[AFL-Preview] Round 14

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Don't forget that this round starts on Thursday evening.

The last time I drove across the Nullabor there was over 900 miles of dirt. These days you don't even have to pack an esky because there are roadhouses, or travel stops they call them, every 200 kilometres or less and of course the whole trip can be done on bitumen. 3000 kilometres with a small white dog as the passenger is as big a challenge as Melbourne will face against St Kilda on Sunday. An interesting observation when you travel from one side of the country to the other is the changing of allegiances from WA based teams to SA based teams then to Victorian teams. Arguments, or shall we say uninformed debate, at places like Border Village, Port Augusta and Border Town regarding AFL teams and their likelihood or otherwise of success while drinking Tasmanian and Queensland beer makes for an interesting social experiment – none of which is worth repeating here!
As a tipster I am still getting over the split round not occurring until round 13 rather than round 11 because we had to suffer another two weeks of inexplicable form reversals none of which assisted our tipping scores. It seems my previews have provided a reasonable, if not a leading, score in tipping comps but they have lacked vision, bravery, foresight and sadly, correctness.
So now, residing back in Victoria after a 40 year self imposed exile, reading the daily musings of many AFL experts in the local rag, experts who discuss teams other than West Coast and Fremantle, it is fervently hopes that the information supplied to you, the tipster, will carry a little more accuracy.
 
Carlton V Brisbane Lions played at Etihad Thursday night
Both teams are playing poorly so it is a matter of which team plays the least poorly on the night. If Fevola could have kicked 8 for the Lions they might have come close. Dream on because the whole Brown Fevola duo are injured. Where are the goals going to come from? Time to recall Bradshaw! Oops, he's with Sydney. The Brisbane game plan has come completely off the rails and continued derailment is expected.
Carlton by 29
 
Hawthorn V Western Bulldogs at the MCG Friday night
Usually Friday night is a poor start to the weekend's tipping so this tip should be taken lightly. The Hawks are going for 7 in a row. Impossible.  Although the same word was used as Buddy streamed down the wing bouncing the ball and slotting a goal from the wrong side for a left footer while being hotly, but not speedily, pursued by an Essendon opponent. Not once but twice!! Those who watched were privy to possibly the two best goals of the season. All that aside, this week the Hawks meet the Bulldogs and opportunities for Buddy to be doing that sort of show will be somewhat less. Also, the Hawks need to counter Barry Hall at the other end. The game will be a great test for both teams but the early form of Hawthorn should not be ignored. The Doggies need to consolidate.
Western Bulldogs by 31

Fremantle V Port Adelaide at Subiaco Saturday
Here's a great chance for the Dockers to consolidate ladder position. The Power tends to rise to the challenge in games like this so they will take it up to the Dockers early but the purple haze will prevail eventually. When the Power plays woefully they lose by heaps. This could be one of those days. However, if the Dockers play woefully they will be beaten. As you can see there is a fine line between levels of consistency but everybody, apart from the idiot Port supporters at Border Village, will hope for a Freo victory. It's safe.
Fremantle by 28
 
Collingwood V West Coast Eagles at Etihad Saturday night
If the Eagles can come within 10 goals of the Pies in this game then they can be well satisfied with their effort. Down on confidence, down in good players, going down, in the basement you will find West Coast. The Eagles are not quite in Wooden Spoon position but this game will have them well placed to take it out! Another thing about being in Vic is the number of Collingwood supporters you have the privilege of chatting to. Not a Malthouse lover amongst them! Do the West Coast supporters know this? All Magpie folk are hoping that Josh Fraser gets to play his 200th. All Magpie folk are hoping that their team kicks a little more accurately.
Collingwood by 77
 
Adelaide V Essendon at AAMI on Saturday night
This is one of the tougher games to pick this round and if the Bombers had been able to notch just one win in the last 3 games some temptation would be there to pick them. On form it's the Crows. Since when has Essendon worried about form? For the tipster the main concern is which Adelaide team will turn up on the day? And 2 games in a row at AAMI? The Bombers gave not won at this ground for some 3 years so they will have to bring their best game to win Saturday night. Is a Bomber win a prediction based on vision, expertise or just plain stupidity? We'll see.
Essendon by 11
 
