[AFL-Review] Round 10

AFL Review Round 10

 

Carlton 13.15.93 defeated Melbourne 6.10 .46

Well it might have been a scrappy game but the Blues did a workmanlike job on the Demons and in anybody's language the score line indicates a hiding. Judd seems to be heading for another Brownlow and it's obvious that what he does gets noticed by the umpires. Where to for Melbourne from here? They seemed to be heading in the right direction last year but it looks like they have fallen off this season which may be due to injuries. Pre-season the rumour was that Carlton might challenge for a premiership within 5 years but at this stage they lack some class players through the spine. They are certainly top 4 material. Dean Bailey might be in his last year for Melbourne and I feel that Jimmy Stynes will never live to see them play finals. The Demons face Essendon coming off a bye and a loss to Richmond and Carlton will kill Port Adelaide next week.

 

Sydney 10.12.72 defeated North Melbourne 9.17.71

It was a close game and just the point separating the teams at the final siren. North had the ball in their forward line for the last 3 minutes and attempted to score even a point but the Swans held firm and a Grundy mark in the last 10 seconds was enough. Scott Thompson had the crowd and the commentators in raptures as he kicked 2 vital goals for the Kangaroos in the game and he was playing at full back. Not often that a full forward from a team can show the statistic of his fullback kicking 2 goals. Seems the Swans know how to win these tight games and I am sure that the Roos will not be happy with a 9.17 scoreline that shows 4 more shots on goal than Sydney. North plays Adelaide next week and Sydney meets Brisbane at the Gabba.

 

St Kilda  15.12.102 defeated Fremantle 7.14.46

The game was virtually over at half time when the Saints had a 45 point lead. That was almost the same margin as at the end of the game. St Kilda lost Goddard early with what looked like a serious injury and then lost Dempster who was knocked unconscious late in the game. Two wins in a row for the Saints helps their finals cause a lot better than this Fremantle loss does for their final hopes. Early in the 3^rd quarter the Saints were 10 goals ahead due to Schneider booting 3 goals and Montagna putting in a great game winning mostly contested possessions. Ex Freo player Peake kicked 3 goals for the Saints and Schneider finished with 4. It was a dirty day for Fremantle. St Kilda will know whether they are back in the game when they play Collingwood next week and unfortunately Fremantle face a very good Hawthorn.

 

Geelong 21.13.139 defeated Gold Coast 10.13.73

At half time the Suns were ahead so it was a rather slow start for the Cats. But after half time Geelong kicked 13 goals to 1 by the Gold Coast which pretty well covers the final margin. The tip was a 99 point margin so just turn it upside down and you have it. Steve Johnson kicked 7 for the Cats, 4 of them in a dominant 3^rd quarter and Podsiadly contributed 4. Ablett was unstoppable against his old club in the 1^st quarter but obviously as the Suns were overrun so did the influence of Ablett lessen. Bartel and Selwood were again prominent for the Cats and ex rugby convert Karmichael Hunt even kicked a goal for Gold Coast. The Cats play the Western Bulldogs next week and Gold Coast fly to the other coast to play West Coast. Coast to coast footy right?

 

Port Adelaide 13.11.89 defeated Richmond 10.14.74

Well I hope somebody swabbed the Tigers after last week's win against Essendon or at least both Richmond and Port Adelaide get swabbed after this game. Results like this make tipping almost impossible. Enough said! The conditions as usual in Darwin were humid making the ball slippery but both teams had to contend with that and Port seemed to do it better. Gray booted 4 for the Power and Schultz 3 while for Richmond Tiger forward Reiwoldt, held for most of the game, kicked 3, two of them late in the game when the result was beyond doubt. The Tigers have a bye next week.

 

Brisbane 15.11.101 defeated Adelaide 8.13.61

Two wins in a row for the Lions so you would have to say that the return of Brown has had a major influence on Brisbane. I doubt Adelaide would have thought they could lose this game but lose it they did and were really hammered in the second half. Brisbane is off the bottom of the ladder. McGrath was the main instigator for the Lions with 4 goals for the game but kicked 3 in the second quarter to help the Lions to a half time lead. The Crows succumbed meekly to Brisbane as they did against Collingwood the week before. Watch out next week when they play North because they will probably turn the form around again! Frustrating.

 

 

Collingwood 16.9.105 defeated West Coast 7.10.52

A competitive first quarter even though the Pies led but from that point Collingwood proved to be far too good. The only interest in the final quarter was whether the Eagles could kick one more goal to equal or win the quarter as the Pies have lost only one last quarter in the season so far. They didn't! West Coast now knows just where they are in respect to their improvement. Thomas was brilliant for the Pies taking a screamer and kicking a possible goal of the year from the boundary. I can't say Collingwood was pretty good because Mick does not like the word 'pretty'. It was a big loss for West Coast who would have had game confidence after their spanking of the Western Bulldogs last week. They have the chance next week of resurrecting the loss when they play Gold Coast at Subiaco. If the Magpies can stay injury free they will certainly be there at the end.

 

Hawthorn 13.13.91 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.8.62

The Western Bulldogs never looked like winning this game. Hawthorn looks very good and they currently hold 3^rd position on the ladder. The Bulldogs are really gone this season and need some spark to get them into the finals. Can the Hawks repeat their 2008 success? The fragility they showed in earlier rounds seems to be gone. Still many games to go. Hodge is coming back into frightening form even kicking 2 goals while playing across the back line. Giansiracusa played his 200^th and was one of the best for the Bulldogs who never gave up but were just outclassed.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 10

AFL Preview Round 10

 

Last week 5 /8 = 50/69 (72.5%)

By Saturday night when I had tipped 4 from 5 I thought 6 or 7 was a sure thing. Both WA teams were tipped incorrectly which didn't help and an underestimation of Hawthorn sealed the score at 5. But it has been difficult to gauge the form of some of the teams. Geelong and Collingwood look like good prospects to pick to win each week. Port Adelaide can be picked to lose every week. Essendon, Carlton, West Coast, Hawthorn and perhaps Fremantle are showing some consistency and the rest? Figure it out. When these middle of the road teams play each other the result really can go either way. This round there are a couple of games like that so it gets down to the flip of a coin or picking by gut feeling. After last week I might leave the gut feeling picks out of the equation. Good luck.

