[AFL-Review] Round 10

Review Rd 10

 

Essendon 15.9.99 Defeated Western Bulldogs 14.6.90

 

Friday night football started with an upset as the Bombers clearly outplayed the Bulldogs for 3 quarters. Essendon got a scare when in the final stanza the Bullies threw everything at them but time ran out leaving the Bombers 9 points ahead at the siren. Hall kicked 5 for the Bulldogs so they are getting good value from Bazza but in most cases the delivery was poor as was some of the field kicking by the Bullies. Gumbleton kicked 3 for the Dons who would be pretty happy with their wins against The Bulldogs, the Saints and Carlton but some of the losses then become hard to explain. If Essendon play like they did Friday night for another 5 or 6 games they might sneak into the 8. Not sure where the Western Bulldogs are headed considering they were being touted as premiership material.

 

Geelong 18.13.121 Defeated Melbourne 10.7.67

 

There was nothing unusual about the result. Everything went as planned and as predicted with the Cats dispatching one of the average teams with plenty in reserve. The Demons were outclassed all over the ground but they are in the same league as most other teams who have come up against the Cats. The Dees will have a promising season, the Cats will win the flag. Who is this Podsiadly guy anyway? He kicked 5 and Hawkins 4 for Geelong while Brad Green was the dangerous forward for the Demons.

 

Richmond 10.17.77 Defeated Port Adelaide 3.12.30

 

The Tigers finally scored their first win of the season comfortably beating the Power in atrociously wet conditions at AAMI. There’s talk of Richmond playing in the finals already. Steady guys. Port was woeful. Instead of trying to push the ball forward at all costs Port players consistently tried fancy ball handling in the impossible conditions with obvious results. The win should give the Tigers a bit of heart. The loss for the Power was a bad one. Reiwoldt continued good goal front form with 4 goals ably assisted by dreadlocked Nason for Richmond.

 

Brisbane 13.10.88 Defeated Collingwood 11.14.80

 

Brisbane reversed form to beat the Magpies at the Gabba and bringing up the tippers nightmare of the 3^rd upset of the round. One hopes the Lions are drug tested. Actually one hopes Collingwood is! The Brown Fevola returned to early season form with 8 goals and in contrast Collingwood could not kick a winning score after entering their 50 metre zone 54 times. Thomas played a great game for the Pies and Power played ditto for the Lions. The Pies need to recover quickly after consecutive losses and for Brisbane the win might be the spur they need to get back to some consistent winning form like they had at the start of the season.

 

St Kilda 19.9.123 Defeated Adelaide 12.4.76

 

The Crows have a major last quarter problem. They were in the game right through the 3^rd quarter but fell away badly as the Saints piled on the goals 7 to 1 in the last. Adelaide played two quarters of football, the 2^nd and 3^rd and it looked like they might upset the Saints. Like the good team they are St Kilda just upped the pace in the last and left the Crows in their wake. Milne continued his consistency as a goal sneak but it was Montagna for the Saints who was the unlikely biggest score contributor with 5 goals. Tippett and Dangerfield kicked 3 each for the Crows.

 

Hawthorn 10.19.79 Defeated Sydney 11.11.77

 

Both teams are struggling, a fact that was obvious with the standard of the game. Almost a draw but the Hawks are starting to hope for a resurrection after consecutive wins. Don’t. Hawthorn will lose Buddy again next week for a high bump and it doesn’t look good for a Campbell Brown knee injury. Young Hannebery starred for the Swans with 25 disposals and 3 goals, Goode was just that and Malceski also. Franklin kicked 3 for the Hawks and Lewis was possibly their best player for the day.

 

Carlton 15.15.105 to West Coast 11.10.76

 

The Blues are about a 4 to 5 goal better side than the Eagles. This was evident all day and West Coast never really looked like they could win the game.  They didn’t. Whoosha gave the West Coast supporters the official word after the game that the team would probably not play in the finals this year. Duh. The centre trio for the Blues, Judd, Murphy and Gibbs must have had 100 possessions between them and Judd also kicked 2 goals, O’hAilpin kicked 3. LeCras did very well kicking 5 from a forward pocket for the Eagles and Kennedy continued his good form with 4 goals. The West Coast over possession game is killing them. Isn’t it time for a change to the game plan? Carlton’s form reversal was duly noted.

 

Fremantle 21.13.139 Defeated North Melbourne 11.12.78

 

The Dockers will sit down and watch the video of that 3^rd quarter they played today during which they kicked 10 goals. It was champagne football and with Collingwood’s defeat Freo are sitting clear second on the ladder. The purple frenzy is growing – beware. It is amazing what confidence can do to a team and that’s the way Freo are playing – as if they don’t even think they can lose. At this rate, if their young guys can keep up the intensity for another 12 weeks, Fremantle will finish top 4, Pav will win the Coleman and the Brownlow and Harvey will be given a 10 year contract extension and the keys to the city. Swallow and Thomas were the best for North with the latter kicking 5 goals. Bradley joined Pav with 4 goals as well and probably firmed his place in the team with another good performance.

 

 

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[AFL-Preview] Round 10

Preview Rd 10

I hope many of you took no notice of the previews last week. By late Friday night I had slashed my wrists due to another Magpie failure in the face of a real challenge and contemplated a 7 correct tipping scorecard for the weekend. Not too shabby I thought. By Saturday night I was scratching at the bandages on the wrists to allow the blood to flow free as Fremantle and Melbourne (again) would not lie down to give me some hope. 2 from 5 going into Sunday I was confident we would salvage 5 points for the weekend. Complete form reversals by Adelaide and Hawthorn sent me scurrying for the blade again and at half time, when the Eagles looked like they would account for St Kilda, I was staring at a worst ever tipping result since the AFL started in 1990. Fortunately the Eagles did the usual and surrendered but a 3 from 8 was a disaster. It was a weekend of tipping that is usually won by a know nothing soccer hooligan who joined the comp for fun. Or worse, the round was won by a rugby league follower who puffed out his chest on the Monday in the tea room telling everybody who would listen (and many who wouldn’t) just how much he knew about the game. I hate weekends like that!!

