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[AFL-Review] Round 12

2011-06-13T02:52:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 12

Well tipsters it is a rare event but worthy of mention to let you all know that the preview selected the 8 winners this long weekend. There were doubts with some of the selections and at three quarter time it looked like I had swung the wrong way with the Geelong versus Hawthorn game but as predicted, the Cats just seem to be able to squeeze wins out of tight games.

A glorious day in north east China today, about 27 degrees, light cloud and little wind, heaps of pollution and crazy traffic. Normal. The foreigner Olympics ended today so there is a week for the body to recover. Hallelujah. Medal presentations at a Korean restaurant and seeing I won gold in the basketball, bronze in the soccer and silver in the tennis and cricket I just have to be there so the review is just a short version but I am sure you will excuse me.

We are into the second half of the season and the previews are going along okay.

St Kilda 12.9.81 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

A game played between a couple of out of form teams and neither team would take a lot of confidence out of the match. That result just about finishes off the Bullies for a finals appearance and the Saints might beat enough middle of the road teams to make an elimination final.

West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Adelaide 10.7.67

The scoring in this game was all at one end, possibly due to a strong breeze favouring that end goal. 19 of the 25 goals were kicked at the scoring end. The Eagles progression continues very nicely towards a final appearance after the wooden spoon last season and Adelaide will have an early finish to the season.

North Melbourne 18.14.122 defeated Gold Coast Suns 9.9.63

North was ahead by 7 goals at the end of the first quarter and about the same at half time. That's almost an impossible margin to overcome for most teams let alone a team as new to the game as the Gold Coast Suns although having said that they did it once already to Port Adelaide. Harvey celebrated a milestone game and the Roos were never headed and finished 10 goal winners. Expected.

Geelong 13.10.88 defeated Hawthorn 13.5.83

It was amazing to see the Hawks hold the Cats to just 4 points in the 3^rd quarter after both teams had kicked so many goals in the first half. But that feat was overshadowed in the final quarter when the Cats held Hawthorn scoreless in the last! How is that possible in a game of football with two skilled teams? 19 goals kicked in the first half and just 7 goals in the second half. Great game. Well tipped.

Carlton 19.10.114 defeated Brisbane 9.9.63

The Blues were never headed by the Lions and by three quarter time they had worked up minimum sweat to have a 10 goal lead, the margin being the same at the end of the game. Walker kicked 5 to add to his 6 from the previous week. Welcome back to Kreuzer as well.

Sydney 9.21. 75 defeated Richmond 9.11.65

The Swans continue to win the tight games, a bit like Geelong. They came from behind in the last quarter and got themselves about 4 goals in front before the rain pelted down drowning any hope of a Richmond revival which was gaining momentum in the last few minutes.

Fremantle 15.8.98 defeated Essendon 9.10.64

The Dockers had this game won by the end of the first quarter and at one stage in the third quarter they were a point shy of a 10 goal lead. Fremantle was able to coast in the last quarter allowing the Bombers a few complimentary goals and some respectability. The early rampaging Essendon form is beginning to wilt a little so it will be interesting to see how they finish the second half of the season. Fremantle consolidated in the nick of time.

Collingwood 19.15.129 defeated Melbourne 6.5.41

The Magpie machine was at its awesome best as they steamrolled Melbourne who managed a total game score that was 2 goals less than Collingwood kicked in the final quarter! Cloke had 5 up to half time and if the Pies missed Dane Swan and Dale Thomas it wasn't noticeable.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 12

2011-06-09T07:46:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 12

I barely survived the Dragon Boat Racing Festival day for two reasons. Firstly the early morning ride, a distance of about 12kms, 24 kms return, finished at some enormous lake but the mosquitoes were in such numbers it was impossible to do a lot. Then again there was really nothing to do there either after we had eaten our traditional zongzi (sticky rice with a sweet fruit inside all wrapped in a leaf and tied with stringy plant), hard boiled eggs, fish and rice porridge. The whole Daqing area is afloat on oil but also is part of huge expanses of wetlands, lakes, man made rivers and plenty of casual water, all perfect breeding grounds for the beloved mosquito. I have never in my life experienced anything like it. No Aeroguard either although I reckon this breed would have eaten the stuff. Secondly the Olympics. I was entered into the 100 metre dash as part of a team and finished a creditable 6^th (in a field of 6) but got a hammy twinge as a result. Then horror of all horrors I was in the football team. Soccer! Yep I had to play soccer. From that game I suffered a calf strain and did a real dramatic swan dive to gain some sort of sympathy from the ref but to no avail. I eventually had to play 4 games in a round robin style tournament and actually kicked 3 goals with the team finishing in bronze medal position. While writing this preview the body is still wracked in agonising pain, every muscle hurting, even when I type on the laptop!! While there is no early morning bike ride next week the Olympics continues with basketball, tennis, volleyball and certain death!

Last week 6 / 8. Should have been 7. Never mind. 62/85 = 72.9%

St Kilda V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Friday Night

Tipsters will have to figure out just which of these two teams has gone further backwards from last year. Once you have that worked out the selection should be easy. The Saints and the Bulldogs have both been woeful in some games so it's a matter of least woeful wins. Or a draw? Some of the stars of the game like Reiwoldt for the Saints and Lake for the Bulldogs are having very average seasons as well. Is the problem just form slump with these two teams or has it been something deeper. Sure has the fans confused I'm sure. Which team can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

St Kilda by 12

Adelaide V West Coast Eagles at AAMI Saturday

The only thing that will stop the Eagles winning this game will be one of those amazing form turn arounds by Adelaide and it's a possibility that such an event is scheduled shortly. Eventually tipping form will pay dividends so you have to stick with it. Adelaide defeated the Eagles at Subiaco in round 15 last year so maybe it's time the Eagles reversed the result. Cox is having a great year so West Coast should win the stoppages and Cox is being ably supported by LeCras and Priddis. If the Eagles can stop Tippett up forward they should win.

West Coast by 22

Gold Coast V North Melbourne Saturday Night

The Suns acquitted themselves well against the Eagles last week but then so did North against the Crows. It will be interesting to see if Gold Coast can give the Roos a run for their money as they seem to be able to really push the middle of the road teams. It's still too hard to actually go out on a limb and tip them. Harvey breaks the North Melbourne playing record held by Archer with his 312^th game. Is it enough to drive North to another win? The Swallow brothers face each other as well. Don't discount the Gold Coast for that extra possible point.

North Melbourne by 18

Geelong V Hawthorn at the MCG Saturday night

This is certainly a game of blockbuster proportions and the Cats have been able to beat the Hawks every time since being beaten in that grand final. For the Hawks to win Buddy has to play to give them that edge. The Cats are due for a loss, might as well make it this week and get it out of the way. Actually on a rethink Geelong always seems to have that experience required to win the tight games. They have shown that a number of times already this season. The Hawks can ill afford slow starts or for them to go to sleep in a quarter. Geelong can be ruthless if allowed to.

Geelong by 16

Carlton V Brisbane Lions at Etihad Sunday

The Blues are going very nicely thank you and the possible return of Kruezer would be a bonus not only for this game but for their preliminary final chances as well. Brisbane played a shocker of a first half last week so they will come out firing early. Carlton should be able to absorb the shock and go on to win. The Lions have lost Merrett for almost the rest of the season. I cannot see Carlton conceding a pencilled in win at this stage of the competition. They got a fright from lowly Port Adelaide last week before flexing their footy muscle and they won't want to do that again.

Carlton by 33

Sydney V Richmond at the SCG Sunday

The Tigers are coming off a bye and that stat is starting to gather realistic momentum. On top of that we see the Swans just keep on winning these games against the middle of the road teams. The game is at home for them and that's another reason to tip them against the Tigers although the Swans are playing better away from home at the moment. Richmond is a couple of points out of the top 8 and if ever they needed an incentive to win then that would be it. It might be enough but their form is a bit inconsistent.

Sydney by 19

Fremantle V Essendon at Subiaco Sunday

Both teams lost their last game with Freo being completely over run in the last quarter against the Hawks and Essendon getting a nice touch up by Melbourne. Based on form both teams should lose but maybe the fact that the game is at Subiaco might be enough to swing the result Fremantle's way. Not convinced. Hird might like his team to help him celebrate his inclusion in the AFL Hall of Fame but I doubt personal accolades like that are team drivers. The Bomber will want to avenge an unexpected loss to the Tigers as well as the one to Melbourne. Is the Essendon form dropping off? The Fremantle form certainly has dropped off and the gap Sandilands leaves is a big one – over 2 metres actually.

Fremantle by 9

Melbourne V Collingwood at the MCG Monday

The Queen's birthday game between these old rivals will bring a nice crowd again. It helps even things out a bit in that Melbourne seems to have found it's mojo again and the Pies are having a few injury problems as well as losing Thomas for a week due to suspension. In addition Beams is out injured and Swan has been sent to high altitude recovery in Arizona, all exclusions that will test the depth of the Pies. Even last season the Demons served it up to Collingwood twice and there is no doubt that this game will be close as well. Hard to pick against the Pies based on consistency.

Collingwood by 34

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[AFL-Review] Round 11

2011-06-05T07:34:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 11

Dragon Boat Racing Day in China on Monday(Duanwu Jie). It means that you have to rise very early and make your way to special fields or areas where a certain plant grows. You pour water over the plant and pick some to take home. The plant wards off evil spirits and guarantees you good health. You keep the plant at home and the fragrance works to keep you healthy. You are encouraged to walk as much as possible which also assists your well being. The ying and yang of China. Fascinating. Means an early night tonight and a 3am rise tomorrow. Sun is up about 4.15am anyway and we pedal for about an hour to reach the destination. Should be knackered by about 8am just in time to join in on the FO (Foreigner Olympics) we hold here every year. They don't play footy as part of the games. If I introduce it next year I will win gold!!

Oh yeah. 6 from 8 in the tipping.

Melbourne 15.11.101 defeated Essendon 10.8.68

It's results like this that defy reason and logic and give AFL footy tipping a bad name. I guess we will have to put some credence in this playing poorly after a bye statistic that has been circulating in footy columns. Some people might refer to this as an upset but to me it's an insult to form.

Geelong 23.10.148 defeated the Western Bulldogs 13.9.87

The game was well and truly over by half time when Geelong held a 50 point lead. Somehow the Bulldogs, who had kicked only 6 goals to three quarter time, booted 7 goals in the last quarter. Providing the goal umpires at both ends with a bit of work the Cats kicked 6 themselves in a last quarter avalanche of 13 goals.

West Coast Eagles 13.7.85 defeated the Gold Coast Suns 10.7.67

Half way through the opening quarter the scoreboard was looking ugly for the Suns as the Eagles piled on 6 quick goals. But Gold Coast, celebrating Ablett's 200^th game, relentlessly kept at West Coast and in a tight last quarter the Eagles held the Suns at bay by only 3 goals.

Collingwood 16.12.108 defeated St Kilda 7.9.51

As previewed the game was a repeat of the 2^nd Grand Final from last year and while the game was pretty tight in the first half once the Pies stepped up that extra gear they were far too good for the Saints.

Sydney Swans 17.14.116 defeated Brisbane 7.9.51

The game had an almost identical score line to the Collingwood versus St Kilda game except the Swans did all their scoring in the first half and led by 12 goals at that stage extinguishing any hope that Brisbane might make a close game of it.

Hawthorn 17.9.111 defeated Fremantle 13.11.89

Rioli kept the Hawks in the game in the first half as he substituted for the missing Buddy. At the start of the last quarter the Dockers had a 4 goal break kicking the first of that quarter. From that point it was all Hawthorn as they finally found their A game and kicked 8 unanswered goals to win by a comfortable margin albeit a little flattering.

North Melbourne 18.7.115 defeated Adelaide 10.8.68

The Roos maintained a healthy 4 goal margin in the first half then kicked away again in the second half doubling that margin. North led all day and any thoughts about this game being close were snuffed out in the first quarter. North looked better, played better, finished better. No finals for Adelaide this year.

Carlton 16.15.111 defeated Port Adelaide 7.7.49

How is that Port can start games like this consistently? Then they fall in a hole. At half time they were ahead. In a game of football the ball moves quickly from end to end but we still have a situation where a team actually doesn't score in a whole quarter of footy? Carlton completely dominated this game after half time kicking 11 goals to the Power's 2 and keeping the Port scoreless in the final quarter.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 11

2011-06-02T07:19:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 11

Last week 5/8 but a correction to the previous week in which I gave myself 5 when I actually did score 6 gives me 56/77 = 72.7%!!

This little place in which I am working in north east China does not have a problem about spending money on sports stadiums, unlike, say, Perth, who have been debating the expenditure of a mere billion dollars to upgrade facilities to cater for the two Aussie rules teams there, West Coast Eagles and Fremantle Dockers. By the way, as I am teaching English maybe I should be using the plural of stadium as stadia…then again…… Anyway, the city of XinCun is building another stadium similar to the bird's cage concept built for the Beijing Olympics. That in itself may not be news to you but in an area that has a population of just over 2 million there already exists 2 multimillion dollar stadiums, one in Yixi, just a few kilometres from XinCun and another in Ranghulu a similar distance in the other direction. Again, that may not be news to you but if I told you that NEITHER of the venues is ever used you would have to start scratching your collective heads right? There was a rumour that Daqing would field a footy team (and I use the term 'footy' here loosely) so based on the rumour the government in the area, which is awash with oil by the way, built a grand stadium that seats about 50,000 I think. The one in Yixi is an open arena but the one being built now in XinCun will be enclosed in glass or something like Etihad but without the option of opening the roof. That's a better idea than an open stadium considering the winter temperature here ranges from -39 to -25 resulting in the play area of the Yixi stadium being a sheet of solid ice for at least 4 months of the year and impossibly cold for another 3 months. We foreigners here just wonder about why there are so many grand places to play sport but nobody playing them. Totally empty, vacant, unused stadiums!! Western Australia just needs to discover oil under the ground in Perth and allow oil pumps to be installed everywhere and anywhere to help finance a whole range of public sporting venues for the population including a purpose built AFL stadium! Start drilling now people!

The AFL season is almost half over and as expected the middle range of teams are still madly jostling for position with unpredictable form changes. Geelong, Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn will play finals. You can raffle the rest.

Essendon V Melbourne at the MCG Friday night

The Bombers are coming off the bye and the Demons are coming off another hiding. Form has been fairly consistent with Essendon. Can't say the same for Melbourne. Demon's coach Bailey is under the pump no doubt and he has made wholesale changes with some welcome returns to the side from injury and suspension. The Bombers also get back Watson. The surprising great form of Essendon is as surprising as the lack of continuation of last year's form by Melbourne.

Essendon by 29

Geelong V Western Bulldogs at Skilled Stadium Saturday

Not only are the Bulldogs playing poorly they get to meet Geelong at the Cats' home ground. There are far more problems at the Western Bulldogs than at Geelong where things are purring along nicely with no losses in the first 10 rounds. Make that no losses in the first 11. The Bullies have not won at this venue since Noah was a boy and it would take just that, a form change of biblical proportions for them to make history.

Geelong by 33

West Coast Eagles V Gold Coast Suns Saturday

After the reality check to the Eagles delivered by Collingwood last week it will be the turn of the Suns to see how hard that road trip west really is. The form of West Coast should be good enough to keep the Gold Coast on the bottom. The Suns have amazed us all with two wins already but their inconsistency has meant a win or a thrashing. Could be the latter this week.

West Coast by 52

Collingwood V St Kilda at the MCG Saturday

Supporters of both Collingwood and St Kilda should not expect a repeat of the first grand final played last year between these two teams. However, it is reasonable to assume that the result might be a bit closer to the score of the second grand final they played. The Saints showed some reasonable form over the past two weeks but this is a whole different ball game. I am not so sure that bitter Grand Final memories for St Kilda will be a strong enough motivating factor to beat the Pies. Collingwood can have Dane Swan playing below his best and have Thomas step up. They can lose Ben Johnson to injury and find a surprisingly ready replacement with Leon Davis. Depth of the list and a small injury list can do wonders for team confidence.

Collingwood by 28

Brisbane Lions V Sydney at the Gabba Saturday night

The Swans scraped home by the barest margin last week against the Roos and the Lions gave the Crows a good old fashioned beating at AAMI, not an easy task for some other teams this season so far. Can the Lions string together 3 consecutive wins and arrest a horror start they have had this year? Sydney seems to like close games and this one will be no exception. Get somebodyin the Brisbane team to stop the effectiveness of Goodes and I guarantee victory.

Brisbane by 6

Hawthorn V Fremantle at the MCG Sunday

Lots of injuries and meeting one of the better teams in the competition means Fremantle is in danger of another loss. Add to those reasons another is that the game is at the MCG and I doubt there will be a lot of money on the Dockers to win this one. My money is going on the Hawks. Hodge back to great form and it will be a challenge for MacPharlin to hold Buddy to less than 4. I don't think that even putting Sandilands back into the team would help Freo.

Hawthorn by 41

North Melbourne V Adelaide at Etihad Sunday

Neither team to make the finals, neither team winning many games, both teams filled with youth and inexperience, neither team filled with a lot of confidence. It all makes for a recipe for a close game and with the season looking like a record for draws this match might test the statistics again. It's not good tipping to predict a draw so I go for North in a close one but a result of little interest to anybody other than supporters.

North Melbourne 3

Port Adelaide V Carlton at AAMI Sunday

As good as the Power was last week winning unexpectedly against the vastly improved Tigers there is no doubt they will find this a much tougher proposition. As a matter of fact, make that impossible. Carlton is surely top four material and they have beaten the Power at AAMI before. Who does Port have to contain Judd and Murphy? Carlton has a bad habit of allowing these games to be too close at times but even if they opt for a slow start they should win comfortably.

Carlton by 42

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[AFL-Review] Round 10

2011-05-29T03:36:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 10

Carlton 13.15.93 defeated Melbourne 6.10 .46

Well it might have been a scrappy game but the Blues did a workmanlike job on the Demons and in anybody's language the score line indicates a hiding. Judd seems to be heading for another Brownlow and it's obvious that what he does gets noticed by the umpires. Where to for Melbourne from here? They seemed to be heading in the right direction last year but it looks like they have fallen off this season which may be due to injuries. Pre-season the rumour was that Carlton might challenge for a premiership within 5 years but at this stage they lack some class players through the spine. They are certainly top 4 material. Dean Bailey might be in his last year for Melbourne and I feel that Jimmy Stynes will never live to see them play finals. The Demons face Essendon coming off a bye and a loss to Richmond and Carlton will kill Port Adelaide next week.

Sydney 10.12.72 defeated North Melbourne 9.17.71

It was a close game and just the point separating the teams at the final siren. North had the ball in their forward line for the last 3 minutes and attempted to score even a point but the Swans held firm and a Grundy mark in the last 10 seconds was enough. Scott Thompson had the crowd and the commentators in raptures as he kicked 2 vital goals for the Kangaroos in the game and he was playing at full back. Not often that a full forward from a team can show the statistic of his fullback kicking 2 goals. Seems the Swans know how to win these tight games and I am sure that the Roos will not be happy with a 9.17 scoreline that shows 4 more shots on goal than Sydney. North plays Adelaide next week and Sydney meets Brisbane at the Gabba.

St Kilda 15.12.102 defeated Fremantle 7.14.46

The game was virtually over at half time when the Saints had a 45 point lead. That was almost the same margin as at the end of the game. St Kilda lost Goddard early with what looked like a serious injury and then lost Dempster who was knocked unconscious late in the game. Two wins in a row for the Saints helps their finals cause a lot better than this Fremantle loss does for their final hopes. Early in the 3^rd quarter the Saints were 10 goals ahead due to Schneider booting 3 goals and Montagna putting in a great game winning mostly contested possessions. Ex Freo player Peake kicked 3 goals for the Saints and Schneider finished with 4. It was a dirty day for Fremantle. St Kilda will know whether they are back in the game when they play Collingwood next week and unfortunately Fremantle face a very good Hawthorn.

Geelong 21.13.139 defeated Gold Coast 10.13.73

At half time the Suns were ahead so it was a rather slow start for the Cats. But after half time Geelong kicked 13 goals to 1 by the Gold Coast which pretty well covers the final margin. The tip was a 99 point margin so just turn it upside down and you have it. Steve Johnson kicked 7 for the Cats, 4 of them in a dominant 3^rd quarter and Podsiadly contributed 4. Ablett was unstoppable against his old club in the 1^st quarter but obviously as the Suns were overrun so did the influence of Ablett lessen. Bartel and Selwood were again prominent for the Cats and ex rugby convert Karmichael Hunt even kicked a goal for Gold Coast. The Cats play the Western Bulldogs next week and Gold Coast fly to the other coast to play West Coast. Coast to coast footy right?

Port Adelaide 13.11.89 defeated Richmond 10.14.74

Well I hope somebody swabbed the Tigers after last week's win against Essendon or at least both Richmond and Port Adelaide get swabbed after this game. Results like this make tipping almost impossible. Enough said! The conditions as usual in Darwin were humid making the ball slippery but both teams had to contend with that and Port seemed to do it better. Gray booted 4 for the Power and Schultz 3 while for Richmond Tiger forward Reiwoldt, held for most of the game, kicked 3, two of them late in the game when the result was beyond doubt. The Tigers have a bye next week.

Brisbane 15.11.101 defeated Adelaide 8.13.61

Two wins in a row for the Lions so you would have to say that the return of Brown has had a major influence on Brisbane. I doubt Adelaide would have thought they could lose this game but lose it they did and were really hammered in the second half. Brisbane is off the bottom of the ladder. McGrath was the main instigator for the Lions with 4 goals for the game but kicked 3 in the second quarter to help the Lions to a half time lead. The Crows succumbed meekly to Brisbane as they did against Collingwood the week before. Watch out next week when they play North because they will probably turn the form around again! Frustrating.

Collingwood 16.9.105 defeated West Coast 7.10.52

A competitive first quarter even though the Pies led but from that point Collingwood proved to be far too good. The only interest in the final quarter was whether the Eagles could kick one more goal to equal or win the quarter as the Pies have lost only one last quarter in the season so far. They didn't! West Coast now knows just where they are in respect to their improvement. Thomas was brilliant for the Pies taking a screamer and kicking a possible goal of the year from the boundary. I can't say Collingwood was pretty good because Mick does not like the word 'pretty'. It was a big loss for West Coast who would have had game confidence after their spanking of the Western Bulldogs last week. They have the chance next week of resurrecting the loss when they play Gold Coast at Subiaco. If the Magpies can stay injury free they will certainly be there at the end.

Hawthorn 13.13.91 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.8.62

The Western Bulldogs never looked like winning this game. Hawthorn looks very good and they currently hold 3^rd position on the ladder. The Bulldogs are really gone this season and need some spark to get them into the finals. Can the Hawks repeat their 2008 success? The fragility they showed in earlier rounds seems to be gone. Still many games to go. Hodge is coming back into frightening form even kicking 2 goals while playing across the back line. Giansiracusa played his 200^th and was one of the best for the Bulldogs who never gave up but were just outclassed.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 10

2011-05-26T06:57:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 10

Last week 5 /8 = 50/69 (72.5%)

By Saturday night when I had tipped 4 from 5 I thought 6 or 7 was a sure thing. Both WA teams were tipped incorrectly which didn't help and an underestimation of Hawthorn sealed the score at 5. But it has been difficult to gauge the form of some of the teams. Geelong and Collingwood look like good prospects to pick to win each week. Port Adelaide can be picked to lose every week. Essendon, Carlton, West Coast, Hawthorn and perhaps Fremantle are showing some consistency and the rest? Figure it out. When these middle of the road teams play each other the result really can go either way. This round there are a couple of games like that so it gets down to the flip of a coin or picking by gut feeling. After last week I might leave the gut feeling picks out of the equation. Good luck.

Melbourne V Carlton at the MCG Friday night

The Blues have really been consistent losing only to the top 2 teams. Can't say the same for the Demons and on that basis it's difficult to tip them with confidence in this game.

Carlton by 33

North Melbourne V Sydney at Etihad Saturday

Well there is not a lot in this game with both teams being somewhere about the middle in performance. If North can play well at this ground they will push Sydney to the edge. While I think another draw might be a reasonable tip I'll put my hand up for North to come back from a disappointing loss to the Lions.

North Melbourne by 12

Fremantle V St Kilda at Subiaco Saturday

I can't get my head around tipping Freo against supposedly better teams allowing for the stupidity of last week's selection against Port of course. St Kilda look fragile this season but it was a good win last week. No Sandilands for Freo to add to their injury woes. Can they win without him? There are not many options for Fremantle who can stand in for the big guy. I haven't got a Fremantle tip right yet so why start now.

St Kilda by 15

Gold Coast Suns V Geelong at Metricon Saturday night

This will be a nice introduction to the use of the new Suns ground on the Gold Coast. Let's see if the new, electronic scoreboard has been tested to register 200 points for a side.

Geelong by 99

Richmond V Port Adelaide in Darwin Saturday night

The Power can thank their lucky stars that the game is not being played in Melbourne where they would be lucky to get away with an 80 point margin. In Darwin the heat might slow the Tigers down a little at the end so we will compensate the point difference to allow.

Richmond by 50

Adelaide V Brisbane Lions at AAMI Sunday

This is one of the more difficult games to tip seeing the Lions won last week to celebrate the return of their captain Brown. The Crows put up a great effort against the Pies last week as well but got killed in the last quarter. They should rally at home to beat Brisbane.

Adelaide by 20

Collingwood V West Coast at the MCG Sunday

Collingwood kicked 11 goals in the last quarter in their match against Adelaide last week and the Eagles booted 10 goals in the last quarter against the Bulldogs. With that sort of form you would have to give West Coast a chance wouldn't you? No.

Colingwood by 38

Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn at Etihad Sunday

Picking teams on form this season has been disastrous for tipsters but you have to be crazy to pick the Bulldogs to win this.

Hawthorn by 29

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[AFL-Review] Round 9

2011-05-22T04:56:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 9

Geelong 15.12.102 defeated Carlton 14.16.100

As predicted there was really nothing in this game and had Warnock kicked truly the result would have gone Carlton's way. Geelong survived another close one. That's two in a row. When players have the outcome of a game in their hands with almost the last kick it's hard to blame them for the loss of the game. The Blues had almost double the inside 50's to Geelong in the final quarter and could not post a winning score. That's footy. Selwood continues his stellar step up for the Cats after the loss of Ablett and the usual good players for Carlton like Murphy, Simpson and Gibbs were prominent.