 

Melbourne V Carlton at the MCG Friday night

The Blues have really been consistent losing only to the top 2 teams. Can't say the same for the Demons and on that basis it's difficult to tip them with confidence in this game.

Carlton by 33

 

North Melbourne V Sydney at Etihad Saturday

Well there is not a lot in this game with both teams being somewhere about the middle in performance. If North can play well at this ground they will push Sydney to the edge. While I think another draw might be a reasonable tip I'll put my hand up for North to come back from a disappointing loss to the Lions.

North Melbourne by 12

 

Fremantle V St Kilda at Subiaco Saturday

I can't get my head around tipping Freo against supposedly better teams allowing for the stupidity of last week's selection against Port of course. St Kilda look fragile this season but it was a good win last week. No Sandilands for Freo to add to their injury woes. Can they win without him? There are not many options for Fremantle who can stand in for the big guy. I haven't got a Fremantle tip right yet so why start now.

St Kilda by 15

 

Gold Coast Suns V Geelong at Metricon Saturday night

This will be a nice introduction to the use of the new Suns ground on the Gold Coast. Let's see if the new, electronic  scoreboard has been tested to register 200 points for a side.

Geelong by 99

 

Richmond V Port Adelaide in Darwin Saturday night

The Power can thank their lucky stars that the game is not being played in Melbourne where they would be lucky to get away with an 80 point margin. In Darwin the heat might slow the Tigers down a little at the end so we will compensate the point difference to allow.

Richmond by 50

 

Adelaide V Brisbane Lions at AAMI Sunday

This is one of the more difficult games to tip seeing the Lions won last week to celebrate the return of their captain Brown. The Crows put up a great effort against the Pies last week as well but got killed in the last quarter. They should rally at home to beat Brisbane.

Adelaide by 20

 

Collingwood V West Coast at the MCG Sunday

Collingwood kicked 11 goals in the last quarter in their match against Adelaide last week and the Eagles booted 10 goals in the last quarter against the Bulldogs. With that sort of form you would have to give West Coast a chance wouldn't you? No.

Colingwood by 38

 

Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn at Etihad Sunday

Picking teams on form this season has been disastrous for tipsters but you have to be crazy to pick the Bulldogs to win this.

Hawthorn by 29

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[AFL-Review] Round 9

AFL Review Round 9

 Geelong 15.12.102 defeated Carlton 14.16.100

As predicted there was really nothing in this game and had Warnock kicked truly the result would have gone Carlton's way. Geelong survived another close one. That's two in a row. When players have the outcome of a game in their hands with almost the last kick it's hard to blame them for the loss of the game. The Blues had almost double the inside 50's to Geelong in the final quarter and could not post a winning score. That's footy. Selwood continues his stellar step up for the Cats after the loss of Ablett and the usual good players for Carlton like Murphy, Simpson and Gibbs were prominent.

 

St Kilda 16.10.106 defeated Melbourne 13.8.86

The Saints finally got themselves a win and maybe this is the start of a more positive half of the season for them. However, the game was tight as expected and it wasn't until late in the match that Melbourne really  lost. Lee Montagna was welcomed back into the Saints fold with an almost best on ground performance and Reiwoldt and Milne kicked 3 each for St Kilda. It's a bit difficult for tipsters to find logic in results that see Adelaide defeat the Saints, Melbourne thrash Adelaide and then St Kilda beats Melbourne. Too hard.

 

Fremantle 21.16.142 defeated Port Adelaide 14.6.90

Well if you're going to get a tip wrong you might as well be 12 goals out and do it in style. So much for going by gut feelings.  Another dismal underestimation of Fremantle. Port sucks. Gray and Schultz kicked 3 goals each for Port and Kepler Bradley continues to be a very useful utility for the Dockers kicking 3 goals as well as his efforts around the ground. Port coach Primus was critical of his players saying they just weren't up to AFL standard – harsh. Support for the Power must also be a worry because only about 17,000 turned up to watch the game and even at their worst Fremantle was able to draw a reasonable crowd. There will be some pain before gain for Port. Freo will make the finals especially when they start getting some of their first line players back from injury.

 

Brisbane 10.13.73 defeated North Melbourne

Who said that one man doesn't make a difference to a team? Brown has come back to the Lions and kicked 4 goals. It took most of the game but the Lions finally put their nose in front in the last quarter and held on to win. Brown kicked those goals in the second half when the game needed to be won. I can't see either of these teams playing finals this season.

 

Richmond 16.9.105 defeated Essendon 13.11.89

It was a big crowd and a big game with the Tigers putting in a winning 3^rd quarter during which they kicked 7 goals to 3 by the Bombers in front of an 80,000 plus crowd. Essendon just could not make up that deficit in the last quarter. It certainly notched up a defining win for the young Richmond side and provided enough promise to make the supporters expect a finals appearance this year. The Bombers were not disgraced. Listening to the game the lead changed a numerous number of times and not until late in the 3^rd stanza did the Tigers give themselves a bit of breathing space. Cotchin continues his fine form for Richmond and young Heppel is certainly a star in the making for the Bombers showing fine skills in his first year. Look out next year when Essendon and Richmond players have another year of games under their belts.