 

Essendon V Western Bulldogs Etihad Friday night

 

The Bombers had two wins in a row compliments of the game they had against Richmond but this will be a bit harder for them. The Bulldogs seem to be getting it together a little better and they will have too much talent for the young Bombers to counter. Barry Hall missed a suspension bullet after almost choking North Melbourne’s Thompson to death and the Bulldog’s Lake scored a record number of points for Fantasy Football players with his 22 marks and 3000 possession game. I love listening to the umpires’ votes on Brownlow night when we have performances like that. Expect Lake to get 1 or no votes – trust me.

 

Western Bulldogs by 36

 

Geelong V Melbourne Skilled Saturday

 

As well as the Demons are travelling they just will not be able to match it against the Cats. In addition the game is being played on the Cats litter tray and it looks like an easy win to Geelong. I read the Demons’ preparation schedule for this fixture and they have decided to head down the highway the day before the game. Good idea. If they can get the umpires to agree to start early and their fans to turn up Saturday morning they might get a few goals on the board before the Cats run onto the ground and the early start will help avoid Melbourne being beaten by 100 plus points.

 

Geelong by 66

 

Port Adelaide V Richmond AAMi Saturday

The Power let one slip last week in Darwin against Melbourne but they will be out to atone for that loss when they come up against the bottom of the ladder team Richmond. Cousins returned for the Tigers last week but Ben is no match winner. Rumour has it that he is purposely playing poorly so that there is no comparison to his Brownlow days with West Coast and hence avoid any press at all. It’s working. The Power might kick the sweep.

 

Port Adelaide by 54

 

Brisbane Lions V Collingwood Gabba Saturday

The Pies copped a flogging from Geelong last week and it’s lucky they meet an out of form Brisbane. This won’t be easy and it will take Collingwood a while to shake the Lions but they should prevail. It’s hard to work out how the Pies can kick such huge scores week in week out and then be restricted to 6 goals against the Cats. Brisbane has their own problems with the main players missing in their backline and Brown not moving as well as he could justifying suspicions that he is carrying some sort of groin injury. Fev kicked 5 last week so he’s doing okay. The Lions will find it hard to hold the Collingwood forwards who had a sloppy day last Friday but will turn that all around this week – one hopes.

 

Collingwood by 29

 

St Kilda V Adelaide Etihad Saturday

The Saints showed a bit of form last week in the second half against the Eagles and they will work to carry that form into this game against the struggling Crows. The Goodwin retirement may be the start of an exodus at Adelaide who probably need a bit of a clean out anyway. It doesn’t help their cause in this game. To add to that statement Tyson Edwards has called it quits today which kind of makes me psychotic...er.... psychic I mean. The Saints just keep counting the weeks until Nick Reiwoldt is back and until then they need to hang in there.

 

St Kilda by 22

 

Hawthorn V Sydney MCG Sunday

 

The unexpected Hawks win against Carlton last week has thrown a spanner into this tip although the form of Sydney over the past few weeks has been ordinary. The winner will be the team that plays the least ordinary on the day. Could be a draw but home ground should get the Hawks across the line. What we have here is a bit like two ships passing in the night. One ship is losing form and the other is gaining form. But we said that about Hawthorn so many times this year and they have continued to disappoint. A Sydney win would not surprise and $10 on a draw with impossible odds is not a silly bet.

 

Hawthorn by 19

 

Carlton V West Coast Eagles Etihad Sunday

 

Carlton really had the blues last week with an insipid display against Hawthorn. The Eagles performed no better in their home match against the Saints. Both teams need to lift their rating just to make the game interesting but it’s hard to pick the Eagles in any game let alone at an away venue. Judd reckons this is just another game and he’s right. He would not know more than a handful of players at West Coast anymore. The Blues will have to knuckle down in this game because the Eagles don’t mind Etihad as a venue really. It won’t be a walkover for the Blues but they should get the 4 premiership points.

 

Carlton by 31

 

Fremantle V North Melbourne Subiaco Sunday

North Melbourne’s Thompson pushing guys over when they are doing up their bootlaces and Fremantle’s Ballantyne pinching guys behind play should make for quite a spectacle for the children that turn up to watch the game. Unfortunately for North the adult spectators will witness another Docker win to put them firmly in 3^rd place on the ladder. Freo are making a lot less mistakes in their games this season but even when they do stuff up they seem tobe able to maintain pressure on the opposition enough to cause a turnover and regain possession. Pavlich in an ordinary team was pretty good. Pavlich in a winning team is a superstar and his form is another reason the Dockers are doing so well. A team playing on confidence like this will be hard to beat particularly for a young team like North with a developing squad.

 

Fremantle by 40

 

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[AFL-Review] Round 9

AFL Review Round 9

Geelong  12.14.86 Defeated Collingwood 6.14 50

The Magpies will need to go back to the drawing board, lick their feathers and work out what they need to do to be competitive against the Cats who showed why they will be hard to beat in the grand final again this year. The Pies lost all their momentum half way through the third quarter when it seemed they had the Cats in the bag, so to speak. But poor kicking resulted in no scoreboard pressure and in the wink of an eye, which covered about 7 minutes, Geelong had posted 3 quick goals to be ahead. And it didn’t stop there. Again Collingwood, who had kicked over 120 points in every game since the loss to the Saints, could manage only 6 goals for the match. Oh woe is me says Mick and we all nodded our heads. Mooney in his 200^th game kicked 3 goals for the Cats as did Stokes in his second game back from suspension for something to do with drugs so let’s assume he will be tested. The Collingwood forwards were shocking and it was Dayne Beams who kicked most of their score with 4 goals and some near misses. Along with Beams,  Swan, Shaw and Johnson were good for Collingwood and Kelly, Bartels and Ling played well for the Cats. Sob.

 

Western Bulldogs 20.7 127 Defeated North Melbourne 7.15.47

 

As predicted the Bulldogs had far too much class for the young North team. The game was over at half time with a scoreline of 11.1 to 2.10, same number of shots and 8 goals the difference. Barry Hall found a bit of bother after some off ball niggling by Thompson and both will face suspension by the tribunal tonight no doubt. Bazza could cop 4 weeks they reckon and while the actions by Scott Thompson were questionable it’s still a case of Hall having to control temper outbursts. Barry kicked 3 goals for the Bullies and Hill kicked 4 and best players were Cooney, Griffen and Lake the latter having 41 disposals including 22 marks.  Rawlings and Harvey were the best of a bad bunch for North who will probably come out and win next week as is usual for them this season.

