[AFL-Review] Round 12

AFL Review Round 12

 Well tipsters it is a rare event but worthy of mention to let you all know that the preview selected the 8 winners this long weekend. There were doubts with some of the selections and at three quarter time it looked like I had swung the wrong way with the Geelong versus Hawthorn game but as predicted, the Cats just seem to be able to squeeze wins out of tight games.

A glorious day in north east China today, about 27 degrees, light cloud and little wind, heaps of pollution and crazy traffic. Normal. The foreigner Olympics ended today so there is a week for the body to recover. Hallelujah. Medal presentations at a Korean restaurant and seeing I won gold in the basketball, bronze in the soccer and silver in the tennis and cricket I just have to be there so the review is just a short version but I am sure you will excuse me.

We are into the second half of the season and the previews are going along okay.

 St Kilda 12.9.81 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

A game played between a couple of out of form teams and neither team would take a lot of confidence out of the match. That result just about finishes off the Bullies for a finals appearance and the Saints might beat enough middle of the road teams to make an elimination final.

 West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Adelaide 10.7.67

The scoring in this game was all at one end, possibly due to a strong breeze favouring that end goal.  19 of the 25 goals were kicked at the scoring end. The Eagles progression continues very nicely towards a final appearance after the wooden spoon last season and Adelaide will have an early finish to the season. 

North Melbourne 18.14.122 defeated Gold Coast Suns 9.9.63

North was ahead by 7 goals at the end of the first quarter and about the same at half time. That's almost an impossible margin to overcome for most teams let alone a team as new to the game as the Gold Coast Suns although having said that they did it once already to Port Adelaide. Harvey celebrated a milestone game and the Roos were never headed and finished 10 goal winners. Expected. 

Geelong 13.10.88 defeated Hawthorn 13.5.83

It was amazing to see the Hawks hold the Cats to just 4 points in the 3^rd quarter after both teams had kicked so many goals in the first half. But that feat was overshadowed in the final quarter when the Cats held Hawthorn scoreless in the last! How is that possible in a game of football with two skilled teams? 19 goals kicked in the first half and just 7 goals in the second half. Great game. Well tipped. 

Carlton 19.10.114 defeated Brisbane 9.9.63

The Blues were never headed by the Lions and by three quarter time they had worked up minimum sweat to have a 10 goal lead, the margin being the same at the end of the game. Walker kicked 5 to add to his 6 from the previous week. Welcome back to Kreuzer as well.  

Sydney 9.21. 75 defeated Richmond 9.11.65

The Swans continue to win the tight games, a bit like Geelong. They came from behind in the last quarter and got themselves about 4 goals in front before the rain pelted down drowning any hope of a Richmond revival which was gaining momentum in the last few minutes.

 Fremantle 15.8.98 defeated Essendon 9.10.64

The Dockers had this game won by the end of the first quarter and at one stage in the third quarter they were a point shy of a 10 goal lead. Fremantle was able to coast in the last quarter allowing the Bombers a few complimentary goals and some respectability. The early rampaging Essendon form is beginning to wilt a little so it will be interesting to see how they finish the second half of the season. Fremantle consolidated in the nick of time. 

Collingwood 19.15.129 defeated Melbourne 6.5.41

The Magpie machine was at its awesome best as they steamrolled Melbourne who managed a total game score that was 2 goals less than Collingwood kicked in the final quarter! Cloke had 5 up to half time and if the Pies missed Dane Swan and Dale Thomas it wasn't noticeable.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 12

AFL Preview Round 12

 

I barely survived the Dragon Boat Racing Festival day for two reasons. Firstly the early morning ride, a distance of about 12kms, 24 kms return, finished at some enormous lake but the mosquitoes were in such numbers it was impossible to do a lot. Then again there was really nothing to do there either after we had eaten our traditional zongzi (sticky rice with a sweet fruit inside all wrapped in a leaf and tied with stringy plant), hard boiled eggs, fish and rice porridge. The whole Daqing area is afloat on oil but also is part of huge expanses of wetlands, lakes, man made rivers and plenty of casual water, all perfect breeding grounds for the beloved mosquito. I have never in my life experienced anything like it. No Aeroguard either although I reckon this breed would have eaten the stuff. Secondly the Olympics. I was entered into the 100 metre dash as part of a team and finished a creditable 6^th (in a field of 6) but got a hammy twinge as a result. Then horror of all horrors I was in the football team. Soccer! Yep I had to play soccer. From that game I suffered a calf strain and did a real dramatic swan dive to gain some sort of sympathy from the ref but to no avail. I eventually had to play 4 games in a round robin style tournament and actually kicked 3 goals with the team finishing in bronze medal position. While writing this preview the body is still wracked in agonising pain, every muscle hurting, even when I type on the laptop!! While there is no early morning bike ride next week the Olympics continues with basketball, tennis, volleyball and certain death!