 

Collingwood 20.15.135 defeated Adelaide 14.8.92

Adelaide snatched defeat from victory. Basically the Pies reversed a 30 point deficit and kicked an avalanche of goals in the second half. Collingwood kicked 11 goals in the last quarter and won by 43 points. Lopsided final score considering the Pies didn't wrest back the lead until halfway through the final quarter!! It was a different Pies side that came out after half time and kicked 7 goals to 4 but that was just a mild harbinger for what was to come in the last quarter. Thomas was irresistible for Collingwood, particularly in that second half and it looks like Krakouer has taken the mark of the year going by the comments made on the radio. Players that were down for the Magpies in the first half certainly came to life in the second. The young Adelaide side really deserved to win if a game can be decided in three and half quarters. Thompson was a standout for the Crows and they have a new young player in Sloane whose skill and composure belied his experience. Malthouse got it right in his after match comment this time: Footy is a bizarre game when a team can kick just 2 goals in a half then 18 goals in the second half. Yup.

 

Hawthorn 15.16.106defeated Sydney 8.12.60

That's a very good win to the Hawks as their victories at that ground have been few and far between. The loss puts the Swans back amongst the ruck and the win for Hawthorn gets them further into the top 8. The next few games should see some firming of ladder positions for the top 6. This was Dreamtime weekend and indigenous players throughout the AFL provided some magic none more match winning than Buddy's 6 goals against the Swans. On top of the goals he had 28 possessions and took 9 marks. Shiels, Birchall and Hodge were also prominent for the Hawks. Maintaining the indigenous theme Goodes was the best for Sydney.

 

West Coast 26.19.175 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.4.52

Oops! I missed listening to the game and that scoreline is unbelievable. 10 goals the Eagles kicked in the last quarter to no score at all by the Bulldogs!! A 123 point victory? Tipsters might have picked West Coast….. but the margin? Kennedy kicked 10 goals for the Eagles and he was joined for best on ground honours by Shuey and LeCras. Let's face it, when you win by 123 points most, if not all, of the team has played pretty well. Last week the Bulldogs kicked about 19 goals but this week could manage just 8. The Western Bulldogs have major problems and the West Coast Eagles are on the up.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 9

AFL Preview Round 9

 

RIP Bobby Davis!!

Was it that many years ago that I used to watch the Footy Show on channel 7 with Bob Davis, Lou Richards and Jack Dyer? Only Lou 'the lip' left now of that trio who were all controlled, sort of, by Ron Casey. For us young footy followers it was a must watch show and of course the Sunday footy show with the handball and the accurate kicking competitions, the scores, the ladder and the basket full of pies (Four 'n' Twenty of course)and sausage smallgoods (was that Watsonia? Can't remember) hamper for the players that came on to be interviewed. Bobby was a real character that's for sure as, of course, was Jack and Lou. Lovable larrikins. Most of us played footy on Saturday at the same time the VFL games were being played so it was our chance to catch up with the latest football news especially if we had missed the Sporting Globe late Saturday edition.

There are still a few footy talk shows on the box but they have lost some impact because games are now played over a number of days and the show cannot give a complete summary of the round. Then of course there is channel 9's Footy Show. As bad as that program is I have to admit it's a lot better than anything I have seen on TV in China unless you're into dating shows. Admittedly there is a language barrier to overcome but methinks that there will be little to capture my interest after I master Mandarin.

Last week 6/8 = 45/61 (73.8%) However I am tempted to take the extra point for the disallowed Collingwood goal kicked by Pendlebury which would have made my tip correct to say nothing of making a few thousand Pies supporters happy. The inconclusive form being shown by some teams is causing concern when placing your tips and it is no better this week. Some of these games can go either way and it's a matter of pure luck and nil science or logic when making some of these selections. Good luck.

 

Carlton V Geelong at Etihad Friday night

This is shaping to be a very interesting game with the Cats coming off a high as a result of pipping the Pies last week and the Blues coming off a bye which seems to be having an adverse affect on teams according to stats. Could there be an upset here or will Geelong do it for Bobby Davis? There is still some doubt about Carlton's position in the top 4 but they have won a couple of games that have mattered. Winning this one will certainly make that top 4 dream a closer reality. However, Geelong will be a hard nut for the Blues to crack. If they put in four good quarters Carlton will come close.

Geelong by 20

 

St Kilda V Melbourne At Etihad Saturday

Tipping the winner of this game is best solved by flipping a coin. Impossible to pick a winner on form so I am opting to simply pick the better team overall and it came up tails. If you follow either team don't get disillusioned if one is behind by 5 or 6 goals at the end of the first quarter. Do be afraid, very afraid, if one is winning by that margin at the end of the first quarter. This is also another bad habit they have and a position from which they are likely to lose the game. It's hard to figure the Saints as being premiership runners up last year and to have fallen to this low level so quickly. If they want to get started this season they might as well do it to Melbourne this week.

St Kilda by 21

 

Port Adelaide V Fremantle at AAMI Saturday

The Power might steal this one even considering their abysmal form. This statement is made due to the amazing run of injuries being suffered by Freo who say they have only 25 fit players to pick from. An upset for the home team here is a distinct possibility. I am tipping Port purely on gut feeling so all logic is out the window on this one.

Port Adelaide by 11

 

Brisbane V North Melbourne at the Gabba Saturday night

The game sees the return of Brown for the Lions which will help give them a presence in the forward area but might not necessarily win them the game. North has not got a good record at this venue and a generally poor record playing away this season so far. The Lions have been close so many times that they might just give their fans a bit of joy for the first time this season. A Kangaroo win will put them just outside the 8 and a win to Brisbane will get them onto the road to some sort of recovery. Should be a tight game.