 

Fremantle 14.16.100 Defeated Sydney 9.9.63

 

Much to everybody’s joy it seems the Dockers are the real thing this year. Somebody needs to explain the 180 degree turn around in the form of the Swans after round 6. Freo heave ho. The Dockers have won on the road 3 times this season already which is a major change to their fortunes since the club started and they play with a confidence that belies their years. Another hoodoo has been summarily dispatched with Fremantle winning at the SCG, something they had not achieved in 14 years. Swan’s coach Roos would have to be scratching his head at the form his team is displaying of late and the prediction that Sydney would not make the finals is ringing true. Pavlich is continuing his stellar form and kicked 3 for the Dockers to keep him on top of the goal kicking list and along with Hasleby and Bradley was in the best players for Freo. Malceski, Kirk and Jack were prominent for Sydney in another disappointing performance.

 

Essendon 19.16.130 Defeated Richmond 14.11.95

 

The Bombers have done well with two wins in a row and while Richmond is not a big scalp putting together consecutive wins has been difficult for Essendon. The Tigers can take heart with the score they kicked. Essendon certainly improved their finals’ prospects with that win. Hille played another good game with 3 goals and 26 disposals plus 22 hitouts, good enough to win the Dreamtime match best on ground award and for Richmond Reiwoldt kicked 6 goals. Essendon was 5 goals ahead at the end of the first quarter, a margin they kept for the rest of the game.               

 

Melbourne 17.9.11 Defeated Port Adelaide 16.14.110

 

The Demons seem to enjoy giving their fans heart attacks with some close games. They turned around a 1 point loss to Collingwood with a 1 point win against Port Adelaide. Very hard to work the Power out who seem to get enjoyment from losing the ones they are tipped to win. Port was down by 6 goals starting the last quarter and in the last stanza they almost doubled their score and almost pinched the game off the Demons who had played very well up to that point. When the Power edged ahead by 5 points with 3 minutes to go everybody but Jim Stynes thought the Dees had let another one slip. But to their credit they hung on to win by a solitary point with the ball in the Port forward area. It was an exciting last quarter. Miller kicked 5 for the Demons and Bennell 4. Boak was the main contributor for Port with 3. Green played a great game for Melbourne and in the end he was the difference.

 

Adelaide 13.15.93 Defeated Brisbane 11.15.81

 

You would not have thought the Crows could win a game this season apart from beating Richmond but, they found a way to give their supporters heart and inflict a loss on Brisbane who have slumped from finals possibilities to maybes. The Brown Fevola kicked 5 for the Lions but they all came from Fev’s boot as Browny had a dirty day, ask Vossie. If you had watched the Crows play any of those first 5 games you would be forgiven to pick against them even at home but Brisbane just did not have the talent on the paddock to match the Crows. It was nip and tuck and a close finish with a surprising result.  Douglas and Dangerfield booted 3 each for Adelaide with van Berlow  their best player and McGrath and Banfield were prominent for the sliding Lions.

 

Hawthorn 16.14.110 Defeated Carlton 8.12.60

 

The final score line makes no sense at all considering the past form of these two teams. It’s results like this that give tipping a bad name. Picking teams based on form is hazardous enough but this result really takes the cake. And it wasn’t even a close game. The Blues were 6 goals down at half time and didn’t improve. The few, paltry goals for Carlton came from Henderson (3) and Robinson (2). Buddy Franklin was back in form with 5 for the Hawks and his mate Roughead kicked 3. Their combined score almost beat Carlton’s total for the day. The result certainly makes for interesting thought processes when selecting these teams in future. Bah! Humbug!

 

St Kilda 13.13.91 Defeated West Coast 8.8.56

 

A few minutes into the 3^rd quarter it looked like the Eagles by how much. 10 minutes later the Saints snatch the lead by a point and after that West Coast folded as the Saints piled on the goals to win comfortably. It’s probably true that an umpire doesn’t change the course of a game unless he gives a suspect free kick in front of goal with 10 seconds to go and the that team wins the game from that kick. But, when the ball was kicked out of bounds on the full in the West Coast forward area and the game was in the balance the decision, or lack of it by the boundary umpire, enabled the Saints to move the ball into their forward line and kick a goal I felt was a momentous occasion. By the reaction of the Eagles’ supporters I expect they did as well. Selwood and Priddis did okay for the Eagles with McKinley kicking 4 of the West Coast’s 8 goals and for the Saints the mercurial Milne kicked 3. Hayes and Del Santo were the best for St Kilda and in particular Lenny Hayes in the second half was spectacularly effective.

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[AFL-Preview] Round 9

Preview Round 9

Well tipsters teams like St Kilda, Essendon, Melbourne, West Coast Eagles and at times North Melbourne continue to provide us with a challenge when we come to making that selection. Inconsistency in form makes the job that little bit harder but not as hard or as impossible when we have total form reversals from one week to the next. The beauty of teams like Geelong, Collingwood and Richmond is that you are almost guaranteed a tipping point when you select them, or, in Richmond’s case, ignore them. So, it will be with great interest to see how the experts and the average tipster (and there isn’t a lot of difference) will approach the big game tomorrow night.

Some more drug stuff to spook the AFL but you really have to ask the question about some of the players and what goes through their minds when they succumb to the temptation of drugs. You play AFL, you train all week, play on the weekend, you have the adoration of fans young and old, everybody wants to talk to you when you go out.......I’d be pretty high on that. Go figure.

Quite a few tricky games this week tipsters so be alert. Good luck.

 

Collingwood V Geelong MCG Friday

 

This is certainly the game of the round and the 2^nd consecutive week that the Pies have been involved in top of the ladder match. Both teams are playing very well and we all expect a close, pressure game. This game will prove the Magpies are the real thing. Whether it is actually a preview of the Grand Final is debatable but it’s a fair call based on the form. The Cats pulverised the Pies last year so one hopes that will not be repeated in this game. Both Collingwood and Geelong know how to apply pressure and the scores these two teams have kicked in the last couple of games show potent forward lines. Swan and Ablett might get 80 possessions between them and it is assumed Ling will take him or Pendlebury. Too excited to write any more.