St Kilda 16.10.106 defeated Melbourne 13.8.86

The Saints finally got themselves a win and maybe this is the start of a more positive half of the season for them. However, the game was tight as expected and it wasn't until late in the match that Melbourne really lost. Lee Montagna was welcomed back into the Saints fold with an almost best on ground performance and Reiwoldt and Milne kicked 3 each for St Kilda. It's a bit difficult for tipsters to find logic in results that see Adelaide defeat the Saints, Melbourne thrash Adelaide and then St Kilda beats Melbourne. Too hard.

Fremantle 21.16.142 defeated Port Adelaide 14.6.90

Well if you're going to get a tip wrong you might as well be 12 goals out and do it in style. So much for going by gut feelings. Another dismal underestimation of Fremantle. Port sucks. Gray and Schultz kicked 3 goals each for Port and Kepler Bradley continues to be a very useful utility for the Dockers kicking 3 goals as well as his efforts around the ground. Port coach Primus was critical of his players saying they just weren't up to AFL standard – harsh. Support for the Power must also be a worry because only about 17,000 turned up to watch the game and even at their worst Fremantle was able to draw a reasonable crowd. There will be some pain before gain for Port. Freo will make the finals especially when they start getting some of their first line players back from injury.

Brisbane 10.13.73 defeated North Melbourne

Who said that one man doesn't make a difference to a team? Brown has come back to the Lions and kicked 4 goals. It took most of the game but the Lions finally put their nose in front in the last quarter and held on to win. Brown kicked those goals in the second half when the game needed to be won. I can't see either of these teams playing finals this season.

Richmond 16.9.105 defeated Essendon 13.11.89

It was a big crowd and a big game with the Tigers putting in a winning 3^rd quarter during which they kicked 7 goals to 3 by the Bombers in front of an 80,000 plus crowd. Essendon just could not make up that deficit in the last quarter. It certainly notched up a defining win for the young Richmond side and provided enough promise to make the supporters expect a finals appearance this year. The Bombers were not disgraced. Listening to the game the lead changed a numerous number of times and not until late in the 3^rd stanza did the Tigers give themselves a bit of breathing space. Cotchin continues his fine form for Richmond and young Heppel is certainly a star in the making for the Bombers showing fine skills in his first year. Look out next year when Essendon and Richmond players have another year of games under their belts.

Collingwood 20.15.135 defeated Adelaide 14.8.92

Adelaide snatched defeat from victory. Basically the Pies reversed a 30 point deficit and kicked an avalanche of goals in the second half. Collingwood kicked 11 goals in the last quarter and won by 43 points. Lopsided final score considering the Pies didn't wrest back the lead until halfway through the final quarter!! It was a different Pies side that came out after half time and kicked 7 goals to 4 but that was just a mild harbinger for what was to come in the last quarter. Thomas was irresistible for Collingwood, particularly in that second half and it looks like Krakouer has taken the mark of the year going by the comments made on the radio. Players that were down for the Magpies in the first half certainly came to life in the second. The young Adelaide side really deserved to win if a game can be decided in three and half quarters. Thompson was a standout for the Crows and they have a new young player in Sloane whose skill and composure belied his experience. Malthouse got it right in his after match comment this time: Footy is a bizarre game when a team can kick just 2 goals in a half then 18 goals in the second half. Yup.

Hawthorn 15.16.106defeated Sydney 8.12.60

That's a very good win to the Hawks as their victories at that ground have been few and far between. The loss puts the Swans back amongst the ruck and the win for Hawthorn gets them further into the top 8. The next few games should see some firming of ladder positions for the top 6. This was Dreamtime weekend and indigenous players throughout the AFL provided some magic none more match winning than Buddy's 6 goals against the Swans. On top of the goals he had 28 possessions and took 9 marks. Shiels, Birchall and Hodge were also prominent for the Hawks. Maintaining the indigenous theme Goodes was the best for Sydney.

West Coast 26.19.175 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.4.52

Oops! I missed listening to the game and that scoreline is unbelievable. 10 goals the Eagles kicked in the last quarter to no score at all by the Bulldogs!! A 123 point victory? Tipsters might have picked West Coast….. but the margin? Kennedy kicked 10 goals for the Eagles and he was joined for best on ground honours by Shuey and LeCras. Let's face it, when you win by 123 points most, if not all, of the team has played pretty well. Last week the Bulldogs kicked about 19 goals but this week could manage just 8. The Western Bulldogs have major problems and the West Coast Eagles are on the up.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 9

2011-05-19T07:47:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 9

RIP Bobby Davis!!

Was it that many years ago that I used to watch the Footy Show on channel 7 with Bob Davis, Lou Richards and Jack Dyer? Only Lou 'the lip' left now of that trio who were all controlled, sort of, by Ron Casey. For us young footy followers it was a must watch show and of course the Sunday footy show with the handball and the accurate kicking competitions, the scores, the ladder and the basket full of pies (Four 'n' Twenty of course)and sausage smallgoods (was that Watsonia? Can't remember) hamper for the players that came on to be interviewed. Bobby was a real character that's for sure as, of course, was Jack and Lou. Lovable larrikins. Most of us played footy on Saturday at the same time the VFL games were being played so it was our chance to catch up with the latest football news especially if we had missed the Sporting Globe late Saturday edition.

There are still a few footy talk shows on the box but they have lost some impact because games are now played over a number of days and the show cannot give a complete summary of the round. Then of course there is channel 9's Footy Show. As bad as that program is I have to admit it's a lot better than anything I have seen on TV in China unless you're into dating shows. Admittedly there is a language barrier to overcome but methinks that there will be little to capture my interest after I master Mandarin.

Last week 6/8 = 45/61 (73.8%) However I am tempted to take the extra point for the disallowed Collingwood goal kicked by Pendlebury which would have made my tip correct to say nothing of making a few thousand Pies supporters happy. The inconclusive form being shown by some teams is causing concern when placing your tips and it is no better this week. Some of these games can go either way and it's a matter of pure luck and nil science or logic when making some of these selections. Good luck.

Carlton V Geelong at Etihad Friday night

This is shaping to be a very interesting game with the Cats coming off a high as a result of pipping the Pies last week and the Blues coming off a bye which seems to be having an adverse affect on teams according to stats. Could there be an upset here or will Geelong do it for Bobby Davis? There is still some doubt about Carlton's position in the top 4 but they have won a couple of games that have mattered. Winning this one will certainly make that top 4 dream a closer reality. However, Geelong will be a hard nut for the Blues to crack. If they put in four good quarters Carlton will come close.

Geelong by 20

St Kilda V Melbourne At Etihad Saturday

Tipping the winner of this game is best solved by flipping a coin. Impossible to pick a winner on form so I am opting to simply pick the better team overall and it came up tails. If you follow either team don't get disillusioned if one is behind by 5 or 6 goals at the end of the first quarter. Do be afraid, very afraid, if one is winning by that margin at the end of the first quarter. This is also another bad habit they have and a position from which they are likely to lose the game. It's hard to figure the Saints as being premiership runners up last year and to have fallen to this low level so quickly. If they want to get started this season they might as well do it to Melbourne this week.

St Kilda by 21

Port Adelaide V Fremantle at AAMI Saturday

The Power might steal this one even considering their abysmal form. This statement is made due to the amazing run of injuries being suffered by Freo who say they have only 25 fit players to pick from. An upset for the home team here is a distinct possibility. I am tipping Port purely on gut feeling so all logic is out the window on this one.

Port Adelaide by 11

Brisbane V North Melbourne at the Gabba Saturday night

The game sees the return of Brown for the Lions which will help give them a presence in the forward area but might not necessarily win them the game. North has not got a good record at this venue and a generally poor record playing away this season so far. The Lions have been close so many times that they might just give their fans a bit of joy for the first time this season. A Kangaroo win will put them just outside the 8 and a win to Brisbane will get them onto the road to some sort of recovery. Should be a tight game.

Brisbane by 17

Richmond V Essendon at the MCG

These two teams are amongst the big improvers this season and guarantee a good game for the supporters. The Bombers are in the top 4 and the Tigers are knocking on the door of the 8 although last week they let a quarter slip by that eventually lost them the match. Is it time for Essendon to lose a game? Watson and Hocking out for the Bombers tends to even the balance a little. The Richmond midfield of Cotchin and Martin are doing better than okay and the team is showing less dependence on Reiwoldt up forward although he is still kicking goals and currently still leads the goal kicking. Let's hope the Tigers don't let the Bombers get the jump on them.

Richmond by 12

Collingwood V Adelaide at Etihad Sunday

The Collingwood bubble burst last week and if it was not quite a bang it was certainly a pop! They come up against the Crows who are struggling with consistency and field a relatively inexperienced side. If Malthouse can get back to coaching rather than waffling on at press conferences about bread rolls and ears and toes the Pies should win the game. The fact that the AFL came out today and stated that the umpire got it wrong last week in that Pendlebury goal incident won't help Mick's blood pressure either. The Collingwood players will be a bit dirty after that loss to the Cats so they might be a bit more ruthless against Adelaide. If the Crows wilt a bit it will be a massacre.

Collingwood by 42

Sydney V Hawthorn at the SCG Sunday

An injury plagued Hawthorn still gave the Saints a decent touch up last week as did the Swans to Port in the second half. This is a difficult away game for Hawthorn who does not have a good record at this venue. Bolton and Goodes are on fire for the Swans so Hawthorn might have to look at nullifying the impact these two have on the contest. The mean backline of Sydney will not make it easy for Buddy to kick many goals. When you add in the possibility that the Hawks might have to blood a couple of new players the equation starts equalling Sydney for the pick.

Sydney by 19

West Coast V Western Bulldogs at Subiaco Sunday

The Eagles have improved as much as the Bulldogs have gone backwards this season and the fact that the Bullies are travelling to Perth again after a hard game against the Tigers last week means they might struggle to win this match. The bookies have the Eagles as favourites – maybe they know something. The heat has come off Eagles coach Worsfold as a result of a much more competitive and successful West Coast team so far this season. Cox is back to his best and Priddis is showing that he might make it as an elite centreman after winning the derby medal last week. Still, it was a good win by the Bulldogs last week even when they dozed off for half of the third quarter allowing the Tigers a sniff. Another difficult game to pick but I favour the home team.

West Coast by 8

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[AFL-Review] Round 8

2011-05-15T03:27:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 8

Geelong 8.17.65 defeated Collingwood 9.8.62

It was bound to happen eventually and the Cats stole the show and the points in the big game of the undefeated teams at the MCG. Collingwood's problem is not the disallowed goal near the end of the game, it's the fact that Geelong had 25 scoring shots to 17 in a low scoring game. Something to ponder. Another 80,000 plus crowd at a Collingwood game this year – no wonder the AFL loves them! With just a 3 point margin and a disallowed goal you can be sure that the next time they meet tipsters will have the same problem, just who to pick. The result was not convincing enough to suggest that Geelong will win the next time they meet. Selwood was the best for the Cats and Thomas the best for the Pies. Ottens had an impact on the game which suggests that the absence of Jolly for Collingwood was important. The Cats play another tough one next week against Carlton and the Pies meet Adelaide.

North Melbourne 19.10.124 defeated Melbourne 12.11.83

At the end of the first quarter fans would have been saying the Demons by how much. But from the start of the 2^nd quarter it was all the Kangaroos and they over ran a disappointing Melbourne by 41 points. Edwards kicked 6 goals for North. Another amazing form turnaround for tipsters. I agreed with North coach Scott thinking there wasn't a lot between the two teams and with the Trengrove incident and few unexpected injuries the Demons looked fragile coming up against the Kangaroos. North plays a winnable game against Brisbane next week and Melbourne meets the Saints.

Adelaide 20.10.130 defeated Gold Coast Suns 9.19.73

Speaking of form turnarounds…….most people expected the Crows to win and it took them a quarter to get going but they retrieved a lot of the percentage they lost in last week's loss to Melbourne. The form of the Gold Coast team is as expected. Lots of losses amongst their few wins. They're doing ok. Ablett played a blinder in a losing side with over 40 touches and kicking 4 goals. Dangerfield booted 6 for the Crows. The win probably doesn't mean a lot for Adelaide considering the opposition so the game next week against Collingwood will be a better test. The Suns will win a couple more games this season, a good result for a new team.

Essendon 15.12.102 defeated Brisbane 9.12.66

Another game that was won in the second half. At half time the Lions were a point ahead but inside 50's to that stage were Essendon 37 to Brisbane 17, it's just that Essendon were not making the most of their opportunities. It all came together in the second half of the match leaving the Lions on the bottom of the ladder and the Bombers in the top 4. Zaharakis ignited in the second half with 20 possessions and 4 goals and Adcock and Rich played well for the Lions. We know that Jonathon Brown is a big loss for Brisbane but he won't win them games off his own boot every week. Essendon has a tough game next week against Richmond.

Sydney Swans 18.13.121 defeated Port Adelaide 9.5.59

Sydney held a slim 9 point lead at half time but like a couple of other games over the weekend the Swans completely outclassed the Power in the 2^nd half 13 goals to 5 and gave tipsters the expected result. Bolton and Adam Goodes dominated the game for the Swans with Bolton having 33 possessions and 13 tackles and a goal probably getting the Brownlow votes. Port was powerless in the second half making too many mistakes that caused turnovers and resulted in Sydney goals. Sydney plays Hawthorn next week and Port plays Fremantle.

Hawthorn 14.15.99 defeated St Kilda 10.9.69

The Saints kicked 5 goals to 1 point in the first quarter then the Hawks kicked 5 goals to 1 point in the second quarter. From half time though it was all Hawthorn who went on to win the game easily. Will the Saints even make the finals? Buddy kicked 5 for the game and Hodge seemed to return to some sort of form for the first time this year. Jordan Lewis for Hawthorn was dominant with 30 possessions. 2 bad injuries to Hawthorn's Hale and Gilham left the Hawks short in the big man department but Roughead played a great game for them contesting the ruck hitouts successfully.

Western Bulldogs 23.15.153 defeated Richmond 18.10.118

The Tigers allowed the Bulldogs to dominate the first quarter conceding a 6 goal lead. Richmond is not a good enough team to start so slowly and make up the difference when playing the better teams and so it proved. The Bulldogs will be happy to return to the winning list. Halfway through the 3^rd quarter the Tigers had reduced a 52 point deficit to 12 but the Bulldogs steadied and kicked the next 4 goals. The first quarter deficit was maintained to the end. Gilbee kicked 6 for the Bullies and Minson chipped in with 4. Reiwoldt has maintained his leading Coleman medal position with 4 goals for the Tigers. Maybe it was the presence of the Prime Minister that spurred the Bullies on to a big win.

West Coast Eagles 14.12.96 defeated Fremantle 9.9.63

The game was done and dusted by half time and finally West Coast has beaten the Dockers in a Derby. Freo will struggle to play finals this year. The Eagles improvement is looking similar to that of Essendon. Both WA teams are still well in the mix of that middle rung of wanna be's in a race for the top 8. West Coast lost Embley and Kerr in the pre-match warm up and still won the game. Priddis won the Glendinning medal with 27 possessions but Mundy and Fyfe also played as well for Fremantle. Perhaps you can't win a medal if you are in the losing side. West Coast plays the Bulldogs at home next week so they might add to their wins in that game. Fremantle plays Port at AAMI and should win as well.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 8

2011-05-12T08:22:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 8

Last week 6/8 = 39/53 (73.6%)

I will be missing the coverage of the big match between Collingwood and Geelong on Friday night as I will be teaching English to 25 or so Chinese petroleum workers. This new contract has put an end to my happy AFL Friday nights. By the time I get home it will be 10.45pm EST. My other classes barely clash with any other fixture so future Friday night games will have to be replayed if they are any good. I was listening to 3AW this morning and there were a lot of complaints about a gas smell in some Melbourne suburbs and my theory is that the open stack they have on the petroleum refinery here in northern China is to blame. It was belching out some very noxious looking fumes most of the day yesterday and the wind direction was pushing that smoke directly over Australia and subsequently the Melbourne metro area. To add to the suspect environment being experienced we had some sort of sand storm blow in from Mongolia overnight giving the whole province an eerie, orange glow. Anything exposed outside was covered in fine, sand particles and even keeping the inside of the living area clean was a waste of time.

The blurred vision resulting from this atmospheric pollution doesn't help with trying to see the tipping this week either as teams provide their supporters with puzzling form week in and week out. To make matter worse, the two teams that have shown consistent form in all 7 rounds so far meet at the MCG making that a difficult result to predict for the opposite reason. All these middle of the road teams are finding it hard to maintain consistency except, of course, the bottom teams who you know you shouldn't tip because they just can't win…..then do.

We are managing a reasonable tipping percentage overall but need a good 7 or 8 to rise above the pack. Conversely a 4 or, heaven forbid, a 3 right now would take 6 weeks of good tipping to overcome. So fingers crossed for some of the harder games which can go either way. Good luck.

Geelong V Collingwood at the MCG Friday night

There has already been much written about this clash of the ladder leaders, a certain blockbuster for the AFL and for the fans. What has changed between these teams from last year? Ablett has left the Cats. Hard to pick against the Pies. Not so sure it will be that close a game either. I was at the prelim final between these two teams last season and it was all Collingwood. If the margin is greater than 6 or 7 goals the Pies will be unbackable for the flag. And no, they don't need a loss to make them stop thinking they are invincible. Are they?

Collingwood by 21

North Melbourne V Melbourne at Etihad Saturday

The Demons certainly turned it on last week against the Crows. They should have turned off their Twitter though. Trengrove might get off. North might win this game. The teams, although well apart on the ladder, are not so far apart in on-field talent. Can you smell an upset? Apart from the loss of Trengrove the Demons also lost Grimes and Spencer for the season. Considering that there is little between the teams these losses may be the difference.

North Melbourne by 11

Adelaide V Gold Coast Suns at AAMI Saturday

The Suns could win two consecutive games playing Adelaide at AAMI. The Crows have copped a real blast from supporters and press alike in the past week and it might be enough to fire them up. They should win but it won't be easy. Strange as it may seem only percentage separates the teams on the ladder! I think the Crows will bounce back with a vengeance.

Adelaide by 38

Brisbane Lions V Essendon at the Gabba Saturday night

We should not be tipping on form considering some of the results during the first third of the season but I am reluctant to offer an upset here by the Lions. I'm not sure what the Lions can do to turn around their season but whatever it is it won't be applied in this game.

Essendon by 31

Sydney V Port Adelaide at the SCG Saturday night

The Power might be able to win this game if the Swans mistakenly get dropped by the team bus at the Telstra Stadium in error. Sydney might prefer that the game was played at Telstra because they have not won a game at the SCG yet this season. They will fix that statistic this week.

Sydney by 52

Hawthorn V St Kilda at the MCG Sunday

The Saints are starting to get their mojo working a bit more and almost knocked off the Blues last week. All these early losses in the season aren't making life any easier for St Kilda but Hawthorn are far from being a premiership threat either. This could be a really close game. The last time they met it was a draw and as we keep breaking records wouldn't that be a hard one to ever happen again? Two draws in consecutive games?

Hawthorn by 12

Western Bulldogs V Richmond

It's a brave man that will pick the Bulldogs to beat any up and coming team, particularly the Tigers who are looking like a chance for the final 8 – one of the better teams amongst the middle tier group. Not sure what the problem is at the Western Bulldogs but if they don't arrest the slide they will be relegated to finals history like the Saints. The Bullies still have a few outs and one of their best from last year, Lake, is playing in the VFL again this weekend. The Tigers have no injury concerns and not a lot of individual player problems with for either. I'm tipping the Doggies will start their long road back to form with a win here.

Western Bulldogs by 16

West Coast V Fremantle at Subiaco Sunday

The dreaded western derby should have the local paper going ballistic. The Eagles have improved significantly from last year while I think Freo are about the same. It's about time the derby in that state was a draw. Maybe the Dockers by a nose. Pavlich continues to play in the centre of the ground but he might be needed back up forward soon. The last quarter fade out by Freo against Richmond last week makes tipping them this week a bit of a risk but the Eagles haven't beaten the Dockers in a derby for some time so maybe there is a psychological barrier. The West Coast losses this season have been honourable. I'm tipping Freo but the game could go either way.

Fremantle by 7

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[AFL-Review] Round 7

2011-05-09T05:35:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 7

Hawthorn 15.14.104 defeated Port Adelaide 10.12.72

It wasn't until the last quarter that Hawthorn got away from the Power who played well enough to keep the game close for a while. Another knee injury for a player – Rodan of Port this time. Buddy was well held but still managed 3 goals.

Sydney Swans 10.13.73 defeated Western Bulldogs 10.5.65

Well the game was always going to be difficult one from which to pick the winner. Swans got away in the 3^rd quarter and were then able to hold on in the last as the Doggies came at them. So the Western Bulldogs were second favourites for the flag? Not anymore. Sydney might even finish ahead of them at this rate.

Geelong 19.13.127 defeated North Melbourne 9.7.61

Top Cats Kelly, Selwood and Bartel were impossible to stop by North. Almost 100 possessions and 3 goals between them tells a story. As expected North took it up to Geelong for a quarter and a half but skill and experience in the Geelong side started to tell after that. Geelong cruised to a 10 goal win.

Richmond 23.10.148 defeated Fremantle 14.15.99

First half of this game was played at a cracking pace and the Dockers were 2 points up at half time. But near the end of the 3^rd quarter the young Tigers kicked late goals and surprisingly Fremantle went down with hardly a whimper in the last. 14 goals to 5 in the second half made it a bad loss for Freo but a very heartening one for the Tigers.

Gold Coast Suns 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 17.14.116

What a game of footy!! Krakaoer for the Suns took the mark of the year then kicked a goal taking his tally to 5 for the night. McGrath kicked 6 goals in the 2^nd half for the Lions. Mercenary Brennan best on ground. For the mathematicians that's a 147 point turnaround by Gold Coast. Tipster nightmares continue as does the nightmares for Michael Voss.

Essendon 16.10.106 defeated West Coast Eagles 12.18.90

The Bombers buried West Coast in the 3^rd quarter when they kicked 6 goals to zip. Then the Eagles exacerbated the situation with inaccurate kicking in the last quarter. How can a team go to sleep so badly when at half time they are leading? Prior to that 3^rd quarter the bets would have been on West Coast. Strange game.

Melbourne 22.17.149 defeated Adelaide 8.5.53

There's nothing quite like a 96 point win to give a coach some breathing space. Big breaths Bailey!! There's nothing like a 96 point hiding to give a coach that crushing feeling of hopelessness. Get Neil a brown paper bag. The Demons lost by 9 goals last week. The Crows beat St Kilda by 3 goals last week. Can anybody tell me what's going on with consistency and form? Me either but I did tip the Demons.

Carlton 11.18.84 defeated St Kilda 12.9.81

The Blues looked like they had the game in the bag a couple of times but when the Saints kicked a swag of goals they actually put themselves 3 points up at the 27 minute mark. A Walker goal for Carlton with about a minute to go gave them back a 3 point lead and that's how it finished. Exciting game for Monday night.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 7

2011-05-05T07:33:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 7

Last week 5/7. Total 33/45 (73.3%)

Apologies for the bad tip I gave you last week of Swans beating Carlton. It almost happened but the tip was probably a long shot in the context of current form. The surprise result for most last week was the win by the Adelaide Crows against the Saints.

Again this week there are some difficult games from which to make selections of confidence as the form of a few teams is a bit up and down. Bit like the weather in Northern China, highly unpredictable. Or the driving – totally unpredictable! This country is the only one I know where a pedestrian can suffer acute road rage. You can be hit by a car on a zebra crossing (because the local drivers will only make way for zebras I think). You can be hit by a car walking on the correct side of the road. You can be hit by a car walking on the footpath because vehicles have access to and use the sidewalks when driving. You can be hit by a car crossing an intersection when you have the green walking man. You can be hit by a car walking in the shopping centre car park. You can be hit by a car while standing on an upraised, concrete median strip. You are never safe when you walk anywhere here. You can maintain a reasonable level of fitness just dodging traffic in China. I've dropped 5 kilos but I am a nervous wreck. There's always a downside to keeping fit I think!

One of the definites I can offer you this week is that Collingwood will remain undefeated. Good luck.

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Friday Night

There are some funny things happening at AAMI this season but the hilarity of the situation would be lost on the Hawks if they lost this one. The Crows beat Hawthorn here in the 1^st round and Port beat Adelaide at this venue later on. Surely not? No. Rioli hasn't passed a fitness test so that's a bit of a loss for Hawthorn. How many goals will Franklin kick in this game? Six or seven.

Hawthorn by 33

Western Bulldogs V Sydney in Canberra Saturday

This game is most difficult from which to pick a winner with any certainty. The Bulldogs got a thumping by Collingwood last week albeit in a 15 minute burst and the Bullies did have a few players out. The Swans were beaten by Carlton. Toss of a coin says Western Bulldogs. No reason. But I guess with Jacks out for the Swans and Hudson back for the Dogs the balance teeters in their favour. Not a lot in it though.

Western Bulldogs by 12

Geelong V North Melbourne at Skilled Saturday

It's hard to see the unbeaten Cats give up their run in this game although North won convincingly last week. The problem with that win was that the opposition was only Port Adelaide. They will give Geelong a scare early but won't be able to sustain the pace and skill. It's rather a unique situation in the coaching boxes with the Scott twins against each other. Are all those studies they did with twins and the way in which they can mentally communicate with each other have any basis in fact? It would be a bit eerie to see Chris Scott make a strategic on field change for the Cats and have Brad counter the move almost immediately because he knew what his twin was thinking. There's a great scientific opportunity going begging here and the AFL should go with it. I mean if there's a quid in it of course.

Geelong by 31

Richmond V Fremantle at the MCG Saturday night

Here's another game that can go either way. Every time I pick Freo to lose they win. When I picked them to win they lost against Geelong. Coming off a bye should help but the experts are saying the players switch off mentally the week after a bye???? The young Tigers can win this one at home. Dustin Martin is having a great impact in the centre of the ground for the Tigers and along with Foley they could take away the advantage that Freo's Sandilands has in the hit outs. Pavlich, Fyfe and Mundy are playing well for Fremantle too so the midfield stats should be interesting. The Dockers wanted more playing time at the MCG so here's there chance to get used to the ground.