Brisbane by 17

 

Richmond V Essendon at the MCG

These two teams are amongst the big improvers this season and guarantee a good game for the supporters. The Bombers are in the top 4 and the Tigers are knocking on the door of the 8 although last week they let a quarter slip by that eventually lost them the match.  Is it time for Essendon to lose a game? Watson and Hocking out for the Bombers tends to even the balance a little. The Richmond midfield of Cotchin and Martin are doing better than okay and the team is showing less dependence on Reiwoldt up forward although he is still kicking goals and currently still leads the goal kicking. Let's hope the Tigers don't let the Bombers get the jump on them.

Richmond by 12

 

Collingwood V Adelaide at Etihad Sunday

The Collingwood bubble burst last week and if it was not quite a bang it was certainly a pop! They come up against the Crows who are struggling with consistency and field a relatively inexperienced side. If Malthouse can get back to coaching rather than waffling on at press conferences about bread rolls and ears and toes the Pies should win the game. The fact that the AFL came out today and stated that the umpire got it wrong last week in that Pendlebury goal incident won't help Mick's blood pressure either. The Collingwood players will be a bit dirty after that loss to the Cats so they might be a bit more ruthless against Adelaide. If the Crows wilt a bit it will be a massacre.

Collingwood by 42

 

Sydney V Hawthorn at the SCG Sunday

An injury plagued Hawthorn still gave the Saints a decent touch up last week as did the Swans to Port in the second half. This is a difficult away game for Hawthorn who does not have a good record at this venue. Bolton and Goodes are on fire for the Swans so Hawthorn might have to look at nullifying the impact these two have on the contest. The mean backline of Sydney will not make it easy for Buddy to kick many goals. When you add in the possibility that the Hawks might have to blood a couple of new players the equation starts equalling Sydney for the pick.

Sydney by 19

 

West Coast V Western Bulldogs at Subiaco Sunday

The Eagles have improved as much as the Bulldogs have gone backwards this season and the fact that the Bullies are travelling to Perth again after a hard game against the Tigers last week means they might struggle to win this match. The bookies have the Eagles as favourites – maybe they know something. The heat has come off Eagles coach Worsfold as a result of a much more competitive and successful West Coast team so far this season. Cox is back to his best and Priddis is showing that he might make it as an elite centreman after winning the derby medal last week. Still, it was a good win by the Bulldogs last week even when they dozed off for half of the third quarter allowing the Tigers a sniff. Another difficult game to pick but I favour the home team.

West Coast by 8

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[AFL-Review] Round 8

AFL Review Round 8

 

Geelong 8.17.65 defeated Collingwood 9.8.62

It was bound to happen eventually and the Cats stole the show and the points in the big game of the undefeated teams at the MCG. Collingwood's problem is not the disallowed goal near the end of the game, it's the fact that Geelong had 25 scoring shots to 17 in a low scoring game. Something to ponder. Another 80,000 plus crowd at a Collingwood game this year – no wonder the AFL loves them! With just a 3 point margin and a disallowed goal you can be sure that the next time they meet tipsters will have the same problem, just who to pick. The result was not convincing enough to suggest that Geelong will win the next time they meet. Selwood was the best for the Cats and Thomas the best for the Pies. Ottens had an impact on the game which suggests that the absence of Jolly for Collingwood was important. The Cats play another tough one next week against Carlton and the Pies meet Adelaide.

 

North Melbourne 19.10.124 defeated Melbourne 12.11.83

At the end of the first quarter fans would have been saying the Demons by how much. But from the start of the 2^nd quarter it was all the Kangaroos and they over ran a disappointing Melbourne by 41 points. Edwards kicked 6 goals for North. Another amazing form turnaround for tipsters. I agreed with North coach Scott thinking there wasn't a lot between the two teams and with the Trengrove incident and few unexpected injuries the Demons looked fragile coming up against the Kangaroos. North plays a winnable game against Brisbane next week and Melbourne meets the Saints.

 

Adelaide 20.10.130 defeated Gold Coast Suns 9.19.73

Speaking of form turnarounds…….most people expected the Crows to win and it took them a quarter to get going but they retrieved a lot of the percentage they lost in last week's loss to Melbourne. The form of the Gold Coast team is as expected. Lots of losses amongst their few wins. They're doing ok. Ablett played a blinder in a losing side with over 40 touches and kicking 4 goals. Dangerfield booted 6 for the Crows. The win probably doesn't mean a lot for Adelaide considering the opposition so the game next week against Collingwood will be a better test. The Suns will win a couple more games this season, a good result for a new team.

 

Essendon 15.12.102  defeated Brisbane 9.12.66

Another game that was won in the second half. At half time the Lions were a point ahead but inside 50's to that stage were Essendon 37 to Brisbane 17, it's just that Essendon were not making the most of their opportunities. It all came together in the second half of the match leaving the Lions on the bottom of the ladder and the Bombers in the top 4. Zaharakis ignited in the second half with 20 possessions and 4 goals and Adcock and Rich played well for the Lions. We know that Jonathon Brown is a big loss for Brisbane but he won't win them games off his own boot every week. Essendon has a tough game next week against Richmond.

 

Sydney Swans 18.13.121 defeated Port Adelaide 9.5.59

Sydney held a slim 9 point lead at half time but like a couple of other games over the weekend the Swans completely outclassed the Power in the 2^nd half 13 goals to 5 and gave tipsters the expected result. Bolton and Adam Goodes dominated the game for the Swans with Bolton having 33 possessions and 13 tackles and a goal probably getting the Brownlow votes. Port was powerless in the second half making too many mistakes that caused turnovers and resulted in Sydney goals. Sydney plays Hawthorn next week and Port plays Fremantle.