 

Collingwood by 11

 

North Melbourne V Western Bulldogs Etihad Saturday

 

North is doing well, make no mistake, and they will bring it right up to the Bulldogs but don’t expect the result to reflect effort is better than class. Scott has his charges playing reasonable football but up against the experience and bigger bodies of the Bulldogs they will struggle after half time.

 

Western Bulldogs by 39

 

Sydney V Fremantle SCG Saturday

 

The Swans have suffered 2 big losses in a row. Swans captain Kirk has decided to retire at the end of the season and Johnson of Freo has decided to take a 6 week break effective immediately. Neither means anything to the make ups of the teams but both events will affect the mental motivation of both teams. Freo has been travelling well but it’s been a while since they have won at the SCG. Pav is on fire and so is Adam Goodes for the Swans. Sandilands will have it all his own way in the ruck but the Docker small men have to capitalise. Should be a close game but the Swans need to get back into the winning circle and with the home ground advantage they should prevail.

 

Sydney by 18

 

Essendon V Richmond MCG Saturday

 

The Tigers came close last week to winning their first game and Essendon did their usual mind numbing form reversal to beat the Saints. Regardless of all that, it is difficult, nay impossible, to pick Richmond.

 

Essendon by 33

 

Melbourne V Port Adelaide TIO Saturday

 

This is the Darwin game with Melbourne giving away a home game to take the AFL to the NT. It’s time to come off the Demon support base and look realistically at form. The Power faded in the last quarter against the Blues. They might do the same this week but expect them to be well ahead at that time. In fact Port Adelaide has great experience at this ground so it’s almost a home game for them.

 

Port Adelaide by 32

 

Adelaide V Brisbane AAMI Sunday

 

The result of this match is almost impossible to tip. The Lions are playing poorly and the Crows are playing even worse than that. The game is at AAMI but that hasn’t meant a lot for Adelaide so far this year. I don’t think the Crows can kick as many goals as Brisbane. Voss is putting the screws on Fevola to participate more and against a weaker Adelaide side the Brown Fevola combination might get the chance to kick their normal 8. Far too many goals for an Adelaide team that has kicked over 100 points only once this season. Johncock and Vince were suspended for having a couple too many at the local and Burton has a knee problem – again. Not looking good for the Crows at all. Fortunately for them the Lions seem to have come off the boil.

 

Brisbane by 7

 

Carlton V Hawthorn Etihad Sunday

 

Ummm, why is this game at Etihad and not the MCG? Based on form the selection here is the easy one this week. The Blues have been in rather good form of late and although they don’t seem to like playing the Hawks in the past the contrast in form between the two sides so far this season doesn’t give you much confidence to think that Hawthorn will be able to win this game to turn their season around.

 

Carlton by 41

 

West Coast V St Kilda Subiaco Sunday

 

The Saints have lost 3 of their last 4. West Coast has won 2 of their last 3. The game is at Subiaco. Every indicator points to an Eagles win.

 

St Kilda by 15

 

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[AFL-Review] Round 8

Collingwood 20.13.133 Defeated Fremantle 15.7.97

The Dockers are having a great start to the season but they are not yet in the same class as the Magpies who are notching some big scores and convincing victories particularly over the past 4 weeks. Freo were not disgraced, just outclassed.  The game got pretty close by half time with just 10 points separating the teams after Freo fought back from about 5 goals down. But the Collingwood pressure caused Fremantle turnovers and half way through the last quarter the Pies were 9 goals up before they allowed the Dockers 3 easy goals to make the final margin 6. Cloke was the dominant forward in the game with 5 and Didak kicked 3 himself and played his usual clever game. Hill played well and Sandilands dominated but did not get the results for his efforts. The Pies face the Cats next week.

 

Western Bulldogs 14.17.101 Defeated Sydney 9.9.63

 

The difference between the two teams was Barry Hall who kicked 5 for the Doggies and they were just too good for Sydney and they will be disappointed with that loss.  The Bulldogs kicked 5 in the second quarter to set up a 29 point break at the big break then kicked another 5 in the 3^rd to have an unbeatable lead going into the last. Considering the form both these teams showed in the past 3 weeks the size of the defeat was a surprise.

 

West Coast 10.15.75 Defeated Melbourne 6.10.46

 

A surprise result even for Eagles’ supporters but the win was comprehensive and Melbourne was pretty ordinary. Enough evidence to suggest tipsters might have to reconsider their thoughts on these two teams. The Demons and the Eagles were level at half time but when a team kicks just 1 solitary goal in a half of football as Melbourne did a loss is inevitable. Two in a row for the Eagles and the local papers are talking finals. Apart from Richmond West Coast will find more wins pretty hard but who knows?

 

Geelong 24.11.155 Defeated Brisbane 10.14.74

 

The Cats had the game in the bag by quarter time, made sure of it by half time and were far too good for the Lions who are starting to look ordinary. This game was well and truly over by half time with the Cats already 6 goals ahead but they did not take their foot off the accelerator and just kept kicking goals to give the Lions a mother of a hiding by 81 points. Brisbane will need a major regroup or the finals will be a pipe dream. The Brown Fevola kicked 4 but Johnson booted 6 for the Cats, Hawkins 4 and Mooney 3, enough to beat the Lions on their own. Geelong plays Collingwood in a grand final rehearsal next week.

 

North Melbourne 12.12.84 Defeated Adelaide 11.9.75

 

The final score flatters the Crows who were 9 goals down at 3 quarter time. Adelaide came rushing home in the last quarter kicking 46 to 1 but still fell short by 9 points. Strange game. It’s true the game was over by half time, and by 3 quarter time it looked like it was going to be a massacre but for reasons unknown Adelaide decided to play football with a bit of commitment, a bit like they did last season. Is North in the 8? Wow?

 

Hawthorn 13.11.89 Defeated Richmond 13.8.86

 

Richmond nearly won their first game and Hawthorn almost lost their 7^th in a row. Apart from that not a lot happened. The two bottom teams battled it out right to the end and based on that performance it is hard to see either of them anywhere near the top half of the ladder and really hard to see Richmond winning a game at all. But they might and they certainly will improve as the season moves forward but it’s going to be a long hard year for the Tigers....and the Hawks.