Geelong V North Melbourne at Skilled on Sunday
The Cats will come out licking their wounds after their loss against the Saints and North will be standing in their way – but not for long. North has been playing well but this game is way out of their class. It seems Chapman will be back but the Cats lose Johnson and Moonie, both suspended after the 'blood bath' against the Saints last week. How many of you saw Geelong held goal less in a half of football last week? How many of you saw North beat Carlton and Port in the last two weeks? While Geelong cannot take the game easy they should account for North.
Geelong by 68
 
Richmond V Sydney at the MCG Sunday
The Tigers have been doing well of late but one would think that the Swans will be far too good for a building Richmond even with the game at the 'G'. Roos was not happy with his Sydney team losing to Collingwood again last round. This week should have him smiling again.
Sydney by 38
 
St Kilda V Melbourne at Etihad Sunday Night
In the event of wet weather the roof will be closed so no slippery ball to help even the odds a bit. St Kilda will be on the bit if they win this by less than 12 goals. Whether they are still reeling after the Baker incident last week is debatable but if they can win regularly without Reiwoldt then winning without Baker shouldn't prove too hard. 9 weeks was a bit harsh and it will be interesting to see what changes teams make to the instructions they give to their taggers. Even more interesting will be the instructions given to umpires. "Open your eyes" might be a good start.
St Kilda by 75
 
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Hawthorn14.18.102 Defeated Essendon 13.8.86
Both teams kicked 9 goals each in 3 quarters then kick 9 goals between them in the final quarter. If you didn't watch the two Franklin goals in the last quarter you missed some freaky stuff. Apart from that we see that the Hawks have won their 6th game in a row, not an easy feat this season. Conversely the Bombers lost their 3rd in a row so their aspirations for a final 8 spot is doubtful. Buddy kicked 5 for the game and Muston booted 3 while for Essendon Aaron Davey kicked 3 terrific goals.

Fremantle14.12.96 Defeated Carlton 12.15.87
The loss of Kruezer for the Blues with a season ending knee injury was far worse for them than losing this game. Carlton supporters went away from the game wondering what the result would have been if their team had kicked straight. Let's face it, a scoreline of 2.12 at half time was hardly putting scoreboard pressure on the Dockers who did get a bit of scare in the last 10 minutes as the Blues closed to within a couple of kicks. But by then the horse had bolted and the win was a pretty significant one for Freo who had players like Pavlich, Hasleby and Bradley well down on their game. Betts kicked 4 for Carlton, a couple of gems in there as well but Barlow for Fremantle was equally as good with 4 goals. The Dockers young brigade will welcome a rest as they set themselves for finals. Not sure where Carlton will finish, their inconsistency remains a problem.

Richmond 15.15.105 Defeated Brisbane 12.14.86
One wonders whether the Brisbane based press gave the Lions the same treatment for losing to Richmond as did the Eagles get from the WA press? Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 so the miracles continue. Tipping these games is not made easier when players like Black for the Lions are omitted at the last minute. There goes 3 possessions you didn't bank on Brisbane not getting. Ben Cousins is finding some mid season form and Riewoldt is keeping the family name in lights while Nick takes an injury rest for the Saints. He kicked 3 to keep his nose ahead for the Coleman medal, as bizarre as that would be having the leading goalkicker in the bottom teams. The Lions will struggle to be better than middle of the road to mediocre at this stage while Tiger fans will be pretty happy with what they are seeing so far this season. It will be a huge battle for the wooden spoon between 3 teams.

