Fw: [AFL-Preview] Round 12

2008 FOOTY TIPPING
AFL PREVIEW – ROUND 12

Preview tipping: 68  from 88 = 77.2%
It was a case of back to normal last week but in all honesty it should have been 7 from 8 and not the 6 we scored.. For reasons unknown we selected Richmond to beat the Crows and when you look at the margin Adelaide won by in that game you can ask the question why would we have gone for Richmond? Well, Adelaide barely beat Essendon at home the week before and that was after being beaten by 50 points by the Eagles the week prior to that? We were not in tune with the South Australian teams last week as Port Power faded, as usual, against the Blues in the last quarter. I must admit I love listening to the South Australian commentators on the ABC writing off the Blues as we entered the last quarter and almost suffering apoplexy as Carlton kicked 7 goals to zip in the last quarter! It’s almost worth getting the tip wrong! Almost!
Tonight we have a problem with the write up. I have had too much red wine as a result of catching up with family at a restaurant that served an excellent Merlot. Whether it helps me to help you pick winners remains to be seen but we’ll give it our best shot!!
What has happened in the week of football worth writing about? Adam Goodes got off again on what was certainly a head high charge but let’s face it folks, what is the guy’s surname? Doh?! Conversely we saw Black from Fremantle get 2 weeks and I ask you again – look at the surname. Doh?
Half way through the season and finally we have a round in which it is looking rather difficult to pick winners and we need a few of these through the remainder of the season to differentiate between the men and the boys (and ladies) in the tipping comp!!
My youngest son also enjoyed a few wines with me and he has agreed to provide the write ups and tips for half the games tonight. There is nothing like family assistance in times of need. Let’s go and good luck!!

Essendon  V West Coast at Telstra Dome Friday Night
Into my 4th glass of Penguins Leg (or was it Seal’s Kiss? Who knows?) and I am still unsure about who will win this game. It looks like the Eagles might be starting to redevelop that win at home streak, or at least make it hard for teams playing at Subiaco but this is not a home game for them. Then again the opposition is Essendon and even under the influence of drugs you would find it hard to pick them to win a game after their 7 straight losses. West Coast have not won away from home and there is little confidence to pick them against the Bombers as bad as Essendon is. Expect the game to be close and nasty but not telecast live in Perth. Channel 7 lost 100,000 viewers who normally watch Better Homes and Gardens  after they scheduled football to start earlier, but still not live, for WA residents and apparently the station is not prepared to upset  and lose that many viewers again this season! Wonder what will happen when the Olympics are being telecast? Go figure, in this day and age we still can’t get live telecasts of sporting events! Back to the prediction  - a close game with no team ever getting the better of the other in any particular quarter so the result will not be clear until there is only 5 minutes to go!

Essendon by 5

Western Bulldogs V Brisbane Lions at MCG Saturday arvo
Certainly this match is looming as game of the round and if nothing else will give us a better indication of just how good the Brisbane Lions are. Matthews has them looking like finalists because they are better than the bottom few teams but the Bulldogs are certain finalists and looking like contenders for the flag half way through the season, the game is in Melbourne and the tip has to favour the Bullies in what should be an entertaining game.

Western Bulldogs by 18

Fremantle V North Melbourne at Subiaco Saturday Arvo
I sense another disappointing day for the purple haze at Subiaco. I know the Freo boys want to give their coach Harvey a birthday present but it ain’t gonna happen. Like all Docker’s coaches before him this one is also losing his sense of humour. Laidley will be all smiles though as his team, who played very well against the Cats last week in an excellent game of footy, move to 6 – 5 – 1 half way through the season. Go North!

North Melbourne by 27

Sydney V St Kilda at SCG Saturday night
How does St Kilda turn around a season that started with such promise? Well, it won’t be by beating the Swans at home.

Sydney by 26

Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Saturday night
My son has thrown his efforts in writing up footy games into the ring and because his old man had a late night and an extra bottle of red it’s welcome respite. These next four games are his contribution.
On the surface this looks to be the toughest game of the round in which to pick a winner.  Looking deeper, checking the statistics, reading the form guide, analysing the match ups and talking to the tarot reader down the street confirms that indeed this is the toughest round to pick.  Either because of the Hawks loss to the Doggies a couple of weeks ago or because Hawthorn’s president Kennett’s remarks about just where Melbourne should stick themselves geographically the Hawks have been quiet.  Also after last week it appears that Buddy is on a new training regime.  During the week he is allowed to have as many beers and as many women as he can kick goals so it’s fair to say he’s doing alright now.  Is there a case for the Crows?  A 50 point flogging of Richmond does little to disguise some poor form of late but a meeting on their home patch might just sway things their way. But the Hawks aren’t Richmond and this top of the ladder clash should sort the men from the boys and for Hawthorn to show that they are true contenders this is one of the games they have to win

Hawthorn by 17

Geelong V Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium Sunday
A very conspicuous absence in Carlton’s come from behind win against Port last week was any player making any choking signals whatsoever.  Never before was it more warranted and the closest we got was Brett Ratten calling Choco a sore loser.  Will this give Port enough impetus to get up over the almost unbeatable Cats?  How will they stop Garry Ablett junior who it is rumoured has such core strength he prefers to run into tackles rather than avoid them?  But still, Port did beat the Cats down at the cattery in the same game last year so maybe this isn’t as easy as it seems.  Could I be reading too much into this?  Probably

Geelong by 33

Collingwood V Carlton at MCG Sunday
I spent most of my life growing up in Western Australia as a Collingwood supporter and went to my first Collingwood versus Carlton game last year.  I’d been to derby’s and been to blockbusters but none of them quite had that feeling of hatred that pulsed through the ground like I felt that day.  It’s this kind of statement that makes you realise just how unpredictable this game can be.  Let’s face it, Malthouse complained about how teams get motivated by some games and not others and this is a prime example.  The Pies were ordinary last week.  So ordinary that I abandoned the game and decided to make Leek and Potato Soup while the second half played itself out.  Carlton on the other hand played 30 minutes of unrivalled football to steal a win.  But as already illustrated form means nothing leading into this game.  My money is on a less than 39.5 point win, the heart says the Pies, the tea leaves says the Pies but putting money on them is a fast track to disappointment. What the heck!

Collingwood by 28

Richmond V Melbourne  at Telstra Dome Sunday
Only an Irishman can take over as president of a club like Melbourne! And he did! Welcome Jim Stynes to your nightmare. Well, at least a shared one with Wallace.
This is one of those games that will have absolutely no effect on the season and the only people it really means anything to will be Richmond supporters and maybe Melbourne supporters although it’s hard to get something to mean anything to them apart from a Queens Birthday blockbuster against Collingwood!  But in reality this is just the sort of game that can make a difference in tipping comps between claiming the bronze and silver.  A loss for Richmond could spell a sacking for Terry Wallace whereas a loss for Melbourne just gives Jim Stynes a solid base to build on.  In the end, take a risk...who cares?

Richmond by 44


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