Last week 6 / 8. Should have been 7. Never mind. 62/85 = 72.9%

 

St Kilda V Western Bulldogs at Etihad Friday Night

Tipsters will have to figure out just which of these two teams has gone further backwards from last year. Once you have that worked out the selection should be easy. The Saints and the Bulldogs have both been woeful in some games so it's a matter of least woeful wins. Or a draw? Some of the stars of the game like Reiwoldt for the Saints and Lake for the Bulldogs are having very average seasons as well. Is the problem just form slump with these two teams or has it been something deeper. Sure has the fans confused I'm sure. Which team can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

St Kilda by 12

 

Adelaide V West Coast Eagles at AAMI Saturday

The only thing that will stop the Eagles winning this game will be one of those amazing form turn arounds by Adelaide and it's a possibility that such an event is scheduled shortly. Eventually tipping form will pay dividends so you have to stick with it. Adelaide defeated the Eagles at Subiaco in round 15 last year so maybe it's time the Eagles reversed the result. Cox is having a great year so West Coast should win the stoppages and Cox is being ably supported by LeCras and Priddis. If the Eagles can stop Tippett up forward they should win.

West Coast by 22

 

Gold Coast V North Melbourne Saturday Night

The Suns acquitted themselves well against the Eagles last week but then so did North against the Crows. It will be interesting to see if Gold Coast can give the Roos a run for their money as they seem to be able to really push the middle of the road teams. It's still too hard to actually go out on a limb and tip them. Harvey breaks the North Melbourne playing record held by Archer with his 312^th game. Is it enough to drive North to another win? The Swallow brothers face each other as well. Don't discount the Gold Coast for that extra possible point.

North Melbourne by 18

 

Geelong V Hawthorn at the MCG Saturday night

This is certainly a game of blockbuster proportions and the Cats have been able to beat the Hawks every time since being beaten in that grand final. For the Hawks to win Buddy has to play to give them that edge. The Cats are due for a loss, might as well make it this week and get it out of the way. Actually on a rethink Geelong always seems to have that experience required to win the tight games. They have shown that a number of times already this season. The Hawks can ill afford slow starts or for them to go to sleep in a quarter. Geelong can be ruthless if allowed to.

Geelong by 16

 

Carlton V Brisbane Lions at Etihad Sunday

The Blues are going very nicely thank you and the possible return of Kruezer would be a bonus not only for this game but for their preliminary final chances as well. Brisbane played a shocker of a first half last week so they will come out firing early. Carlton should be able to absorb the shock and go on to win. The Lions have lost Merrett for almost the rest of the season. I cannot see Carlton conceding a pencilled in win at this stage of the competition. They got a fright from lowly Port Adelaide last week before flexing their footy muscle and they won't want to do that again.

Carlton by 33

 

Sydney V Richmond at the SCG Sunday

The Tigers are coming off a bye and that stat is starting to gather realistic momentum. On top of that we see the Swans just keep on winning these games against the middle of the road teams. The game is at home for them and that's another reason to tip them against the Tigers although the Swans are playing better away from home at the moment. Richmond is a couple of points out of the top 8 and if ever they needed an incentive to win then that would be it. It might be enough but their form is a bit inconsistent.

Sydney by 19

 

Fremantle V Essendon at Subiaco Sunday

Both teams lost their last game with Freo being completely over run in the last quarter against the Hawks and Essendon getting a nice touch up by Melbourne. Based on form both teams should lose but maybe the fact that the game is at Subiaco might be enough to swing the result Fremantle's way. Not convinced. Hird might like his team to help him celebrate his inclusion in the AFL Hall of Fame but I doubt personal accolades like that are team drivers. The Bomber will want to avenge an unexpected loss to the Tigers as well as the one to Melbourne. Is the Essendon form dropping off? The Fremantle form certainly has dropped off and the gap Sandilands leaves is a big one – over 2 metres actually.

Fremantle by 9

 

Melbourne V Collingwood at the MCG Monday

The Queen's birthday game between these old rivals will bring a nice crowd again. It helps even things out a bit in that Melbourne seems to have found it's mojo again and the Pies are having a few injury problems as well as losing Thomas for a week due to suspension. In addition Beams is out injured and Swan has been sent to high altitude recovery in Arizona, all exclusions that will test the depth of the Pies. Even last season the Demons served it up to Collingwood twice and there is no doubt that this game will be close as well. Hard to pick against the Pies based on consistency.