 

Carlton 17.16.118 Defeated Port Adelaide 14.8.92

 

A last quarter blitz by the Blues was good enough to knock the Power off.  Tight all day and at 3 quarter time Port Adelaide supporters would have been reasonably confident that their team would go on with it. Alas no.  Betts kicked all his goals last week so no contribution this week. They put 5 guys on him and forgot about Kreuzer who kicked 3. O’hAilpin keeps kicking goals and slotted another 3 this week. Salopek for Port ditto. All these wins and losses in the middle of the ladder just keep making it a bit tighter.

 

Essendon  20.13.133 Defeated St Kilda 15.7.97

 

The Jekyll Hyde form of Essendon continues to bewilder tipsters and supporters and must confuse their coach Knights as well. The Saints are really struggling with 2 losses in a row. Wonder where they will finish this season? Without Reiwoldt there will be no grand final appearance this year. The Saints are having just too many problems covering his loss at the moment. Essendon? I have no idea whether they will win from one week to the next. Neither do they.

 

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[AFL-Preview] Round 8

AFL Preview Round 8

 

Just the 6 correct last week tipsters but I changed a couple of tips in a newspaper competition and scored the 8 there. Talk about shooting up the ladder! I improved about 115,000 places with the 8 correct and sit in the top 2 percentile. For a week anyway. Apologies for not giving you the same selections.  At the start of the season it was easier picking winners and losers but as teams improve and others fall prey to injuries to star players it is getting as difficult to pick a winner between the middle rating teams as it is to find a politician not rorting the system. Well actually they seem easy to find but successful prosecution is another story. AFL news seems to be centred round Fremantle, in WA it is anyway. And the purple haze is gently wending its way east and is hovering above Hyden (600 kms east of Perth) and should reach us in Norseman by tomorrow night. The Fremantle Collingwood game is sold out, as expected, but the crowd make up is expected to be 30,000 Docker supporters, 12,000 Collingwood supporters and the rest is made up of disgruntled Eagle supporters hoping to see a Freo defeat, something West Coast supporters are used to. It’s a funny game. No, cricket and American Football are funny games, AFL is a great game! I mean who would have thought in their wildest dreams that a Collingwood versus Fremantle game would be the weekend’s blockbuster with the winner being clear ladder leader? I guess Collingwood fans can believe it but honestly, Fremantle supporters are living the dream. The tipping game has been a tad more difficult this season and this can be seen with top scores around the competitions of 37 – 40, well below last year’s leaders who hovered around the 43 – 45 mark after round 7. The fickleness, if there be such a word, of tipping comps is their main attraction. That’s why we join as many as we can so we can hedge our bets based on fickle form of AFL teams week in week out. It’s hard to tip teams who tell us that the game is played 90% above the shoulders because how many of us are privy to the mental, motivational state of each team before they run out onto the ground? Looking at the tipping scores, I would say not many of us. I have found that I am now falling back into tipping from the heart, that clueless gut feeling tip that carries no weight at the time of submitting the selection but screams “EXPERT” when the tip comes in. Good luck, it’s a particularly hard week of matches.

 

Fremantle V Collingwood at Subiaco Friday Night

 

An expert wrote in the paper that this was the most important game in the history of the Fremantle football club. Really it’s just another win for Collingwood on their way to the premiership. That is the statement of not only a Collingwood supporter but somebody who knows a thing or two from the inside. I rang Mick to ask him how the boys were travelling and after a few terse comments to me before he realised I wasn’t the local press he revealed that the lads were hot to trot. I checked with Eddie after chatting with Malthouse and after Maguire realised I had no financial connection with the Melbourne Storm he also said that the team was a sure thing. Freo coach Harvey is using the MUP (Malthouse Undermining Ploy) to unsettle the Pies with questions on Magpie blocking tactics but he should be using his time more rewardingly by working out how his team will win the game. In the usual spirit of public interest the TV station is providing the residents of Perth with a half hour delayed telecast. Jolly decent I thought as I will not miss an episode of Home and Away.

 

Collingwood by 29

 

Western Bulldogs V Sydney at Manuka Saturday

 

The Bulldogs got a big fright from the Demons last week and just won while the Swans copped a hiding from Geelong. The team that mentally recovers best from their game last week will win. The match is being played on neutral ground in Canberra so there’s another factor to consider. You can see the prediction here will be pure guesswork. Barry Hall will be playing against his old side and it would be funny to see him snot a former team mate – just for old time’s sake. Maybe not. The confidence of the Swans took a hammering last week and it might be hard mentally for the team to get back up well enough to take on the Western Bulldogs who, by the way, will be in a positive mental state after that lucky win against the Demons in the dying minutes of the match. I can’t see a score blow out here so the game will be close all day. I’m thinking the Doggies will prevail.

 

Western Bulldogs by 12

 

Melbourne V West Coast Eagles at MCG Saturday

 

Can the Eagles win away from home against an ever improving Melbourne? Can anybody come forward and make a case for the Eagles to win this game? Even when the Demons were really bad last year and the year before they still beat the Eagles at the MCG. Kennedy bagged 6 for West Coast last week and has been in reasonable form so far this season. Nat and Nui are doing well in the ruck, improving week to week and ably supported by Cox who is starting to shrug off preseason injury. It should be a good match up with those guys against  Jamar who is rucking well for the Dees. I tipped the Eagles for a win last week but am real reluctant to do so this week. The Demons should win their 4^th.

 

Melbourne by 17

 

Brisbane V Geelong at the Gabba Saturday

 

The Brisbane crowd will be in for two consecutive weeks of disappointment because on current form The Lions should not win against the Cats. And they won’t. Ablett was amazing last week for the Cats against the Swans. 38 disposals and 3 goals. Don’t know what’s happened to the Lions over the past few weeks but 3 losses in a row has seen them drop from the 8. I tend to think the misery will continue for them this week because the Cats have the players to hold the Brown Fevola to a handful of goals if any and they are also lethal in attack with a couple of weeks of high scores. Missing credentialed players in the backline won’t help the Lions’ cause. No worries on mental motivation here.

