwood prodigal son Tarrant to kick 4 goals for the Power. Port fans might see some hope for the side considering they ran down a 58 point deficit to get within 16 but that effort left little in their tank when the Pies applied the pressure again. Port plays West Coast at AAMi next week and Collingwood meets North Melbourne.

 

Adelaide 16.9.105 Defeated Hawthorn 12.13.85

A great game of football in the second half and the Crows just kept plugging away and seemed to wear the Hawks down. Rioli was at times brilliant but the loss of Sewell for Hawthorn was a telling blow. The final score was not a real indication of how close the game was. Had the Hawks kicked straight early it might have been too great a deficit for the Crows to make up. In the end 25 scoring shots apiece and a 20 point victory to Adelaide tells a story. Mitchell and Burgoyne played well for the Hawks and Dangerfield and Stevens were prominent for the Crows. Hawthorn should get their season back on track against Melbourne next week and Adelaide has the bye.

 

Fremantle 13.16 94 Defeated Brisbane 14.8.92

Hard to read anything into this result as the game was full of errors but nevertheless a close contest. Brown copped a bad facial injury and the Dockers should have capitalised more on his absence. These are the games that Freo will need to win to equal last year's effort and with no substitutes available for Brisbane for much of the last quarter the Dockers were able to snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Pavlich and Sandilands played well for the Dockers and the Lions veteran Simon Black seemed to be doing it on his own at times. Next week might be a good indication of where the Dockers are when they play Geelong at home. Brisbane plays the Western Bulldogs who were thrashed by Essendon.

 

Essendon 16.17.113 Defeated the Bulldogs 8.10.58

This defeat for the Bulldogs is embarrassing. This win for the Bombers is an inspirational start to the season. Maybe tipsters should take the opportunity to review ladder positions they forecast prior to round 1. If Essendon play like that and can win 12 games they will finish in the 8. The Bulldogs have been touted as top two contenders? Hmmmm. The win was big enough to see Essendon sitting on top of the ladder at the end of round 1 but those lofty heights can cause severe nosebleed if you are not used to the altitude. It was strange listening to the commentary team which included Matthew Knights the former Bomber coach. Wonder what he thought about the win….really!!  The return of Hille to Essendon is a huge plus and he dominated around the ground in this game and also took the mark of the day according to the commentators. Jobe Watson continues to be the main ballgetter for the Dons and he was ably assisted by Brett Stanton. Not so many outstanding players for a very miserable Bulldog performance. Rocket Rod will have to lift his team and their confidence next week against Brisbane while Essendon could win two in a row when they meet Sydney.

 

Melbourne 11.18.84 Drew with Sydney 11.18.84

What can you say? Both teams slugging it out in the last quarter and no doubt players very tired when the siren sounded with the scores locked on 84 points each. It was poor kicking for goal by both sides. Some tipping comps give you a point for the draw, others zip. Trengrove, Grimes, Maloney and Davey were the best for the Dees and for the Swans O'Keefe, Jack and McVeigh played well. Goodes was well down on his normal game. Splitting the points is better than getting zero but no doubt leaves a bad taste in the mouths of players. Sydney meets a resurgent Essendon next week and the Dees face the Hawks.

 

West Coast 13.14.92 Defeated North Melbourne 13.10.88

The game was, as expected, even all day. Each time West Coast kicked ahead by 2 or 3 goals North would get back into the game and at one stage in the final quarter they even led by a couple of points. Not a memorable game skills wise, 2 bad injuries for West Coast, but finally a win on the board for them to start the season. Not sure how bad the injury is to LeCras but he is the main goalkicker for the Eagles and he will be sorely missed. Masten seems to have done a knee but the extent of the injury is unknown. These losses will not help West Coast improve on last year's result. Veterans Cox and Embley played well for West Coast. North's answer to Judd, Andrew Swallow, was amongst their best but strangely enough Brent Harvey had a quiet day and was well held. The Eagles are a chance against Port next week but North have no hope against Collingwood.

 

 The AFL Preview is sent via an automatic email list. To join or leave the list is easy. 