Collingwood by 34

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[AFL-Review] Round 11

AFL Review Round 11

 

Dragon Boat Racing Day in China on Monday(Duanwu Jie). It means that you have to rise very early and make your way to special fields or areas where a certain plant grows. You pour water over the plant and pick some to take home. The plant wards off evil spirits and guarantees you good health. You keep the plant at home and the fragrance works to keep you healthy. You are encouraged to walk as much as possible which also assists your well being. The ying and yang of China. Fascinating. Means an early night tonight and a 3am rise tomorrow. Sun is up about 4.15am anyway and we pedal for about an hour to reach the destination. Should be knackered by about 8am just in time to join in on the FO (Foreigner Olympics) we hold here every year. They don't play footy as part of the games. If I introduce it next year I will win gold!!

Oh yeah. 6 from 8 in the tipping.

 

Melbourne 15.11.101 defeated Essendon 10.8.68

It's results like this that defy reason and logic and give AFL footy tipping a bad name. I guess we will have to put some credence in this playing poorly after a bye statistic that has been circulating in footy columns. Some people might refer to this as an upset but to me it's an insult to form.

 

Geelong 23.10.148 defeated the Western Bulldogs 13.9.87

The game was well and truly over by half time when Geelong held a 50 point lead. Somehow the Bulldogs, who had kicked only 6 goals to three quarter time, booted 7 goals in the last quarter. Providing the goal umpires at both ends with a bit of work the Cats kicked 6 themselves in a last quarter avalanche of 13 goals.

 

West Coast Eagles 13.7.85 defeated the Gold Coast Suns 10.7.67

Half way through the opening quarter the scoreboard was looking ugly for the Suns as the Eagles piled on 6 quick goals. But Gold Coast, celebrating Ablett's 200^th game, relentlessly kept at West Coast and in a tight last quarter the Eagles held the Suns at bay by only 3 goals.

 

Collingwood 16.12.108 defeated St Kilda 7.9.51

As previewed the game was a repeat of the 2^nd Grand Final from last year and while the game was pretty tight in the first half once the Pies stepped up that extra gear they were far too good for the Saints.

 

Sydney Swans 17.14.116 defeated Brisbane 7.9.51

The game had an almost identical score line to the Collingwood versus St Kilda game except the Swans did all their scoring in the first half and led by 12 goals at that stage extinguishing any hope that Brisbane might make a close game of it.

 

Hawthorn 17.9.111 defeated Fremantle 13.11.89

Rioli kept the Hawks in the game in the first half as he substituted for the missing Buddy. At the start of the last quarter the Dockers had a 4 goal break kicking the first of that quarter. From that point it was all Hawthorn as they finally found their A game and kicked 8 unanswered goals to win by a comfortable margin albeit a little flattering.

 

North Melbourne 18.7.115 defeated Adelaide 10.8.68

The Roos maintained a healthy 4 goal margin in the first half then kicked away again in the second half doubling that margin. North led all day and any thoughts about this game being close were snuffed out in the first quarter. North looked better, played better, finished better. No finals for Adelaide this year.

 

Carlton 16.15.111 defeated Port Adelaide 7.7.49

How is that Port can start games like this consistently? Then they fall in a hole. At half time they were ahead. In a game of football the ball moves quickly from end to end but we still have a situation where a team actually doesn't score in a whole quarter of footy? Carlton completely dominated this game after half time kicking 11 goals to the Power's 2 and keeping the Port scoreless in the final quarter.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 11

AFL Preview Round 11

 

Last week 5/8 but a correction to the previous week in which I gave myself 5 when I actually did score 6 gives me 56/77 = 72.7%!!

This little place in which I am working in north east China does not have a problem about spending money on sports stadiums, unlike, say, Perth, who have been debating the expenditure of a mere billion dollars to upgrade facilities to cater for the two Aussie rules teams there, West Coast Eagles and Fremantle Dockers. By the way, as I am teaching English maybe I should be using the plural of stadium as stadia…then again…… Anyway, the city of XinCun is building another stadium similar to the bird's cage concept built for the Beijing Olympics. That in itself may not be news to you but in an area that has a population of just over 2 million there already exists 2 multimillion dollar stadiums, one in Yixi, just a few kilometres from XinCun and another in Ranghulu a similar distance in the other direction. Again, that may not be news to you but if I told you that NEITHER of the venues is ever used you would have to start scratching your collective heads right? There was a rumour that Daqing would field a footy team (and I use the term 'footy' here loosely) so based on the rumour the government in the area, which is awash with oil by the way, built a grand stadium that seats about 50,000 I think. The one in Yixi is an open arena but the one being built now in XinCun will be enclosed in glass or something like Etihad but without the option of opening the roof. That's a better idea than an open stadium considering the winter temperature here ranges from -39 to -25 resulting in the play area of the Yixi stadium being a sheet of solid ice for at least 4 months of the year and impossibly cold for another 3 months. We foreigners here just wonder about why there are so many grand places to play sport but nobody playing them. Totally empty, vacant, unused stadiums!! Western Australia just needs to discover oil under the ground in Perth and allow oil pumps to be installed everywhere and anywhere to help finance a whole range of public sporting venues for the population including a purpose built AFL stadium! Start drilling now people!