Richmond by 11

Gold Coast V Brisbane Lions at the Gabba Saturday Night

Now we have a Queensland Derby which will go the way of other inaugural derbies with the older team usually winning. I can't see a change to that scenario. Brisbane will climb off the bottom of the ladder and Gold Coast will go return to the bottom. Don't expect them to be thrashed by over 100 points though. Mercenaries for the Suns, Brennan and Rischetelli, need to play well again as does Ablett for the Gold Coast to make a reasonable game of this. AFL is a mercenary game these days and players need to make the most of their time in the industry so it will be interesting to see if Western Sydney can make mercenaries of a few more Brisbane players like Simon Black and Jonathon Brown!!

Brisbane by 54

Essendon V West Coast Eagles at Etihad Sunday

The Bombers come off a huge win against the Suns last week and the Eagles were pretty convincing against the Demons as well so this should be an interesting match. Neither team will have it as easy as last week and this far into the season they are both in the top 8 with 3 wins apiece – good starts to the season for two teams that played so poorly last year. I think the Bombers have improved more than West Coast. The Hird factor is proving all it was touted to be and the pressure by the Essendon board to get James Hird as their coach is paying immediate dividends. The game is a good test for West Coast too who came close to rolling the Hawks in Tassie a couple of weeks ago.

Essendon by 15

Melbourne V Adelaide at the MCG Sunday

Two totally unpredictable form teams playing off to determine their levels of inconsistency!? The Demons really need to stand up this week at home for their members because these same members are already crying for some coach blood letting. Pitiful one week, powerful the next. The Crows have beaten Hawthorn and St Kilda, good scalps if you don't look at who has beaten them….like the Power. It's a home team call. While I wouldn't call it one of the Wonders of the World you have to ask why Melbourne continues to struggle with all those premium draft picks playing for them and that's something that certainly has us all wondering.

Melbourne by 16

St Kilda V Carlton at Etihad on Monday

Why is this game on Monday? I forget. Carlton is showing far more consistent form than the Saints who seem to be in some dreadful post Grand Final year slump. Quite inexplicable. I tipped against the Blues last week, dare I do it again? No, but it could go either way if the Saints can do something about their weak attack. The loss of Lenny Hayes has not helped St Kilda this year but then again the loss of Reiwoldt for most of last season didn't seem to halt their march towards the grand final. There is something else wrong at St Kilda and Carlton will take advantage of that.

Carlton by 19

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[AFL-Review] Round 6

2011-05-01T05:58:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 6

Oops! Sorry dear readers. I sent you the shortened version of the review in error. Herewith, below, are the true events as they happened. Well, as I heard them in China, like Chinese whispers really where the result is the only real fact passed on, the rest is hearsay.

West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Melbourne 6.16.52

A rather insipid display by Melbourne may cause one coach some embarrassment while it provides another with relief. The Demons seem to be in some sort of form limbo and the Eagles continue their bright start to the season. There was, of course, an immediate call for the axing of Bailey as the coach of the Demons and while I doubt that will happen during the season I would be looking at alternate employment if I was him at the end of the year. The result proved to be a mini salvation for Worsfold whose position at the Eagles looked rather tenuous too. Yes, it's rather early to be talking sacking of coaches but what other interest is there in this game? Kerr put in a good game for West Coast but the opposition was average and Cox continues to be a dominant ruckman for the Eagles although Jamar tried his best for the Dees who face Adelaide in their next game. West Coast will be tested against the Bombers next week.

Carlton 12.15.87 defeated Sydney 10.11.71

A dirty evening weather wise but lots to like with the win scored by the Blues in heavy conditions. The Swans might consider themselves unlucky with an interchange infringement that came at a crucial time in a close game. The penalty for this infringement is way out of balance for a perceived advantage. Carlton gained a bit of breathing space with that win and the Swans stay lurking amongst the middle tier of teams. Judd turned it on for the Blues and undoubtedly got the umpires' votes and Betts contributed 4 goals, 3 of them when the game was there to be won. Swans play the Bulldogs next week and Carlton meets St Kilda.

North Melbourne 18.25.133 defeated Port Adelaide 10.13.73

The woe continues for the Power this season as they make plans for somewhere to display the wooden spoon after a comprehensive hiding by North Melbourne. Shots on goal, inside 50's and tackles for North counted almost double that of Port at the end of the game. North captain Harvey was back into form and North ruckman Goldstein probably got BOG with his fine efforts. Motlop was a shining light for Port when all around them is darkness and he kicked 4 goals. Neither team will win next week either as North plays Geelong and Port plays Hawthorn.

Richmond 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 14.14.98

The game was close as expected even though the Lions were held goalless in the 2^nd quarter. They came out and kicked 7 goals in the 3^rd and momentarily took the lead. Richmond two weeks in a row has been able to give their fans winning last quarters. Foley dominated for the Tigers and Martin played another very good game. Reiwoldt slotted 5 goals as is his wont at full forward and Power kicked 4 for the Lions for whom Simon Black was best. The Lions are waiting for the return of their skipper Jonathon Brown and his presence might help get a reasonable Brisbane side over the line in the closer games which at the moment they are losing. The Lions play their new Brisbane brothers the Gold Coast Suns next week so they should register a win and get off the bottom of the ladder. Richmond will have a tough game against Freo albeit the game is at the MCG, but, Fremantle have been travelling well winning both away games this season so far.

Adelaide 13.12.90 defeated St Kilda 9.17.71

Somebody tell me what's actually going on with these two sides? Their form is making it impossible to pick them with any confidence week to week. Disappointing Saints and a puzzling Adelaide. Reiwoldt was a loss for the Saints in the last quarter when he was not allowed to play after being knocked out at the end of the third quarter. Would you want to be the Reiwoldt family doctor? Abused by Jack at Richmond and ditto by Nick at St Kilda because you don't allow them to play after concussion. Thompson was best for the Crows and Dal Santo best for the Saints for whom life does not get any easier when they play Carlton next week. Adelaide, with 2 wins, might sneak up the ladder with games against the Demons and the Suns in the next couple of weeks.

Essendon 31.11.197 defeated Gold Coast 8.10.58

The Bombers kicked the highest first quarter score in AFL history with 15 goals! The Gold Coast replied with…….one point which is all they had time for. Reimers booted 8 goals and the Bombers had the last kick of the day to make the Essendon score 200 but it was offline. That's about the only sad note for the Bombers. Gold Coast won last week so it was back to harsh reality today. I wonder what Hird said to his players at quarter time. "Righto guys, we can do better than that." ?? Somebody see if there's a tape showing the Essendon coach addressing the team at quarter time. Conversely, what did Bluey McKenna say to his charges at quarter time. "Righto guys, we can still win it from here, remember last week when we came from 40 points down??!!"

Collingwood 15.15.105 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

The Bulldogs started with a flourish and led at quarter time. 5 minutes into the last quarter the scores were level after Collingwood had gotten out to a 28 point lead. From that time in the last quarter the Pies kicked 8 unanswered goals and won by that margin – 48 points. 4 goals came from the boot of Leigh Brown an unlikely winner of leading goal kicker for the day. The Bulldogs have won just 2 of their first 5 games so where will they finish this season? Collingwood has a bye then they play Geelong, also undefeated, in a Friday night blockbuster at the 'G'. A convincing win in that game will shorten the premiership odds on the Pies even more and have most teams happy that Collingwood has 2 byes this season.

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[AFL-Review] Round 6

2011-05-01T02:29:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 6

West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Melbourne 6.16.52

Carlton 12.15.87 defeated Sydney 10.11.71

North Melbourne 18.25.133 defeated Port Adelaide 10.13.73

Richmond 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 14.14.98

Adelaide 13.12.90 defeated St Kilda 9.17.71

Somebody tell me what's actually going on with these two sides? Their form is making it impossible to pick them with any confidence week to week. Disappointing Saints and a puzzling Adelaide.

Essendon 31.11.197 defeated Gold Coast 8.10.58

Collingwood 15.15.105 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

[AFL-Preview] Round 6

2011-04-27T04:47:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 6

Last week 5 from 7 Total 28/38 (73.7%)

I guess there might be a smug tipster out there who jagged the Gold Coast Suns' win but I'll bet they are few and far between. Some of the games could have gone either way and even the AFL says that the round was one of the closest in its history with results and the best for attendance. 170,000 at the MCG over 2 days of football certainly helped with those days being Anzac Day and the Tuesday extra day holiday. If folks weren't going away for Easter then 4 days of football made for a great weekend. I'd also be putting some money on Good Friday being added to the fixtures next year. The commercialism of Easter is non-existent in China as is the feast of Easter, a fact I'm sure most of you are aware of. No supermarket aisles filled with chocolate Easter eggs here in China as was the case in Oz since about February I was told. There was a request that we introduce some Easter customs to the kids, such as painting boiled eggs and maybe an egg hunt but the idea lost pace and didn't eventuate mainly due to lack of interest. Any religious discussion about Easter was, of course, not allowed. On a positive note there has been nary a word about the royal wedding here in China – blessed relief! I understand our Prime Minister is in the Chinese neighbourhood this week so maybe she is avoiding Easter and the royal wedding publicity as well.

Progress with AFL introduction here is slow but I have managed to form teams in the classroom and called them Eagles, Hawks and Magpies the importance of which is completely lost on the kids. We will succeed. Weather is getting warmer and some buds on trees and bushes have nervously appeared so maybe they think the temperature will rise soon. I'm not so sure. We reached 13 today but the previous few days we never made double figures. The evening temperature still hovers around zero to 2 and 3 days ago all central heating for apartment complexes in the province was turned off! Back to the PJ's! Although we missed out on the Easter break they still have May Day for the 1^st of May here so next weekend we have 3 days off. I am sincerely hoping that doesn't mean fireworks though.

The Easter and Anzac Day fixtures have made it a bit of a rush getting results and previews to you but we have made it! The tipping will get harder as we see form changes occurring on an almost weekly basis, much of it puzzling for tipsters but I am sure fully explainable by coaches. It seems that the Cats are drawing a line in the sand for Collingwood and in a couple of weeks' time we will see the top two teams, probably still undefeated, play off for clear premiership favouritism. The possibility of more draws this season is high. Good luck.

West Coast V Melbourne at Subiaco Thursday night

With both teams coming off a bye the players should be rested enough to last out the game. For tipsters the form of both these teams makes picking a winner difficult. Against better judgement the tip is West Coast as the home team. The Demons haven't travelled well and certainly not to Perth where they have not beaten West Coast since 2002. The Eagles seem a little more potent up forward and that might be a deciding factor. Expect a close game though.

West Coast by 11

Sydney V Carlton at the SCG Friday night

The Blues have had 2 close games in the past two weeks, as has Sydney. Carlton has forward problems against teams with reasonable backlines and they will struggle in this match with Sydney at home. Walker has done okay with 11 so far this season but he might get limited opportunities against a strong Sydney backline. Jack, Bolton and Goodes are equal to Judd, Murphy and Gibbs so this game is no pushover for either team.

Sydney by 12

North Melbourne V Port Adelaide at Etihad Saturday

The Power was beaten by the Suns last week. Can they get over the humiliation of that? Can North Melbourne kick a little straighter? Did Scott say his North team is better than last year? They had better start winning then. Primus apoligised to the Port supporters for their meek surrender last week against the Suns and it's a leading question as to whether the Power players can overcome that ignominious defeat in this game against North. Neither team will make the finals.

North by 28

Richmond V Brisbane Lions at the MCG Saturday night

Richmond snatched victory from defeat against North last week and Brisbane was just beaten by the Saints. Even though both teams are lingering on the bottom and will linger longer the game should be tough as the Lions will want to open their account and the Tigers would love two wins in a row. Another draw? Possibly.

Richmond by 7

Adelaide V St Kilda at AAMI Saturday night

Neither team is showing a great deal of good form but a lot of inconsistency. Normally at home the Crows grow an extra leg but their effort against the Power was abysmal. St Kilda was at its worst against Essendon but they hopefully gained a bit of momentum from that win against the Lions last week. Experience might be the key.

St Kilda by 19

Essendon V Gold Coast at Etihad Sunday

History making win by the Suns last week against a hapless Power but they will find this a lot harder against a pumped up Essendon who really pushed Collingwood last week on Anzac day. If Essendon is still tired after the game against the Pies they might find this a lot tougher than they would have hoped.

Essendon by 39

Collingwood V Western Bulldogs at the MCG Sunday

It's difficult for a tipster to pick against Collingwood this season although the occasion will inevitably come when they will lose a game. The Bulldogs look a bit wishy washy so far this season and that will not be good enough to beat the Pies.

Collingwood by 29

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[AFL-Review] Round 5

2011-04-26T02:12:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 5

St Kilda 13.11.89 defeated Brisbane Lions 11.10.76

The margin was a little closer than the Saints would have liked but they did enough in the last quarter to win the game. Valiant effort by the Lions in a game played in difficult conditions, humidity and slippery ball. Maybe this is enough to get the season on track for St Kilda. Clarke was the leading forward in the game kicking 4 for the Lions. Montagna had the most possessions assisted by Del Santo, while Adcock and Redden played well for Brisbane. The Saints play Adelaide next and Brisbane takes on the Tigers.

Gold Coast Suns 15.14.104 defeated Port Adelaide 15.11.101

My god! Not many would have thought the Suns could notch their first win this early in the season. On top of that the game was played at AAMI, the Power's home ground. Would love to be a fly on the wall in the Port Adelaide dressing room after the game! In most games this year the Suns have barely kicked more than 6 or 7 goals and they managed to do that in the last quarter of this game to come from 40 points down!! Amazing. Rischetelli dominated for the Suns who welcomed Ablett back as he gathered some telling last quarter possessions helped by Swallow to turn the game around. The result certainly throws some doubt into future tipping.

Carlton 11.19.85 defeated Adelaide 12.7.79

Almost another draw after a form reversal from Adelaide from the week before gave the Blues a big fright. The scores were level with just a couple of minutes left but the dreaded 'D' word was not required….well it was in a way – 'D'efeat for Adelaide. The Blues were not rewarded in front of goal and their 30 scoring shots to Adelaide's 19 told the story. The game looked all over at quarter time as Carlton blitzed the Crows 5 goals to 1 but Adelaide hung in and made it a real scrap. The respective Walkers kicked 4 goals apiece. Judd and Murphy played well for the Blues and Johncock and Dangerfield ditto for Adelaide. Another danger game for Carlton next week against the Swans.

Richmond 17.10.112 defeated North Melbourne 14.19.103

Another close game over the Easter Anzac day holiday as Richmond piled on 7 goals in the last quarter to just pip a valiant North Melbourne. Tiger full forward kicked 5 and his North opposite kicked 6. Dustin Martin played a blinder for the Tigers with over 30 possessions and 4 goals and Petrie for North was prominent. Apparently Reiwoldt took the Mark of The Year during the game but it's a long season. The Tigers get another chance next week to win a game against Brisbane and North might also be in the winning circle as they meet Port Adelaide.

Collingwood 16.11.107 defeated Essendon 11.11.77

A great crowd on Anzac day to watch a great game of football. For the first time this season the Pies were really challenged and the final margin is a bit complimentary to Collingwood as the Bombers got within 2 points of the Pies early in the final quarter. Memorable. Pendlebury picked up back to back Anzac medals with a dominant game all over the ground including his 3 goals. Crameri kicked 4 for the Dons and Heppel was outstanding as a first year player. The Pies meet the Bulldogs next week and Essendon will be hoping for a good win against the Gold Coast.

Fremantle 12.13.85 defeated Western Bulldogs 11.12.78

Two matches this round had tied scores in the last quarter. Fremantle led most of the night until about 20 minutes into the last quarter when the Bulldogs kicked a couple of quick goals to lead by a few points. Somehow, and unlike the Freo of old, the Dockers fought and clawed back to a one point lead then kicked a goal almost on the siren. Not sure what ails the Western Bulldogs this year but again their pre-season publicity for favouritism behind Collingwood seems to be misplaced. The Bulldogs have beaten the two QLD sides. Imagine if Fremantle had the midfielders to take advantage of the dominance of Sandilands? They would go premiers! Kepler Bradley is proving to be a handy forward for the Dockers and kicked 4 in this game as did Sherman for the Bulldogs. Boyd managed 45 possessions for the game to be best afield and Mundy was the best for Fremantle with 29 touches and 2 goals. Freo have a bye next week.

Geelong 17.15.117 defeated Hawthorn 15.8.98

Another HUGE crowd at the 'G' to finish off the Easter break and they were treated to a great game of football a second day in a row. Hawthorn raced out of the blocks but the Cats eventually got back into the game and a great third quarter set up the victory. Buddy was everywhere in the 1^st quarter and nowhere in the next 3 apart from a late goal in the game. Taylor and Scarlett dominated the back lines for Geelong with the latter also having almost 30 touches, a lot for a back man. Chapman kicked crucial goals when Geelong really needed them and Selwood has moved into Ablett's spot as the Cat's prime mover. Hodge for the Hawks had a poor start to the season with injury so he is not anywhere near his best. Mitchell played his usual good game and Bateman was very handy for the Hawks with 3 goals in a seesawing game. Both teams have a bye next week.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 5

2011-04-20T05:44:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 5

Last week 6 from 7 – Total 23 / 31 (74.2%) AFL / VFL history books have been taken out of bookshelves to check what the record number of draws there has been in a season. I can't remember a year in which there were three draws in the first four rounds let alone over a whole season and is this the result of the overall AFL grand scheme to even out the competition? In a way that's working but over the past few years there has been a team that has stood head and shoulders above the rest for short periods, like 3 – 4 years. Brisbane, Geelong and maybe now Collingwood. It has taken these teams years to get to that stage though. West Coast was the same in 1995 to 1997. But then if that's the case what about teams like Melbourne and Richmond, the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda all of whom have gone for many, many years without a premiership? The salary cap and the draft picks have worked their magic in a fashion. But there has also been an insidious side to the AFL when they saw that one team cities like Perth and Adelaide would dominate the competition if it was not allowed for another team in the same town to be given that licence to play AFL resulting in Fremantle and Port Adelaide. Whichever way you look at it though, a drawn game in a sport that can have teams scoring points and goals within seconds of play is still a wondrous thing to behold. If you add the drawn Grand Final from last year we have had 4 draws in 6 rounds of football!! There's a Shakespearian phrase that just doesn't come to mind to cover the phenomenon! Looking at the form of the teams playing this weekend the chance of a drawn game again is still possible. Watch this space and good luck in the tipping.

Brisbane V St Kilda at the Gabba Thursday Night

The Saints and the Lions are off a break so nobody should get tired playing this game. The form of St Kilda is a worry for tipsters but the Saints should notch their first win of the season against Brisbane. Brown still missing for the Lions might be offset a little with Lenny Hayes out for the Saints. Last time they played here the Saints scraped home by 14 points. I think they can do a little better this time.

St Kilda by 39

Port Adelaide V Gold Coast Saturday afternoon at AAMI

The Power won their first game last week against same state rivals the Crows and that form will be enough to carry into this game against a young, learning Gold Coast. Let's hope the Suns don't get thrashed but it's possible. Gold Coast will welcome the return of Ablett but this one player a win does not bring.

Port Adelaide by 66

Carlton V Adelaide at Etihad Saturday Night

The Blues got out of jail last week with that drawn game against the Bombers while Adelaide was just woeful in a game that most thought they would win. The Crows are just as likely to come out firing this week but on form you have to back Carlton to get back into the winning circle. The Blues need to find a consistent avenue to kick goals because over the past couple of games they haven't managed a decent score. Conversely the Crows have a potent forward line when allowed and it's that inconsistency in their game that makes them difficult to tip.

Carlton by 22

North Melbourne V Richmond at Etihad Sunday afternoon

If you've had a big Easter dinner with the family and you're not a North or Richmond supporter perhaps a picnic by the river is a better option than watching this game between two teams who have yet to win. Either team can win and another draw would not surprise in a season filled with draws already. Maybe the Tigers have a bit more goal kicking power. North coach Scott reckons his team is better this year than last so a hard fought win for them is as likely as a win for the Tigers. Toss of a coin really and it's a tip that will be difficult to pencil in until the final siren.

Richmond by 12

Essendon V Collingwood at the MCG Anzac Day

The traditional Anzac day game is on an Easter Monday so do people get an extra day off? The game was sold out over a week ago so expect 90,000 fans at the 'G' to see another Collingwood victory. The excitement of the day will help the Bombers with an adrenalin rush early but don't expect a young Essendon side to be beating class players all day or for long enough to post a winning score. The margin last time they met was 98 points and while a repeat of that is not possible with the way the Bombers are playing under new coach Hird they do need to keep it under 10 goals.

Collingwood by 48

Fremantle V Western Bulldogs at Subiaco Monday night

This is a good test for Fremantle coming up against a Bulldogs side that had a rest last week and who won two easy games but got a hiding from Essendon. There was another big injury for the Dockers with the loss of Suban so their depth will be tested against a slick Bulldog side. Freo lost a close one to Geelong at Subiaco and it's possible that they will lose another close one at home to the Western Bulldogs. For tipsters it's difficult to pick the form of the Bulldogs as this is a better test for them than the last two outings. Most bets will be on Fremantle but I'm thinking for tipsters this might be a bit of an upset.

Western Bulldogs by 11

Hawthorn V Geelong at the MCG Tuesday afternoon

This round has stretched out over 6 days culminating in the game of the round between two of the likely contenders for runners up. Expect another big crowd interested to see what these teams can produce under pressure. The Hawks still look a little fragile at times but the Cats have shown that experience and class doesn't go away over a season. In two tight finishes Geelong has shown the value of its 'aging' brigade as they eked out thrilling wins against St Kilda and Fremantle, experience that will be needed against the Hawks – and it might be just enough.

Geelong by 17

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[AFL-Review] Round 4

2011-04-17T04:00:00.001-07:00

AFL Review Round 4

Collingwood 24.17.161 defeated Richmond 13.12.90

At one stage early in the second quarter the Pies were 8 goals ahead and for some reason they allowed the Tigers right back into the game conceding 6 goals. It looked okay for Richmond until Collingwood applied their usual few minutes of pressure eventually winning the game easily by 71 points. The Tigers, although not happy with the end result, can gain some confidence in their third quarter when they outpaced and outplayed the Pies to get within 4 goals. But when a team gets close to Collingwood it seems like a sleeping giant is awoken and they play another class of footy for as long as it takes to snuff out a challenge. Swan had over 30 possessions and kicked 4 goals. I wonder who will get the Brownlow votes for the game. Collingwood meets Essendon on Anzac day and Richmond might register a win against North.

Carlton drew with Essendon

Two major Essendon injuries to Wunderlich and Dempsey did not help the Bombers much and will probably, in retrospect, say it cost them the game. Maybe. It was an exciting last quarter with the lead changing a number of times. Another draw this season! Unbelievable! A couple of late opportunities for the Blues when Simpson kicked out on the full and Fletcher ran down Garlett before he could get boot to ball for a score will be talked about as pivotal but remember it was Simpson who put the Blues in front with the last goal kicked in the match. "Inspector Gadget" Fletcher was judged best afield so not sure what that means when a 37 year old is the best player amongst such youth. Jobe Watson has certainly reached another level in his football and watch out Brownlow. The Bombers meet the Pies in their next game on Anzac Day and Carlton play Adelaide.

Hawthorn 10.12.72 defeated West Coast 9.11.65

The result was much closer than expected so is Hawthorn as good as they say they are and are the Eagles as bad as we say they are? If West Coast can win some of the close games they might be a final 8 contender. Franklin seems to have emerged as the match saver in the game kicking six for the day but his three goals in the last quarter was the difference. Sam Mitchell had the ball 37 times so his impact was also significant. Priddis played a great game for the Eagles and Kennedy was the avenue to goal for West Coast kicking 4. Rumour has it that Whoosha's coaching position is in doubt but maybe he can get the West Coast to a reasonable position if they can maintain this early season form. If the Hawks are on the second line of betting for the premiership then for the Pies it's a cakewalk!

Port Adelaide14.14.98 defeated Adelaide 9.12.66

Well who would have thought? At the end of the first quarter it was a question of Adelaide by how much. After the first quarter there was a total form reversal by both teams with Port, who were down by 5 goals kicking 14 while the Crows kicked 5, allowing Port to win by 5 goals. Rodan was a real spark for the Power but Westhoff with 2 goals, 10 marks and 24 touches won man of the match award. Port's miserable start to the season looks a lot brighter with games against the Suns and North to come but Adelaide looks like repeating last year's start as they have to play Carlton and St Kilda.

Geelong 11.15.81 defeated Sydney 7.12.54

The game was played in wet, tough conditions and that was a telling factor for Sydney who has had 3 tough games and a trip to the west. Geelong was far too good in the end and remains undefeated, like Collingwood, at the end of 4 rounds. Chapman and Johnson were match winners for the Cats and Jacks and Kennedy tried hard for the Swans. It's possible that Johno's mark might win him mark of the year although it's a bit early to say. Geelong has a tough one against Hawthorn next week and Sydney gets a bye.

Melbourne 23.21.159 defeated Gold Coast 9.15.69

The Suns kicked their highest score and also won a quarter of football. All good signs for the Gold Coast but it would have been too much to think they would finish a lot closer than they did. Some much needed percentage for the Demons, another lesson for the Suns. An 8 goal to 1 last quarter was extremely disappointing for Gold Coast. There's nothing like urinating in public to give a guy motivation to play great footy and Brent Maloney of Melbourne showed why he should be re-instated as vice captain. He had 32 possessions and kicked a goal and was ably assisted by Trengrove a 2^nd year player for the Dees. Swallow for the Suns showed his class but with Ablett and Brown missing from their side Gold Coast were going to struggle even more. Melbourne also has a bye next week and Gold Coast…..well it doesn't matter does it?

Fremantle 18.19.127 defeated North Melbourne 14.14.98

As expected the Dockers took a while to shake North Melbourne off but they played a premiership 3^rd quarter which gave them a match winning lead. A nice start to the season for Freo and it's still disastrous for North. The Dockers lost another player with a broken leg, not a common injury in football so a bit unlucky. Young Nick Suban was going okay for them as well before that tragic injury. Pavlich was dominant with 34 possessions and Ballantyne kicked 4 goals for the Dockers. Swallow was the best for North. Freo gets another game at home when they play the Western Bulldogs.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 4

2011-04-14T06:02:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 4

17 / 24 = 70.8%

While the weather starts cooling down in Australia in Northern China we are experiencing some welcome, warm days. 25 today, while completely unexpected as it was 5 last week with a wind chill of -3, was fantastic and people, like hibernating bears, emerged from their apartment blocks and took to the streets to shop at recently set up roadside stalls, play cards on street corners, mah-jong in apartment courtyards and exercise in the parks on state provided gymnasium equipment. Bicycles and scooters have appeared on the streets and sidewalks in their hundreds. This city is only small with about 2.2 million but you get a better idea of just how many people that really is when they all decide to come outside into the summer weather. There is a distinct lack of AFL conversation on the street corners and inside shops and restaurants, probably due to the fact that (a) I cannot understand a word they are saying and (b) it's doubtful that AFL football holds a leading edge in the conversational interest of a Chinese person. While I would like to think that the confrontational stares I get as I walk down the streets is due to the Collingwood premiership t-shirt I am wearing I am sure it's more likely because there are so few foreigners in this part of the world so we are an oddity and in fact, probably more than 50% of the population in Heilongjiang Province have never even seen a white Caucasian, except maybe in Harbin, the capital of the area, because that city is overrun with Russians and incidentally has a population of around 9 million!!