Please visit our website at http://www.footy.com.au/fts/newsletters.htm

 OR

 If you have difficulty with the above please email lists@footy.com.au

 

[AFL-Preview] Fwd: AFL Season 2011 Round 1

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John Loffler <bizloff@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Subject: AFL Season 2011 Round 1
To: AFL Preview List <afl-preview@lists.com.au>

2011 SEASON

AFL PREVIEW ROUND 1

 

At last the 2011 season is upon us. As a Collingwood supporter it has taken this correspondent a great deal of self control not to have sent you all a few exclamations of joy regarding the wonderful result experienced by thousands of football lovers at the 2 Grand Finals last year. And the pleasure is actually heightened for Magpie supporters when they know that those 'other' supporters that intensely dislike Collingwood have to suffer the Pies' win in furious silence! I was unable to get tickets for the drawn Grand Final but had an exciting time at a local hotel a couple of torpedo punts' distance from the MCG and I was amongst lots of Pies supporters as we suffered the highs and lows of a great game of football. I scored a ticket to the Grand Final replay and alongside one son (the other relinquished his ticket due to work commitments hence my good fortune) watched a wicked game of football the result of which I knew but refused to admit to myself half way through the second quarter. Another close game like the previous week would have seen me in a hospital coronary unit for sure. The real beauty of the Collingwood win is that they have a team good enough to do it twice unless Mick pulls a West Coast Eagles trick and misses a year!!

The previews and reviews this season are coming to you from northern China, a place so cold that the tears brought to your eyes by a biting wind are being frozen to your cheeks as they fall helping to form a sort of face ice sculpture that looks like a botox fill gone awfully wrong!! I arrived in Beijing leaving a temperature of over 30 Celsius to a -10C!! Dressed in my short-sleeved shirt and a pair of jeans the cold nearly killed me and added to that temperature shock was the fact that the plane landed at a remote part of the airport so we had to disembark and get a bus to the terminal while my body suffered cold never experienced before. Stayed just the one day in Beijing where I pulled all my best winter gear from the suitcase for the trip further north to my destination near the Inner Mongolian border and located further north than Vladivostok to be greeted by a minus 24!! Last season the reviews came from Norseman (WA desert) and Wangaratta in northern Victoria where I thought (stupidly in hindsight) the winter temperature was rather cold.

But being an AFL fan in China presents you with other problems such as the great firewall of China, not the Great Wall. Filtered information and blocked websites can frustrate you until you find the way around it all.

Enough about my location, let's talk footy!

As a tipping information preview over the years we have steered away from presenting you with columns of stats and player injuries and lots of other info you can get from a multitude of newspapers around the country as well as a million websites. What we will try to assist you with is that tipping competition you are in where bragging rights for the winner holds as much pride for the individual as does winning the premiership by the AFL team!! Not quite but in your fishpond who cares?

The great stories that came to light during the AFL off season started with the indecent assault allegations against two Collingwood players a day after their GF win. That went nowhere. Then we had the first Fevola incident which also went nowhere. The second incident unfortunately did go badly for Fev but his fans can catch him at a Casey Scorpions game in the VFL where he will kick 122 goals this year. The St Kilda stuff was not good for the club and the aftermath with Ricky Nixon was really getting distasteful. Me? I'm still scratching my head about just who the young lady in question is and the agenda but I did miss a bit while travelling.

Lots of player changes, none bigger than the Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast Suns and the coaching switch of Bomber Thompson to Essendon after so many heated denials. Maybe Essendon really wants a burnt out assistant coach to help James, who knows? Seems to be working okay so far.

Our target this year is to score around the 68% - 75% accuracy on tipping. That will win you the money, the glory, the recognition. I am not sure just how many games are being played because in rounds 4, 5 and 6 there are 3 teams having byes. Is it 176 games? Your tipping target is to get a score of between 120 and 132 correct from that 176. Past years has seen a score of around 121 just about do the trick. Good luck for 2011.

