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AFL Preview Rd 11
Hi Tipsters! Would you believe we are at the half way mark of the season? There has been 80 games played so far and some of us are struggling to have 50 tipping points to our credit. As predicted the teams that are placed between 5th and 14th on the ladder are showing some inconsistent form, sometimes good enough to beat the better teams and other times bad enough to lose inexplicably. But then that’s what a tipping comp is all about isn’t it? Over the past couple of weeks 3’s to 5’s have been good scores but the trick is to pick at least one upset but better two. That always gives you the edge and provides you with a statistical term called TC – Tipping Creep. Not “creep” as in low life and weird, but “creep” as in sneakily edging away from the rest by subterfuge....and inspired tipping.
From the AFL teams point of view we can see that as the season advances towards round 22 the competition for a place in the finals by that middle level of teams will be intense and most likely not decided until the final siren sounds on that last game of the round.
Still the press continues to find distracting articles to stick under our noses, such as Ablett moving to the Gold Coast for a small pay rise of $500,000 a year!! Get the Nikes on Gary and DO IT! Half a million buys my loyalty. (Did you read that Dave?) In the west it has been refreshing to see only accolades and praise heaped on Fremantle while the Eagles cop a real flaying by journalists. The worm seems to have turned! Needless to say the preview is not necessarily the opinion of anybody who deems to know more than you dear tipster so after 3 disastrous tipping weeks make up your own minds. I can feel a change in my water. Take care!
Richmond V St Kilda Friday at Etihad
The mighty Tigers knocked off Port Power last week in their first win of the season but there is little hope of a repeat performance by them against The Saints. Not a lot more can be said about this game, only the margin to decide on.
Saints by 61
Carlton V Melbourne Saturday at the MCG
The Blues are having a bit of an up and down season and we are beginning to expect them to lose after a good win the week before. But they are playing Melbourne, great improvers this year, who are not good enough to win this game. I have noticed some experts reckon this is going to be close. They must be joking.
Carlton by 44
Adelaide V Fremantle Saturday at AAMI
Goodbye game for Tyson Edwards of the Crows but probably another milestone for Fremantle who have not won in Adelaide since 1772, or thereabouts. The game will be a lot closer than Freo will like but surely on form they can win. Pav is continuing his good form and the Dockers have far too many avenues to goal compared to the Crows who have to work out why they are falling away so badly in the last quarter.
Fremantle by 11
North Melbourne V Brisbane Saturday at Etihad
Can North reverse the 10 goal hiding of last week as we have seen them do a couple of times this year? After 5 consecutive losses and a surprise win last week against Collingwood can the Brisbane Lions string together two wins? Jonathan Brown is back in form so the avenue to goals for Brisbane should enable them to kick a winning score. North needs to recover from their trip west as well but they have a tall forward line against an injury depleted Brisbane back line. The Etihad stadium factor will help Brisbane more. This game will be close for a while unless North allows the Lions a 6 goal break in the first quarter as is their wont.
Brisbane by 29
West Coast V Geelong at Subiaco Sunday
The Cats copped a mauling from Freo last trip across the Nullabor but the Eagles would need a 20 goal improvement to stop Geelong from evening up their second western trek. Whoosha is under extreme pressure to hold his coaching job at West Coast if you are to believe the local papers while at Geelong Thommo is under extreme pressure to hang on to Gary Ablett. With 12 All Australians and 3 grand final appearances the stocks at Geelong remain high with or without Gazza. The real puzzle remains at West Coast with players like Hansen and Lynch really out of favour but the Eagles are still not kicking goals. Ashley has kicked something like 20 goals in 3 games in the WAFL. Mind you the delivery into the forward 50 by the Eagles leaves a lot to be desired. Goals by Mooney, Podsiadly and Johnson will be enough to beat West Coast.
Geelong by 36
Sydney V Essendon Sunday at the SCG
Expect this to be a tight game even though the Swans have lost their last 4 and the Bombers have won their last 3. Home ground advantage and the Essendon loss of Fletcher might see Sydney get back on the winning board – just.
Sydney by 12
Hawthorn V Port Adelaide Sunday at the MCG
This is one of the more difficult games from which to pick a winner with the Hawks winning their last t3 and the Power losing their last 3. Port lost to Melbourne and Richmond in consecutive weeks and now must face a pretty ordinary Hawthorn at the MCG. Players lost to both sides due to injuries and suspension is about the same. The loss of Buddy, again for a high bump, is a big one for Hawthorn to take. Toss a coin.
Hawthorn by 13
Collingwood V Western Bulldogs Sunday at Etihad
The Pies upset loss to the Brisbane Lions last week has resulted in a bit of pressure on them going into this game against the Western Bulldogs who also lost in an upset to the Bombers. Last time they met, just a few weeks ago, go figure, Collingwood had the measure of the Bullies. The Pies cannot afford 3 consecutive losses. Mick and Eddie looking grumpy for almost a month is too much to bear while I love seeing Rocket scratching what small amount of hair he has left explaining why the Bulldogs lost – again.
Collingwood by 9
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