If the AFL really wanted to expand their franchise I would suggest a foray into China might have some possibilities because let's face it, if only 5% of the population took to the greatest game on earth that would be an additional audience of 75 million!! I'm doing my bit to promote teams but the kids here do not know what a magpie, hawk, eagle or swan is let alone bombers, power, blues, suns and dockers! Lions and tigers? No problem. If North Melbourne continues to have identity difficulties I strongly suggest a name change to the Pandas with a move of training camp from Arden street to Beijing and let's see the rush for membership tickets then! I need a football here too, a Sherrin with pump, because my opportunity to teach an outdoor game today resulted in a lesson in tunnel ball, an old favourite but hardly an introduction to the game of Aussie Rules. I think I have a long way to go because the girls' team beat the boys….convincingly.

In the first 3 rounds of AFL we can all agree that the surprise is the form of Essendon and St Kilda which is causing tipsters some teething problems. However, if the current form of both these teams continues then it will certainly add a bit of spice into the tipping results. Will the Bombers lighten up? Will the Saints intensify? Only 7 games this weekend because we have 3 teams taking a bye so if anybody tells you they got eight correct over round 4 you know they are full of it! Good luck.

Richmond V Collingwood at the MCG Friday night

The Tigers were given a football lesson last week against Hawthorn and it's safe to say that school is back in on Friday night with Collingwood taking over the tutoring from where the Hawks left off. It's very hard to see how the Richmond midfield can beat their Collingwood counterparts considering the class the Pies have in that area. Dawes and Cloke and even Blair up forward will challenge most backlines. The Tigers need to get the ball as often as possible to Riewoldt to have any chance…not to win, but to lessen the margin.

Collingwood by 60

Hawthorn V West Coast at Aurora Saturday

The Eagles will lose their competitive edge if they continue with injuries although even with their best 22 they would struggle to win this game against the Hawks. West Coast has been surprising with their two wins so far, particularly the win against Port in Adelaide but beating Hawthorn at Aurora is a bit beyond them albeit they have won here twice. The Eagles will win the ruck contests but that might be about it. Buddy and Roughead up forward will challenge the Eagle backline and there is the return of Rioli to contend with as well.

Hawthorn by 41

Carlton V Essendon at the MCG Saturday

This is certainly the game of the round and we can expect about 70,000 at the MCG to watch the contest. The Bombers have beaten the Saints and the Bulldogs, both supposedly better teams than Carlton so logical thinking leans towards an Essendon win. Maybe. Jobe Watson is doing most of the centre clearances on his own and he comes up against Judd, Scotland and Murphy. There might be just a bit too much experience in the Blues line up but don't underestimate the Bombers in this game.

Carlton by 22

Sydney V Geelong at the SCG Saturday night

The Swans have somehow worked their way into 3^rd position on the ladder and they play Geelong who is second. It's conceivable Sydney could win and expect a close game but Geelong will be a tough nut to crack for most teams this year. They have surprised many with their early season form as has Sydney. Goodes, apart from his first game, is in great form and in the company of Jacks and Bolton the team is going great guns early. The Cats have a few players like Bartel, Ling since his return, Kelley, Selwood after his concussion and Varcoe also in good form but Stevie Johnson probably needs to lift. Could we have another draw?

Geelong by 19

Port Adelaide V Adelaide at AAMI Saturday night

It's the SA derby and neither team is travelling too well. When in doubt pick the home team? Hmmm, can't say that either. The tip is Adelaide but there is no sane reason for the selection. The teams both hold low ladder positions but like all derbies expect a bit of passion in the play as city pride is on the line again.

Adelaide by 29

Gold Coast V Melbourne at the Gabba Sunday

The Suns have a couple of games experience in the big time and they meet Melbourne who narrowly beat the Brisbane Lions last week. Gold Coast won't be beaten by 12 goals this week but they won't win either. Campbell Brown didn't do the Suns any favours last week with some onfield stupidity that will see him missing for the next four games, an absence that a team like the Suns, lacking experienced players, can ill afford. Gold Coast need to establish a bit of pride and Melbourne needs to gain a bit of momentum.

Melbourne by 36

Fremantle V North Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday

The Dockers have won both their away games and were beaten at home by Geelong. Fremantle needs to account for weaker teams at Subiaco and while North almost beat the Eagles here in game one Freo should be too strong. It will be interesting to see whether a bye helps North recover from a Collingwood flogging and also helps them to travel to Subiaco (darned if I can call it Patterson stadium, I wasn't in Perth and don't even know why it was changed)twice in 4 weeks, a trip that is a killer once a year let alone twice a month! Harvs gave a few of his team mates a serve last week which didn't get good press and conversely the Dockers won the game against Adelaide last week without Sandilands who was injured early. They did it for Pav I reckon. It won't be easy for Freo but that's the tip.

Fremantle by 28

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[AFL-Review] ROUND 3

2011-04-10T05:28:00.001-07:00

AFL Review Round 3

Collingwood 15.12.102 defeated Carlton 11.8.74

The result was as expected by those that understand their footy and Carlton supporters will go away thinking their team did okay because they didn't get rolled by 10 goals. Margin aside the result was still the same and Collingwood did enough to win the game in the second quarter. Centrelines probably broke even but the second tier Collingwood players were far too good. Shaw, Blair and O'Brien. A home and away record crowd turned up, some 88,000 plus, to see the Pies do what they do best lately – win. Funnily enough the coaches had opposite feelings to the result. Mick said he was unhappy and Ratten said he was happy? Go figure. The Pies face Richmond next week and Carlton have a tough one against a vastly improved Essendon a game at which you can expect another big crowd.

Western Bulldogs 18.14.122 defeated Gold Coast Suns 7.9.51

A fairly clinical display by the Western Bulldogs and the margin was under 100 points. Ablett back to his best with a great game for the Suns, Barry Hall kicked 5 and Cross finished with just under 40 possessions for the Bulldogs. It was just another game under the belts of the young Suns' players. Moving on. Commentary team thought the Bulldogs are not as good a team as they were a couple of years ago. With games won against Brisbane and the Suns it's hard to say because they were belted by Essendon in week 1. Where to the Suns? Well, they are not in the competition to win the flag this year. They just need the games experience including how to keep their banner together before the team emerges from the race. The Suns meet Melbourne next week and the Bulldogs will enjoy a bye.

Fremantle 11.13.79 defeated Adelaide Crows 7.12.54

Tipsters might have to rethink their assessment of either Fremantle or Adelaide based on that result. Sandilands injured and a few other key players out and the Dockers still accounted for the Crows easily. Pavlich broke the Fremantle playing record with his 239^th game and some of their players really stood up in a game that not many gave them a chance of winning. Kepler Bradley, Ballantyne, Fyfe all contributed and Hill was in scintillating form. Adelaide beat the Hawks last week? How? They play the home derby against Port next week and Fremantle might be able to consolidate with a win over North at home.

Hawthorn 17.13.115 defeated Richmond 6.16.52

The game was virtually over at quarter time when the Hawks had a 6 goal lead. It didn't get better for the Tigers after that either and the final margin was just the 10 goals probably due to the wet weather. Pundits now have Hawthorn on the second rung for betting in the premiership stakes behind Collingwood. Richmond just doesn't have the players to really mix it with the top teams although a more spirited display will get them a better result. Buddy booted 5 and Roughead kicked 3 and when these two Hawthorn forwards can kick 8 goals between them they usually win. Considering the Tigers drew with St Kilda and Adelaide beat Hawthorn it sure makes tipping form hard to follow.

Sydney Swans 15.11.101 defeated West Coast 13.10.88

Sydney found some untapped energy in the last 10 minutes of the game to come from 2 goals down to kick the next 4 goals. The match was close all the way through which is the norm for these two teams but a home ground loss to a team of about equal standing is not a good result for the Eagles. Goodes and his experienced crew turned this game around in the last few minutes and there's nothing like experience to help you win the tight ones. Sydney will have to play even better to win their next game against Geelong and the Eagles fly to Hobart to be beaten by the Hawks.

Melbourne 12.10.82 defeated Brisbane 11.5.71

The Demons took a looonng time to get over the top of the Lions but were finally able to register their first win. Not a game you would put into your great games of footy DVD collection but for tipsters an expected result. Melbourne coach Bailey was not a happy camper stating that his team was just not applying itself regardless of the win. Liam Jurrah was a shining light up forward with 5 goals for the Dees and Luke Power kicked 4 for the Lions. Nice to have him back said Voss.

Geelong 17.20.122 defeated Port Adelaide 6.7.43

The Cats made a slow start as the youthful enthusiasm of Port players took it up to the Geelong team. But the Cats were able to grind the Power down and eventually run away with a percentage boosting victory which kind of made up for their last two close wins. Goal kickers were evenly spread with no Geelong player kicking more than 2. Kelley racked up 38 possessions and Selwood, back after concussion, had 34. There were 16 Cats who had 20 or more possessions which is an indication of their dominance. Boak and Pittard tried pretty hard for the Power. Geelong travel to Sydney and Port play their derby game against the Crows.

Essendon 21.10.136 defeated St Kilda 12.12.84

Good grief! There's something seriously wrong with both these teams which is going to make tipping hell. It seems the Bombers have come of age and based on that effort they could make the finals. The Saints are winless after 3 rounds! Last year's grand finalists – twice! Jobe Watson was Best On Ground with 33 possessions and 3 goals even though he was being tagged by Goddard, not a bad player himself at times. Reiwoldt was okay up front for the Saints until he smacked his head into the ground from a pack mark after which he did not contribute a lot, but, then again, neither did the rest of the team. Blockbuster next week for the Bombers against Carlton and I wouldn't be betting my mortgage payment on the Blues either in that game. Saints will be looking forward to their bye next week.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 3

2011-04-07T03:20:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 3

Collingwood V Carlton at the MCG Friday night

Both teams undefeated sitting 1 and 2 on the ladder. It's an AFL promoter's dream. Blockbuster!! Unfortunately the dream will turn into a nightmare for Carlton. In round 18 last year the Pies at one stage of that game were 12 goals ahead and went on, easing up, to win by 8 goals plus. What has changed since then? Swan and Judd, Pendlebury and Murphy, O'Brien and Gibbs. For every Carlton champion player there is an equivalent Collingwood player. So when you look at the next rung we can continue to name Collingwood players but not their equal Carlton player. Assuming the champs nullify each other in that they are as effective as each other then there seems to be more Magpies on that next level that will help them win this game. Depth they call it.

Collingwood by 30

Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast Suns at Etihad Saturday

The good news for the Suns is that they formed a team to join the AFL. Bad news is that they have to play 16 other teams and not a get a bye each week. This will be week two of an ongoing, hard initiation in season 1. A loss by less than 50 points will be a plus but they would have learnt a lot from last week. If some of the Gold Coast big names can contribute more then they might avoid a 100 point flogging.

Western Bulldogs by 72

Adelaide V Fremantle at AAMI Saturday

The Dockers let a great chance slip last week when they kicked poorly to lose to the Cats at home and meeting the Crows at home is not a good recovery game. They will struggle to win this but we can expect a close game. The injury list at Freo is looking a little ominous and as a team they cannot afford to lose too many of their front line players. Pavlich will become the highest game player for the Dockers this week and it will be a record hard to beat as he still has a few seasons left in him. Both teams have a good young list so it will be interesting to see how the two teams fare during the year. But it's Adelaide for me at home.

Adelaide by 10

Richmond V Hawthorn at the MCG Saturday night

Great effort by the Tigers last week to draw with the Saints. They should acquit themselves well again in this match and with Rioli out for the Hawks their chances have improved. However, reality says that Richmond is still not good enough to beat Hawthorn. The Tigers did alright without Reiwoldt as the spearhead after he was concussed early in the game and maybe Richmond get too Jack focused. It's an interesting argument and how does the coach react this week? I just can't see the Richmond backline stopping Buddy and Roughead enough times to win the game.

Hawthorn by 21

West Coast V Sydney at Subiaco

Another West Coast injury to one of their better players Beau Waters doesn't help their cause. Swans and the Eagles always put up a good scrap but can the Swans handle another close one? Can the Eagles? Will we get another draw? After a hard game last week and the travel west Sydney might struggle in the last quarter. Goodes, Bolton and O'Keefe were stand outs in their last gasp draw against the Bombers last week and it's the veterans at West Coast as well in Cox and Embley that have been playing well. The history of the two clubs indicates a close game.

West Coast by 14

Melbourne V Brisbane Lions at the MCG Sunday

When a cancer battler like Stynes gives the Demons a serve for their insipid second half effort last week you can bet there will be a reaction strong enough to make Melbourne try harder this week. Fortunately for them they play the Brisbane Lions so it's almost a guaranteed win. A bleak day last week for the Lions and it won't get a lot better after a day in Melbourne at the MCG.

Melbourne by 31

Geelong V Port Adelaide at Skilled on Sunday

It's almost impossible to give Port a chance to win this game so we won't and neither will the Cats. Geelong was supposed to be getting older and slower but they have 2 wins from 2 games and look okay. They will be there in September. Port is in a rebuild stage and an early phase of that as well. No hope to beat Geelong at Skilled where the Cats haven't lost since 2007 against…..well…it was Port Adelaide.

Geelong by 66

St Kilda V Essendon

Apparently the Saints are still depressed about their loss in the GF against Collingwood last year hence a lack of motivation. The loss of Lenny Hayes is not good either but the Saints should still be too strong for Essendon whose early season form faltered a little last week when they allowed the Swans to draw a game in which they had a 28 point lead. The Essendon pace might be a problem for the Saints but one would think that some tough games and all that experience will hold them in good stead to win their first game of the season.

Saint Kilda by 29

North Melbourne - bye

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[AFL-Review] Round 2

2011-04-03T06:52:00.000-07:00

AFL Review Round 2

St Kilda 13.17.95 Drew with Richmond 14.11.95

The Saints on fire in the first quarter with Gram and Fisher getting plenty of the ball. Deledio, Grigg and Crotchin best for Richmond. Jack Reiwoldt has been knocked out in the first quarter but they won't substitute him. Milne has kicked almost half the Saints score. The Saints 14 points up at the end of the quarter. The Tigers started the second with a quick goal so the margin is down to 8 points. It's a substitute confusion – Jack is not going to be substituted but Richmond seems to be doing okay without him. Gram has had 16 disposals 10 minutes into the 2^nd quarter. Morton snaps another for Richmond after a deliberate out of bounds call against the Saints so the margin is only 3. Jack has a major fallout with the Richmond medical staff because they won't let him back on the ground. The substitute has taken place!! Jack is out with concussion. Nick Reiwoldt kicks a goal after a lead and a mark. Margin is 8 points. The sub Helbig has kicked a loooong goal for the Tigers. Margin just 2 points. Baaalllll!! Free to Jake King. He kicks the goal and the Tigers have hit the front! Milne marks but shaves the post for a Saints' point. The ball is cleared to the other end and Martin, playing really well, kicks his second goal for the quarter, extending the Richmond lead to 9 points. Tap by McEvoy to Del Santo who snaps a point. McGuane hits Farren Ray high, gets reported and Ray's free kick from 30 metres goes through the middle for a goal. Armitage gets a handball from Milne and kicks a goal. The Saints are back in front. Good clearance and the Tigers get it up forward, Clarke of St Kilda drops a mark allowing Jake King to kick another goal for Richmond putting them back in front by 2 points. Another late goal to the Tigers gives them a half time lead of 7 points and a 7 goal quarter.

Second half start and McEvoy taps to Milne from a stoppage and he strolls in and kicks a goal. Oh no. Lenny Hayes looks like he has done a knee or ankle – real bad. In the meantime Vickery gets a chance for Richmond and kicks an answering goal. Lenny has a bad injury alright. The Saints have called the substitute straight away. Half way through the quarter and the Tigers are dominating. 10 inside 50's to 3 so far but they can't put the Saints away on the scoreboard. Saints make another run into the forward line, Milne bouncing the ball twice but kicks over the head of Reiwoldt and scores a point. McEvoy takes a set shot from 50 but it's another point. A non-decision by the umpires on a Richmond mark which wasn't paid to Morton allows the Saints to clear. Back into the Richmond goal, umpires miss a throw right in front of goal and the Saints clear again. They are under pressure. After 22 minutes both teams have kicked just one goal apiece. Ball is going backwards and forwards between half back lines. Into the Richmond half forward line and a big mark by Morton, he plays on and passes to Cotchin, 20 metres out and he misses. Almost on the siren McEvoy takes a mark for the Saints and slots it for a goal. It's a 3 point margin at the last break. Deledio has 21 touches to three quarter time and Grigg 20 for Richmond. Armitage, Gram and Del Santo all have over 20 disposals for the Saints who laid 30 tackles that quarter which certainly helped them keep the Tigers within reach. It has started raining during the break so scoring might be a bit harder in the last. Can the Tigers cause a huge upset? A quick clearance by the Saints and Milne just misses again for a point. Baaaalll! Tigers pinged for holding and Montagna takes the free from 30 out and he misses as well. Margin is down to a point. Big kick for goal by Richmond is not touched and goes through the big ones. Rebound from the Tiger forward line and a spilled Goddard mark drops into Reiwoldt's hand and he puts it through for a goal. Another point for the Saints after the bounce and the scores are level. Gram puts it long into the forward line, Goddard can't take it, scramble in the Saints' forward line, the Tigers clear, work it into their forward line, Ray tries to make the ball safe and Martin takes the fumbled ball and slots it through for a goal! Back into the Richmond goal square after the bounce, Saints clear to the half forward line, then up into their own forward line, the umpire calls deliberate rush through the points on McGuane and Reiwoldt has the free. He kicks truly. The scores are level again. Clearance goes back into the Saints' forward line, Milne breaks clear and kicks his fourth goal putting the Saints 6 points ahead. Back into the Richmond forward line, handball after handball and finally to Grigg from a standing start has kicked a goal. Scores are level again. Ball bounced, the Tigers push into their forward line again, handball comes to Edwards but his kick is touched on the line. A one point lead to the Tigers. Free kick to Richmond 60 out and the kick is marked by Grigg. Rain is getting heavier. Grigg misses the goal!!! 6 minutes left. The Saints clear it right to their forward line and Goddard kicks it low, the ball skids along the wet ground, heads toward goal and Blake races in and makes sure of it. The Saints get the lead. Richmond forces the ball forward, Nahas takes possession but in a hurry he kicks it out on the full. The Tigers push forward again but Morton gets Fisher in the kidneys with a stupid free and the Saints clear. Ball comes back, Fisher clears again. Richmond keeps pressing, they need a goal with 3 minutes of play left. A Richmond free to Astbury, a scramble in the goal square, ball up. Desperate play but finally Jackson for Richmond snaps an incredible goal and put the Tigers in front with 2 minutes left. After the bounce the ball is cleared by the Saints and Archer marks for St Kilda 40 metres out. He misses. 1 point the difference! Montagna gets possession after the kick out and passes to Milne. Can he kick his 5^th? Noooo, he's missed. The scores are level with 40 seconds left. Ball is out of bounds a few metres from the Saints' goal, scramble for the ball, time's up. It's a draw!!! Another draw at the G!! Incredible.

Collingwood 21.17.143 Defeated North Melbourne 7.14.56

North was totally outclassed and actually did worse than Port Power did the previous week against Collingwood. The result might put the Pies on top with percentage but let's see how big a margin Carlton can win by. Scott, North's coach, for some reason didn't tag Swan and Pendlebury and paid the penalty as these two players amassed 40 and 37 possessions respectively. Harvey played better this week but overall it would have been a disappointing result and effort by North. They have the bye next week.

West Coast 16.20.116 Defeated Port Adelaide 15.8.98

Commentators said last week that they thought Port Adelaide might be the worst team in the competition. After that result against the Eagles they might be right. The final margin flattered the Power and more accurate kicking by West Coast would have resulted in a big win. Veteran Eagle Andrew Embley is showing some champagne form early in the season and his 20 plus possessions and 4 goals, ably assisted by Shuey and Dean Cox helped West Coast beat Port at AAMi for the first time in 13 years! Port's problems were exacerbated with a bad knee injury to their captain Cassisi who will be sidelined for about 6 weeks. Daniel Kerr returned to the Eagles side after almost a year absent and eventually worked his way into the game. West Coast looks a little better after that win and will face Sydney next week at home. Port travel to Geelong and will have to work hard to avoid a thrashing.

Carlton 26.15.171 Defeated Gold Coast 7.10.52

This is not the start the new team of the AFL was hoping for. A 119 point thrashing seems to either indicate that they will not be competitive or that Carlton was in a zone for the night. Or maybe it was a bit of both. Not a lot can be said for the Suns. Carlton will have a better idea of just where they are this year when they meet Collingwood next Friday night. Chris Judd celebrated his 200^th game with 29 possessions and 2 goals and Murphy and Gibbs both had over 30 touches each. Garlett kicked 4 for the Blues along with Thornton who kicked 4. Daniel Harris and Rischitelli worked hard for their team but the Suns were outgunned across the ground. Karmichael Hunt did not debut well but it's early days. It doesn't get easier for Gold Coast who face the Bulldogs next week and I suspect another 100 point defeat.

Geelong 13.11.89 Defeated Fremantle 10.18.78

The game was tight right throughout and the Dockers had an untold number of chances to get ahead of the Cats in the last quarter but they just kept kicking points. For them to miss reasonably easy set shots in front of goal cost them the game. Bartel was all class during the night and kicked what was the deciding goal late in the last. Pavlich and Mundy were the best for the Dockers. Bradley is giving them a bit of a target up forward and Ballantyne works hard with pace as their small forward. To lose at home is a setback for Fremantle and they will be hard pressed to beat Adelaide next week at AAMI. Geelong has it a lot easier with Port Adelaide at Skilled.

Western Bulldogs 19.9.123 Defeated Brisbane 6.9.45

The Bulldogs showed that maybe last week was a glitch in their early season form although playing Brisbane is probably not a true indication of how good they might be. Teams travelling north of Sydney this year look like having easy games with the Lions and Suns really at rock bottom for competitiveness based on the results this week. Not a lot can be said for the Lions who were without Jonathon Brown for the first week of many after his face injury last week. The Bullies dominated in the centre with Cooney playing well alongside Griffen and Boyd. Second game player Tom Liberatore also made an impact and will be a great acquisition for the Bulldogs. It was surprising that Barry Hall could contribute only 3 goals and he was subbed off at three quarter time with what looked like a back problem. Voss is in for a long, hard season with the Lions while The Western Bulldogs showed what most pundits forecast for them at the season start. They have another percentage booster against the Suns next week before and Brisbane meet Melbourne at the MCG.

Sydney 14.14.98 Defeated Essendon 13.15.93

Almost the only time the Swans were ahead in that game was 25 minutes into the last quarter. A reality check for the Bombers who were tipped by most to continue their winning way and another heart stopping close one for Sydney. No wonder Roos stopped coaching, nerves would be shot to pieces. This was a real pressure game of footy particularly in the last 10 minutes when the scores were close and it was anybody's game. Goodes made up for a poor game last week against Melbourne and when he went into the centre Sydney looked a little better. Jobe Watson continued his great form winning a lot of the ball and driving the Bombers forward. At one stage of the game Essendon held a 28 point lead and the Swans showed a lot of courage to whittle that lead back and eventually run out winners. Sydney heads to Perth next week to play the West Coast in what will be a hard one to win and Essendon play St Kilda.

Hawthorn 16.26.122 Defeated Melbourne 12.5.77

Just looking at the number of scoring shots for each team tells the story of the game. Had Hawthorn kicked accurately the game was over at quarter time. Had the Hawks kicked accurately the Demons would have been embarrassed. It's hard to believe that Melbourne led 8.3 to 3.13 at half time as a result of goal front inaccuracy by the Hawks. But after the long break Hawthorn kicked 13 goals to the Demon's 4 in the second half sealing the game in the third quarter. Rioli turned it on for Hawthorn ably assisted by Suckling. Buddy managed only 2 goals for his team and Burgoyne kicked a handy 4. Tapscott was the best for the Dees. The Hawks face the Tigers next week and Melbourne should beast the Lions at the MCG.

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[AFL-Preview] Tipping Software Extraordinary

2011-03-31T22:21:00.000-07:00

Hi Everyone,

As some of you may know, for the last couple of years I have been working on some tipping software. The aim of it was to create a database that kept records and use that database to successfully tip the outcome of matches. Well I unleashed it in a work tipping comp last week and got 8 out of 8 and almost got the margin and that was from China!!

It works in two modes. You can just enter the teams playing and it will try to tip a result or you can enter all of the team players, the venue and the weather conditions and looking at past results and player stats it will try to successfully tip a result. Maybe an early call but it appears it is quite accurate.