North Melbourne 19.15.129 Defeated Port Adelaide 14.9.93
At times the scores got a little closer than was expected but the final result did not let most tipsters down. Thomas didn't kicked 7 again, that honour was left to Richmond reject Schulz for Port! North's Harvey polled well at last year's Brownlow and the 3 votes he got for this game will have him up with the leaders again in this year's count. 32 touches and 2 goals. North has won 7 games this year so far and is knocking on the door of the 8!! Say what?

Western Bulldogs 17.17.119 Defeated West Coast 9.5.59
For some reason, maybe flight sickness, it took the Bulldogs 3 quarters to get going. In the last they obliterated any semblance of fight from West Coast to win the game comfortably. Whoosha keeps talking about short term pain for the greater good but nobody is listening because he has predicted premierships and improvement – neither of which is on the horizon for West Coast. The Bullies will be there again this year they just have to make sure they win enough games to finish 4th. Hall kicked 3 for them and LeCras was a lone hand up forward with 3 for the Eagles.

St Kilda 10.10.70 Defeated Geelong 6.10.46
The Saints somehow managed to keep the Cats to just 3 points in a half of football. Amazing when you look at the average scores Geelong has kicked of late. It was all St Kilda in the 2nd half, a result that will engender interest in the grand final, should these two team meet there in September.

Collingwood 13.18.96 Defeated Sydney 10.11.71
It was the same old story for these two teams with a win going to the Pies for the umpteenth time in a row and the game being played at the ANZ stadium. The result was never going to be different and at no stage did it look like the Swans would get close enough to Collingwood to win.

Adelaide 16.21.117 Defeated Melbourne 11.7.73
It was all over by half time, with the Crows leading by 41 points. The Demons got a few back in the third quarter but conceded them again towards the end, whilst Adelaide's inaccurate kicking saved Melbourne from a worse thrashing. Matthew Bate scored 4 of the Dee's goals, and the Crows had 10 different goal-kickers led by Kurt Tippett with four goals. Adelaide have lifted themselves off the bottom of the ladder into 14th spot, and are within 2 points of 13th placed Melbourne.
 
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AFL Preview Split Round 13
Okay is it just me or is this season proving to be the hardest tipping year of all? The form reversals of some teams are diabolical to say the least. My apologies for a shorter than normal preview, but I am about to embark on a trip that the Eagles and Dockers do every second weekend and cross the Nullabor. The teams fly over places like Balladonia, Caiguna, Mundrabilla, Border Village and Caiguna but I am going to experience these places on a personal level. Travelling from football state to football state is not as traumatic as say driving from Melbourne to Cairns during which you cross enemy territory and experience significant language differences which, while scary, are not as frightening as experiencing differences in football codes. Only one thing worse than moving between Aussie Rules and Rugby country and that is flying from Aussie Rules country to Gridiron country. I wonder if Slim Dusty ever wrote a song about that? This week is the split round which used to be at the end of round 11 which is the halfway point of the season so I am a bit nonplussed about the split being at round 13. There may be a scientific explanation for it but I must have missed it in all the pre-season write ups.
So at this stage of the season the ladder is looking frighteningly, or boringly, the same as last year. The teams that finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd seem to be a lot stronger than the other 13 teams. So, while finding a place in the finals might be a small victory of sorts for teams 4 to 8, that's just what it is – small.

Hawthorn V Essendon Friday at the MCG
The Hawks are on a roll and they had an easy win last week against the Crows, but then most teams do. The Bombers were walloped by the Cats last week, but then most teams are. Form predicts a Hawks win.
Essendon by 11
 
Carlton V Fremantle at Etihad Saturday
Both teams suffered a loss last week by about the same margin and the rewards for winning this game are high, top four status firmed a bit. The young guys at Freo look tired and the form of the Blues is inconsistent. Could be a draw.
Carlton by 1
 
Brisbane Lions V Richmond at the Gabba Saturday
Brisbane is playing so poorly they could lose this game against a rejuvenated Richmond albeit their rejuvenation is restricted to other mediocre teams. It's jungle warfare out there with Lions and Tigers.
Brisbane by 21
 