 

Geelong by 33

 

North Melbourne V Adelaide at Etihad Saturday

 

The Crows finally cracked it for a win last week although the opposition was Richmond. They will find this harder because North will come back from the Collingwood defeat as they did from the Saints loss. The game could be a draw – it will be close. The selection here will be based on form and the form shown by Adelaide is not convincing enough to make me think they can beat North. The Crows have won one game against Richmond.

 

North Melbourne by 10

 

Richmond V Hawthorn at the MCG Sunday

 

What is the toughest prediction to make in AFL matches this season? Well one is to predict just when the Tigers will win a game and another is to tip the Hawks to win their next game. Just can’t tick the Richmond box this week again.

 

Hawthorn by 41

 

Port Adelaide V Carlton at AAMI on Sunday

 

The Power had a darn close win against the Bombers last week and just a couple of days ago Carlton really gave the Saints a football lesson. This should be a good game and the fact that it is being played at AAMI makes it tough to call the Blues as winners. Apart from that big loss against The Pies Carlton has beaten Geelong and St Kilda, last year’s grand finalists. The return of Judd has added strength, leadership and experience to the Blues. Port Adelaide’s season resume does not look as impressive especially the effort against Geelong in the second half.  Tredrea is a bit of a loss for the Power but Port has the oomph to go with Carlton for most of the game. Premiership quarter, the third, will decide it.

 

Carlton by 15

 

St Kilda V Essendon at Etihad Sunday

 

Can the Saints kick enough goals to win this game or will their backline just not allow Essendon to kick enough goals to win this game. Probably yes on both counts. This is one of the perfect examples of an injury to a critical player having a negative impact on that team. The loss of Reiwoldt has meant that the Saints need to change the game plan a bit and the fact that Kozzi ain’t firing is not helping. When a team can roost the ball into the half forward line with Nick a better than even chance of marking the ball you can use midfielders and crumbing forwards to great effect. Take that target away and the Saints need to modify. The Bombers’ back line, apart from Fletcher, is a little weak so there is an opportunity for the Saints to kick a reasonable score. 115 points should do it. You have to stick with the Saints particularly when Essendon’s form is distinctly patchy.

 

St Kilda by 27

 

 

 

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[AFL-Review] Round 7

Western Bulldogs 10.10.70 Defeated Melbourne 9.12.66

The Bulldogs were very lucky to win this game as was Melbourne unlucky to lose. 2 goals in the dying minutes by Lake (Burleigh) Griffen for the Bullies got them their 4^th win. The Demons are 3 -3 but for a smidgin of luck they would be 5 – 2. There is a little more joy for Melbourne this season and teams that approach games against them thinking it will be a cakewalk better watch out. The Western Bulldogs seem to be doing a Collingwood. Reasonable form in the first part of the season and down to serious business into the last 7 rounds. Bulldog fans hope so because at times during this game they looked average.

 

Port Adelaide 17.7.109 Defeated Essendon 16.10.106

This game was 1 point closer than the Friday night match and all day the two teams went goal for goal. Port was able to sneak ahead in the last 3 minutes and hold on making for a very happy Power coach and an unhappy Bomber coach. Essendon need some consistency in form, not only to give a little hope to supporters but it would be a great help to tipsters as well. They finished in the 8 last year but the general consensus of opinion was that they were pretenders which was proved true with their quick exit from the finals. They won’t make it this year. Port have a harder edge to their game and early season form indicates that they will make the 8. Folks in SA will need some joy this season.

 

West Coast 15.12.102 Defeated Hawthorn 14.10.94

The Eagles were 25 points up near the end of the 3^rd quarter and Hawthorn came back to be 7 points down at 3 quarter time. West Coast was up again by 25 points into the 4^th quarter and the Hawks kicked 4 of the last 5 goals to almost pinch the game. Curtains for the Hawks? Lifeline for the Eagles? How did Hawthorn win a premiership in 2008? They will struggle this season as well to make the final 8 as they are average. West Coast need some serious skills improvements because against better sides, that’s the about 13 of them, they will struggle. Final 8 for them is a pipe dream at the moment regardless of what Woosha says.

 

Collingwood 23.19.157 Defeated North Melbourne 14.7.91

The game went as expected and the Pies built on their half time lead to win by 11 goals in a canter. Collingwood are looking pretty strong at the moment and North are well into a rebuilding phase. Pies supporters are getting excited because on current form, and at the end of this round, Collingwood are clearly on top of the ladder. If there was a bet preseason that said Fremantle and Collingwood would be playing off for clear ladder leadership in round 8 I would have put my wallet in my pocket and walked away. Yet, next week, this is what is happening. Last night there were only 546 ticktes available for the game. The purple haze versus the black and white army. And North Melbourne? Well let’s see where they are in 2013?

 

Fremantle 15.23.113 Defeated Brisbane 15.10.100

The score line flatters the Lions who were kept in the game only due to poor kicking for goal by the Dockers. The game would have been beyond the Lions if Freo had kicked straighter. Great win for Fremantle and the 3^rd consecutive loss for the Lions. McPharlin and Tarrant were able to keep the lid on Brown Fevola and that was a telling match up. Others did bob up for goals but goal front misses by Freo really kept the Lions in the game, even with the last quarter surge. The beauty of the way the Dockers play is that it helps to build confidence and when a team plays with confidence some amazing things can happen. Freo look like final 8 while Brisbane will be on the fringe.

 

Geelong 19.12.126 Defeated Sydney 9.5.59

This was a game definitely played in 2 halves as the Swans were doing quite well against the Cats up until then. After half time Geelong applied pressure and class and really clawed the feathers off the Swans in a show of absolute power. Who’s kicking the goals for the Cats? Podsiardly!! Yep. Sydney should still make the final 8 in a struggle with 5 other teams and Geelong will play Collingwood in the Grand Final.

 

Adelaide 15.14.104 Defeated Richmond 7.12.54

If you watched this game you should have had your head in your hands as error after error and turnovers due to poor skills dominated the game. The Tigers were down by just 5 points at 3 quarter time in a low scoring game. In the last quarter Richmond continued playing the same style but the Crows almost turned into birds of paradise kicking a bigger score in this stanza than they had managed for the previous 3 quarters. Another thrashing  ensued for the Tigers.