I have created a web interface and I would like you guys to trial it. The implications for winning at SportsBet and other TAB outlets is very high. You can access the database through the web page below. Please provide feedback.

http://www.minesched.com/Aaron/Master_Tipping_DB.htm

[AFL-Preview] Round 2 Preview

2011-03-31T02:30:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 2

Last week: 6 from 8 (take a point for the draw).Your correspondent did not quite have the guts to tip the draw last week in the Melbourne versus Sydney game but did hint that a tied score was extremely likely. There were quite a few close games in the first round with 3 other matches being won by less than a goal. The big surprise for AFL followers and certainly for the Western Bulldogs was their demolition by the Bombers, a result that put Essendon on top of the ladder. AFL officials will love the look of the ladder after round 1 – Essendon, Collingwood and Carlton sitting in positions 1 – 3. What sort of a crowd can we expect at the Collingwood versus Carlton game next week? I attended last season and was amongst 80,000 other fans at that game. Then of course we will have the Anzac Day game between Essendon and Collingwood which attracts a big crowd anyway but with the Bombers performing well the AFL might be looking at crowd records. The new substitute rule is causing clubs a bit of a headache but at this stage it's hard to see a direct affect on the game although listening to the experts they seem to think it slowed the game down with less interchanges and also helped to keep better players on the ground longer. Hard to make that call from northern China and looking at replays didn't convince me…..yet. Technology is a wonderful thing when you are a long way from home and if I can drink a beer, listen to the games live and stream some replays it's almost the same as being in your lounge or garage in Australia – almost. Surreal but good!! The temperature here in the Heilongjiang province has rocketed in the past week and we are experiencing daily highs of about 12 and night minimums of -1 to 0, very temperate. Bicycles, left in building corners and frozen into place up to the middle of their wheels over winter, have thawed out, been commandeered and we now have streets just full of Chinese bicyclists adding to the total confusion and indescribable stupidity of the normal Chinese traffic. With the change in the weather we now have fruit and vegetable vendors selling their produce from their hand carts on street corners and with a national public holiday on Tuesday, Tomb Sweeping Day, all other available sidewalk space is occupied by the ever present Chinese entrepreneur selling 'paper' money for people to buy and burn on those same street corners at night after the vendors have gone home. Chaotic is an apt description, busy is another.

Back to the footy. There are a few difficult games to pick from in round 2 and for the tipster it might get tricky to select a team to win two in a row after their first win was a last gasp effort. In the case of Essendon……well you wouldn't tip them last year against the Swans so what chance do you give them this week after their thrashing of the Bulldogs? Target this week is 5 correct, anything above that is a bonus. Good luck.

St Kilda V Richmond at the MCG Friday Night

The Saints let one slip last week against much better opposition than they will have in this game. The Tigers showed spirit against Carlton but the Saints will record their first win of the season and Richmond will have a zip – 2 start to 2011. The Reiwoldt cousins line up at opposite ends of the ground but Jack might have a harder task to kick 5 or 6 against a tighter Saints defence. The Tigers have a younger, inexperienced centreline up against the St Kilda champs Hayes and Del Santo which will help the Saints gather more inside 50's. Tiger coach Hardwicke reckons Richmond is a chance. I reckon he's full of it.

St Kilda by 38

North Melbourne V Collingwood at Etihad Saturday Afternoon

North has always troubled the Pies and teams this year will push themselves against last year's premiers. Some will win, most will lose. Try as they might North cannot win this game and the margin might be similar to last week when Collingwood played Port. Fresh from their NAB cup win the Pies showed their fans a few gears in last week's game against Port. Frustrating to see a 54 point lead whittled away as Collingwood found their lower gears but as expected, when it counted, they were able to 'power' away, so to speak. North Melbourne is on about the same skill level as the Power, maybe a little better, so the Pies need to be aware that a complete slack off will, if not lose them the game, make it uncomfortably close. If Brent Harvey has another quiet day and the Collingwood runners move unchecked, expect a blowout in the score line.

Collingwood by 61

Port Adelaide V West Coast at AAMI Saturday afternoon

The sides are evenly matched but the loss of LeCras and Masten to long term injuries, two of West Coast's better players, is a bad blow for the Eagles. On Port's side of the injury ledger they lost Jay Schultz with a knee injury. Playing the Power at AAMI doesn't help West Coast and their plan to put two wins in a row together. An unusual statistic between these two teams is that West Coast have not beaten the Power at this ground since 1998 when the Eagles had a far better side than what they will field in this game!! Expect a close game but the home side should win.

Port Adelaide by 13

Gold Coast V Carlton at the Gabba Saturday Night

This is the historic first match for the Gold Coast team. They have recruited some star players but will find this pretty tough against the Blues with Judd, Murphy, Scotland and Gibbs in reasonable early season form. Judd is playing his 200^th. How will Karmichael Hunt go in his first real game of AFL? How will Ablett settle into his new team? Hard to tip the Suns first up unless they were playing West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond or the Power. It will be interesting to see just where this new team is relative to the others.

Carlton by 42

Fremantle V Geelong at Subiaco Saturday Night

The Dockers got out of jail last week with a last gasp win over the Lions. Geelong also did the same against the Saints and the Cats know this trip to the west is usually filled with trouble. Old heads might not prevail when fitness will be the key in the hot weather. Fremantle beat Geelong last time at Subiaco and it might be a repeat this round. If Chapman returns for the Cats it will be his 200^th game. The biggest problem Fremantle has is that they don't have classy on-ballers who can capitalise on the dominance of Sandilands in the ruck. Then again the loss of the classiest Cat on-baller, Gary Ablett, is still a negative that Geelong needs to overcome. It should be another close game for these teams who both won by less than a kick last week.

Fremantle by 10

Western Bulldogs V Brisbane at Etihad Sunday

The Bulldogs have a lot to prove after last week's debacle against Essendon and fortunately they meet a Brown-less Brisbane who lost against Freo last week in the dying seconds. We have no idea why the Western Bulldogs played like that last week but expect a different result and approach this week. They could kick the sweep. Will Rocket Eade make wholesale changes or was that pathetic effort against the Bombers just 'one of those games'? Brisbane's injury problems also include the lost of Staker for a whole season with a knee reconstruction. If the Bullies had a couple of guys that didn't quite make last week's team then perhaps we can expect them to be included for this match. Barry Hall might be a bit too much for the Lions' back men to stop as well.

Western Bulldogs by 55

Sydney V Essendon at ANZ Stadium Sunday

The Bombers pulverised the Bulldogs last week and based on that form they are almost a sure thing against the Sydney Swans in this match. Don't underestimate the Swans though, they have the ability to win this but it seems that Essendon is on a bit of a roll in 2011 even though they lost the NAB cup final. Interestingly, the last time they met in round 11 last year the Swans scraped home by 9 points and the Bombers look a lot better this season. Adam Goodes had a quiet game last week so he has to contribute more in this match. The game will be a lot closer than most think and the tip is for an upset, just what the Bombers need for a reality check.

Sydney by 17

Hawthorn V Melbourne at the MCG Sunday

Hawthorn started last week against the Crows in great form. Melbourne was a little slow out of the blocks against the Swans but was full of running at the end of the game and was unlucky to draw. Expect the overall class of the Hawks to help them win a tight one at the 'G'. Their captain Luke Hodge may be included this week but problems with the achilles need to be 100% clear before a player is included in the team. Buddy kicked 2.6 last week so he needs to lift his accuracy. Hard to make a case for the Demons so I won't.

Hawthorn by 18

Adelaide Bye

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[AFL-Review] AFL Round 1 2011

2011-03-27T05:54:00.000-07:00

AFL Round 1 Review

Carlton 14.20.104 Defeated Richmond 13.6.84

The game was in the balance after an ordinary 3^rd quarter by the Blues but sanity prevailed and some great leadership by Judd in the final quarter saw Carlton scrape home. Football isn't a game that can be analysed by statistics because at three quarter time Carlton had dominated the game up to that stage with possessions and inside 50's was 50 to 28 in their favour and they were down by 14 points. Go figure. Players seemed pretty tired in the last quarter but not sure whether that was due to the new substitute rule or the fact that it was the first 'real' game of the season. The Blues will win against the new Gold Coast team next week and Richmond will find it even harder against the Saints but the Tiger fans would be happy with that effort against Carlton.

Geelong 6.12.48 Defeated St Kilda 6.11.47

The Cats had kicked only 1 goal up to half way through the 3^rd quarter so it remains a puzzle as to how they won the game. Older heads prevailed for Geelong and when the pressure was on they responded. A dozen goals in a game of football tells you how tight the game was with backlines dominating. Bartel was the best for the Cats and Lenny Hayes ditto for the Saints. Goals were hard to come by so power forwards Reiwoldt and Mooney didn't contribute greatly to their respective team's score although Saint Nick played his usual hard at the ball game but found himself competing against 3 opposition players each time he went for a mark. The Cats travel to Perth next week to take on Freo and the Saints meet the improving Tigers at the MCG. St Kilda and Geelong will figure in the finals action in September.

Collingwood 24.11.155 Defeated Port Adelaide 12.8.80

The result was expected but in the 3^rd quarter Power got to within 16 points of the Magpies after trailing by 54 midway through the second quarter! The Pies simply put the foot on the gas and it was rather one sided from the 20 minute mark of the 3^rd quarter as they piled on 10 of the next 11 goals. Collingwood starts at the top end of the ladder and the Power at the bottom end after that first round scoreline showing a 75 point margin. Might be how it pans out at season end for the two teams. The usual players for Collingwood dominated such as Pendlebury and Swan but the veteran Ben Johnson might have done enough to take the best on ground. Port's game plan was not helped with a bad knee injury to Jay Schultz in the 2^nd quarter and he was stretchered off. Thomas from Port, not Collingwood, played a great game for them with 27 possessions and Westhoff out played the returning Collingwood prodigal son Tarrant to kick 4 goals for the Power. Port fans might see some hope for the side considering they ran down a 58 point deficit to get within 16 but that effort left little in their tank when the Pies applied the pressure again. Port plays West Coast at AAMi next week and Collingwood meets North Melbourne.

Adelaide 16.9.105 Defeated Hawthorn 12.13.85

A great game of football in the second half and the Crows just kept plugging away and seemed to wear the Hawks down. Rioli was at times brilliant but the loss of Sewell for Hawthorn was a telling blow. The final score was not a real indication of how close the game was. Had the Hawks kicked straight early it might have been too great a deficit for the Crows to make up. In the end 25 scoring shots apiece and a 20 point victory to Adelaide tells a story. Mitchell and Burgoyne played well for the Hawks and Dangerfield and Stevens were prominent for the Crows. Hawthorn should get their season back on track against Melbourne next week and Adelaide has the bye.

Fremantle 13.16 94 Defeated Brisbane 14.8.92

Hard to read anything into this result as the game was full of errors but nevertheless a close contest. Brown copped a bad facial injury and the Dockers should have capitalised more on his absence. These are the games that Freo will need to win to equal last year's effort and with no substitutes available for Brisbane for much of the last quarter the Dockers were able to snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Pavlich and Sandilands played well for the Dockers and the Lions veteran Simon Black seemed to be doing it on his own at times. Next week might be a good indication of where the Dockers are when they play Geelong at home. Brisbane plays the Western Bulldogs who were thrashed by Essendon.

Essendon 16.17.113 Defeated the Bulldogs 8.10.58

This defeat for the Bulldogs is embarrassing. This win for the Bombers is an inspirational start to the season. Maybe tipsters should take the opportunity to review ladder positions they forecast prior to round 1. If Essendon play like that and can win 12 games they will finish in the 8. The Bulldogs have been touted as top two contenders? Hmmmm. The win was big enough to see Essendon sitting on top of the ladder at the end of round 1 but those lofty heights can cause severe nosebleed if you are not used to the altitude. It was strange listening to the commentary team which included Matthew Knights the former Bomber coach. Wonder what he thought about the win….really!! The return of Hille to Essendon is a huge plus and he dominated around the ground in this game and also took the mark of the day according to the commentators. Jobe Watson continues to be the main ballgetter for the Dons and he was ably assisted by Brett Stanton. Not so many outstanding players for a very miserable Bulldog performance. Rocket Rod will have to lift his team and their confidence next week against Brisbane while Essendon could win two in a row when they meet Sydney.

Melbourne 11.18.84 Drew with Sydney 11.18.84

What can you say? Both teams slugging it out in the last quarter and no doubt players very tired when the siren sounded with the scores locked on 84 points each. It was poor kicking for goal by both sides. Some tipping comps give you a point for the draw, others zip. Trengrove, Grimes, Maloney and Davey were the best for the Dees and for the Swans O'Keefe, Jack and McVeigh played well. Goodes was well down on his normal game. Splitting the points is better than getting zero but no doubt leaves a bad taste in the mouths of players. Sydney meets a resurgent Essendon next week and the Dees face the Hawks.

West Coast 13.14.92 Defeated North Melbourne 13.10.88

The game was, as expected, even all day. Each time West Coast kicked ahead by 2 or 3 goals North would get back into the game and at one stage in the final quarter they even led by a couple of points. Not a memorable game skills wise, 2 bad injuries for West Coast, but finally a win on the board for them to start the season. Not sure how bad the injury is to LeCras but he is the main goalkicker for the Eagles and he will be sorely missed. Masten seems to have done a knee but the extent of the injury is unknown. These losses will not help West Coast improve on last year's result. Veterans Cox and Embley played well for West Coast. North's answer to Judd, Andrew Swallow, was amongst their best but strangely enough Brent Harvey had a quiet day and was well held. The Eagles are a chance against Port next week but North have no hope against Collingwood.

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[AFL-Preview] Fwd: AFL Season 2011 Round 1

2011-03-23T06:38:00.000-07:00

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: John Loffler <bizloff@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, Mar 23, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Subject: AFL Season 2011 Round 1
To: AFL Preview List <afl-preview@lists.com.au>

2011 SEASON

AFL PREVIEW ROUND 1

At last the 2011 season is upon us. As a Collingwood supporter it has taken this correspondent a great deal of self control not to have sent you all a few exclamations of joy regarding the wonderful result experienced by thousands of football lovers at the 2 Grand Finals last year. And the pleasure is actually heightened for Magpie supporters when they know that those 'other' supporters that intensely dislike Collingwood have to suffer the Pies' win in furious silence! I was unable to get tickets for the drawn Grand Final but had an exciting time at a local hotel a couple of torpedo punts' distance from the MCG and I was amongst lots of Pies supporters as we suffered the highs and lows of a great game of football. I scored a ticket to the Grand Final replay and alongside one son (the other relinquished his ticket due to work commitments hence my good fortune) watched a wicked game of football the result of which I knew but refused to admit to myself half way through the second quarter. Another close game like the previous week would have seen me in a hospital coronary unit for sure. The real beauty of the Collingwood win is that they have a team good enough to do it twice unless Mick pulls a West Coast Eagles trick and misses a year!!

The previews and reviews this season are coming to you from northern China, a place so cold that the tears brought to your eyes by a biting wind are being frozen to your cheeks as they fall helping to form a sort of face ice sculpture that looks like a botox fill gone awfully wrong!! I arrived in Beijing leaving a temperature of over 30 Celsius to a -10C!! Dressed in my short-sleeved shirt and a pair of jeans the cold nearly killed me and added to that temperature shock was the fact that the plane landed at a remote part of the airport so we had to disembark and get a bus to the terminal while my body suffered cold never experienced before. Stayed just the one day in Beijing where I pulled all my best winter gear from the suitcase for the trip further north to my destination near the Inner Mongolian border and located further north than Vladivostok to be greeted by a minus 24!! Last season the reviews came from Norseman (WA desert) and Wangaratta in northern Victoria where I thought (stupidly in hindsight) the winter temperature was rather cold.

But being an AFL fan in China presents you with other problems such as the great firewall of China, not the Great Wall. Filtered information and blocked websites can frustrate you until you find the way around it all.

Enough about my location, let's talk footy!

As a tipping information preview over the years we have steered away from presenting you with columns of stats and player injuries and lots of other info you can get from a multitude of newspapers around the country as well as a million websites. What we will try to assist you with is that tipping competition you are in where bragging rights for the winner holds as much pride for the individual as does winning the premiership by the AFL team!! Not quite but in your fishpond who cares?

The great stories that came to light during the AFL off season started with the indecent assault allegations against two Collingwood players a day after their GF win. That went nowhere. Then we had the first Fevola incident which also went nowhere. The second incident unfortunately did go badly for Fev but his fans can catch him at a Casey Scorpions game in the VFL where he will kick 122 goals this year. The St Kilda stuff was not good for the club and the aftermath with Ricky Nixon was really getting distasteful. Me? I'm still scratching my head about just who the young lady in question is and the agenda but I did miss a bit while travelling.

Lots of player changes, none bigger than the Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast Suns and the coaching switch of Bomber Thompson to Essendon after so many heated denials. Maybe Essendon really wants a burnt out assistant coach to help James, who knows? Seems to be working okay so far.

Our target this year is to score around the 68% - 75% accuracy on tipping. That will win you the money, the glory, the recognition. I am not sure just how many games are being played because in rounds 4, 5 and 6 there are 3 teams having byes. Is it 176 games? Your tipping target is to get a score of between 120 and 132 correct from that 176. Past years has seen a score of around 121 just about do the trick. Good luck for 2011.

Carlton V Richmond at the MCG Thursday Night

There are a couple of things we can be sure about with regard to these two teams. Richmond will not make the finals this year and Carlton will not win 2 premierships in the next 5 years. Another thing you can be sure about – Carlton will win this game. The Blues have slaughtered the Tigers in the last 2 meetings and not a lot has changed in either team to make a tipster think there will be an upset. A couple of key players out for Carlton and Foley back for Richmond but no Cousins. Richmond is in for another tough year and I expect the Blues to remain at about the same level.

Carlton by 42

Geelong V St Kilda at the MCG Friday Night

Grand Final and finals combatants in past years so it will be interesting to see how the Cats survive the Ablett departure and how the Saints survive the sensationalism of a bad pre-season press and, er, um, some over-exposure. If Ling and Chapman don't play for the Cats and Mooney remains doubtful Geelong might find this a bit hard first up facing a vengeful Saints team. Kozi needs to stand up at full forward for the Saints and not leave all the work to Reiwoldt. The Saints look as good as last year, the Cats need to sharpen their claws. Tipsters might like to try a bet each way on this if you're in more than one comp.

St Kilda by 17

Collingwood V Port Adelaide at Etihad Saturday afternoon.

The Pies have 60,000 members and the game is being held at a venue that holds 50,000! That's an interesting arrangement. The Magpies should be too good for an improving Power who must have drawn the short straw to get this game as their season opener. On top of that the AFL have seen fit to make Collingwood fans wait 3 weeks before they can raise the glorious 2010 flag at the MCG when they play Carlton. At least then the crowd will be 80,000 plus. While the NAB cup is no indicator of form in the 1^st round Port did get bundled out while Collingwood went on to win the trophy. Read what you will into those results. It will get a bit boring if the Pies win the 2011 GF as well don't you think? Not another cup!!! A Port win here would be a real upset.

Collingwood by 51

Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Saturday Night

Both these teams promised a lot in 2010 but neither delivered. The Hawks might rest Hodge until next week and the Crows defence is no longer their Bockline. When in doubt the home team looks a good bet. The Hawks can win the game without Hodge but the Crow backline will have their hands full with Buddy, Roughead and Rioli. Last season Hawthorn played their finals game against Collingwood in round 21 and didn't show a lot after that so they will be aware that a good start to the season, especially against Craig's Adelaide mob, is paramount. Expect a close game.

Adelaide by 16

Brisbane V Fremantle at the Gabba Saturday Night

This is the hardest game of the opening round from which to pick a winner. When in doubt? Brisbane is in for a hard season and needs to capitalise on pre-season injuries at Fremantle but the Dockers still have more depth and should start their season with a win. Jonathon Brown has not kicked a ball in anger yet this year so he might be a bit underdone and if they put McFarlane on Brown then the Dockers will get some run from half back. Pavlich and Sandilands remain the keys for Freo and expect Hill to start the year well. For tipsters, again a bit each way but based on last year's form the Dockers should win even if it's an away game for them.

Fremantle by 11

Essendon V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Sunday afternoon

The Bombers look a lot better so far this season under the coaching of James Hird. The real stuff starts with this match but all that improvement will not be enough to knock the Bulldogs off their game. A lot was expected of the Bulldogs last year and they just didn't have real match winners in the side when it counted. Barry Hall will be hard to stop but the team has a lot of other options when they go forward. Based on last season you could not expect the Bombers to win this so don't tip them.

Western Bulldogs by 33

Melbourne V Sydney at the MCG Sunday afternoon

It's time the Demons made a bold start to the season to give their supporters some hope. Their high draft picks of previous years need to play some good footy. Sydney will be under a new coach after the departure of Roos so there is a lot to prove for both teams. Maybe we will have a draw in the first round but remember the Demons gave the Swans a real hiding the last time they met and how much has changed in the personnel of both sides since then? Captain Kirk and Roos gone for Sydney and a couple of Melbourne boys jumped ship – or were pushed. My tip is the Demons but it might be a close one.

Melbourne by 6

West Coast Eagles V North Melbourne

The Eagles and North will both struggle to make the 8 this year and in West Coast's favour is that the game is being played at home. That might be just enough advantage to get them over the line. Neither team really has the cattle to beat the top eight contenders but there seems to be a group of about 9 teams that are all on about par and will give us some close games during the year as well as cause the occasional upset. I just don't know where the Eagles are heading. They have a few good players and with Cox in the ruck they should win a lot more ball but they also have some average footballers who badly need to improve their basic skills which caused an inexcusable amount of turnovers last year. Pretty much the same for North with some good young players in amongst the more experienced but North will still be an average team this year. Expect the game to go down to the wire.

West Coast by 19

Gold Coast Suns – bye.

A definite win here for the new team.

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[AFL-Preview] NAB Cup Grand Final

2011-03-10T12:20:00.000-08:00

NAB Cup Grand Final

Hello readers and AFL lovers (assuming you are not one and the same). We have reached the start of the 2011 season and tonight is the final of the NAB cup. It has been the practice of this establishment to totally ignore the NAB cup and for good reason. Winners of this prestigious award don't usually do so well during the normal season and let's use Carlton as the prime example.

In this case, we have two combatants that are traditional rivals, one team being the ultimate football machine of 2010, Collingwood, while the other team, Essendon, has not had the best of times of late. The make- up of the teams is usually interesting in NAB cup matches as coaches give their new players a taste of the big time, they experiment with plays and generally try to keep a low profile about what they expect as the result.
The Magpies have started the season strongly, have recruited well and find themselves in the unusual position of playing in an NAB cup final. Essendon has had a change of coaches after the tawdry dismissal of Matty Knights at season's end in 2010. But oh, what a change there has been in their playing fortunes with the recruitment of favourite sons James Hird and the stressed out and tired Mark Thompson from Geelong. When we chat about the footy while parked around the water cooler most of us would say that sacking the coach never fixes the problem when you have average players. And in most cases that is true but it seems that the arrival of Hird and Bomber Thompson has lifted the performance of Essendon players to a level not seen in recent years under Matthew Knights. While it's true that coaches place little credibility on the NAB cup game results it is also true that those in charge of the finances at the AFL clubs don't mind an additional few hundred thousand dollars being banked pre-season. So to the game.

It will be a sell out because there are 60,000 Magpie members and 40,000 Essendon members. Essendon members and supporters will be there to see a new, invigorated and challenging team for 2011 and the Magpie members and supporters will be there just to watch the Pies thrash the Bombers as usual. A repeat of the 1990 Grand Final is on the cards.

The Collingwood interchange bench which includes Davis, Blair, Sidebottom, Beams and Johnson is good enough to be picked in any team as their star players. Didak returns from holidays and for the Bombers Hille returns after that knee injury early last year. Dustin Fletcher has asked that his pension card be put on hold another year and he will line up against Travis Cloke and although that might be a good tussle the sheer weight of numbers of Collingwood players coming forward will swamp the Bomber backs. Missing for the Pies will be their captain Maxwell who was cleaned up by an Eagles player in Perth last weekend, possibly the only positive that West Coast can take from that game. Magpie fans will be watching new recruit Andrew Krakaouer with great interest and it is hoped he will fit into this premiership team beautifully.

First quarter will be hectic, fast paced and expect the Pies to be seriously challenged. Collingwood to draw away in the second quarter. The Bombers have really played above themselves in this pre-season competition and the pressure and sustained effort might start to tell in the third. Collingwood to have a big break by the end of the third. Cancel the last quarter for lack of interest because nobody wants their star players to get injured and Essendon will not make up a 7 goal deficit.

Final score Collingwood 118 to Essendon 71.

Hopefully this game is the opener to a great 2011 season and I look forward to providing you with previews and reviews that entertain. Like most things Australian, this column has seen fit to sell out to Chinese interests, as your correspondent is currently working in Daqing, north-west China. It's the way of the world folks.

See you all again in a fortnight for the real thing!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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[AFL-Review] Round 22

2010-08-29T03:53:00.000-07:00

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AFL Review Rd 22

Fremantle 13.15.93 Defeated Carlton 13.9.87

The Blues led at the end of the 1^st quarter but Freo outran them over the next 3. The players the Dockers rested the week before all played big parts in the victory. Very close finish and the Fremantle win means they host the Hawks at home and Carlton plays away in Sydney. Of all the teams left in the bottom 4 Hawthorn would be the least preferred for Freo to play. When I first arrived in Tassie I had never seen so many personalised number plates supporting the Dockers until I realised they had a whole series of normal plates starting with FD! Pav and Mundy played well for the Dockers and they really appreciated the return of Sandilands who dominated the ruck and clearances. Judd had 30 possessions but McPhee did a reasonable job on him. Murphy, Gibbs and Simpson played well for the Blues but they will be up against it playing the Swans at home next week as will Freo playing Hawthorn at Subiaco. Other teams in the top 4 will be barracking for the Dockers.

Geelong 16.16.112 Defeated West Coast

It took half a game for the Cats to get going and then Ablett got loose to kick 5 goals and rack up 33 possessions. West Coast did okay to keep the margin to less than 50 points. Kelly, Milburn and Chapman also played well for the Cats and even Cam Mooney kicked 4 goals in preparation for the finals. Wilson kicked 3 for the Eagles but the side was really outclassed in the second half and West Coast will hope that next season they are not so badly affected by injuries to key players. The Cats go into next week’s game against St Kilda with a win and bit more confidence gained after their loss to Collingwood a few weeks ago.

Hawthorn 15.8.98 Defeated Collingwood 13.17.95

The result was a bit of an upset as the Hawks ended a 9 game winning streak by Collingwood when they kicked the last 4 goals of the game. The inaccuracy by the Magpies in front of goal remains a problem. As a reward for their great win Hawthorn gets to fly to Perth to play the Dockers. Josh Fraser finally got to play his 200^th game but it was not a memorable return. The Pies could not tie up the game when they were 19 points up half way through the last quarter and the efforts of Reid and Brown in the back line might be a cause for concern in the finals. Franklin kicked 6 for the Hawks and he was the main goal kicker. Beams had the chance to win the match for the Pies with a free kick in the last 10 seconds of the game but he missed. Alas, a common tale for Collingwood when kicking from set shots. The third quarter was a ripper with 12 goals kicked. Pies fans will hope they don’t meet Hawthorn in any of the finals.