 

The AFL season is almost half over and as expected the middle range of teams are still madly jostling for position with unpredictable form changes. Geelong, Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn will play finals. You can raffle the rest.

 

Essendon V Melbourne at the MCG Friday night

The Bombers are coming off the bye and the Demons are coming off another hiding. Form has been fairly consistent with Essendon. Can't say the same for Melbourne. Demon's coach Bailey is under the pump no doubt and he has made wholesale changes with some welcome returns to the side from injury and suspension. The Bombers also get back Watson. The surprising great form of Essendon is as surprising as the lack of continuation of last year's form by Melbourne.

Essendon by 29

 

Geelong V Western Bulldogs at Skilled Stadium Saturday

Not only are the Bulldogs playing poorly they get to meet Geelong at the Cats' home ground. There are far more problems at the Western Bulldogs than at Geelong where things are purring along nicely with no losses in the first 10 rounds. Make that no losses in the first 11. The Bullies have not won at this venue since Noah was a boy and it would take just that, a form change of biblical proportions for them to make history.

Geelong by 33

 

West Coast Eagles V Gold Coast Suns Saturday

After the reality check to the Eagles delivered by Collingwood last week it will be the turn of the Suns to see how hard that road trip west really is. The form of West Coast should be good enough to keep the Gold Coast on the bottom. The Suns have amazed us all with two wins already but their inconsistency has meant a win or a thrashing. Could be the latter this week.

West Coast by 52

 

Collingwood V St Kilda at the MCG Saturday

Supporters of both Collingwood and St Kilda should not expect a repeat of the first grand final played last year between these two teams. However, it is reasonable to assume that the result might be a bit closer to the score of the second grand final they played. The Saints showed some reasonable form over the past two weeks but this is a whole different ball game. I am not so sure that bitter Grand Final memories for St Kilda will be a strong enough motivating factor to beat the Pies. Collingwood can have Dane Swan playing below his best and have Thomas step up. They can lose Ben Johnson to injury and find a surprisingly ready replacement with Leon Davis. Depth of the list and a small injury list can do wonders for team confidence.

Collingwood by 28

 

Brisbane Lions V Sydney at the Gabba Saturday night

The Swans scraped home by the barest margin last week against the Roos and the Lions gave the Crows a good old fashioned beating at AAMI, not an easy task for some other teams this season so far. Can the Lions string together 3 consecutive wins and arrest a horror start they have had this year? Sydney seems to like close games and this one will be no exception. Get somebodyin the Brisbane team to stop the effectiveness of Goodes and I guarantee  victory.

Brisbane by 6

 

Hawthorn V Fremantle at the MCG Sunday

Lots of injuries and meeting one of the better teams in the competition means Fremantle is in danger of another loss. Add to those reasons another is that the game is at the MCG and I doubt there will be a lot of money on the Dockers to win this one. My money is going on the Hawks. Hodge back to great form and it will be a challenge for MacPharlin to hold Buddy to less than 4. I don't think that even putting Sandilands back into the team would help Freo.

Hawthorn by 41

 

North Melbourne V Adelaide at Etihad Sunday

Neither team to make the finals, neither team winning many games, both teams filled with youth and inexperience, neither team filled with a lot of confidence. It all makes for a recipe for a close game and with the season looking like a record for draws this match might test the statistics again. It's not good tipping to predict a draw so I go for North in a close one but a result of little interest to anybody other than supporters.

North Melbourne 3

 

Port Adelaide V Carlton at AAMI Sunday

As good as the Power was last week winning unexpectedly against the vastly improved Tigers there is no doubt they will find this a much tougher proposition. As a matter of fact, make that impossible. Carlton is surely top four material and they have beaten the Power at AAMI before. Who does Port have to contain Judd and Murphy? Carlton has a bad habit of allowing these games to be too close at times but even if they opt for a slow start they should win comfortably.

Carlton by 42

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