 

Carlton 20.9.129 Defeated St Kilda 9.14.68

At the end of the game St Kilda’s final score was equal to the score that Carlton had kicked at half time. The Blues did come back on the field in the second half and almost doubled their score in that half. If you have basic maths you will realize that Carlton thrashed the Saints. Amen.  I guess if you look at the scores the Saints have managed over the past couple of weeks you would have to ask just how would they be able to kick a winning score? Well the answer was simple. They couldn’t.

 

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[AFL-Preview] Round 7

AFL Preview Round 7

 

At the risk of being  accused of plagiarism, I, like Dennis Cometti,  have been reading the after match, pre match, middle of the match comments of John Worsfold and I am happy to report that it seems I am not the only perplexed reader. I f I was a West Coast Eagles supporter I would be totally confused about just where the Eagles are going this year considering they are sitting bottom four with just one win from six games because if I had really believed what Whoosha was saying I would be thinking that we should be sitting where the Fremantle Dockers are at the moment. Yes I do believe it is a great thing to be continually building up the team’s losses, building belief that they are improving but the results in reality are nowhere near that expected belief. At exactly what stage of the season will West Coast be playing the football that Worsfold describes post match? They play Hawthorn this week at Subiaco and both these teams are in the same boat. That is they cannot play as well as we would all be made to believe. It’s not the fact that both these teams are sitting 1 – 5 it’s the level of football they are playing to have achieved that result. Poor, very poor, only a smidgen better than Adelaide and Richmond. Maybe I will eat my words at season end but there will have to be a dramatic improvement from these two teams to make me want to reach for the steak knife.

Only 4 points in the tipping last week, one better than was predicted by one of my readers, but it is getting a little difficult to confidently tip based on form. The horse has not quite bolted with 16 rounds to go and plenty of time to catch up but the animal is starting to get a bit skittish. I was going to say I bet I get more right than wrong from now but with the AFL cracking down on betting on the footy I won’t. Some tough games to pick this week but hey, that’s the game.

 

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs MCG Friday

Perhaps we all got a bit carried away with Melbourne winning 3 in a row but tipsters need to be a little more logical in this game. Selection should be the Western Bulldogs without a doubt. Brad Johnson is out injured but he has not been there for most of the games this season so it won’t  make that much of a difference. Jurrah – who has been out for a while - and Petterd are the major losses for the Dees but in truth Melbourne is not in the same class as The Bulldogs. Rocket’s mob will win this on the bit.

 

Western Bulldogs by 43

 

Essendon V Port Adelaide Etihad Saturday

 

You will need to flip a coin, not so much to pick a winner, but to decide on the form the Bombers are going to bring into the game. If Essendon play like they did against Carlton they will surely win. If they play like they did against Fremantle they will surely lose. Port has been a lot more consistent although the game is away. Prismall is back in for the Bombers and Motlop returns for the Power. As much as I would like to see the Bombers win their inconsistent form is a major concern. They could win but I will stick with form......unfortunately.

 

Port Adelaide by 11

 

West Coast Eagles V Hawthorn Subiaco Saturday

 

Both teams are playing so badly that the fairest result is a draw. Some injuries to both teams won’t help their cause and they will be equally desperate to get a win on the board. When in doubt pick the home team even when you are unconvinced. West Coast’s Embley has been suspended? I missed that, he must have said “Darn it” to the umpire. Because the Hawks have announced that they will go the muscle the opening quarter will probably be a bloodbath. Good old fashioned footy. Whoosha remains on a positive bent, misplaced but necessary and Clarkson is demanding answers. Who cares?

 

West Coast by 7

 

Collingwood V North Melbourne MCG Saturday

 

North is rolling along quite nicely with 3 wins from their last 4 games but Collingwood is showing some pretty awesome form. The Pies will find this tough but they should prevail comfortably in the end. Wellingham and Fraser out for the Pies are big losses but O’Bree and perhaps Wood are adequate replacements. North is looking okay but this is a whole different ball game to the opposition they have played in the last 4 weeks.

 

Collingwood by 39

 

Brisbane V Fremantle Gabba Saturday

 

The Lions have lost the last two games and will be wanting to get their season back on track. This is one helluva road trip for the Dockers and while they are playing irresistible footy they might find this a bit tougher. While Fremantle have won 5 games they have beaten only one team in the 8 and that is Geelong – mind you a pretty good win at that. Pavlich and Hill will be hard for the Lions to stop and their new boy Barlow is the find of the season. Tarrant needs to hold Fevola and somebody needs to hold Brown. But with the Black, Power, Brennan, Rich and Banfield and the game at the Gabba the Lions may be just good enough to hold Freo out.

 

Brisbane by 22

 

Geelong V Sydney Skilled Sunday

 

This should be a cracker of a game as both teams are playing winning football. The Swans have been a bit of a surprise packet in the opening 6 rounds losing just the one game and Geelong’s training run against Richmond last week will have them champing at the bit to lower Sydney’s colours. There is a definite home ground advantage with just a handful of South Melbourne supporters from years ago able to make the trip. The Cats have lost Otten for a few weeks which is a big blow but they have Ablett back in the side. That kind of makes up for the out. Geelong has won their past 19 games in a row at Skilled and that stat might just be enough for tipsters to pick the Cats. I’m comfortable with it.

 

Geelong by 29

 

Adelaide V Richmond AAMI Sunday

 

Neither team has won a game but my vote is for the Tigers to “win” the wooden spoon. This game will see them anchored to the bottom of the ladder because even the Crows are not playing that poorly. Adelaide supporters will turn up to see a rare Crow’s win this year.  No changes to the Adelaide side, probably because there isn’t anybody else available. The players at Adelaide approached the coach and stated they no longer wanted training on the day before the game. Just something a bit different, albeit unusual. Richmond plays like they have been hit by a tram pre-season so the inclusion of Polak makes sense!!

 

Adelaide by 33

 

St Kilda V Carlton Etihad Monday

 

The AFL experiment to play Monday night football starts here and it’s not a public holiday. Carlton did okay against the Pies but in the end it was a 9 goal defeat. The Saints had a confidence booster against the Doggies in a last gasp win and they would not want to let this game get away from them. The Blues are good enough to cause an upset here but the Saints should hold them out. Let’s assume the Saints can kick more than 100 points this week which they will have to do to beat the Blues.