 

Hawthorn 14.15.99 defeated St Kilda 10.9.69

The Saints kicked 5 goals to 1 point in the first quarter then the Hawks kicked 5 goals to 1 point in the second quarter. From half time though it was all Hawthorn who went on to win the game easily. Will the Saints even make the finals? Buddy kicked 5 for the game and Hodge seemed to return to some sort of form for the first time this year. Jordan Lewis for Hawthorn was dominant with 30 possessions. 2 bad injuries to Hawthorn's Hale and Gilham left the Hawks short in the big man department but Roughead played a great game for them contesting the ruck hitouts successfully.

 

Western Bulldogs 23.15.153 defeated Richmond 18.10.118

The Tigers allowed the Bulldogs to dominate the first quarter conceding a 6 goal lead. Richmond is not a good enough team to start so slowly and make up the difference when playing the better teams and so it proved. The Bulldogs will be happy to return to the winning list. Halfway through the 3^rd quarter the Tigers had reduced a 52 point deficit to 12 but the Bulldogs steadied and kicked the next 4 goals. The first quarter deficit was maintained to the end. Gilbee kicked 6 for the Bullies and Minson chipped in with 4. Reiwoldt has maintained his leading Coleman medal position with 4 goals for the Tigers. Maybe it was the presence of the Prime Minister that spurred the Bullies on to a big win.

 

West Coast Eagles 14.12.96 defeated Fremantle 9.9.63

The game was done and dusted by half time and finally West Coast has beaten the Dockers in a Derby. Freo will struggle to play finals this year. The Eagles improvement is looking similar to that of Essendon. Both WA teams are still well in the mix of that middle rung of wanna be's in a race for the top 8. West Coast lost Embley and Kerr in the pre-match warm up and still won the game. Priddis won the Glendinning medal with 27 possessions but Mundy and Fyfe also played as well for Fremantle. Perhaps you can't win a medal if you are in the losing side. West Coast plays the Bulldogs at home next week so they might add to their wins in that game. Fremantle plays Port at AAMI and should win as well.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 8

AFL Preview Round 8

 

Last week 6/8 = 39/53 (73.6%)

I will be missing the coverage of the big match between Collingwood and Geelong on Friday night as  I will be teaching English to 25 or so Chinese petroleum workers. This new contract has put an end to my happy AFL Friday nights. By the time I get home it will be 10.45pm EST. My other classes barely clash with any other fixture so future Friday night games will have to be replayed if they are any good. I was listening to 3AW this morning and there were a lot of complaints about a gas smell in some Melbourne suburbs and my theory is that the open stack they have on the petroleum refinery here in northern China is to blame. It was belching out some very noxious looking fumes most of the day yesterday and the wind direction was pushing that smoke directly over Australia and subsequently the Melbourne metro area. To add to the suspect environment being experienced we had some sort of sand storm blow in from Mongolia overnight giving the whole province an eerie, orange glow. Anything exposed outside was covered in fine, sand particles and even keeping the inside of the living area clean was a waste of time.

The blurred vision resulting from this atmospheric pollution doesn't help with trying to see the tipping this week either as teams provide their supporters with puzzling form week in and week out. To make matter worse, the two teams that have shown consistent form in all 7 rounds so far meet at the MCG making that a difficult result to predict for the opposite reason. All these middle of the road teams are finding it hard to maintain consistency except, of course, the bottom teams who you know you shouldn't tip because they just can't win…..then do.

We are managing a reasonable tipping percentage overall but need a good 7 or 8 to rise above the pack. Conversely a 4 or, heaven forbid, a 3 right now would take 6 weeks of good tipping to overcome. So fingers crossed for some of the harder games which can go either way. Good luck.

 

Geelong V Collingwood at the MCG Friday night

There has already been much written about this clash of the ladder leaders, a certain blockbuster  for the AFL and for the fans. What has changed between these teams from last year? Ablett has left the Cats. Hard to pick against the Pies. Not so sure it will be that close a game either. I was at the prelim final between these two teams last season and it was all Collingwood. If the margin is greater than 6 or 7 goals the Pies will be unbackable for the flag. And no, they don't need a loss to make them stop thinking they are invincible. Are they?

Collingwood by 21

 

North Melbourne V Melbourne at Etihad Saturday

The Demons certainly turned it on last week against the Crows. They should have turned off their Twitter though. Trengrove might get off. North might win this game. The teams, although well apart on the ladder, are not so far apart in on-field talent. Can you smell an upset? Apart from the loss of Trengrove the Demons also lost Grimes and Spencer for the season. Considering that there is little between the teams these losses may be the difference.

North Melbourne by 11

 

Adelaide V Gold Coast Suns at AAMI Saturday

The Suns could win two consecutive games playing Adelaide at AAMI. The Crows have copped a real blast from supporters and press alike in the past week and it might be enough to fire them up. They should win but it won't be easy. Strange as it may seem only percentage separates the teams on the ladder! I think the Crows will bounce back with a vengeance.

Adelaide by 38

 

Brisbane Lions V Essendon at the Gabba Saturday night

We should not be tipping on form considering some of the results during the first third of the season but I am reluctant to offer an upset here by the Lions. I'm not sure what the Lions can do to turn around their season but whatever it is it won't be applied in this game.

Essendon by 31

 

Sydney V Port Adelaide at the SCG Saturday night

The Power might be able to win this game if the Swans mistakenly get dropped by the team bus at the Telstra Stadium in error. Sydney might prefer that the game was played at Telstra because they have not won a game at the SCG yet this season. They will fix that statistic this week.

Sydney by 52

 

Hawthorn V St Kilda at the MCG Sunday

The Saints are starting to get their mojo working a bit more and almost knocked off the Blues last week. All these early losses in the season aren't making life any easier for St Kilda but Hawthorn are far from being a premiership threat either. This could be a really close game. The last time they met it was a draw and as we keep breaking records wouldn't that be a hard one to ever happen again? Two draws in consecutive games?