Adelaide 9.11.65 Defeated St Kilda 5.7.37

This result was definitely an upset even though nothing really hinged on the game. The Crows continued their good form against the top teams after going down by only 3 points to Collingwood the week before. They smothered the Saints and came away in the last quarter for a very good win. Mad Monday for the Crows – a date with the Cats for St Kilda. It seems that the emotion of all those great Adelaide players retiring did help the team. The Saints will need to regroup for next week’s match against the Cats. Walker for Adelaide was the leading goal kicker in the game. The usual crew of Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna and Goddard for the Saints played well but they were not helped by a dysfunctional forward line with Kosi and Reiwoldt both down.

Western Bulldogs 17.5.107 Defeated Essendon 11.12.78

At times it looked like the Bulldogs were going to run away with the game but the Bombers hung in to go down by just 29 points. That reasonable showing by Essendon did not save Matthew Knights who was given his marching orders by the club today. Matt is unemployed and the Bulldogs face the Pies next week. Grant kicked 6 goals for the Western Bulldogs and Barry Hall kicked 4 which was not enough to steal the Coleman medal from Richmond’s Jack Reiwoldt. Jetta picked up 31 possessions for the Bombers and Cross and Murphy were both good for the Bullies. Okay, so who coaches Essendon next year? Does Hird come back out of the woodwork and re-nominate? Who is available? Choco Williams? He’s still tired after his recent finish at Port Adelaide. Bring Sheeds back. Anyway, whatever the supporters want the board will move to make it happen. Where does this leave Matty Knights’ career as a coach? He’s still under 40 years old. Mooroopna reserves in the Shepparton league maybe?

Sydney 16.10.106 Defeated Brisbane 10.8.68

The game was close up to half time then Sydney showed just how much better they were than the Lions by kicking 10 goals to 4 in the second half. Kieran Jack continues sensational form and he will finish with a few Brownlow votes I’m sure. Dennis-Lane led the Sydney goal scorers again. Brennan and Staker played well for the Lions and Malceski was back to good form alongside Jack for the Swans. Rumour has it that Brennan and Rischetelli might move from the Lions to the Gold Coast team and of course the whole Brisbane Lions team football department is under review. The Swans will need to be at their best to beat Carlton next week. Don’t think they will get it as easy as they did a few weeks ago.

Port Adelaide 18.14.122 Defeated Richmond 16.16.112

What a great game of football. Port kicked 10 goals to 2 in the second quarter and it looked like the Power by a huge margin but the Tigers found some inspiration in the second half and cut a 53 point half time deficit to just 3 points half way through the final quarter. Port steadied to win the game. Farewell to Cuz and congrats Matthew Primus as the new coach of Port. Stewart kicked 4 for Port and Boak kicked 3 as did Morton and King for the Tigers. Richmond fans really took to Cousins who made a reasonable contribution to the game considering he was carrying a hamstring strain. Deledio and Morton also played well for the Tigers and Boak and Brogan were Port’s best. Port finished with 10 wins and it was just a bad patch in the early part of the season that might have cost them a place in the finals. It will be a surprise if Primus does not get the coaching job for Port, unless of course he is approached by Essendon.

North Melbourne 17.11.113 Defeated Melbourne 15.13.103

It was great watching two teams of young players going hell for leather at the ball. The game was played at cracking pace and at one stage in the last quarter it looked like Melbourne had North done. But like they did with the Eagles last week North did enough at the end to win. Only percentage kept them out of finals. It looks good for both sides next season and it was only percentage, but a lot of it, that kept North out of the finals this year. Don’t have a lot of stats on the game but Jurrah and Green kicked 5 each for the Dees and Jones, in his last game for North, booted 3 as did that Harvey guy. Scully has made a grab for the NAB rising star award with another strong game for Melbourne and of course their captain McDonald played his last game in a weekend of retirements. Let’s not forget umpire McBurney who also retired after about 1000 games umpiring in the AFL. He was certainly a character. Ask James Hird.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 22 - End of Season

2010-08-26T05:18:00.000-07:00

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AFL Preview Round 22

Well here we are dear tipsters. The end of another season. This is it. The final preview. It has been a difficult season and most competition winners are well down on their final totals from previous seasons. Although this is not a good time to remind you – I told you so. Those middle range teams played with such inconsistent form from one week to another that it was almost impossible to pick good scores of 6 and above. Even looking at the experts who tip in the newspapers it was only a week ago that the majority broke 100 points. I blame myself for the previews that were sometimes written under duress and with not enough ‘inside’ information to enable you to tip with confidence. Last night I was aboard the Spirit of Tasmania on a secret mission to confirm the difference between those of us on the mainland compared to Tasmanians. I was under instructions to carry out my observations surreptitiously and without causing undue alarm. I was able to confirm that to live in Tassie you need two heads! Why? Because the scenery here is so spectacular you need 2 heads with 2 sets of eyes to be able to see it all! Okay, okay. Beautiful countryside here.

I watched the Ben Cousins special last night and can only hope that there is something more revealing in episode 2 that will make me agree with all the hyperbola that has accompanied the proposed screening of this program’. The guy is articulate, good looking, great physique and a very good footballer. Why would you take drugs? I have only one question: How did he get away with not being detected for so many years?

On the subject of Football. Yes the same teams finished in the top 4 as last year and they seem to be at different levels of readiness for the finals. The grand final will be played between either St Kilda against Collingwood, St Kilda against Geelong, Geelong against Collingwood. But as they say the finals is like a whole new season and all 8 teams get the opportunity to have a crack.

Trust you all enjoyed the previews, as unhelpful as they were AND the reviews this season. May the best team win and that would be? Go Pies.

Fremantle V Carlton at Subiaco Friday Night

Well the Dockers will make the finals but due to injuries they are just a shadow of their early season self. This is a must win game for both teams to determine who plays where and who plays who. It’s so hard to pick Freo after last week but what the heck. The Dockers have made 10 changes to the team from last week but that was expected after a 116 point defeat! There has been a bit of argie bargie between the coaches as well with Ratten finally admitting that he might have done the same thing as Harvey given similar circumstances. The early glory of the Fremantle story has faded a bit as the season progressed and the Docker injuries really started to bite but with the team they have picked and with their record against the Blues, plus the fact that the game is in Perth may be just enough for them to win the game.

Fremantle by 11

Geelong V West Coast at Skilled on Saturday

This match could get ugly for West Coast. Not as bad as Freo last week against the Hawks but the margin will be in that range unless the Cats take it easy. Eagles players and coaches put their reputation on the line before mad Monday. Not a lot can be said about this game. The Pods copped his 2 weeks as forecast and Hunt surprisingly got a week as well but these exclusions didn’t really faze the Cats who replaced these two with two others from their bottomless pit of players.

Geelong by 100

Hawthorn V Collingwood at the MCG Saturday

This will give Hawthorn supporters a better idea of where their team sits in the big picture of a chance in the finals. The Pies will want to forget last week and Hawthorn is playing a better team than last week. Hawks might want this more but tipsters will stick with class. Speaking of class both teams lost their best left footers in Hodge for the Hawks and Didak for Collingwood. The Pies will want to go into the finals on a winning note and their kicking for goal is starting to give the fans the yips as well. Should be a good game.

Collingwood by 22

Adelaide V St Kilda at AAMI Saturday

The Crows will give a good account of themselves in a game that will see an emotional pre-match send off for some real stars – McLeod, Goodwin, Burton, Edwards and Hentschel. But all that emotion won’t help them beat the Saints. Kosi is hitting form and captain Nick is also looking rather formidable. Neither team has a lot to play for so maybe the closeness of the scores will provide the spectators with a bit of intensity.

St Kilda by 33

Western Bulldogs V Essendon at Etihad Saturday night

The Bombers cannot win this game even with a few outs for the Bullies with injuries. Knights will stay at Essendon. The Bombers just need some better players and those with injuries to come back next year. Coaches should not be picked by the supporters. Barry Hall to kick 7. Essendon has successfully res-signed a few of their players and that might provide a settling affect but tipsters will be looking for a complete form reversal to help them pick the Bombers to win. The question being asked now is just how far the Western Bulldogs can go this year with the injuries and form loss. They will play Collingwood in the first semi in two weeks’ time and will need to improve significantly.

Western Bulldogs by 44

Brisbane Lions V Sydney at the Gabba Saturday night

A feast of footy this Saturday with 5 games. Brisbane has found a bit of form but nowhere near as good as that of the Sydney Swans who are back to early season form and should win this one to ensure they are in the mix for a home final. It will be close. The Swans need to hold Brown and the Lions need to hold Goodes and lately Kieran Jack.

Sydney by 11

Richmond V Port Adelaide at Etihad Sunday

Last game for Ben Cousins who has overcome a hamstring strain and an opportunity for Power’s Primus to tighten his hold on the coaching job. Both teams are playing okay considering their ladder positions but the Tigers need to round off a reasonably good season with a win. Richmond has signed Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin for a few years into the future and a win in this game is important for the Tigers. That might be enough incentive for them to win the game. The loss of young Ebert with a knee injury might affect Port more than they would like to say.

Richmond by 6

Melbourne V North Melbourne at MCG Sunday

North seems to be the best team outside the 8 and this is an opportunity for them to show us why. The Demons have fallen away a bit but this will be a close game won or lost in the last quarter. Jurrah has come down from the clouds after his wonderful mark last week and the Demon young guns are starting to look a little tired after a pretty good season. A few injury problems at North and the retirement of Jones will have a mixed affect so North will have to be right on their game to win. It will be interesting to see what motivation the players have in this game.

North Melbourne by 22

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[AFL-Review] Round 21

2010-08-22T13:57:00.000-07:00

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Geelong 18.13.121 Defeated Carlton 12.7.79
The Blues tried hard all game but whenever the Cats applied a bit more pressure they were able to keep ahead. Carlton weren't shamed they were just in a lower class. 7 goals is a reasonable margin. Ablett was kept possessionless in the first quarter but showed he is a true champ by kicking 4 goals and getting a few touches particularly in the second half. The Pods is in trouble even if he apologised to Gibbs for nearly making him a paraplegic. Careless and will cost, might get away with 2 weeks. He still kicked 4 for the Cats and goals for the Blues came from Waite, Henderson and Robinson. The Blues need to win next week against Freo to avoid travelling for their first and only final appearance. Geelong will be there at the end.

St Kilda 17.13.115 Defeated Richmond 14.10.94
The Tigers took it right up to the Saints in this match but like Carlton and Geelong there is a significant difference in class. Reiwoldt kicked 7 and Reiwoldt kicked 3. The one that kicked more was in the team that lost the game. Richmond was competitive and that's about all a coach can ask. Dal Santo and Montagna had many possessions for the Saints and Goddard looked like he took the mark of the year. Well it was until the next day. St Kilda will be happy they did enough and Richmond ditto.

Hawthorn 24.11.155 Defeated Fremantle 5.9.39
The game was a farce and it shows that the statement that the Dockers think they have depth in their squad is a load of codswallop. Freo supporters will be hoping that their team can perform a little better against Carlton next week. Johnson was playing his 100th game for the Dockers after being banned for a few weeks when he was caught taking drugs. When he looked at the scoreboard at 3 quarter time he must have thought he'd had a sniff again! Freo had 1 goal to 3 quarter time and Johnson had kicked that one. Harvs and the Dockers management better have got this right in preparation for next week. Embarrassing. Buddy kicked 5 and Roughy kicked 4 as did Burgoyne. In fact Franklin's score and rushed behinds was enough to beat the Dorks.

Collingwood 6.18.54 Defeated Adelaide 7.9.51
This was the close game of the weekend and the kicking woes continue to dog the Pies in a game where they had 24 scoring shots to 16. Rushed was the major point scorer for Collingwood and the Crows can consider themselves unlucky. Collingwood wins the minor premiership but please don't stop now. It's their first in 33 years that 1st place finish. That year they drew with North in the grand final and lost the replay. Thompson and Johncock for the Crows had lots of possessions as did Pendlebury and Sidebottom for the Pies. Forget about goal kickers. The Magpies play Hawthorn next week and Adelaide plays somebody as well.

Sydney 17.12.114 Defeated Western Bulldogs 10.10.70
The Doggies kennel cough seems to be more a case of rabies although a bite from these dogs is not necessarily one to fear. The Swans did the right thing by Captain Kirk and the supporters and will play a part in the finals. The Bullies will either win the premiership or be out in 2. Bad news about Cooney whose season might be over with a torn hamstring and Brad Johnson might as well retire as he has injured his Achilles that's long term. Dennis-Lane for the Swans was the highest scorer with 4 goals. Bolton and Jack played well again for Sydney and who knows what 4 letter curses emanated from Rocket's mouth after that effort. Maybe he was all cussed out after last week's effort. Julie Gillard is their number 1 supporter so maybe it was a sign of what was to happen at the elections that day.

Port Adelaide 17.10.112 Defeated Melbourne 11.17.83
The number of shots on goal is probably not a real indication of the game as Port had the measure of the Demons by the start of the 3rd quarter. The poor away record continues for the Dees and Primus puts another notch on his coaching belt. I mentioned earlier that Goddard's mark of the year lasted just a day because Melbourne's Jurrah took a real screamer in this game that might just win him the trophy. Port's Ebert did his knee badly, and players like Cassisi with 29 touches and Schulz with 5 goals were the best for the Power. Melbourne was disappointing considering their season to date and Jurrah capped off his mark of the year with 4 goals and Cameron Bruce racked up 39 possessions. These two teams have been a nightmare to tip all year so nothing has changed.

Brisbane 14.11.95 Defeated Essendon 10.8.68
The return of Brown for his 200th was worth watching he starred. Not a lot can be said for the Bombers whose final score flatters them. Brown had 16 marks, 27 possessions and kicked 4.6, that was enough to have beaten Essendon by the end of the 3rd quarter when the Bombers had the same score. The result was a good one to take a bit of pressure off Voss but the opposite will apply to Knights as the tremors reach richter scale proportions. I know this is crazy but don't you think the players have something to do with poor performance? Essendon just don't have the cattle. QED.

North Melbourne 16.14.110 Defeated West Coast 14.10.94
The Eagles looked like they were going to win the game at one stage and their fans were hoping for a good end to the season. But as the game wore on North was just far too good and finished strongly so the West Coast fans got some consistency another loss. Harvey for North played his 300th and he would have been a lot happier at the end of the 3rd quarter after a slow start saw them looking at a possible defeat. Wilson bobbed up with 4 for the Eagles and LeCras kicked his usual 2. Wright for North also kicked 4. Harvs was amongst North's best and the Eagles certainly look a lot better with Hurn back in the side. North will finish strongly but the Eagles need a lot of work and a lot of injured players back. West Coast has already sacked two coaches as part of their football review. More bloodshed to come there.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 21

2010-08-19T05:51:00.000-07:00

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AFL Preview Round 21

Here we are tipsters, the second last round of the AFL season. The top 4 are pretty well set assuming there is a Bulldogs win this weekend. It’s a bit late I know but the preview gave you 8 winners last week and even the margins were in the ball park! Marvellous effort. While I was on teh train on teh way to the MCG last Friday night I suddenly realised that I had not put my tips in for the weekend with the 3 comps I am in. I also used to occasionally put $10 on my card selections with Sportsbet but didn’t do that either. Typifies the season. However I won the jackpot in the Hoo Memorial but had to share the $78 with 3 others. I invested the money immediately, not in stocks and bonds but by putting it towards next year’s tipping entry fees.

The Ben Cousins saga is drawing to a close so it will be interesting to see what the journos can find to fill that gap over the next 12 months. Of more interest is what will Cuz find to fill the gap?

The Brownlow medal is being handed to Dane Swan by most media experts based on data. He’s such a quiet, unassuming guy that maybe the umpires don’t notice him as much as Ablett or Judd. He certainly has the stats to take out the medal but last year he polled only 12 votes. One prediction is for sure at this year’s Brownlow – Fev won’t be invited!

Geelong V Carlton at Etihad Friday night

Last week the Cats won by 101 and Carlton won by 89. The difference in winning margins is 12 points and with the Bulldogs kennel cough now passed on to Geelong there might be the distinct possibility that the Blues will get that close. Maybe. Carlton have been boasting how they have beaten Geelong and St Kilda this year but it was all downhill after that. However, a return to form playing Richmond and Essendon will fill then with confidence and they will need it to take on the Cats who won by a landslide last week against The Bulldogs. Geelong seems to be building for the finals so it’s doubtful that the Blues will find them on an off day twice in a season.

Geelong by 12

St Kilda V Richmond at Etihad Saturday

The Saints are on the rampage and a young Tigers team will be run over, chewed up and spat out as the Saints go on to win this by a healthy margin. Bye Ben. Nick has really hit his straps over the past couple of weeks and was BOG for the Saints last week against North. It’s hard to see who in the backline for the Tigers can hold Riewoldt this week as well. He could kick 10 just like his cousin did a few weeks back against the Eagles. One of the Reiwoldts will star. Guess which one?

St Kilda by 88

Hawthorn V Fremantle at Aurora Tassie Saturday

The furtherest point from Fremantle in WA is the Aurora stadium in Tasmania. Lately the Dockers have not been travelling well. Lately the Dockers have not been playing well. This is a tough ask and maybe Freo is banking on beating Carlton next week because resting Pav and the fact that they might not have Sandilands back with his injured foot does not help. Rumour has it that the Dockers will leave even Pavlich out! It’s hard to make a positive case for Fremantle so I won’t bother.

Hawthorn by 21

Collingwood V Adelaide at MCG Saturday

If you wanted to disrupt a team at any time during a season ban one of your best players for the remaining two games because he wants to play elsewhere. Soooo professional. They will, not as a result of that action, but because they are an inferior team, looooose!! The Pies are not resting players as they approach the finals so the interest remains whether Josh Fraser will get to play his 200^th. Will Mick persist with playing Medhurst to help get him used to the AFL pace or will Davis return? The Crows have given up on this season so they might blood some more youngsters. The Birdman Burton is no longer flying for them either. Adelaide will need towork hard to keep this from being a complete walkover.

Collingwood by 45

Sydney V Western Bulldogs at the SCG Saturday

The Swans are on a bit of a roll lately and there’s nothing to say that they can’t win this game. However, if it was the virus last week that caused the huge Bulldog loss, and, assuming they are all okay this week, they should win! Brad Johnson has been under scrutiny this week mainly due to Akermanis and his negative comments. I wish the guy would shut up really because his attacks on the Bullies reall smack of being a bad sport. This will be a close game based on form because one team needs a form reversal to overcome the form of the other team. And you all know how well we have tipped based on form this season?

Western Bulldogs by 29

Port Adelaide V Melbourne at AAMI Sunday

It’s a shame the Demons lost last week because they would have a greater incentive to win knowing they could play in a final. But they still should be good enough to beat Port who really fell over the line last week against the Eagles. The stats for the Dees winning at this ground and against this team are woeful. 10 years! Based on that history there is a good case for tipsters to lean towards the Power but honestly, did you see them play last week? Maybe the Eagles brought them down a bit in standard but there would have to be a significant improvement on that effort to be considered a chance against Melbourne. The Demons have reached new heights this season so maybe a win at AAMI against Port is another step up.

Melbourne by 30

Essendon V Brisbane Lions at Etihad Sunday

Both teams playing badly. Both coaches under siege. Neither team is going to make the finals. The game won’t even fill Etihad. Should be a draw but maybe the Bombers can put another 4 premiership points into the bag. They would have to play a lot better than they did last week against the Pies, a game in which they were woeful. Brown was injured last week so did not play his 200^th in front of a home crowd. Maybe they will hold him off until the last game of the year played at home to celebrate the occasion. Essendon beat the Saints during the year and Brisbane beat Collingwood. I’m going for the Bombers simply because it’s a home game for them but the result could go any way.

Essendon by 12

West Coast V North Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday

Well, with the wooden spoon dangling from the ceiling in the West Coast dressing room, the team cannot do any worse. North want to show that they were the true 9^th team so a loss would not help their pride. It’s a possibility that they will win this in a canter. For their captain Harvey, playing his 300^th, it would be a fitting tribute. I reckon the Eagles will give it a good go for their fans at home but they are playing awful football. Maybe North will be a bit down on their missing the finals so their desire will not be strong enough. We could get an upset. Nope.

North Melbourne by 51

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[AFL-Review] Round 20

2010-08-15T04:19:00.000-07:00

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AFL Review Round 20

Collingwood 24.18.162 Defeated Essendon 10.4.64

The Magpie machine continued to steamroll mediocre opposition and even though the margin was 98 points inaccurate Collingwood kicking in the last quarter saved the Bombers from an even greater margin. Happy! Cloke had 5.1 up to the end of the 3^rd quarter and 5.5 at the end of the game. The 4 misses were set shots well within his capability. So the Collingwood goal kicking accuracy remains a problem for them heading into September. Swan played well as usual but Pendlebury and Blair were better. Jobe Watson had 28 possessions for the Bombers but only 2 of these were kicks? Will Josh Fraser get his 200^th game? Only if they rest Jolly who sustained a leg injury late in the game. Pressure will no doubt be back on Matthew Knights and his coaching position with the Bombers. A combined beating of 174 points in the last 2 weeks might take a bit of explaining. Conversely Eddie is trying to work out how to tell Bucks to hold off on coaching the Pies until 2020!

Carlton 23.18.156 Defeated Richmond 10.7.67

If you had fallen asleep at the MCG at the half way mark of the Friday night game then woken up at half time for this game you wouldn’t have missed a thing. You would probably just be asking yourself why the jumper colours were different to when you fell asleep! Rumour about this game was that it was going to be close. The Blues seemed to have woken from a footy nap over the past 2 weeks although they have played two of the weaker teams. Waite and Garlett kicked 4 for Carlton and Judd was at his best. Cousins was playing for his life and we will know the result of that during the week apparently and also when the viewing of his drug movie will be scheduled. More happening with the Tigers off field it seems. How good is Carlton? They play Geelong next week. Hmmm.

Sydney 14.12.96 Defeated Fremantle 13.9.87

There were 10 lead changes in this game it was only the successful Sydney kick on goal after the siren that made the margin 9 points. Freo must win 1 more game for a home final but it’s looking bleak. Swans will play finals, so will Fremantle but whether it’s a home final for the Dockers remains up in the air. Hannebery for the Swans finished with 38 possessions and he was ably assisted by Jack and Mumford, the latter dominating the final quarter that helped Sydney win this game. Broughton and DeBoer played well for the Dorks but the question is where is Pavlich in these tight games? Fremantle will be lucky to win its 2 remaining games and with them a chance to play at home. Too many injuries.

Geelong 25.11.161 Defeated Western Bulldogs 9.6.60

The Bulldogs were crippled with a virus that spread through the players. Let’s hope so because this result would be putting them back 10 years. 4^th on the ladder beaten by over 100 points!! Insane! The Bulldogs kicked 1 point in the 2^nd quarter while Geelong kicked 10 goals! Just to push the Doggies snout into the muck the Cats added another 8 goals in the last quarter. Ablett was back to his best with 3 goals and a million touches and Johnson kicked 5 while Pods returned to the good books with 3. Giansiracusa tried hard for the Bulldogs. Rocket says don’t blame the virus but that’s a better option than saying they are a 100 point worse side than Geelong!

Port Adelaide 8.13.61 Defeated West Coast 8.12.60

The Eagles waited until the last quarter was almost over before levelling the scores. Some poor defence in the last minute cost West Coast a point scrambled by Port’s Rodan, enough to steal a win, pretty much the same as last week for the Eagles in their last gasp loss to Brisbane. It’s official! West Coast wins Wooden Spoon. It was almost a draw which would have been fitting. 16 goals total kicked in the entire game by both teams and at half time they had kicked 5! Cornes, Thomas and Cassisi picked up a lot of possessions between them and Rosa did okay for West Coast as did Cox who played his heart out in his 200^th to no avail. Strijk for the Eagles was their leading goalkicker with 3. Both these teams will be looking forward to the end of the season but next year is not looking a whole lot better.

Adelaide 15.14.104 Defeated Brisbane Lions 13.19.97

The game was close all day and even at the end of the 3^rd quarter the scores were level. The Crows fought out a courageous win seeing they lost 2 players early severely affecting their interchange rotations which was a hot topic for AFL rule change over the past week so Adelaide winning the game has actually put a spanner in the statistical manipulation and medical evidence against decreasing interchange moves! This was a no interest game like the Eagles and Port game. Neither team will be in the finals, not this year, not next year. Tippett kicked 5 goals for Adelaide and ditto for Clark of the Lions. Exciting because it was close.

Hawthorn 15.9.99 Defeated Melbourne 12.6.78

Another closely contested game this weekend and Melbourne gave their chances of a possible finals appearance their best shot but just fell short. The Demons lost this in the last quarter kicking a solitary goal to the Hawks’ 3. Unfortunate. Everyone will say that the president Kennett sting on his Hawks had effect but it was probably more damaging to the coaching staff rather than inspiring to the players. Loud mouth and a loud jacket! Franklin and Ellis kicked 3 for the Hawks and Buddy was Hawthorn’s best as well after Hodge copped a punch on the nose. Broken noses and broken legs this season are fairly commonplace as it seems Melbourne’s Davey broke his leg. Campbell Brown and Hodge can compare deviated septums in 20 years time. Bruce was the standout for the Dees and Jamar dominated ruck as can be expected since Hawthorn doesn’t have ruckmen. How far can the Hawks go from here?

St Kilda 17.13.115 Defeated North Melbourne 9.9.63

Any chance North had of making the finals was snuffed out with a big win by St Kilda led by Nick Reiwoldt who kicked 7.5 for the game. North were in this game only to quarter time. It was pretty well one way traffic after that. Goddard, Hayes and Gram had plenty of the ball to help Nick kick his bag of 7 and it was a creditable performance by Hansen for North who kicked 4. Brent Harvey was well held. He will have a better game next week against the Eagles for his 300^th. North coach Scott said: “We are 9^th for a reason.” That about sums it up.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 20

2010-08-12T06:37:00.000-07:00

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AFL Preview Round 20

Well tipsters here we are at round 20 already. Where has the season gone? Just the 3 rounds to go and we are into finals and like last year the top 4 contains the same teams and that was something many of us predicted. Currently the AFL is looking at some possible rule changes with the most bizarre being the one about the ball hitting the post and going through and still be called a goal or a behind! Sacrilege! This rule is as good as when the ball hits the goal post and bounces back into play then the game continues. Talk of rule changes in this area has come about because of 3 errors in the one week by goal umpires two of which could have been avoided with better calls while the Waite goal would have been hard to call even with slow motion replays. Technology is available to refer to when in doubt so use it. Cricket has gone that way, even highly contentious LBW rulings by umpires.
Interchange frequency is another victim of possible rule change. "Make the game faster" the officials said a few years ago. "Slow it down" they say now. "Leave it alone" we all cry.
Ben Cousins is back in the news again and the jury seems to be out on whether showing his tape of his drug battles is a good thing or a bad thing. A good thing for Ben may have been to worry about that movie after he finished playing and perhaps to keep a lower profile for a few months or a year if possible.
The tipping continues to be difficult mainly because form has not been consistent. So again this week we face a few matches that have teams with Jeckyll and Hyde form playing each other. Tipping selections for these games are pure guess work.
I will be attending the Collingwood versus Essendon game at the MCG and will be in the MCC members area! Wow! I have now attended more games at the MCG in one season than I was able to manage over 40 years. With the Pies heading for a few finals the possibility of more visits is strong. Anybody with free tickets and passes you know how to contact me. Good luck on your tips this week. Competition winning scores this year will struggle to make the 120 mark!