 

Carlton V Richmond at the MCG Thursday Night

There are a couple of things we can be sure about with regard to these two teams. Richmond will not make the finals this year and Carlton will not win 2 premierships in the next 5 years. Another thing you can be sure about – Carlton will win this game. The Blues have slaughtered the Tigers in the last 2 meetings and not a lot has changed in either team to make a tipster think there will be an upset. A couple of key players out for Carlton and Foley back for Richmond but no Cousins. Richmond is in for another tough year and I expect the Blues to remain at about the same level.

Carlton by 42

 

Geelong V St Kilda at the MCG Friday Night

Grand Final and finals combatants in past years so it will be interesting to see how the Cats survive the Ablett departure and how the Saints survive the sensationalism of a bad pre-season press and, er, um, some over-exposure. If Ling and Chapman don't play for the Cats and Mooney remains doubtful Geelong might find this a bit hard first up facing a vengeful Saints team. Kozi needs to stand up at full forward for the Saints and not leave all the work to Reiwoldt. The Saints look as good as last year, the Cats need to sharpen their claws. Tipsters might like to try a bet each way on this if you're in more than one comp.

St Kilda by 17

 

Collingwood V Port Adelaide at Etihad Saturday afternoon.

The Pies have 60,000 members and the game is being held at a venue that holds 50,000! That's an interesting arrangement. The Magpies should be too good for an improving Power who must have drawn the short straw to get this game as their season opener. On top of that the AFL have seen fit to make Collingwood fans wait 3 weeks before they can raise the glorious 2010 flag at the MCG when they play Carlton. At least then the crowd will be 80,000 plus. While the NAB cup is no indicator of form in the 1^st round Port did get bundled out while Collingwood went on to win the trophy. Read what you will into those results. It will get a bit boring if the Pies win the 2011 GF as well don't you think? Not another cup!!! A Port win here would be a real upset.

Collingwood by 51

 

Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Saturday Night

Both these teams promised a lot in 2010 but neither delivered. The Hawks might rest Hodge until next week and the Crows defence is no longer their Bockline. When in doubt the home team looks a good bet. The Hawks can win the game without Hodge but the Crow backline will have their hands full with Buddy, Roughead and Rioli. Last season Hawthorn played their finals game against Collingwood in round 21 and didn't show a lot after that so they will be aware that a good start to the season, especially against Craig's Adelaide mob, is paramount. Expect a close game.

Adelaide by 16

 

Brisbane V Fremantle at the Gabba Saturday Night

This is the hardest game of the opening round from which to pick a winner. When in doubt? Brisbane is in for a hard season and needs to capitalise on pre-season injuries at Fremantle but the Dockers still have more depth and should start their season with a win. Jonathon Brown has not kicked a ball in anger yet this year so he might be a bit underdone and if they put McFarlane on Brown then the Dockers will get some run from half back. Pavlich and Sandilands remain the keys for Freo and expect Hill to start the year well. For tipsters, again a bit each way but based on last year's form the Dockers should win even if it's an away game for them.

Fremantle by 11

 

Essendon V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Sunday afternoon

The Bombers look a lot better so far this season under the coaching of James Hird. The real stuff starts with this match but all that improvement will not be enough to knock the Bulldogs off their game. A lot was expected of the Bulldogs last year and they just didn't have real match winners in the side when it counted. Barry Hall will be hard to stop but the team has a lot of other options when they go forward. Based on last season you could not expect the Bombers to win this so don't tip them.

Western Bulldogs by 33

 

Melbourne V Sydney at the MCG Sunday afternoon

It's time the Demons made a bold start to the season to give their supporters some hope. Their high draft picks of previous years need to play some good footy. Sydney will be under a new coach after the departure of Roos so there is a lot to prove for both teams. Maybe we will have a draw in the first round but remember the Demons gave the Swans a real hiding the last time they met and how much has changed in the personnel of both sides since then? Captain Kirk and Roos gone for Sydney and a couple of Melbourne boys jumped ship – or were pushed. My tip is the Demons but it might be a close one.