Hawthorn by 12

 

Western Bulldogs V Richmond

It's a brave man that will pick the Bulldogs to beat any up and coming team, particularly the Tigers who are looking like a chance for the final 8 – one of the better teams amongst the middle tier group. Not sure what the problem is at the Western Bulldogs but if they don't arrest the slide they will be relegated to finals history like the Saints. The Bullies still have a few outs and one of their best from last year, Lake, is playing in the VFL again this weekend. The Tigers have no injury concerns and not a lot of individual player problems with for either. I'm tipping the Doggies will start their long road back to form with a win here.

Western Bulldogs by 16

 

West Coast V Fremantle at Subiaco Sunday

The dreaded western derby should have the local paper going ballistic. The Eagles have improved significantly from last year while I think Freo are about the same. It's about time the derby in that state was a draw. Maybe the Dockers by a nose. Pavlich continues to play in the centre of the ground but he might be needed back up forward soon. The last quarter fade out by Freo against Richmond last week makes tipping them this week a bit of a risk but the Eagles haven't beaten the Dockers in a derby for some time so maybe there is a psychological barrier. The West Coast losses this season have been honourable. I'm tipping Freo but the game could go either way.

Fremantle by 7

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[AFL-Review] Round 7

AFL Review Round 7

 

Hawthorn 15.14.104 defeated Port Adelaide 10.12.72

It wasn't until the last quarter that Hawthorn got away from the Power who played well enough to keep the game close for a while. Another knee injury for a player – Rodan of Port this time. Buddy was well held but still managed 3 goals.

 

Sydney Swans 10.13.73 defeated Western Bulldogs 10.5.65

Well the game was always going to be difficult one from which to pick the winner. Swans got away in the 3^rd quarter and were then able to hold on in the last as the Doggies came at them. So the Western Bulldogs were second favourites for the flag? Not anymore. Sydney might even finish ahead of them at this rate.

 

Geelong 19.13.127 defeated North Melbourne 9.7.61

Top Cats Kelly, Selwood and Bartel were impossible to stop by North. Almost  100 possessions and 3 goals between them tells a story. As expected North took it up to Geelong for a quarter and a half but skill and experience in the Geelong side started to tell after that. Geelong cruised to a 10 goal win.

 

Richmond 23.10.148 defeated Fremantle 14.15.99

First half of this game was played at a cracking pace and the Dockers were 2 points up at half time. But near the end of the 3^rd quarter the young Tigers kicked late goals and surprisingly Fremantle went down with hardly a whimper in the last. 14 goals to 5 in the second half made it a bad loss for Freo but a very heartening one for the Tigers.

 

Gold Coast Suns 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 17.14.116

What a game of footy!!  Krakaoer for the Suns took the mark of the year then kicked a goal taking his tally to 5 for the night. McGrath kicked 6 goals in the 2^nd half for the Lions. Mercenary Brennan best on ground. For the mathematicians that's a 147 point turnaround by Gold Coast. Tipster nightmares continue as does the nightmares for Michael Voss.

 

Essendon 16.10.106 defeated West Coast Eagles 12.18.90

The Bombers buried West Coast in the 3^rd quarter when they kicked 6 goals to zip. Then the Eagles exacerbated the situation with inaccurate kicking in the last quarter. How can a team go to sleep so badly when at half time they are leading? Prior to that 3^rd quarter the bets would have been on West Coast. Strange game.

 

Melbourne 22.17.149 defeated Adelaide 8.5.53

There's nothing quite like a 96 point win to give a coach some breathing space. Big breaths Bailey!! There's nothing like a 96 point hiding to give a coach that crushing feeling of hopelessness. Get Neil a brown paper bag. The Demons lost by 9 goals last week. The Crows beat St Kilda by 3 goals last week. Can anybody tell me what's going on with consistency and form? Me either but I did tip the Demons.

 

Carlton 11.18.84 defeated St Kilda 12.9.81

The Blues looked like they had the game in the bag a couple of times but when the Saints kicked a swag of goals they actually put themselves 3 points up at the 27 minute mark. A Walker goal for Carlton with about a minute to go gave them back a 3 point lead and that's how it finished. Exciting game for Monday night.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 7

AFL Preview Round 7

 Last week 5/7. Total 33/45 (73.3%)

Apologies for the bad tip I gave you last week of Swans beating Carlton. It almost happened but the tip was probably a long shot in the context of current form. The surprise result for most last week was the win by the Adelaide Crows against the Saints.

Again this week there are some difficult games from which to make selections of confidence as the form of a few teams is a bit up and down.  Bit like the weather in Northern China, highly unpredictable. Or the driving – totally unpredictable! This country is the only one I know where a pedestrian can suffer acute road rage. You can be hit by a car on a zebra crossing (because the local drivers will only make way for zebras I think).  You can be hit by a car walking on the correct side of the road. You can be hit by a car walking on the footpath because vehicles have access to and use the sidewalks when driving. You can be hit by a car crossing an intersection when you have the green walking man. You can be hit by a car walking in the shopping centre car park. You can be hit by a car while standing on an upraised, concrete median strip. You are never safe when you walk anywhere here. You can maintain a reasonable level of fitness just dodging traffic in China. I've dropped 5 kilos but I am a nervous wreck. There's always a downside to keeping fit I think!

One of the definites I can offer you this week is that Collingwood will remain undefeated. Good luck. 

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium Friday Night

There are some funny things happening at AAMI this season but the hilarity of the situation would be lost on the Hawks if they lost this one. The Crows beat Hawthorn here in the 1^st round and Port beat Adelaide at this venue later on. Surely not? No. Rioli hasn't passed a fitness test so that's a bit of a loss for Hawthorn. How many goals will Franklin kick in this game? Six or seven.