Essendon V Collingwood at the MCG Friday Night
The only problem the Pies might have winning this game is the emotional letdown after last week's game against Geelong. If Collingwood get over that then victory by over 10 goals should be achievable. Fletcher is out for the Bombers and the Pies have had to make a few changes as well with Medhurst in for Davis and there is a chance that Josh Fraser may play his 200th game at last. The Essendon fade out in the last quarter against Carlton last week would not fill Bomber fans with a great deal of confidence going into this match against the premiership favourites. Rightly so.
Collingwood by 60

Carlton V Richmond at the MCG Saturday
One would have to think that the Blues have a bit more going for them than the Tigers who put in a poor last quarter against Melbourne last week and if Carlton play a last quarter like they did against Essendon then you can expect a healthy margin. Reiwoldt might have better luck this week against a mediocre Carlton backline and he can hopefully kick a few goals to stay in touch with the Coleman Medal. LeCras might be more of a threat than Barry Hall in stealing the honours. We always thought it would be amazing to see a bottom of the ladder team supply the leading goal kicker but that was because of Reiwoldt playing for Richmond NOT because LeCras plays for West Coast! Judd, Bryce, Murphy and Simpson should get the better of Cousins, Deledio and Tuck and it's about time Betts got back into the goals to join Garlett who kicked 6 last week and won the Rising Star award as well.
Carlton by 44

Fremantle V Sydney at Subiaco Saturday
If ever Freo had to win a game then this is it. Unfortunately we can't be sure of which Sydney Swans team will turn up. The Sydney that likes to get beaten or the Swans winning team from last week.? Home town advantage might help but Fremantle is struggling. The Dockers also need Sandilands back in the side and it seems he has passed a fitness test and that might stop Sydney dominance at the stoppages. Freo should win this at home but with players like Tarrant, Barlow, Ballantyne, Crowley, Mayne and Silvagni all out injured that's a lot of holes to fill. Who will Fremantle place on Adam Goodes? I just can't see them winning this one. Pity.
Sydney by 11

Western Bulldogs V Geelong at Etihad Saturday
It is difficult to see the Cats losing two games in a row. The Bulldogs have been on a winning streak but almost lost to Adelaide in a real slugfest in dirty weather at AAMI. The tip was against Geelong last week but not this week. There is this huge virus sweeping through the Bulldog team and Cooney and Hudson have been omitted for that reason. Ling and Taylor are out for the Cats but with Wojcinski and Hunt coming back in you could hardly say they have been weakened.
Geelong by 21

Port Adelaide V West Coast Eagles at AAMI Saturday
Even though it is not in the interests of West Coast to win the game it's also hard to see that they can actually do that. Two of the bottom teams playing but there is a bit hanging on the game with the future of Primus and of course the future of some of the players. Some handy returns for the Eagles in Selwood, Shuey and Waters but the loss of Priddis and Brett Jones almost negates the returns. These are dark days for the West Coast Eagles believe me and such a proud club won't put up with this sort of season. What is the answer? An overhaul of the football department will no doubt be high on their agenda. Well they have had a lot of injuries to good players like their captain Glass and other players like Cox and Lynch have been out of form. Cox plays his 200th this weekend and it will be a sad day. Expect a close game but home ground advantage should be enough for the Power. The stats say that the Eagles haven't beaten the Power at AAMI since 1998!! Really? Don't mess with history.
Port Adelaide by 6

Brisbane Lions V Adelaide at the Gabba Sunday
Another difficult decision for tipping and although the Lions scraped home with the last kick of the day against West Coast they will probably find this harder against the Crows. When you see Simon Black's name as an interchange player you would be thinking the Lions are having a great season?? Hard to work that one out but........Jonathon Brown also plays his 200^th game but these milestone events for individual players rarely seem to finish on a happy note. Neither team has a lot to play for apart from pride so a draw would be fitting but unlikely. The Crows have a guy like Nathan Bock to cut Brown out of the game and that would be enough for them to win.
Adelaide Crows by 22

Hawthorn V Melbourne at the MCG Sunday
With Hawthorn losing their last couple of games their position in the 8 is now being threatened by a surging Melbourne and possibly North Melbourne. Although the Hawks' form is questionable tipsters have to be careful not to get too carried away with the Demons who have still a bit of a way to go before they can be confident to beat sides like Hawthorn. The fairytale ends. Hodge needs to put in a Brownlow game because his form has been down of late and Roughead is having a horror season so here's a chance to make amends. The love of the underdog wants a Melbourne win but I think this one is beyond them.
Hawthorn by 19

North Melbourne V St Kilda at Etihad Sunday
The Saints are starting to get back to a bit of awesome form particularly against the lower sides. North has been playing well in recent weeks but winning this game is really beyond them. The margin was 100 points last time they met and I guess you can say if that margin is similar then they don't really deserve to be in the finals anyway. I reckon Scotty would agree with that. I do.
St Kilda by 55

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[AFL-Review] Round 19

2010-08-08T13:37:00.000-07:00

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Carlton 23.11.149 Defeated Essendon 9.19.73
A 10 goal last quarter by the Blues and 2 missed goals.by the goal umpires and it looks like Carlton play finals and the Bombers are back to hopeless. The reaction from the lads at Carlton was expected after their own coach labelled them soft.ish. Judd played a major part in getting the hard ball at the stoppages while the rest of the players stood on the fringe waiting for him to release the ball. It works a treat. Garlett, who had been missing for a few weeks was given enough room to kick 6 goals and Waite contributed 4 well 5 really but the one he skidded off his instep was disallowed. Friday night seems to bring out the 'crazies' in the umpires who liberally applied inexplicable 50 metre penalties during the game. Stanton played okay in a losing Bomber side and as can be seen from the score line most of the Carlton players contributed to a big win.

North Melbourne 19.9.123 Defeated Fremantle 10.9.69
Fremantle had far too many good players missing, add to that they played away and North had a lot more to play for with wins to Sydney and Carlton denying them entry to the top 8 and the result was predictable. Brent Harvey played another great game 3 votes for sure and considering his age and the lack of experience of players around him it's great to see his contribution. North had a 6 goal lead at the end of the 3rd quarter and it was really game over for Freo from that stage. Wright and Bastinac along with Harvey all booted 3 goals for the Kangaroos but it was a sad story for The Dockers whose injury list may be the reason they don't really get anywhere in the finals including the strong possibility of losing the right to have a final in Perth. Shame about that.

Sydney 19.15.129 Defeated Hawthorn 13.7.85
The Hawthorn coach was heard to say that his team had returned to that deep hole they were in early in the season. Sydney must have noticed that and decided to bury them deeper. Punters who like to have a bit on the Brownlow will be fretting a bit as Luke Hodge applied a careless tackle on Adam Goodes that will certainly go under the microsdopes of the tribunal. This was another game that was over at half time when the Swans led by 46 points! O'Keefe kicked 4 goals for Sydney and Franklin ditto for Hawthorn. The Hawks will be under some pressure to remain in the 8 should they drop 2 of their remaining 3 games which is a distinct possibility. Melbourne and North are knocking.

Collingwood 14.23.107 Defeated Geelong 12.13.85
A great game of footy but the Pies applied pressure often enough to bring about some unusual Geelong turnovers. Stats will show that Collingwood dominated this game in most areas and their scoreboard inaccuracy flattered the Cats. At one stage in the 2nd quarter the Pies had raced to a 28 point lead and it looked like a matter of how far for them. But the Cats hit back and not only bridged the gap but held a 1 point lead at half time compliments of a stupid 50 metre penalty. Inaccurate kicking looked like it was going to cost Collingwood dearly but they continued to put the Geelong ball players under the pump and at the 3 quarter time break they held a 13 point advantage. The Magpies never really let the Cats back into the game in the 4th quarter, increasing their lead and shutting down Geelong forward moves. It was pretty to watch. Another goal umpiring stuff up saw a clear goal kicked by Geelong's Burn disallowed. I guess that umpire will be waving flags at one end of the Ovens and Murray league 3rds game and the goal umpire that called Neagle's clear goal for Essendon in the game against Carlton a behind will be at the other end. We have the technology use it. We won't be calling up a replay of every goal kicked, just the real close ones and that's maybe 10 times a year. Anyway, Collingwood pressed their advantage in the final quarter and 37 shots on goal against 25 speaks for itself as a statistic. Stokes kicked 3 for the Cats as did Beames for the Pies. Didak was brilliant and he was ably assisted by Pendlebury for Collingwood and Chapman and Ablett were among the best for Geelong. Is it too early to get excited?

Brisbane Lions 10.10.70 Defeated West Coast 9.11.65
One can imagine the papers in the west headlining the Jonathon Brown bump in the back to the West Coast player and it not being paid as a free kick. Subsequently Brown kicked the winning goal with 15 seconds remaining and relegated the Eagles to their first wooden spoon. Sad. The game was not great as a spectacle with heaps of turnovers but it was close and that in itself makes it exciting for the supporters. Both teams kicked just 1 goal in the last quarter so it was similar to a game of soccer like a 1 all draw. Brown kicked 5 for the Lions which was pretty amazing considering the team kicked only 10 for the whole game. Eagles coach Worsfold spouted some positive garbage after the game but it's got to the stage that the only person listening to him is his missus maybe. All teams go through lows and the only positive you can take from this as a West Coast supporter is that it cannot get any worse. Brisbane also has a long way to go before a finals appearance presents itself but both teams can at least look forward to the introduction of the Gold Coast Suns to vie for the Wooden Spoon next season.

St Kilda 23.13.151 Defeated Port Adelaide 8.9.57
A Saints victory was predicted but this was a thrashing that most of us didn't see coming considering the reasonable form shown by the Power over the previous weeks. While the game was not quite over by the end of the 1st quarter it was definitely over by half time. Whenever Milne kicks 4 goals for the Saints you know they have a healthy, winning score. Riewoldt also booted 4 for the Saints and between them it was almost enough to beat the Power. With a 94 point margin the Saints are back in the premiership betting and Port has a lot of work to do. Hayes and Goddard seemed to be the best for St Kilda while Boak tried hard for Port Adelaide.

Melbourne 16.13.109 Defeated Richmond 11.14.80
The game was close all day as expected but a 6 goal last quarter by the Demons sealed the result. Can the Dees make the finals? It's still possible. Dunne with 5 goals and Jurrah with 4 were the main contributors for the Demons and Ben Cousins is showing why the Tigers better make sure he is on their list next year. Riewoldt could manage just the 1 goal for Richmond so the fight for the Coleman medal remains alive. It will be interesting for the Demons to see if they can add a place in the finals to the other accomplishment of eliminating their debt this year.

Western Bulldogs 8.13.61 Defeated Adelaide 7.11.53
If ever the Bulldogs needed a reality check after their last few games, which they have in a canter, then this was it. An extremely defensive game and Adelaide was unlucky not to win as was the Bulldogs lucky to win. Almost a tipster's nightmare. Barry Hall did not manage a goal and the wet conditions did not make for pretty football. Thompson and Symes played well for the Crows and Giansiracusa, Eagleton and Boyd tried hard all day for the Doggies. In a score line like that the major goal kickers don't rate a mention.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 19

2010-08-05T14:22:00.000-07:00

AFL Preview Round 19

So the season gets down to this. The big game at the MCG Saturday night is Geelong versus Collingwood to determine outright favouritism for the premiership. The Pies need to make a statement because the last couple of years they just haven't been up to the class of the Cats and the Saints. They crossed the first road with a win against St Kilda convincingly. A close game is a good game and for the sake of the crowd let's hope that's what we all get.

I am avoiding chatting about tipping because with 4 rounds to go the 'ton' hasn't been cracked yet and it will be round 22 before that actually happens based on existing weekly scores. The tips offered last week were a bit out there and risky but those tips went the wrong way while the so called easier tipping matches turned out to be disastrous upsets! After Essendon beat the Saints last Friday night I was reduced to tears. Fortunately sitting in the Southern Stand to watch Collingwood maul Carlton did bring back a smile to the dial. Apart from that game there was not a lot of joy in a weekend that gave me 3 points.

Good to see the dissatisfaction of direct telecasts is shared here in Victoria as it is, nay, more passionately debated, than in the West. In the day and age of advanced communications we are still reduced to listening to the radio or opening the AFL Match Day website to get current, live scores. Television broadcast rights in the next 5 years from 2012 will be sold for over $1billion and we can only hope that from those negotiations we get direct telecasts of every game and the viewer can choose which game they want to watch and how much they want to pay if they have Foxtel or Austar. Some tricky games again this week, but it's been like that all year so no good whinging about it now. Good luck.

Essendon V Carlton at the MCG Friday Night

Both these teams have had some big questions asked about them over the past few weeks so it will be interesting to see whether the Blues can respond as well as Essendon did. No idea as to who will win. The way Ratten criticised his players after their insipid effort last week against Collingwood we can expect some early fireworks in the game with the Blues needing to show some aggression. It's doubtful a young Essendon side will back away so an early brawl will probably settle a few nerves. Unfortunately $25000 worth of AFL imposed fines for ugly brawls doesn't actually mean either team played strong, gutsy football. Carlton has to win to stay in the top 8 and the Bombers need to win to ensure they keep their finals' chances alive. Interesting scenario.
Draw

North Melbourne V Fremantle at Etihad Saturday
North has the habit this season of winning after a bad loss but Freo got their season a bit back on track with a big win against West Coast. The loss of Ballantyne for the Dockers might tip this game in North's way. The withdrawal of Sandilands will add to the Dockers' woes. Tarrant is out for the season. The injury list at Fremantle is really threatening any success they may have hoped for in the finals. Maintaining success is closely related to a low injury list. While a win to North won't get them into the top 8 it will put pressure on teams like Sydney and Carlton who both have tough games this weekend. Keeping in line with the upcoming elections it seems the Arden Street oval surface will be upgraded by the ALP?? Don't ask.
North Melbourne by 23

Sydney V Hawthorn at the SCG Saturday
A loss last week by the Hawks against a resurgent Port Adelaide will have done nothing for their confidence but the same goes for Sydney who were thrashed by Geelong. Both teams really need to win to consolidate top 8 positions. Should be close. The Hawks don't depend on Cyril Rioli to win games but his two week suspension has not come at a good time. If Hawthorn can hold Goodes to a mediocre game they can win as Sydney seem to have too many players playing below their best which is reflected in their poor second half of the season. Expect a tough, rough encounter as both teams need to win badly.
Hawthorn by 11

Geelong V Collingwood at the MCG Saturday night
Cancel all other activities and sit down and watch the two best teams in the competition this year slug it out in front of 90,000 at the 'G'. The Pies need to reverse the result from the last game to give them the credibility of a flag win this year. Tough ask. Collingwood will have to maintain pressure football because you let Geelong off the leash for 10 minutes they are likely to put on 4 or 5 quick goals. The quality of their players all over the ground is far better than all other teams the reason they're so good I guess. But you have to like Collingwood's style and commitment. They slacked off in the last quarter against Carlton, something they will not want to do against the Cats although it's impossible to think that they will be 73 points ahead at any stage of the game. Dane Swan and Gary Ablett. Ottens and Jolly. Chapman and Maxwell. O'Brien and Johnson. Bartel and Beames. And so on. Both teams field very good players. Should be a cracker!
Collingwood by 11

West Coast Eagles V Brisbane Lions at Subiaco Saturday night
With a direct telecast around the country of the blockbuster at the MCG the interest in this bottom of the ladder clash is negligible. The Eagles can get off the bottom with a win and Brisbane can ensure the Eagles stay on the bottom with a win. Yawn. Biggest news about this game seems to be the misspelling of Eagles player mCkenzie's name (sic) by the AFL and oops! he was supposed to be suspended. Worsfold has finally admitted that his job is finished if the Eagles don't improve next year and I guess with a year of less injuries they should do better next season if that eventuates. Maybe get Cousins back in the line up if he's out of contract at Richmond? Just a thought. The Lions will also undergo a microscopic inspection of their football performance this year but no blame is being laid at the feet of the coach Michael Voss. Who knows? Miserable seasons for both teams.
West Coast by 15

St Kilda V Port Adelaide at Etihad Sunday
The Saints are on an upper and the Power is on an upper. Somewhere in the middle there will be a result. Can Port really beat the Saints at home? It's certainly possible with the Port players performing much better under new coach Primus. The Saints managed without Reiwoldt for 3 months but it seems his return has now unbalanced the team and they have not been convincing since Nick came back. The Saints need to win to maintain a strong presence in the top 4 and Port will want a win to maintain that forward impetus of the past couple of weeks. The Saints should be too good but it won't be easy.
St Kilda by 29

Melbourne V Richmond at the MCG Sunday
This is an interesting game as the Demons and the Tigers have been the big improvers in the AFL this year. It seems the Dees have come on a bit better than the Tigers and incredibly a win here puts them right in contention to pinch a place in the finals. Interest remains with Jack Reiwoldt for Richmond and whether he can continue kicking goals and win the Coleman medal. He is level with Barry Hall on 65 but as a forward I would prefer delivery from the Bulldogs ball players than Richmond's. Ben Cousins has to put in another good performance to keep his name in lights for the 2011 Richmond team. Brad Greene is having a great time up forward for the Dees, a statement you couldn't make last year, or the year before, or the year before that, or.you get the idea. Colin Sylvia plays his 100th for Melbourne and he has been hot the past few weeks. I think Melbourne has a bit more to play for.
Melbourne by 20

Adelaide V Western Bulldogs at AAMI Sunday
The Bulldogs seem to have sorted out a lot of mid season problems and are playing some pretty slick football. The late rush by Adelaide has fallen on its sword and they have no hope of winning this game. Home ground advantage enables us to lower the margin accordingly from 10 goals. A strong backline might stop Barry Hall from kicking 5 but I think not. Barry will be on 70 at the close of the weekend's AFL round 19.
Western Bulldogs by 49

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[AFL-Review] Round 18

2010-08-01T03:38:00.000-07:00

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Essendon 16.12.108 Defeated St Kilda 11.9.75
History repeats and it was general knowledge that the Bombers had some sort of hoodoo over the Saints, but, not many listened. And so it passed. The Saints are not looking like a hot premiership prospect at the moment with 2 losses and a draw from their past 3 games. And the knives sticking out of Matthew Knights' back from a couple of weeks ago are actually those trick magician knives where the blade pushes into the hilt. "It was just a joke Matty. All is forgiven!" Flaky Essendon supporters who should be doing something a little more constructive like intimidating members of the Essendon Lawn Bowls club so they will say yes to an extension of the Windy Hill ground to enable the Bombers to enter the 21st century with adequate training facilities. Monfries kicked 4 for the Bombers and Bachar Houli, the forgotten and much maligned Essendon half forward, kicked 2. The return of Fletcher to the Essendon backline was a major contributing factor for the Bomber win and the guy is 35 years old! Reiwoldt provided a bit across half forward for the Saints but they had a lot of players go missing.

Collingwood 15.15.105 Defeated Carlton 9.3.57
This was a very one-sided game thoroughly enjoyed by Collingwood supporters. At half time the Blues had kicked only 2 goals and the game was gone. The Pies led by 73 points at one stage and went into cruise control which allowed Carlton to kick 6 goals in the last. Carlton coach Brett Ratten stated that he was embarrassed by the effort of his guys and watching the game from the heights of the Southern stand at the MCG he was justified. Players did not attack the ball hard enough and constant fumbling and unsure ball handling allowed the Magpies to continually apply pressure and set up forward attacks at will. Poor goal front accuracy by Cloke for Collingwood who kicked 2.5 but took 12 marks kept the margin to under 10 goals at half time. Swan, Ball and Pendlebury dominated possessions around the ground and Didak and Davis were just brilliant up forward as well as around the ground. Judd copped a shoulder injury which didn't help Carlton's cause either. The Pies face Geelong next week, another BLOCKBUSTER, while the Blues will continue to fight for a finals berth.

Port Adelaide 13.14.92 Defeated Hawthorn 12.12.84
This was the second shock result of the weekend as Port stormed over Hawthorn in the last quarter. The result takes the pressure off the top 4 teams a bit but has now added pressure to the teams placed 5th to 13th. It seems Primus is making a difference at Port. The game was close all day with little separating the teams and it was just a last quarter goal kicked by Port's Stewart that sealed the result. Schultz, a Richmond reject, kicked 4 for the Power and Buddy put through 3 for the Hawks. The job Cornes did on Hodge was a contributing factor in Port Adelaide's win as the Brownlow favourite was kept to 18 possessions. Mitchell and Renouf were best for Hawthorn and as well as Schultz and Cornes for Port Westhoff and Cassisi were prominent. The result has probably put paid to Hawthorn's top 4 aspirations but has kept a faint hope glowing for a finals spot for Port Adelaide very faint.

Geelong 20.5.125 Defeated Sydney 9.18.72
The score line shows 27 shots for Sydney and 25 scoring shots for Geelong and still the Cats won by 53 but it was not inaccurate kicking for goal that cost the Swans the game. Just 4 goals down at half time the Swans succumbed to a Geelong onslaught that yielded them 8 goals to Sydney's 1 and from that point the game was really over. The Cats cruised in the last quarter which allowed the Swans to bridge the enormous gap that existed at the end of the 3rd quarter. Steve Johnson kicked 6 goals for Geelong along with 25 possessions and Ablett had 29 touches for his 3 goals. Goodes again played a lone hand for the Swans around the ground and up forward with 3 goals. It doesn't get easier for Sydney next week against the Hawks while all eyes will be on the Collingwood clash with Geelong at the MCG next Saturday night.

Melbourne11.8.74 Defeated Brisbane 9.10.64
The Demons once again had a good start and allowed Brisbane back into the game in the 3rd quarter. Near the end of the game there was only 5 points in it as the Demons sealed the result with a late goal compliments of a 50 metre penalty against Rockliff of Brisbane in the last 2 minutes. 3 wins from the last 4 games has the Demons knocking on the door of the top 8 and let's face it, most of us had them on the bottom of the ladder again this year. Brisbane, after a really good start to the season is now in a fight with the Eagles for the wooden spoon having lost 12 of the last 13 games. The new, young blood at Melbourne are all learning, the old guns are all still firing, rejuvenated one would surmise, so it is looking good for them in the future. Hard to reconcile where Brisbane is headed but after winning 3 premierships in a row, well, who cares for a while?

Richmond 15.1.100 Defeated Adelaide 11.14.80
The Tigers continue to win games and put paid to the resurgence of Adelaide who at one stage looked like they would make the finals. Not so. Richmond came out in the 2nd half and kicked 10 goals to 4 to make sure of another victory. It was nice to see Ben Cousins play one of his best games for the Tigers ably assisted by Tuck who had 33 possessions. Reiwoldt has gone off the boil a bit but managed 2 goals but was well held by Rutten of the Crows. Neither team will make the finals but Richmond has a bit to work on for 2011 and the Crows will need a few better players to be competitive.

Western Bulldogs 22.11.143 Defeated North Melbourne 10.12.70
Into the 3rd quarter this was a reasonably close game. The Bulldogs went crazy in the last term and piled on 9 goals to kick the sweep for the second week in a row. North still has a mathematical chance of making the finals and the Bulldogs are in the top 4 to stay. Barry Hall continues his good form with 7 goals alongside Giansiracusa who kicked 5. Hall has given the Doggies a pretty good return this season considering most critics thought he was a risky recruit. Matthew Boyd racked up 40 touches for the Bulldogs and players like Cooney, Cross, Lake and Higgins all had big possession days. As usual North's Harvey played well with 27 possessions and 3 goals and Rawlings with 30 plus as well contributed. North has blown a couple of chances now to make the top 8 and time is running out. The Bulldogs are looking very good and the early season prediction of them making the GF now has some substance. Look out the other 3 teams in the finals campaign.

Fremantle 24.16.160 Defeated West Coast Eagles 13.7.85
The mighty Dockers kicked the sweep and one can only imagine the frenzy of the purple mist that will be present in the streets of Perth after that effort. The Fremantle score at half time was 13.8 which was 1 point better than the Eagles finished with. Amen. Freo's niggling little forward Ballantyne kicked 6 and Pavlich returned to some form and kicked 4. LeCras continued his goal kicking with 5 for West Coast and he sits tantalisingly 3rd for the Coleman medal as a small half forward. Wooden Spoon for West Coast and some finals glory for the Dockers. Heave Ho.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 18

2010-07-29T13:00:00.000-07:00

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AFL Preview Rd 18

Just the 5 rounds to go tipsters and it seems we will have no change to the top 4 this year either as the same teams finish 1 to 4 like 2009. Hawthorn, after a disastrous season start, has settled into 5th position from which they will find it difficult, but not impossible, to win the flag. However, without a competent ruckman, the Hawks may struggle against the top 4 teams. Within those 5 remaining rounds it is possible to score 40 tipping points but as we have all discovered this season picking 8 winners in a weekend of AFL in 2010 is harder than finding a leak in the Labour Party ranks, harder than getting a MYKI transport card to work, harder than getting Mick Malthouse to admit the Pies are a chance to win the premiership and harder than getting a West Coast Eagles supporter to smile!! Some of the form reversals by teams from one week to the next defy logic. Tipsters are having a dickens of a time deciding on games, not so much for the possible close ones but in the games that you would normally be able to pick a clear winner based on form. 5 correct last week was good, 4 correct was acceptable and anybody who scored 6 obviously knows very little about this great game or, like some of us, has resorted to guesswork!