North Melbourne V Port Adelaide at Etihad Sunday
Based on form you would have to say how far North? Port are back to being woeful but some form reversals this year have been mind boggling.
North by 22
 
West Coast V Western Bulldogs at Subiaco
West Coast is a team under siege and there will be no lowering of the castle drawbridge here. The moat is full of crocodiles and snapping, biting dogs.
Western Bulldogs by 41
 
St Kilda v Geelong MCG Friday night
Here's the grand final replay take 2 for the season. The Cats are even better this year than last it seems so the Saints will find this a pretty tough contract.
Geelong by 19
 
Sydney V Collingwood at ANZ Stadium Saturday Night
The Pies really struggled against the young Demons again last week and this won't be any easier. Sydney is in a bit of form but history shows that the Pies like this big stage.
 
Collingwood by 26

Adelaide V Melbourne at AAMI Sunday
Battle of the basement here. The last time they played it was the Dees' first win or Adelaide's first win? It was obviously memorable. The only thing separating these teams is home ground advantage so it's the Crows – just.
Adelaide by 7
 
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North Melbourne 14.13.97 Defeated Carlton 10.8.68

Friday night football brought us another upset with North winning this match basically in the first quarter. The Blues had to play catch up football and were not good enough. It’s becoming impossible to tip these two teams consistently.  Lindsay Thomas stopped annoying players and kicked a few goals – 7 actually. A match winning effort. Betts kicked 5 at the other end for Carlton but the Blues need to ask that question of whether they are fair dinkum.

 

Hawthorn 19.10.124 Defeated Adelaide 11.11.77

 

The result was as predicted but considering the form of both teams the margin was surprising. Hawks seem to be getting stronger.  When Hodge, who normally plays off half back, kicks 3 goals then the opposition has a problem. Franklin, Roughead and Rioli all kicked 3 while Tippett kicked 4 goals for the Crows. Not sure where Hawthorn are heading because of their very ordinary start to the season while Adelaide are going to finish in the bottom 5.

 

Geelong 23.16.154 Defeated Essendon 12.11.83

 

In this game there was another huge score by the Cats who were held by a spirited Essendon in the first half – sort of. Goals by Varcoe (5), Podsiadly (5) and Johnson (4) were enough to beat the Bombers.  Hurley kicked 5 for Essendon – a great effort in these circumstances. The Bombers are going to fight for a place in the 8 and Geelong will finish top of the ladder. This Cats team is one of the best in 20 – 30 years.

 

Sydney 14.9.93 Defeated Port Adelaide 8.7.55

 

Another sad day for the Power supporters watching their team at home go down to Sydney who have found enough form to win the last two games and firm themselves into the top 8. It is not recommended to tip Port too often in the future.   Goodes played well which was a welcome return to form and he seems to be a barometer of the Swans’ performance.  Early season success for Port may be put down to youthful enthusiasm and based on their performances over the past few weeks they won’t make the 8. Sydney will be where they were last year.

 

Richmond 19.12.126 Defeated West Coast 11.11.77

 

The big story here was not the huge score the Tigers kicked. It was not the fact that they won the game. It was Reiwoldt kicking 10 goals for Richmond, almost enough to beat West Coast on his own. But was that the biggest news? No. Reiwoldt didn’t give an interview to Fox, that’s the headline.....for Fox anyway.  The Tigers were made to look good by the Eagles who were woeful and the BS that Worsfold keeps feeding the management and the supporters has been found out. At the start of the season the prediction was that West Coast would make the 8. The question hanging over West Coast’s head now is – will they win their first Wooden Spoon? Richmond are on the improve but they still lack quality players and until they can get a couple of players at that standard they will remain middle of the road.