Hawthorn by 33 

Western Bulldogs V Sydney in Canberra Saturday

This game is most difficult from which to pick a winner with any certainty. The Bulldogs got a thumping by Collingwood last week albeit in a 15 minute burst and the Bullies did have a few players out. The Swans were beaten by Carlton. Toss of a coin says Western Bulldogs. No reason. But I guess with Jacks out for the Swans and Hudson back for the Dogs the balance teeters in their favour. Not a lot in it though.

Western Bulldogs by 12 

Geelong V North Melbourne at Skilled Saturday

It's hard to see the unbeaten Cats give up their run in this game although North won convincingly last week. The problem with that win was that the opposition was only Port Adelaide. They will give Geelong a scare early but won't be able to sustain the pace and skill. It's rather a unique situation in the coaching boxes with the Scott twins against each other. Are all those studies they did with twins and the way in which they can mentally communicate with each other have any basis in fact? It would be a bit eerie to see Chris Scott make a strategic on field change for the Cats and have Brad counter the move almost immediately because he knew what his twin was thinking. There's a great scientific opportunity going begging here and the AFL should go with it. I mean if there's a quid in it of course.

Geelong by 31 

Richmond V Fremantle at the MCG Saturday night

Here's another game that can go either way. Every time I pick Freo to lose they win. When I picked them to win they lost against Geelong. Coming off a bye should help but the experts are saying the players switch off mentally the week after a bye???? The young Tigers can win this one at home. Dustin Martin is having a great impact in the centre of the ground for the Tigers and along with Foley they could take away the advantage that Freo's Sandilands has in the hit outs. Pavlich, Fyfe and Mundy are playing well for Fremantle too so the midfield stats should be interesting. The Dockers wanted more playing time at the MCG so here's there chance to get used to the ground.

Richmond by 11 

Gold Coast V Brisbane Lions at the Gabba Saturday Night

Now we have a Queensland Derby which will go the way of other inaugural derbies with the older team usually winning. I can't see a change to that scenario. Brisbane will climb off the bottom of the ladder and Gold Coast will go return to the bottom. Don't expect them to be thrashed by over 100 points though. Mercenaries for the Suns, Brennan and Rischetelli, need to play well again as does Ablett for the Gold Coast to make a reasonable game of this. AFL is a mercenary game these days and players need to make the most of their time in the industry so it will be interesting to see if Western Sydney can make mercenaries of a few more Brisbane players like Simon Black and Jonathon Brown!!

Brisbane by 54 

Essendon V West Coast Eagles at Etihad Sunday

The Bombers come off a huge win against the Suns last week and the Eagles were pretty convincing against the Demons as well so this should be an interesting match. Neither team will have it as easy as last week and this far into the season they are both in the top 8 with 3 wins apiece – good starts to the season for two teams that played so poorly last year. I think the Bombers have improved more than West Coast. The Hird factor is proving all it was touted to be and the pressure by the Essendon board to get James Hird as their coach is paying immediate dividends. The game is a good test for West Coast too who came close to rolling the Hawks in Tassie a couple of weeks ago.

Essendon by 15 

Melbourne V Adelaide at the MCG Sunday

Two totally unpredictable form teams playing off to determine their levels of inconsistency!? The Demons really need to stand up this week at home for their members because these same members are already crying for some coach blood letting. Pitiful one week, powerful  the next. The Crows have beaten Hawthorn and St Kilda, good scalps if you don't look at who has beaten them….like the Power. It's a home team call. While I wouldn't call it one of the Wonders of the World you have to ask why Melbourne continues to struggle with all those premium draft picks playing for them and that's something that certainly has us all wondering.

Melbourne by 16 

St Kilda V Carlton at Etihad on Monday

Why is this game on Monday? I forget. Carlton is showing far more consistent form than the Saints who seem to be in some dreadful post Grand Final year slump. Quite inexplicable. I tipped against the Blues last week, dare I do it again? No, but it could go either way if the Saints can do something about their weak attack. The loss of Lenny Hayes has not helped St Kilda this year but then again the loss of Reiwoldt for most of last season didn't seem to halt their march towards the grand final. There is something else wrong at St Kilda and Carlton will take advantage of that.

Carlton by 19 

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[AFL-Review] Round 6

AFL Review Round 6

 

Oops! Sorry dear readers. I sent you the shortened version of the review in error. Herewith, below, are the true events as they happened. Well, as I heard them in China, like Chinese whispers really where the result is the only real fact passed on, the rest is hearsay.

 

West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Melbourne 6.16.52

A rather insipid display by Melbourne may cause one coach some embarrassment while it provides another with relief. The Demons seem to be in some sort of form limbo and the Eagles continue their bright start to the season. There was, of course, an immediate call for the axing of Bailey as the coach of the Demons and while I doubt that will happen during the season I would be looking at alternate employment if I was him at the end of the year. The result proved to be a mini salvation for Worsfold whose position at the Eagles looked rather tenuous too. Yes, it's rather early to be talking sacking of coaches but what other interest is there in this game? Kerr put in a good game for West Coast but the opposition was average and Cox continues to be a dominant ruckman for the Eagles although Jamar tried his best for the Dees who face Adelaide in their next game. West Coast will be tested against the Bombers next week.

 

Carlton 12.15.87 defeated Sydney 10.11.71

A dirty evening weather wise but lots to like with the win scored by the Blues in heavy conditions. The Swans might consider themselves unlucky with an interchange infringement that came at a crucial time in a close game. The penalty for this infringement is way out of balance for a perceived advantage. Carlton gained a bit of breathing space with that win and the Swans stay lurking amongst the middle tier of teams. Judd turned it on for the Blues and undoubtedly got the umpires' votes and Betts contributed 4 goals, 3 of them when the game was there to be won. Swans play the Bulldogs next week and Carlton meets St Kilda.

