[AFL-Preview] Round 12

AFL Preview Round 12
Last week 7 / 8 = 66 / 88 = 75%
 
G'day tipsters. Another dangerous tip with Essendon last week cost us the 8 from 8 but that was a game that was not decided until the 10 minute mark of the last quarter. While the experts and the detractors of the kicking style and goalfront accuracy of forwards were going to town in the past few weeks we witnessed the Bombers and the Crows put on an exhibition of amazing goal kicking to register 10 points and about 39 goals in 4 quarters of football! It was only late in the 3rd quarter that the Crows actually kicked a behind in their score of 21.4!
I don't know whether I have any readers in sunny Queensland but I am here at the Glenmore hotel in Rockhampton, deeeep in enemy territory, where workplace walls are plastered with State of Origin Rugby posters and the newspapers are full of what I consider useless information about teams called Seagulls and Rabbitohs and Tigers and Panthers and Sharks and Roosters and Cowboys and Storm et al. Uuggh!! Somebody actually tried to get me into a conversation about the game (and I use the term loosely) before I could steer the discussion to the AFL and include at least the Brisbane Lions, a team of common but relatively low interest. Readers, it has become obvious just why these places are so far behind us AFL aligned states. Hopefully the AFL can make some serious inroads into these backwaters of Australian sport and bring some light into their otherwise dull lives.
On a positive side I have noticed that hotels and pubs and clubs in QLD have these machines called pokies and while I am not a great supporter of gambling (outside tipping competitions of course) I must confess to pushing some spare currency through the slot to play a game or two while I waited for a meal. This largesse on my part cost me about $55 up to tonight when during a session while I waited for my grain fed rib eye steak there was a cacophony of sound and flashing lights and unintelligible music at the end of which the money indicator at the top left of my screen showed I had $300 credit. I immediately pushed the "collect" button hoping that this small amount would deprive the local rugby team of much needed funds resulting in them folding for the next season hence doing my bit to promote AFL. I am writing this preview sitting about 6 cms higher in the chair as my wallet is in my back pocket!!!
This week is the split round and rules often state that you must submit all your tips this week and as a result I must provide you with the preview for the two weeks. However, I reserve the right to change my educated guesses for the second week should there be a major change in team selections or coaches are sacked or another Ben Cousins saga hits the newsstands or a couple of teams decide to amalgamate or the Footy Show goes off the air.
For round 12 my nightmare is that Carlton beats St Kilda and Collingwood loses to the Swans. However, should Collingwood win and Carlton lose then, dear tipsters, The Pies will be sitting 4th on the ladder, a position they deserve.
The preview last week had me eating crow when the Bombers faded but that preview also had me regurgitating a fur ball when the Cats merely pawed at the Eagles after I had predicted a thrashing. West Coast played okay but one can only wonder just how hard the Cats were going!
Round 12 has some interesting matches so let's improve on the last two weeks and shoot for 8. Good luck.
 
Carlton V St Kilda at Telstra Dome Friday night
The Blues staggered over the line last week in a vital game against the Lions at the Gabba but are they good enough to topple the unbeatable Saints this week? Personally I think they will go close but at this stage of the tipping, until the Saints actually get beaten, it will be a brave tipster who can pencil in a Carlton win. I was about to provide the statistic that the Saints had not lost at Telstra this season but in fact they have not lost anywhere this season. I know and you know they will lose a game or two but I will be disappointed if it's Carlton that does it.
 
St Kilda by 22
 
Western Bulldogs V Port Adelaide in Darwin on Saturday night
The Port Adelaide versus Fremantle game last week was not a showpiece of AFL footy skills so I am thinking that the Power may not be able to charge up enough against a pretty impressive Bulldogs team, even in Darwin. The Bullies are the next best thing (to the top two teams that is) while the Power is almost the next worst thing. Territory heat and a neutral ground combined cannot make me place a tick against Port in this game. The Bulldogs kicked the sweep last week and might go close again this week.
 