 

Western Bulldogs 17.19.121 Defeated Brisbane 8.8.56

 

The Lions’ slump continued, apart from the surprise win against Collingwood, and, in this game they were simply outclassed all day. Hall continued his good form and kicked 6 goals. The Bullies needed that one.  Injuries to Brisbane have been diabolical and it shows that the success of a team is really dependent on their available playing list. Brown is an added injury to the Lions they could well do without and it might be a godsend that they play Richmond next week. The Bulldogs look okay but it’s when they come up against any of the other top 4 teams that we will really know. Up to now they have been lacking.

 

St Kilda 12.13.85 Defeated Fremantle 10.07.67

 

St Kilda had the measure of Freo right from the first bounce and Sandilands and Pav both had off days which didn’t help. Milne bobbed up in his 200^th game with 4 very good goals. The Saints have taken a couple of weeks to adapt without Nick Reiwoldt and whatever coach Lyons has set up it seems to be working...at last.  The Saints have ground out some good wins against good opposition and they have easily beaten the pretenders. When you lose a player like Nick it takes time to make that adjustment.  Fremantle haven’t gone back to their old ways it’s just that the young guys are getting tired so a week off mid season may re-energise them. The Dockers should fill one of the places in the finals but it’s a matter of in which position they will finish.

 

Collingwood 9.22.76 Drew With Melbourne 11.10.76

 

First draw of the season but the result for Collingwood was as bad as the Eagles being beaten by Richmond yesterday. 31 shots to 21 shots for goal. Well done Dees, they improved by a point since they met last. Sometimes a draw can be handy with the extra 2 points but the Pies need to finish in the top 4 again this year. It seems they are the 3^rd best team in the AFL – same as last year. Melbourne was the worst team in the comp for a couple of years but they might just finish about 10 or 11 this year, a great improvement.

 

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AFL Preview Round 12

 

Good morning tipsters. A much better result last week with 6 but looking at the fixture for this week you will find that of the 8 games 5 could go either way. Based on tipping form so far this season those are scary odds!  North by a point and an Adelaide form reversal all worked against us.

This weekend we have a Monday game, Queen’s birthday I believe. If only Freddie Mercury knew we held a holiday in his honour!! Of course we had the long weekend last week in WA, one of the few times we are ahead of the East but a right pain if you want to watch the game on the box here. Days of Our Lives usually gets top billing or an episode of the 8^th re-run of Mash, followed by It’s Academic! In Norseman you get all these shows with the added weather feature of snow across the screens. The number of people injured in falls from rooftops in this town would amaze you. They have slipped and fallen while madly adjusting aerials which suffer from some form of rotational creep over a 24 hour period and need an occasional slap back into place. Norseman is a two hour township – 2 hours from Esperance, 2 hours from Kalgoorlie, 2 hours from Balladonia and 2 hours from reality. But the appearance of isolation is a false one because, while 49 is the mathematical answer in the Hitch Hikers Guide, Norseman is the geographical answer to “What town is the centre of the Universe?” Anybody who has travelled to or from the west knows that. Another aspect of the town is that it seems the further you move from Perth the less supporter there are for Eagles and Fremantle teams so in Norseman, post code 6443, you can walk down the main street, the only street really, and it’s actually safe to wear a Collingwood scarf, a Port Adelaide beanie, an All Blacks Guernsey (although some of these appear tattooed on) and Carlton socks without starting a brawl or even attracting some friendly banter. Sigh.....

Enjoy the round, the games and for those east of Ceduna, the long weekend. Good luck.

 

North Melbourne V Carlton Friday night at Etihad

 

The Blues could come out and play like clowns and North can come out and play like champions and who will get that tip right? But can North  string two wins in a row together? Can the Blues win 3 in a row? And what are the odds on there being two players, one from each team, bearing the christian name of Lachie? Are they related? All these questions will be answered by late Friday night.

 

Carlton by 39

 

Hawthorn V Adelaide Saturday at Aurora Tasmania

 

The Hawks are shooting for 5 in a row would you believe? Adelaide just keeps trying. McLeod is out. Edwards has retired. Hawthorn surely? It will be tight all day and somebody please tell Buddy not to bump anyone, ever, again.