 

North Melbourne 18.25.133 defeated Port Adelaide 10.13.73

The woe continues for the Power this season as they make plans for somewhere to display the wooden spoon after a comprehensive hiding by North Melbourne. Shots on goal, inside 50's and tackles for North counted almost double that of Port at the end of the game. North captain Harvey was back into form and North ruckman Goldstein probably got BOG with his fine efforts. Motlop was a shining light for Port when all around them is darkness and he kicked 4 goals. Neither team will win next week either as North plays Geelong and Port plays Hawthorn.

 

Richmond 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 14.14.98

The game was close as expected even though the Lions were held goalless in the 2^nd quarter. They came out and kicked 7 goals in the 3^rd and momentarily took the lead. Richmond two weeks in a row has been able to give their fans winning last quarters. Foley dominated for the Tigers and Martin played another very good game. Reiwoldt slotted 5 goals as is his wont at full forward and Power kicked 4 for the Lions for whom Simon Black was best. The Lions are waiting for the return of their skipper Jonathon Brown and his presence might help get a reasonable Brisbane side over the line in the closer games which at the moment they are losing. The Lions play their new Brisbane brothers the Gold Coast Suns next week so they should register a win and get off the bottom of the ladder. Richmond will have a tough game against Freo albeit the game is at the MCG, but, Fremantle have been travelling well winning both away games this season so far.

 

Adelaide 13.12.90 defeated St Kilda 9.17.71

Somebody tell me what's actually going on with these two sides? Their form is making it impossible to pick them with any confidence week to week. Disappointing Saints and a puzzling Adelaide. Reiwoldt was a loss for the Saints in the last quarter when he was not allowed to play after being knocked out at the end of the third quarter. Would you want to be the Reiwoldt family doctor? Abused by Jack at Richmond and ditto by Nick at St Kilda because you don't allow them to play after concussion. Thompson was best for the Crows and Dal Santo best for the Saints for whom life does not get any easier when they play Carlton next week. Adelaide, with 2 wins, might sneak up the ladder with games against the Demons and the Suns in the next couple of weeks.

 

Essendon 31.11.197 defeated Gold Coast 8.10.58

The Bombers kicked the highest first quarter score in AFL history with 15 goals! The Gold Coast replied with…….one point which is all they had time for. Reimers booted 8 goals and the Bombers had the last kick of the day to make the Essendon score 200 but it was offline. That's about the only sad note for the Bombers. Gold Coast won last week so it was back to harsh reality today. I wonder what Hird said to his players at quarter time. "Righto guys, we can do better than that." ?? Somebody see if there's a tape showing the Essendon coach addressing the team at quarter time. Conversely, what did Bluey McKenna say to his charges at quarter time. "Righto guys, we can still win it from here, remember last week when we came from 40 points down??!!"

 

Collingwood 15.15.105 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

The Bulldogs started with a flourish and led at quarter time. 5 minutes into the last quarter the scores were level after Collingwood had gotten out to a 28 point lead. From that time in the last quarter the Pies kicked 8 unanswered goals and won by that margin – 48 points. 4 goals came from the boot of Leigh Brown an unlikely winner of leading goal kicker for the day. The Bulldogs have won just 2 of their first 5 games so where will they finish this season? Collingwood has a bye then they play Geelong, also undefeated, in a Friday night blockbuster at the 'G'. A convincing win in that game will shorten the premiership odds on the Pies even more and have most teams happy that Collingwood has 2 byes this season.

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[AFL-Review] Round 6

AFL Review Round 6

 

West Coast 15.16.106 defeated Melbourne 6.16.52

A rather insipid display by Melbourne may cause one coach some embarrassment while it provides another with relief. The Demons seem to be in some sort of form limbo and the Eagles continue their bright start to the season.

 

Carlton 12.15.87 defeated Sydney 10.11.71

A dirty evening weather wise but lots to like with the win scored by the Blues in heavy conditions. The Swans might consider themselves unlucky with an interchange infringement that came at a crucial time in a close game. The penalty for this infringement is way out of balance for a perceived advantage. Carlton gained a bit of breathing space with that win and the Swans stay lurking amongst the middle tier of teams.

 

North Melbourne 18.25.133 defeated Port Adelaide 10.13.73

The woe continues for the Power this season as they make plans for somewhere to display the wooden spoon after a comprehensive hiding by North Melbourne. Shots on goal, inside 50's and tackles for North counted almost double that of Port at the end of the game.

 

Richmond 18.16.124 defeated Brisbane Lions 14.14.98

The game was close as expected even though the Lions were held goalless in the 2^nd quarter. They came out and kicked 7 goals in the 3^rd and momentarily took the lead. Richmond two weeks in a row has been able to give their fans winning last quarters.

 

Adelaide 13.12.90 defeated St Kilda 9.17.71

Somebody tell me what's actually going on with these two sides? Their form is making it impossible to pick them with any confidence week to week. Disappointing Saints and a puzzling Adelaide.

 

Essendon 31.11.197 defeated Gold Coast 8.10.58

The Bombers kicked the highest first quarter score in AFL history with 15 goals! The Gold Coast replied with…….one point which is all they had time for. Reimers booted 8 goals and the Bombers had the last kick of the day to make the Essendon score 200 but it was offline. That's about the only sad note for the Bombers. Gold Coast won last week so it was back to harsh reality today.

 

Collingwood 15.15.105 defeated Western Bulldogs 8.9.57

The Bulldogs started with a flourish and led at quarter time. 5 minutes into the last quarter the scores were level after Collingwood had gotten out to a 28 point lead. From that time in the last quarter the Pies kicked 8 unanswered goals and won by that margin – 48 points.