Essendon V St Kilda at Etihad Friday night
The Bombers performed some sort of miracle last week against North Melbourne but in this game against the Saints it will be a miracle if they can manage 10 goals. Hopefully all those lamps heating the grass on Etihad will be removed so we get a free flowing match. Yes that was a cheap shot. Not a lot more can be said about this game. The Saints have to win to maintain credibility as a premiership favourite and Essendon needs to win for Knights to keep his job. The return of Hille will be a great plus but after so many weeks away from the game it might be a while before he is really up to an effective standard. Reiwoldt is coming along just fine and the Saints will have adapted to his presence on the forward line well before the finals are upon us.
St Kilda by 44

Collingwood V Carlton at the MCG Saturday
Surprisingly we have a Saturday afternoon football game at the MCG with traditional rivals. The Blues gave the Eagles a bit of a start last week and over ran them in the second half to win comfortably. Based on form it's hard to see Carlton knocking off a pretty hot Collingwood in front of 80,000 at the 'G' and the Pies would love a 6 goal start. Now Mick (Malthouse) said during the week that the significance of this game is not what it used to be as it was when we had suburban warfare. Having been part of many of those suburban battles I would have to disagree and say that the animosity between the two teams transcends any modernistic bent you want to put on it as a psychological weapon to lessen the importance of the game in the eyes of the players. People with blue scarves and people with black and white scarves hate each other when watching their teams play. Can't be any simpler than that.
Collingwood by 31

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Saturday
The unexpected win by the Power last week caught all tipsters by surprise but don't expect the same in this match against Hawthorn who will be a bit peeved about the draw last week. It's back to the usual stuff for Port supporters. The fact that the game is being played at AAMI helps us determine the margin but does not affect the overall result. Roughead and Franklin will kick enough between them to beat the Power. The game might be close for the first quarter.
Hawthorn by 39

Sydney V Geelong at SCG Saturday night
How bad was Sydney last week against Melbourne? Well even a form reversal will not be enough for them to beat this Geelong team. Ling will tag Goodes and outside that most of the Cats players are in a class above the Sydney players. Admittedly the Swans could not play as badly as they did last week but if they are having a confidence crisis then this is not the game that will help them overcome that. Form reversals have been the order of the season but it would take a wild streak of imagination to think that Sydney is good enough to beat Geelong!
Geelong by 42

Brisbane Lions V Melbourne at the Gabba Saturday night
It was written that it is still possible for the Demons to make the finals this year? Well here's their chance because Sydney play Geelong, North play Western Bulldogs and Carlton play Collingwood - all are games that can go their way to help their cause. Tipsters have been a bit quick to get on the Melbourne bandwagon and the Dees almost believe their own press. Brisbane at home? Expect an upset. Some serious soul searching by the Lions and a home crowd might be enough to upset Melbourne playing away from home again and we all know their away record. Put it this way, when you are over 10 points behind the leaders in a tipping comp you just need a 'whiff' of an upset to pick that way. Who knows?
Brisbane by 17

Richmond V Adelaide at the MCG Sunday
Both teams showed awful form last week so picking the winner of this game is almost impossible. The Crows and the Tigers have a couple of good forwards, average backlines, similarly talented on-ballers. Mark this down as the 3^rd draw of the season. And tipsters, draws attract 3 points in most tipping competitions and while it is agreed that it is a pie in the sky selection desperation commands risk. So you come 41^st in the tipping rather than 24^th!! Really?
Draw

Western Bulldogs V North Melbourne at Etihad Sunday
North Melbourne has no hope in this game. If they get within 10 goals of the Western Bulldogs they can count it as a reasonable day. The Bullies are on some sort of quest and this is not the time for lower teams to think they will have a chance. They don't have a chance so it's no good pencilling in North to give you that upset point in tipping.
Western Bulldogs by 66

Fremantle V West Coast at Subiaco Sunday
The western derby is upon us again and the hype is high for the Eagles because the Dockers are on a downward spiral. Problem is that the Eagles are already in the basement and can go no lower. Last week West Coast had a second half fade out but Freo faded out the whole game. This will be a close match and can go either way. Look out for an upset. Tarrant is back for the Dockers and it has been suggested that he will play on LeCras. Bad move. Selwood is a big loss for the Eagles but the main concern is the lethargy of Fremantle players who seem to be looking for the end of the season rather than looking towards playing finals. Up to Harvs to get his team motivated. It's a bit of a fairytale for Fremantle and over these last few games they better start living the dream!!
West Coast by 7

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Tipping - Keeping soccer fever alive!

2010-07-26T23:46:00.000-07:00

Dear Footy List Subscriber,

With the Soccer World Cup having drawn to a close and celebrations in Spain slowly peetering out, it is time to look forward to the upcoming soccer season.

A soccer tipping competition is a great way to stay in touch with your tippers over the summer months when AFL, NRL and Super14 have come to an end for the year. Whilst a fair bit of attention turns to cricket, 'The World Game' is still the sport more people are involved in than any other.

We've sent you this email to let you know about the release of our Soccer 2010 editions.

We have released both an A-League edition and an English Premier League edition.

The 2010/11 English Premier League starts on Saturday 14th August and has a 38 round season ending in May 2011.

The 2010/11 A-League starts on Thursday 5th August and has a 27 round season ending in February 2010.

If you are already using our software this year then either of our soccer edition attracts a 33% discount.

As usual, there is no obligation to pay 'up front' - you can download the program and use it for the first 5 rounds before it requires registration/payment if you wish to continue using it.

More information is available on our website - http://www.footy.com.au/

If you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

Regards

The team @ Footy Tipping Software
orders@footy.com.au
ph 03 9533 0444
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[AFL-Review] Round 17

2010-07-25T04:00:00.000-07:00

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St Kilda 14.3.87 Drew with Hawthorn 13.9.87
This was a titanic struggle and a great game of football almost ruined by two umpiring technicalities regarding interchange and runners. Another draw for the season providing little joy for tipsters. Buddy kicked 5 lazy goals for the Hawks while Kozy, Milne and Schneider all kicked 3 for the Saints. One wonders how much better a player Franklin would be if he just cut out the crap on the field at times. He gave away 200 metres in penalties and these were basically for stupidity. Still, after a cuddle from the coach he seemed to have got the message. There has been a bit of flak against Koszitsche over the past few weeks and when he kicked 3 goals in the first quarter it looked like he would answer the critics in the best possible way. But after the first quarter he was not as effective. Hayes and Goddard were good for the Saints and Hodge and Franklin seemed the best for Hawthorn. Watching a match a few weeks ago I thought Del Santo had his nose broken and it looked like he had it broken again during this game. Ditto Brown for the Hawks and added to a smashed lip on Gardiner the saying that the game was full of blood and guts seemed to hold true this night.

Collingwood 19.13.127 Defeated Richmond 6.9.45
The match went to script and showed us the difference between the top side and the almost bottom side. The Pies had a 7 goal lead at half time and continued on from there. Collingwood controlled the game and at times tended to be a bit cute but they could afford it. Dane Swan collected 37 possessions again as a stand out and he was ably supported by Didak, Pendlebury and Johnson playing his 200th. Cousins and Tuck collected over 20 touches each for the Tigers but it was difficult to see just how effective they were. Leon Davis got back into some sort of goal kicking mood with 4 but the Pies would be a better team with a proper full forward and one they would be prepared to stick with. Maybe when Cloke returns to the team next week their forward thrusts might yield better results. The Tigers have a long way to go so maybe by 2015 we might see them closer to a final appearance.

Geelong 19.13.127 Defeated Brisbane 9.10.64
Again the difference between the good sides and the rest is a chasm and perhaps the AFL should look at a mercy rule when a team is 10 goals down. Especially if the game is in Geelong because then spectators can hit that highway and be home at a reasonable time grabbing a bite of fish and chips on the way home. Ablett kicked 5 for the Cats and with Varcoe and Johnson who both booted 4 each that was enough to beat the Lions anyway. Jonathan Brown's 4 goals in that team total is a significant contribution. Selwood had 41 possessions for Geelong and rumour has it that he will win the club best and fairest ahead of Gary Ablett who was seen mouthing the words to the Gold Coast Sun's club song when resting on the bench in preparation for next season!

Essendon 18.14.122 Defeated North Melbourne 18.11.119
The fickle finger of fate pointed at North in this match during which they suffered some unexpected player changes due to injury. The heat came off the Essendon coach but results like these continue to frustrate knowledgeable tipsters. North lost Wells just before the game forcing them to get David Hale to get changed and be available even though Hale had already played a game for the VFL team that day!!?? This is AFL we are talking about here but North was forced to resort to school yard football tactics to field a full side? Neither backline functioned effectively in this game with both teams kicking 18 goals apiece. This was a disastrous result for tipsters.

Carlton 15.19.109 Defeated West Coast 11.17.83
How can a team allow a 52 point turnaround in a half of football when they have been dominating the first two quarters? Carlton must have been suffering jet lag up to half time after which they played a totally different game to win reasonably easily. The 12 goal hero, LeCras, from last week managed just 3 goals this week but it was the effective blanketing of the West Coast's Priddis by Ellard that probably made most of the difference. Betts and Garlett kicked 3 each for the Blues which was a turnaround from the previous two weeks during which they kicked none. Murphy and Simpson as well as Judd played well for Carlton while Rosa and Strijk, before he was carried off the field injured, were the main contributors for West Coast who would be pretty disappointed with that second half fade out. The Blues play Collingwood next week and the Eagles might have a chance against a fading Fremantle.

Western Bulldogs 24.14.158 Defeated Fremantle 12.4.76
One would think that the departure of Akermanis had a positive effect on the Bulldogs who kicked a season high score to obliterate top 4 pretenders Fremantle. The game was virtually over by the end of the first quarter but definitely by half time. Pav kicked 4 for the Dockers in a dirty day and Hall did likewise for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have ensured the top 4 will be the same as last year but Fremantle will need to be careful they don't drop their bundle completely. They will play finals but the intensity of the early season they showed has gone partly due to the loss of Barlow from the on ball group. It looks like the Western Bulldogs are ramping up as season finals approach so their timing is good.

Melbourne 22.10.142 Defeated Sydney 10.9.69
Notorious for slow starts the Demons came out and won this game in the 1st quarter. Those among you who have a reasonable explanation for such unpredictable form reversals please step forward. Melbourne played exceptionally well and it looked like the Swans had other things on their mind, maybe what to buy their departing coach Roos as a going away present at the end of the year. I reckon a tape of the 2005 grand final would be an okay prezzie. Green dominated up forward for the Demons kicking 5 goals and Goodes was the standout for the Swans kicking 4. Melbourne had a lot of good players on the day and with that scoreline it's obvious the whole team played well.

Port Adelaide 13.10.88 Defeated Adelaide 9.15.69
Well what can you say? A totally ridiculous result based on what the end prize was for the Crows, to say nothing about the recent form of both teams. It is understood that not even Port supporters saw this one coming!! Had the Crows won this game they would have been knocking on the door of the 8 after a great few weeks of form, especially beating Geelong last week. Yep, they beat the Cats last week and maybe that's the reason they were flat today. But all they had to do was turn up and try a bit and they would have accounted for Port. Pearce, Cassissi and Cornes dominated for Port with Westhoff booting 4 for the Power. At time of writing no stats were available for the Crows. Maybe they turned their computers off at half time in disgust when it was obvious the bird had flown. Carlton, North and Swans can breathe a little easier after this surprise defeat of Adelaide.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 17

2010-07-22T16:07:00.000-07:00

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AFL Preview Rd 17
Akermanis got the chop his time is up down south
What did he think? Opinionated, brash, he would not shut his mouth!
The Bulldogs knew when recruiting him just what the guy was like
Seems strange to cut him out so late and tell him "Take a hike!"
Choco's also gone from Port, was he sacked or did he leave?
He says yes and they say no so who do we believe?
6 rounds to go the Pies on top and Mick is looking serious
Say nothing of the Magpie fans who carry on delirious!
At Bomber land all ain't well, on this season turn out lights
Players just aren't good enough so might as well sack Knights.
They said the same at Hawthorn when the Hawks had one from seven
Now they're nine from sixteen Clarkson's entered heaven!
Thompson's got the Cats fine - tuned, it's almost in the bag
Will they win the premiership and get another flag?
The Saints are there, they're in the mix to hold the finals cup
Hoping they go one step better and not be runners up!
The rest? Well you can raffle them, not really true contenders
More like making up the 8, really just pretenders.
Good to see the Dockers there giving it a go
After years of nothingness, good onya bloody Freo!

Tipsters, some reasonably hard games to choose from but it's proving this season that even the easy games are giving us little joy. 6 rounds to go and if you are 10 points down you might as well swing towards the more unlikely winner in what you consider to be possibly one sided. Desperate situations bring about acts of desperation.
For those looking for signs with regard to the premiership? Collingwood has managed to be there in the grand final every 20 years. 1970 against Carlton, 1990 against Essendon, so 2010 could be a possible appearance for them again. Who knows?

St Kilda V Hawthorn at Etihad Friday Night
What a great game for Friday night and better still the match is being played at Etihad undercover so there will be no excuses for slippery conditions. The Saints played terribly last week and a repeat of that performance will see them lose this game against the Hawks.
St Kilda by 7

Collingwood V Richmond at the MCG Saturday arvo
The Tigers hit a speed hump last week against North and you can expect them to hit a wall this week against Collingwood.
Collingwood by 55

Geelong V Brisbane Lions at Skilled Saturday arvo
Brisbane managed just 43 points in total against Hawthorn last week in Tassie and believe it or not they will find this game even harder at Skilled against The Cats.
Geelong by 87

North Melbourne V Essendon at Etihad Saturday night
There's lots of trouble brewing in Bomber land and when things are going really wrong it's best to blame the coach. We all expected a form reversal from Essendon last week against the Eagles but it was not forthcoming. North is playing well enough to win the game and keep the pressure on the top 8 and unfortunately on Knights.
North Melbourne by 16

West Coast V Carlton at Subiaco Saturday night
Here's another desperately hard game to pick as both teams are showing completely opposite form. The Blues are suffering just that and if LeCras kicks just half of what he kicked last week it will be enough to bury Carlton. But West Coast is really bad so a form reversal by the Blues is a reasonable call.
Carlton by 11

Western Bulldogs V Fremantle at Etihad Sunday
Here's the true battle for 4th place and you would have to think the Bulldogs have just a bit too much class for Freo who seem to be losing a bit of intensity as the season progresses.
Western Bulldogs by 31

Melbourne V Sydney at the MCG Sunday
Based on current form this should be an easy win for the Swans. Allowing for the Swans' trip to Melbourne and a partisan Demon crowd it will help reduce the margin by a couple of goals but still won't get the Dees over the line.
Sydney by 22

Port Adelaide V Adelaide at AAMI Sunday
The Adelaide Crows are playing for a place in the finals. Port Adelaide is playing to avoid a wooden spoon. One South Australian side will prevail.
Adelaide by 44

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[AFL-Review] Round 16

2010-07-18T02:54:00.000-07:00

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Adelaide11.8.74 defeated Geelong 9.9.63
They say that this is one of the harder tipping seasons ever. No wonder after a result like this. The Cats looked too tired and the Crows looked like they wanted it. They got it. Maybe the pre-game life and death drama upset the Geelong players when their club doctor suffered a heart attack. Ablett had only 19 possessions although Selwood with 35 and Chapman with 25 both played well. The Geelong backs held Tippett to a goal but forgot about Taylor Walker who kicked 4. The Crows keep on winning and it looks like it is a matter of which team they displace from the top 8 at this rate. The Cats will be okay until they play Collingwood.

Collingwood 15.10.100 defeated St Kilda 6.16.52
It was game on in the first couple of minutes as both teams scored goals. After that it was all the Pies as the Saints fumbled, bumbled and kicked atrociously on goal to suffer a hiding. Collingwood, thanks to Adelaide, now sit on top of the ladder. Swan, who was held, scragged, impeded and unfairly handled all day, still managed over 30 quality possessions to be best on ground and along with Thomas, Didak, Wellingham and Pendlebury dominated around stoppages and hard ball gets. Montagna played well for the Saints and Fisher's stats will show plenty of possessions but many were non-contested. St Kilda will need to regroup before next week's game against Hawthorn. The Pies have not been on top of the ladder since round 16 1990. That's an ominous sign!

Hawthorn 17.16.118 defeated Brisbane Lions 7.1.43
The return of Jonathan Brown to the Lions meant nothing as the Hawks buried the Brisbane Lions by a whopping 75 points. The tip was relatively easy to pick the margin not so. The Lions managed to avoid kicking a behind until the last quarter but this was more because they had not had a lot of shots on goal anyway 8 actually for the whole game! The bad sign for other teams is that Roughead finally kicked a few goals in the absence of Franklin. Hodge and Burgoyne were among the best for the Hawks and Brown kicked 3 goals in his comeback game for the Lions. Lots of problems at Brisbane and not a lot of problems at Hawthorn who have completely turned around their early season form and will certainly be playing in the finals.

Western Bulldogs12.11.83 defeated Port Adelaide 7.5.47
The arrival of a new coach doesn't mean a lot when you have the same old players. In trying heat conditions the Bulldogs put a stranglehold on the game and kept it like that for 4 quarters. Port is in need of a blood transfusion. The Power started pretty well and at the end of the first quarter it looked like it might be another upset but the Bullies prevailed to get back level by half time and surge away in the second half during which Port managed a solitary goal.

West Coast Eagles 20.12.132 defeated Essendon 14.16.100
There were two interesting aspects to this game. The first was LeCras for the Eagles kicked 12.2 and that's really something else. The second was that Essendon played as well as was expected but we all thought they would still win. The race for the Wooden Spoon is back on so there has been a renewed interest in the bottom 4 teams. West coach Worsfold might have an easier week from his detractors and the press this week but the papers here will be right onto the Bombers coach giving him Knightmares!! Apart from the 12 goals by LeCras Priddis continued his good form with over 30 touches and veteran Embley had a good night as well. I walked from the MCG to the Crown casino and lost $100 when I should have kept walking and gone to Etihad to see the 12 goal haul.

Sydney 16.11.107 defeated Carlton 10.8.68
Tipsters have been depending on Carlton to show some sort of form that they know they are capable of. However the Blues continue to disappoint. Sydney seems to have rediscovered early season form. Another tip gone wrong for most. Adam Goodes continued his stellar form with 25 possessions plus a goal and Marc Murphy along with Jordan Russell was the best for a bad Carlton team. The loss of Kruezer was prominent in this game and the ongoing loss of Fevola is having an impact as was predicted pre-season. Maybe not in total score kicked but certainly with forward structure. Things look dicey for the Blues as Adelaide is now breathing down their neck and playing a whole lot better. Based on the past few weeks my money is on the Blues not making the finals as they seem to be the weakest team in the 8. You read it here first.

North Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated Richmond 7.11.53
The only people to get this tip right are die-hard North supporters who somehow saw a 180 degree form reversal from the past two week as North went into this game against Richmond who, maybe, had become overconfident after 4 consecutive wins??!! Go figure. The Tigers won their first game in the wet against Port Adelaide but did not adopt the same style in the wet against North at the MCG. Reiwoldt kicked 3 for Richmond and considering they kicked only 7 that was a pretty good effort. Cousins was the ball magnet for the Tigers While Swallow and Harvey had plenty of possessions for North who remain one game outside the 8.

Fremantle 11.16.82 defeated Melbourne 10.11.71
Fremantle was able to hold off the Demon challenge and put themselves back into the top 4. Both the Melbourne and Richmond bandwagon threw a wheel this weekend and the reality is that neither team is top 8 material. Freo against the Bulldogs next week will be the match of the round. This game was virtually over by half time when the Dockers led by 6 goals but to Melbourne's credit they kicked the next 6 goals and with 6 minutes to go the Demons were only a point down. Both teams kicked a swag of points until finally Freo put one through to seal the game. At time of writing no stats were available but listening to the commentary Pav had a bad day and Scully had a good one. All Fremantle players will need a good day next week.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 16

2010-07-15T03:35:00.000-07:00

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As one of many tipsters who have had a sorry season tipping, my future, weekly predictions will carry a bit of desperation in them. This is simply to try and make up some ground on the leaders in tipping comps who are now sitting some 8 to 11 points ahead with only 7 rounds to go. This week there are a few games that could go either way so you need to apply a mixture of bravery, knowledge and stupidity. It has been a difficult season due to the inconsistency of those teams that occupy positions 5 to 15 on the ladder. I can't even blame the World Cup as a distraction as I never watched a single game live. The main fascination during the Cup seemed to be an octopus that never made a mistake predicting winners! Let's kidnap him and bring him to AFL country to see how well he can pick winners here. I bet he lasts no more than a few weeks before he appears as octopus rings cooked to almost perfection on Master Chef!
The AFL was hit mid week with the proposition of introducing female umpires. The idea was not howled down so I guess there must be a reason that it might be looked upon favourably. Can a woman umpire be any worse than some of the efforts we have seen this season? Probably not. Will a certain time of the month affect the decision making process by a woman during a game? Probably. Just looking at the umpire with a suspicion of dissent might cost a player a 50 metre penalty! Swearing? I've heard some pretty colourful language from lips a lot sweeter than Barry Hall's so I doubt a woman umpire would be offended. Depends what time of the month on that one as well. Interesting times huh?
I am driving down to Melbourne to watch Collingwood play the Saints at the MCG on Saturday. It will be the first time I have watched the Pies play there for many years and an upset win would round off the weekend nicely.

Adelaide V Geelong at AAMI Friday night
As well as the Crows are playing which has resulted in Adelaide knocking on the back door of the final 8 one would think that meeting the Cats in their current form should stop them in their tracks momentarily. Somebody has to step up to the plate (baseball term used in footy!!) and wrestle Adelaide to the ground because they are scaring the heck out of Sydney, Carlton and Hawthorn. Geelong had a tough game last week but they still have enough talent in that team to beat a fast improving Crows. Ablett needs to remember that 32 possessions with his existing team will need to be 43 possessions for the Gold Coast Suns....should he go of course.
Geelong by 21

Collingwood V St Kilda at the MCG Saturday
Both teams have won their last 5 games if Collingwood can count the draw with Melbourne as a win. Well, it wasn't a loss. The Saints struggled against lowly Brisbane last week and the Magpies ditto against Port Adelaide. Are the Saints struggling to adapt to the return of Reiwoldt? Can the Pies make a statement for the season? They have not been able to penetrate that Saints defence and were allowed 4.17 in the last meeting. Inside 50's were about even so Collingwood needs to apply scoreboard pressure. Medhurst, Fraser and Leon back in the team might help. Then again........Cloke rubbed out and Maxwell still injured. Rumour has it that if the Pies can kick a higher score than St Kilda they will win. Gotta believe that!
Collingwood by 12

Hawthorn V Brisbane Lions in Tassie Saturday
Cold weather and a hot game against the Cats last week may not be the ideal set up for the Hawks to continue on their winning way. Buddy luckily escaped suspension and further luck is that Hawthorn is playing Brisbane who has lost their last 5 games. There seems to be some unrest in the Lions' camp as well and the almighty Voss may not be as great a coach as we all seem to think. But when a team is losing consistently like Brisbane then there are bound to be lots of whingers inside and outside the club who seem to find a sympathetic ear. Ask Clarkson, the Hawks coach, who was gunning for him after the first 6 rounds this season? Footy love it.
Hawthorn by 19

Essendon V West Coast at Etihad Saturday night
The Bombers have lost 5 in a row and supporters are calling for the head of Essendon coach Matthew Knights. West Coast is in worse shape and this result might cost Whoosha his job too. The Eagles can't win at home so it's doubtful they will win away. I'm tipping a draw. For West Coast their 8th consecutive loss looms and there is a definite tarnish to the glow of home town hero John Worsfold. West Coast has suffered a heap of injuries and so has Essendon but at least the Bombers somehow beat a couple of the teams above them early in the season. What Essendon hasn't done is beat West Coast this season and with the ruckus going on in their camp after that loss to the Demons last week they might just have that rocket lit under their maximus gluteus enough to take the points. We'll see.
Draw

Western Bulldogs V Port Adelaide in Darwin Saturday night
The Power sacked their coach simply to give Port the chance of winning this game knowing that a new coach inspires the team to bigger and better things in that first week. Lack of overall talent is probably a little harder to compensate. Last week the Port players found that bit of extra for outgoing coach Choco Williams but it was still not enough to beat the Pies. The Bulldog wins against West Coast and Brisbane were expected but their thrashing of Carlton stands head and shoulders above those wins. Lucky for Port Adelaide that Barry Hall is injured. Matthew Primus, as the new coach for Port Adelaide, is keen to take on the job full time. He is a serious masochist. Laidley knew what he was doing knocking that engagement back. Dean Laidley has been offered the coaching job at West Coast after that team disposes of Worsfold at the end of this wooded spoon season so he doesn't want to do anything to jeopardise that appointment.
Western Bulldogs by 41

Carlton V Sydney at Etihad Sunday
This is definitely the hardest game from which to pick a winner. Sydney ambushed a very disappointing North last week and the Blues were horrible against the Bulldogs. The Blues really need to win this one and their inconsistent form makes them ripe for the picking. Adam Goodes' game for Sydney last week was excellent so Carlton need to put a stopper on him as does Sydney need a stopper on Judd. Both teams are very lucky that Adelaide is playing Geelong this weekend which will give the loser of this game some breathing space. The selection is Carlton simply because the game is being played in Melbourne. It will be close all day.
Carlton by 5

Richmond V North Melbourne at the MCG Sunday
Both teams have proven to be difficult to select because of form but the Tigers of late have been the epitome of consistency. This will be a close game therefore the margin will be small hence there will be a lot of frustrated tipsters as the result could have gone either way. Remember the last time they met it was a draw! It's difficult to see what players North can muster to stop Jack Reiwoldt up forward. When will the Richmond winning streak come to a stop? And who could have imagined that last sentence appearing in any AFL preview this year? 700 million watched the soccer World Cup final (I was not one of them). You sit there all day at a soccer match and see a nil all draw or a 1 0 win. Go to the AFL and you see scoring all day!! Only goes to show the majority are not always right.
Richmond by 4

Fremantle V Melbourne at Subiaco Sunday
The Dockers really need to get back into the winning circle after a couple of losses that have put their top 4 finish in jeopardy. While the Demons are playing okay they should be no match for Fremantle at home and the Dockers have a lot to play for. Next week they meet the Western Bulldogs to finally settle 4th position. The expectation that Freo would make the finals at all was a tough one so now the talk of them being a top 4 team might be a little misplaced. Freo needs some heave ho this weekend.
Fremantle by 37

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