 

Hawthorn by 11

 

Essendon V Geelong Saturday at Etihad

 

The Bombers were just pipped by the Swans last week in a close game but against Geelong they won’t get that close. The result is a lay down misere it’s just the margin we need to work out.

 

Geelong by 42

 

Port Adelaide V Sydney Saturday at AAMI

Two evenly matched sides based on form so this is a tough one to pick. When in doubt go the home side. The Power won 5 weeks ago then lost 4. The Swans lost 4 in a row then won last week. To maintain balance in their L’s and W’s it’s definitely Port.

Port Adelaide by 16

 

Richmond V West Coast Eagles Sunday at the MCG

 

I can’t help but think that this is a great opportunity for the Tigers to win their second game of the season. Just kidding. Here’s a useless stat for you – Richmond has not beaten the Eagles at the MCG since 2002. If ever there was a reason to pick the Tigers then that’s it. But I promised not to pick Richmond this year and so far I am running 10 to 1 on tipping points. 10 to 2 is still a good ratio if the Tigers get up for a win.

 

West Coast by 19

 

Western Bulldogs V Brisbane Sunday at Etihad

 

The Bulldogs need to get their season back on line after consecutive losses. The Lions will lose this one by more than 1 point. Staker faces Barry Hall again but don’t expect any fireworks there. Akermanis is out for the Doggies no doubt pondering whether to retire to a life of commentating and writing. I’ve seen his articles and he gets $150K for that drivel. If you want real value for money then this drivel is hard to beat and it’s appropriately remunerated.

 

Western Bulldogs by 41

 

Fremantle V St Kilda Sunday at Subiaco

 

What a good game this should be. Saints are on a bit of a roll even with Reiwoldt gone but Freo will want to make up for an unexpected loss against the Crows last week. This will be a lot tougher too and maybe the home ground can bring Freo a win. Maybe not. Has there ever been a draw at Subiaco? Freo need to stop Milne both kicking goals and giving cheek. Nobody can stop Sandilands so it will be interesting to see who wins most clearances as Montagna and Hayes are two of the best in that area. If Pav kicks 5 they will win the game.

 

Fremantle by 9

 

Melbourne V Collingwood Monday at the MCG

 

The Pies allowed the Demons to nearly win the last time they met just getting home by a point. There is no way that will happen on the long weekend game. Melbourne will not be given that chance this time.

 

Collingwood by 51

 

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[AFL-Review] Round 11

St Kilda 14.13.97 Defeated Richmond 8.11.59

At one stage early in the game it looked like the Tigers were going to cop a 100point hiding but they came good and kept the damage down to about 6 goals. As predicted. This week the Saints used Milne as their main avenue to goal and he kicked 5 goals 5 behinds from 21 disposals. Goddard had 38 disposals for St Kilda and Tuck had 28 for the Tigers. Average game.

 

Carlton 15.11.101 Defeated Melbourne 9.6.60

The Blues set up this win with a 7 goal 1^st quarter from which they never looked back. The Demons had a crack in the 3^rd but the lead was too much and in the end Carlton emerged as easy winners in slippery conditions at the MCG.  Houlihan and Waite kicked a few goals for the Blues but Waite will have to do just that before he knows the outcome of another report for rough play in his first game back from suspension. 50,000 at the MCG was a good turnout. Why?

 

Adelaide 16.9.105 Defeated Fremantle 12.10.82

The purple fairytale hit a speed bump when it met a Tyson Edwards retirement game from the Crows. Maybe Adelaide can find an old player to retire every week until the end of the season and it should just about get them into the finals. Pav continued kicking goals for Freo and Barlow and Sandilands were their best. Walker booted 4 for the Crows who always seemed to have Freo’s measure throughout the game.