Melbourne by 6

 

West Coast Eagles V North Melbourne

The Eagles and North will both struggle to make the 8 this year and in West Coast's favour is that the game is being played at home. That might be just enough advantage to get them over the line. Neither team really has the cattle to beat the top eight contenders but there seems to be a group of about 9 teams that are all on about par and will give us some close games during the year as well as cause the occasional upset. I just don't know where the Eagles are heading. They have a few good players and with Cox in the ruck they should win a lot more ball but they also have some average footballers who badly need to improve their basic skills which caused an inexcusable amount of turnovers last year. Pretty much the same for North with some good young players in amongst the more experienced but North will still be an average team this year. Expect the game to go down to the wire.

West Coast by 19

 

Gold Coast Suns – bye.

A definite win here for the new team.

 The AFL Preview is sent via an automatic email list. To join or leave the list is easy. 

Please visit our website at http://www.footy.com.au/fts/newsletters.htm

 OR 

If you have difficulty with the above please email lists@footy.com.au

 

[AFL-Preview] NAB Cup Grand Final

NAB Cup Grand Final

Hello readers and AFL lovers (assuming you are not one and the same). We have reached the start of the 2011 season and tonight is the final of the NAB cup. It has been the practice of this establishment to totally ignore the NAB cup and for good reason. Winners of this prestigious award don't usually do so well during the normal season and let's use Carlton as the prime example.

In this case, we have two combatants that are traditional rivals, one team being the ultimate football machine of 2010, Collingwood, while the other team, Essendon, has not had the best of times of late. The make- up of the teams is usually interesting in NAB cup matches as coaches give their new players a taste of the big time, they experiment with plays and generally try to keep a low profile about what they expect as the result.
The Magpies have started the season strongly, have recruited well and find themselves in the unusual position of playing in an NAB cup final. Essendon has had a change of coaches after the tawdry dismissal of Matty Knights at season's end in 2010. But oh, what a change there has been in their playing fortunes with the recruitment of favourite sons James Hird and the stressed out and tired Mark Thompson from Geelong. When we chat about the footy while parked around the water cooler most of us would say that sacking the coach never fixes the problem when you have average players. And in most cases that is true but it seems that the arrival of Hird and Bomber Thompson has lifted the performance of Essendon players to a level not seen in recent years under Matthew Knights. While it's true that coaches place little credibility on the NAB cup game results it is also true that those in charge of the finances at the AFL clubs don't mind an additional few hundred thousand dollars being banked pre-season. So to the game.

It will be a sell out because there are 60,000 Magpie members and 40,000 Essendon members. Essendon members and supporters will be there to see a new, invigorated and challenging team for 2011 and the Magpie members and supporters will be there just to watch the Pies thrash the Bombers as usual. A repeat of the 1990 Grand Final is on the cards.

The Collingwood interchange bench which includes Davis, Blair, Sidebottom, Beams and Johnson is good enough to be picked in any team as their star players. Didak returns from holidays and for the Bombers Hille returns after that knee injury early last year. Dustin Fletcher has asked that his pension card be put on hold another year and he will line up against Travis Cloke and although that might be a good tussle the sheer weight of numbers of Collingwood players coming forward will swamp the Bomber backs. Missing for the Pies will be their captain Maxwell who was cleaned up by an Eagles player in Perth last weekend, possibly the only positive that West Coast can take from that game. Magpie fans will be watching new recruit Andrew Krakaouer with great interest and it is hoped he will fit into this premiership team beautifully.

First quarter will be hectic, fast paced and expect the Pies to be seriously challenged. Collingwood to draw away in the second quarter. The Bombers have really played above themselves in this pre-season competition and the pressure and sustained effort might start to tell in the third. Collingwood to have a big break by the end of the third. Cancel the last quarter for lack of interest because nobody wants their star players to get injured and Essendon will not make up a 7 goal deficit.

Final score Collingwood 118 to Essendon 71.

Hopefully this game is the opener to a great 2011 season and I look forward to providing you with previews and reviews that entertain. Like most things Australian, this column has seen fit to sell out to Chinese interests, as your correspondent is currently working in Daqing, north-west China. It's the way of the world folks.

See you all again in a fortnight for the real thing!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The AFL Preview is sent via an automatic email list. To join or leave the list is easy.

Please visit our website at http://www.footy.com.au/fts/newsletters.htm

OR

If you have difficulty with the above please email lists@footy.com.au