AFL PREVIEW 2008
FINAL ROUND - 22
Preview Tipping: 115 from 168 = 68.5%
Well tipsters, here we finally are, at the end of the season, a season dominated by one team, Geelong, with two other teams, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs adding their bit of superiority to the competition as well. The premiers for 2008 will come from one of those three teams just mentioned and a possible surprise might be the Saints who are showing their pre-season premiers form at the right time. Scoring in tipping competitions was higher than previous seasons due mainly to the three top teams winning consistently and of course the three bottom teams losing consistently. With one round of tipping to go and you’re more than 2 points behind you will be tipping for pride only. If there are a couple of you vying for top honours there remains a couple of possible chances this weekend to snatch the kudos and the cash but remember, the competition leaders will play cagey. In my comp the leader doesn’t even have to bother putting his tips in he’s that far ahead!
Trust you all enjoyed the previews. If you followed them you wouldn’t be too far off the pace but a couple of brain fades caused some ordinary results. The recovery from the week of 1 correct was impossible and maybe that’s cost me some money let alone credibility. Ah well!!
I did get to introduce another previewer, a chip off the old block so to speak and with a bit of fine tuning he could be okay in the future.
Hope your team did well and if you’re lucky enough they will continue playing for at least one more week in elimination finals. If time allows there might be previews for the finals and with a bit of negotiation we could look at weekly wraps for after the game next season.
Enjoy the footy!! Catch you all at next year’s AFL season 2009.
Fremantle V Collingwood at Subiaco Friday Night
Far be it for me to moan and whinge but what started out as a night out for me has turned into disaster as I was unable to get tickets to the game! Sold Out! The only Freo game of the season to be sold out! And you know why? Yep, there are that many Collingwood supporters in WA that we could fill the ground even when a western derby couldn’t. Ipso facto mate. Magpie supporters may not want the Pies to win this and have North Melbourne lose (highly unlikely) and have Collingwood playing Geelong in the first semi final. Then again seeing the only game Geelong lost all season was against Collingwood that might not be a bad scenario. And what do Freo supporters want? A quick end to another disastrous season I assume. If the Dockers have any more retirements they won’t be able to field a team next season methinks. Still, every team loves to beat Collingwood and that might be enough driving force for Freo to put up a good show. But I don’t think so. The Pies need to win just in case that 4th position becomes vacant and gives them the double chance and you need to enter the finals on a winning note. It won’t be easy.
Collingwood by 22
North Melbourne V Port Adelaide at the MCG Saturday arvo
Teams that have come up against Geelong and been beaten have found it hard to back up with a win the following week. I can’t put my finger on just why that is. Port actually won last week but the opposition was Melbourne so it’s really only half a win. I would like to find enough justification to call this as a possible upset but as deep as I look the more it looks like North will prevail. I can’t see North throwing away the second chance of fourth position on the likes of the Power.
North Melbourne by 44
Geelong V West Coast at Skilled Stadium Saturday Arvo
Did anyone see the odds offered for a West Coast win? $15!! I’d be offering $100. A cataclysmically poor season for the Eagles will be driven even further into their punch drunk minds in this last outing for the season when they come up against the team who beat them by 130 points in Perth. Eagles supporters here in Perth will find something to do on this Saturday other than watch the game live. Perhaps a picnic, some home maintenance, country drive, wash the dog, tidy the shed, clean the pool, anything but watch this slaughter. I know this mob well. They will watch that part of the first quarter when the Eagles are matching the Cats but 6 minutes in the writing will be on the wall and by the end of the quarter with a 5 goal deficit they will know the dream of an upset is over. Goodnight West Coast.
Geelong by 101
Adelaide V Western Bulldogs at AAMI Saturday
The Bulldogs won by 10 goals last week and the Crows lost by 10 goals last week. That should make it easy to pick the winner of this game. Or does it? Before last week the Crows had strung together 4 wins after losing 5 in a row while the Western Bulldogs have won just 2 of their last 6 and haven’t been all that convincing. I mean what do they have to play for? 2nd or 3 rd on the ladder makes little difference but as stated before teams need to be in the winning frame of mind as they enter the finals. On the other hand Adelaide won’t drop out of the 8 with a loss so where is the motivation coming from for both these teams. I have an inclination to tip the Crows in this game as their home form has been pretty good but to win games you need to kick goals and I’m finding it difficult to work out just who from the team will be kicking more goals than the Western Bulldogs forwards of many options. If you’re up there in your tipping comp this might be one game that could get you the point you need with an Adelaide tip. But maybe not.
Western Bulldogs by 18
Carlton V Hawthorn at Telstra Dome Saturday Night
As a promotional game this is a beauty for the AFL. No doubt Telstra dome will be sold out as we see the two gun full forwards of the competition go head to head as they strive for 100 goals in a season. As a Carlton coach my tactics would be pretty simple. Carlton back men and on-ball players do everything in your power to allow Buddy to kick 2 goals and get the hoohaa over with as quickly as possible. With the pressure off and any chance of a crowd invasion at a critical point later in the game averted play hard and tough and get the ball to Fev as quickly and as often as you can. Why will that be easy? Because the Hawthorn players are also relieved of pressure trying to get Buddy his ton and the aim of the game, for them, has been achieved. Winning or losing for Hawthorn is immaterial. So, I see Franklin posting his hundred early in the first quarter and then Carlton applying the pressure and working to get Fev his 100 also. However, 8 will be beyond him and the Carlton team and he will finish on 97 or 98 kicking 3 in the last quarter to get everyone at the ground excited but not scoring enough to win the game against the Hawks.
Hawthorn by 11
Sydney V Brisbane Lions at SCG Sunday
Brisbane was my pick last week and boy what a letdown. They allowed Carlton to run all over them in the last quarter so based on that I find it difficult to justify picking them against Sydney even though the Swans have been less than inspirational of late. When you look at history it seems the Lions haven’t won at the SCG since 2002 so either we will watch history being made or history being repeated. No doubt Sydney is like the rest of the teams in the finals hoping to move forward on the back of a win and you, the tipster needs to determine whether that’s enough motivation to overcome the Lions who are probably still feeling dirty about their loss to the Blues last week and a consequent end to their finals push. Again, for tipping it’s a distinct possibility that Brisbane can win so it’s not a ridiculous selection. Up to you but I think Sydney is still good enough to prevail.
Sydney by 11
Melbourne V Richmond at the MCG Sunday
Well tipsters, here’s a nothing game and a result on which nothing depends. If you want to be really daring you might want to pick the Demons to win and not win the wooden spoon. But boy, if Richmond lose this after their last few weeks then we better start talking about ‘tanking’ again. Do the Demons give Yze and White a guernsey for the game? And if the answer is yes what on earth will motivate them to do the 1%’ers after being told my Melbourne that their services are no longer required? Buggered if I know. You can be brave and pick the Demons if you like but I’m thinking the only tipsters that will put a tick against Melbourne are those poor souls sitting 20 points behind and who care no more for the competition. Sound familiar?
Richmond by 44
Essendon V St Kilda at Telstra Dome Sunday
I’m still trying to find a genuine upset game this weekend, anything, to help you tipsters that are on the cusp but alas, this game isn’t one of them. I just cannot see how the Saints would let this game slip after their stellar last third of the season they have put in. The Saints, along with Harvey, are hungry to finish this year with a bang and while this game won’t be a walkover it will be a win that can set them up for a hard finals campaign. I don’t know who the Bombers will put on Milne but one thing is for sure: give him a hard time and he will NOT be turning the other cheek, apparently both are broken.
St Kilda by 33
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