 

North Melbourne 12.18.90 Defeated Brisbane 13.11.89

North must have thought they won the game in the first quarter which, by the way, they did. With a minute to go the Lions hit the front only to see the game go down the gurgler by one point with almost the last kick. It’s becoming impossible to pick North from one week to the next on form and after that effort the same can be said for Brisbane.  The Brown Fevola contributed another 8 goals this week and the deficit in this match was 44 points before The Lions started to reel North in. Best for North were Swallow and Harvey with a welcome return to form and Johnstone and Power were strong contributors for the Lions.

 

Geelong 18.14.122 Defeated West Coast 14.14.98

The Eagles looked like they might steal the game from the Cats but class won out in the end. Not a bad game of football either for a change considering it was West Coast playing. The Eagles actually took it right up to the Cats even early in the last quarter and maybe they will take a bit of heart from that performance. Kicking almost 100 points in a loss is a big improvement for them as well. And the Cats? Well just another win towards the premiership. Kennedy for the Eagles continued his goal kicking form ably assisted by McKinley and Byrnes kicked 4 for Geelong, Johnson 3 and Ablett was kept pretty quiet although he kicked a couple of important goals in the last quarter.

 

Sydney 12.17.89 Defeated Essendon 12.8 80

One of the most even games played in this round with the teams neck and neck all day. A swan’s neck is just a bit longer than any other bird and Sydney was able to hold on for a good win after a string of losses. Essendon was denied its 4^th win on the trot. Apparently the lead changed 15 times during the game which is a reflection on how close the game was all day and Essendon can consider themselves a little unlucky to lose the match with the injuries to Hille and Monfries during the game.

 

Hawthorn 10.14.74 Defeated Port Adelaide 8.15.63

The Hawks led all day until the 10 minute mark of the last quarter when the Power kicked a goal to put them a point ahead. It was short lived and the Hawks added another couple of goals to fight hard for another win which places them in the 8 would you believe? A return of 2 goals from 12 shots in the first half by Port did not help their cause but to their credit they persevered enough to come close in the last quarter. It was not a great game to watch. Did you know that was Hawthorn’s first win over the Power at the MCG since 2000 – that’s like 10 years?

 

Collingwood 17.11.113 Defeated Western Bulldogs 16.7.103

The Pies thought they had the game won at the end of the 3^rd quarter when they were 6 goals ahead. They did. But a strong albeit belated comeback from the Bullies almost stole the points. Whew! It’s a wonder Mick didn’t have a heart attack during that last quarter as the Bulldogs stormed home kicking 6 goals to 1. Didak and Davis kicked 3 each for the Pies along with high possession counts for Swan, Pendlebury and Ball. Barry Hall kicked another 4 for the Bulldogs aided by the unlikely goal kicker Will Minson with 3. Collingwood returns to 2^nd place on the ladder and at the moment the Western Bulldogs are 6 and 5, not where they thought or hoped they would be mid way through the season. They will still probably finish top 4 but it might be a struggle.

 

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[AFL-Preview] Round 11

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AFL Preview Rd 11

 

Hi Tipsters! Would you believe we are at the half way mark of the season? There has been 80 games played so far and some of us are struggling to have 50 tipping points to our credit. As predicted the teams that are placed between 5^th and 14^th on the ladder are showing some inconsistent form, sometimes good enough to beat the better teams and other times bad enough to lose inexplicably. But then that’s what a tipping comp is all about isn’t it? Over the past couple of weeks 3’s to 5’s have been good scores but the trick is to pick at least one upset but better two. That always gives you the edge and provides you with a statistical term called TC – Tipping Creep. Not “creep” as in low life and weird, but “creep” as in sneakily edging away from the rest by subterfuge....and inspired tipping.

From the AFL teams point of view we can see that as the season advances towards round 22 the competition for a place in the finals by that middle level of teams will be intense and most likely not decided until the final siren sounds on that last game of the round.

Still the press continues to find distracting articles to stick under our noses, such as Ablett moving to the Gold Coast for a small pay rise of $500,000 a year!! Get the Nikes on Gary and DO IT!  Half a million buys my loyalty. (Did you read that Dave?) In the west it has been refreshing to see only accolades and praise heaped on Fremantle while the Eagles cop a real flaying by journalists. The worm seems to have turned! Needless to say the preview is not necessarily the opinion of anybody who deems to know more than you dear tipster so after 3 disastrous tipping weeks make up your own minds. I can feel a change in my water. Take care!