 

St Kilda by 14

 

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[AFL-Review] Round 6

St Kilda 7.7.49 Defeated Western Bulldogs 6.10.46

Less than a total of 100 points kicked in a game of football. You could say the defences were on top except for a short period of about 5 minutes in the last quarter during which the Saints basically doubled their score and won by a nose. Giansiracusa played another great game for the Bulldogs and Montagna and Hayes racked up possessions midfield for the Saints. For those football lovers who live between Port Augusta and Norseman I am sure the TV stations apologise for not providing a telecast at a reasonable time. The Saints are at 5 – 1 but the Western Bulldogs are now at 3 – 3 for the early part of the season which is disappointing considering they were being touted as premiership possibilities. The Saints still are formidable opposition without Reiwoldt.

 

North Melbourne 15.14.104 Defeated Melbourne 12.6.78

 

The Demon’s bubble was burst rather surprisingly, for some, by North who have won 3 of their last 4 - as has Melbourne. The games between those teams in the middle of the ladder are proving difficult to pick. After a tight first quarter North kicked away by 5 goals by half time. Melbourne supporters got excited in the 3^rd quarter as the Demons came back with a 6 goals to 2 goal effort and a 14 point deficit going into the last was well within their capabilities. But you have to hand it to North Melbourne who kept at it and outscored the Dees in the last to win by 26 points. Green was the best forward for Melbourne with 4 and Wright and Hale kicked 3 for the Shinboners.

 

Port Adelaide 14.13.97 Defeated Adelaide 10.14.74

 

Well the game was anybody’s heading into the last quarter but the Crows were able to show us just why they will be hard to pick to win more than a few games this year. The Power looks a little tougher this season and with almost a handful of wins it looks like they might take Adelaide’s place in the Finals. It was an Adelaide home game and the home ground support seemed to lift the Crows and at the start of the last quarter they were in with a chance. Most of that crowd started leaving the ground 15 minutes later as the Power kicked 6 goals to 1 in the last quarter. Self belief is just not there for Adelaide and with 0 – 6 the coaching team and supporters must be wondering how this team will win a game in the season. All is not lost because the Crows will play Richmond eventually. Tippett and Porplyzia kicked 3 each for Adelaide and Robbie Gray chipped in with 5 for Port. Scott Stevens kicked 1.6 for Adelaide. Maybe a reason to hang a loss on...??

 

Essendon 15.16.106 Defeated Hawthorn 9.9.63

 

 Essendon has maintained the form of this season that sees teams thrashed one week but go on to win the following week. Inconsistent form by the Bombers indeed but it has been really consistent stuff by the Hawks who continue to lose.  Essendon, who don’t boast the greatest backline in the competition, kept the Hawks scoreless in the final quarter. Buddy Franklin had already kicked 5 for his team so his job was done but Clarkson and Hawthorn have got some serious problems. They beat Melbourne in the first game and have not won since. The Essendon form is puzzling to say the least. Impossible to pick them to win at times but unbeatable in a couple of games this year are the Bombers. Hurley booted 4 for Essendon.

 

Sydney 16.11.107 Defeated Brisbane 13.9.87

 

The Swans are playing very good football and at the moment it is an act of stupidity to tip against them. The Lions have now lost 2 in a row so for Voss and his boys it’s a reality check. Sydney will reward their outgoing coach with a place in the finals. Their form was irresistible in the first half during which they had built what proved to be an unbeatable lead. Bradshaw welcomed his former team mates back with 3 goals in the first quarter and 6 for the game – that’s two weeks in a row. The Brown Fevola kicked 8 but this was just not enough.  Bolton, Goodes and Jack played well for the Swans but it was a great team effort.

 

Geelong 24.17.161 Defeated Richmond 7.11.53

 

Some say the game was over at the end of the first quarter. It was over as soon as the bus carrying the Richmond team turned onto the Geelong freeway to head down to Skilled stadium. 7 goals to 2 points in the first quarter and I think the few Tiger supporters, the real masochists amongst them, had their gloves and boots off to work out the possible goal deficit that might greet them at the end of the game. Podsiardly, Johnson and Mooney all kicked 5 for the Cats and remember Ablett and Scarlett were not playing. Geelong lost to the Blues last week, today was a walk in the park, next week they play an in-form Sydney Swans. The Tigers really need to start looking at being a tad more competitive in their remaining games because they are beginning to lose all credibility as an AFL team.

 

Collingwood 24.11.155 Defeated Carlton 16.6.102

 

The Pies kicked almost as high a score as Geelong, but the Magpies were playing Carlton, not Richmond. It was a great win against reasonable opposition in front of 80,000 at the MCG.The result was a speed hump for the Blues but a day of glory for Collingwood. Apart from an even first quarter it was pretty well the Pies after that. They led at every change and finished with an almost 9 goal win and a very impressive score line. Judd had 39 touches for the Blues but when you lose by 53 points it’s kind of academic and I am sure Chris would agree.  Dawes, Ball and Medhurst all kicked 3 each for Collingwood while O’Halpin booted 5 for the Blues and Eddie Betts chipped in with 3. There was just a handful of Carlton supporters left half way through the last quarter as Collingwood pressed home its advantage and added a bit of percentage.

 

Fremantle 17.9.11 Defeated West Coast Eagles 10.13.73

 

Close all day but Fremantle are showing some great last quarter form this season. The Dockers are really looking like finals material and the Eagles are looking like football fodder. This was a real tough derby game with both teams giving it everything they had in the first 3 quarters but in the last it was all Freo. They slammed on 7 goals to West Coast’s 2 and it was game over. This aspect of their game has been one of the biggest changes to Fremantle’s style of footy – their last quarter. Pav kicked 5 goals for the Dockers alongside Johnson who contributed 3 which, for their half back was a pretty good effort??? Kennedy remains a rock of consistency for West Coast up forward and even though they added Lynch to the side he can’t win the game off his own boot. The Eagles are looking at a 3^rd consecutive year out of the finals but on the other hand Freo look like genuine final 8 material.

 

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