Western Bulldogs by 33
 
Richmond V West Coast Eagles at Telstra Dome Saturday night
In the fixturing why has the AFL not scheduled a game for Saturday arvo just to maintain some tradition? Both Saturday's games are night games which plays havoc for tipsters and viewers who have Foxtel. Is a 6.40pm start in Darwin the same as a 7.10pm start in Melbourne? Anyway, if ever the footy gods smiled on a new coach it would have to be a grin of joy given to Rawlings of Richmond getting the gig against the Eagles as his first game to prove himself to the Tiger board. The Tigers have every chance to secure their 3rd win of the season and possibly jump ahead of the Eagles and Dockers on the ladder. What can I say? New coach, weak opposition, good odds, go Tigers! A point of interest in this game will be the debuts of two new ruckmen – Natanui for West Coast and Vickery for the Tigers.
 
Richmond by 11
 
Hawthorn V Brisbane Lions somewhere in Tassie Sunday
This is the game of the round as very little separates the two teams in their current standings and while Brisbane continues to astound, the Hawks continue to confound. It's only the fact that the game is in Tasmania that I am inclined to go for Hawthorn but it would not surprise me to see the Lions take the game and the 4 points from them. I'm just not too sure what psychological depression Brisbane might find themselves in after last week's last gasp loss to the Blues and they will have to lift themselves not only mentally but physically as they also have to overcome the Tasmanian weather in contrast to sunny QLD which I can vouch for sitting here at the computer in a hotel in Rockhampton in shorts and T shirt while my buddies (and their bodies) freeze to death in the deserts of Kalgoorlie which, by the way, is not as cold as Tassie will be on Sunday. While the game is no gimmee for the Hawks the home and away ground reasoning bends me towards tipping them.
 
Hawthorn by 18
 
Adelaide V North Melbourne at AAMI on Sunday
I'm not about to eat crow again this week and even though I have the utmost respect for North Melbourne they are not in the same league as Adelaide at the moment who will be shooting for 4 in a row. Outside of Geelong and St Kilda no other team has been able to achieve that. The Crows look okay against teams of comparable ability to North, you know, weaker, so it will be a brave tipster who will pick against them in this match.
 
Adelaide Crows by 41
 
Essendon V Melbourne Friday night at Telstra Dome 19^th June
If ever the Dees had a chance of winning a game this might be it but if they play any quarters of football like they did against the Pies last Monday then the Bombers will moider them. I'm thinking the Bombers will win anyway and with the extra week break they will have gotten over their feeble last quarter against the Crows. Young teams, lots of errors, won't be a classic game of Aussie Rules but it will be tight. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melbourne win the game but based on form and their relative levels of development Essendon is the favourite in this game. Another honourable loss to the Dees. I hope young Jack plays better in this game.
 
Essendon by 12
 
Sydney V Collingwood at ANZ Stadium Saturday night
The statistics say that Collingwood has won more of these games played at the old Olympic stadium than the Swans. Who cares about that? What we want to know is can they win this one? It's a shame Barry Hall gave away the 3  x 50 metre penalties last week against Hawthorn because I reckon the Pies will sorely need one at some time in this game. The Maggies are getting a few back from injury and with an extra week up their sleeve who knows, they might even have Medhurst return as well to the forward line. The Swans like to play it tough and tight and so do the Pies and if the weather is that little bit wet and slippery look out for a slugfest. My Foxtel will be connected by then so I should be able to watch the game live. Collingwood have a bit of a thing going at the moment with consecutive wins so here's hoping they can maintain the momentum. It will be a close game.
 
Collingwood by 11
 
Fremantle V Geelong at Subiaco Sunday arvo
A premiership one year followed by a loss in the grand final the following year and your reward is two trips in 2 games to Perth?! I predicted the Cats would kick the sweep last week against the Eagles but I was probably a round out with that call. Freo do not have a chance of winning this game regardless of how badly the Cats play. Say no more the tip is clear. I might just tone down a bit on the margin.
 
Geelong by 45

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