 

Richmond V St Kilda Friday at Etihad

The mighty Tigers knocked off Port Power last week in their first win of the season but there is little hope of a repeat performance by them against The Saints. Not a lot more can be said about this game, only the margin to decide on.

Saints by 61

 

Carlton V Melbourne Saturday at the MCG

The Blues are having a bit of an up and down season and we are beginning to expect them to lose after a good win the week before. But they are playing Melbourne, great improvers this year, who are not good enough to win this game. I have noticed some experts reckon this is going to be close. They must be joking.

Carlton by 44

 

Adelaide V Fremantle Saturday at AAMI

Goodbye game for Tyson Edwards of the Crows but probably another milestone for Fremantle who have not won in Adelaide since 1772, or thereabouts. The game will be a lot closer than Freo will like but surely on form they can win. Pav is continuing his good form and the Dockers have far too many avenues to goal compared to the Crows who have to work out why they are falling away so badly in the last quarter.

Fremantle by 11

 

North Melbourne V Brisbane Saturday at Etihad

Can North reverse the 10 goal hiding of last week as we have seen them do a couple of times this year? After 5 consecutive losses and a surprise win last week against Collingwood can the Brisbane Lions string together two wins? Jonathan Brown is back in form so the avenue to goals for Brisbane should enable them to kick a winning score. North needs to recover from their trip west as well but they have a tall forward line against an injury depleted Brisbane back line. The Etihad stadium factor will help Brisbane more. This game will be close for a while unless North allows the Lions a 6 goal break in the first quarter as is their wont.

Brisbane by 29

 

West Coast V Geelong at Subiaco Sunday

The Cats copped a mauling from Freo last trip across the Nullabor but the Eagles would need a 20 goal improvement to stop Geelong from evening up their second western trek. Whoosha is under extreme pressure to hold his coaching job at West Coast if you are to believe the local papers while at Geelong Thommo is under extreme pressure to hang on to Gary Ablett. With 12 All Australians and 3 grand final appearances the stocks at Geelong remain high with or without Gazza. The real puzzle remains at West Coast with players like Hansen and Lynch really out of favour but the Eagles are still not kicking goals. Ashley has kicked something like 20 goals in 3 games in the WAFL. Mind you the delivery into the forward 50 by the Eagles leaves a lot to be desired. Goals by Mooney, Podsiadly and Johnson will be enough to beat West Coast.

Geelong by 36

 

Sydney V Essendon Sunday at the SCG

Expect this to be a tight game even though the Swans have lost their last 4 and the Bombers have won their last 3. Home ground advantage and the Essendon loss of Fletcher might see Sydney get back on the winning board – just.

Sydney by 12

 

Hawthorn V Port Adelaide Sunday at the MCG

This is one of the more difficult games from which to pick a winner with the Hawks winning their last t3 and the Power losing their last 3. Port lost to Melbourne and Richmond in consecutive weeks and now must face a pretty ordinary Hawthorn at the MCG. Players lost to both sides due to injuries and suspension is about the same. The loss of Buddy, again for a high bump, is a big one for Hawthorn to take. Toss a coin.

Hawthorn by 13

 

Collingwood V Western Bulldogs Sunday at Etihad

The Pies upset loss to the Brisbane Lions last week has resulted in a bit of pressure on them going into this game against the Western Bulldogs who also lost in an upset to the Bombers. Last time they met, just a few weeks ago, go figure, Collingwood had the measure of the Bullies. The Pies cannot afford 3 consecutive losses. Mick and Eddie looking grumpy for almost a month is too much to bear while I love seeing Rocket scratching what small amount of hair he has left explaining why the Bulldogs lost – again.

Collingwood by 9

 

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